Latest news with #ENSO-neutral
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Big Country Summer Outlook: It's going to be hot & that's not clickbait!
BIG COUNTRY, Texas () – Heading into summer, especially here in the Big Country, we all know what to expect: hot and dry conditions. However, each month, the Climate Prediction Center releases a seasonal outlook that helps explain why we can expect specific weather patterns and how intense they may become. Let's take a closer look. Abilene records hottest day ever with sweltering 113°F, more record breaking heat ahead First, the Farmers' Almanac, a well-known publication that has been around since the 1800s, uses a combination of tools, including climatological patterns, sunspot activity, lunar tides, and other atmospheric data, to make seasonal predictions. According to the Summer 2025 outlook, it's expected to be hot and dry. Sure, we already had a feeling, but according to them, this summer is shaping up to be a real scorcher. That being said, they aren't expecting things to get out of hand right away. June is forecast to be near normal, which still means it'll be plenty warm around here. But once we head into July and August, that's when they're predicting the heat could really ramp up, possibly even to record-breaking levels. Last summer, we recorded one of the hottest summers on record. Nationwide, temperatures were approximately 2.5 degrees above normal, marking the hottest summer on Earth since global records began in 1880. Unfortunately, this year could be just as intense, if not hotter. As for rainfall, the Farmers' Almanac says precipitation across the country will range from near to slightly below average. For Texas, that doesn't take much. We're typically already running a deficit by the time July rolls around. Beat the Big Country heat, signs and symptoms of dehydration Looking at the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlook, they're forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Big Country from June through August. This forecast is based on several factors, one of which is the current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. ENSO is a vital climate phenomenon that influences temperatures and precipitation globally. Right now, we're in what's called an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning there's no strong El Niño or La Niña influence. That leaves the door open for other drivers, such as local soil moisture and sea surface temperatures. One thing the CPC paid close attention to this time was soil moisture. Thanks to recent rains across the Big Country, we've seen some improvement. That added moisture can help limit just how fast temperatures climb early in the season. However, if the dry trend continues, and there's a decent chance it will, it won't take long for hot and dry conditions to return. That raises the risk of worsening drought and triple-digit temperatures, especially later in the summer. How Abilene firefighters battle both fire and 100°+ temperatures Looking even farther out, there's a possibility that La Niña could start to develop by fall. If that happens, we could see the dry pattern shift slightly to the southeast; however, for now, there is still a lot of uncertainty. So, all in all, we're expecting a classic Big Country summer: hot, dry, and potentially even more intense than what we saw last year, especially in July and August when we typically hit peak heat. Make sure to practice heat safety and always be aware of the signs of heat illness. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA predicting above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season; here's why
(WGHP) – NOAA has released its outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, and the organization is predicting an above-normal 2025 . Their forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms in the 2025 hurricane season, with 6 to 10 forecast to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The outlook for this season predicts a 60% chance for an above-normal season with a 30% chance for a near-normal season and only a 10% chance for a below-normal season. Their reason for an above-normal hurricane season has to do with ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and higher activity from the West African Monsoon, which is a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of the above reasons are elements that favor tropical storm development. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures help provide more energy to fuel storm development and weak wind shear allows storms to develop without disruption. NOAA is also working on improving forecast communications for this season. The National Hurricane Center will now be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products (i.e., Tropical Storm Watch, Tropical Storm Warning) up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, which will provide communities more time to prepare. Keep in mind that NOAA's outlook is not a landfall forecast. An updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be released in early August, just before the peak of hurricane season. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season, 3-5 major hurricanes: What we know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 2025 outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year. Atlantic hurricane season 2025 has almost arrived, with a start date of June 1. NOAA says a "confluence of factors" will likely fuel tropical cyclones in coming months. The administration urged early preparation in a May 22 news release. 'In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,' said NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. 'This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens." Here's what we know. NOAA is forecasting a range of 13-19 total named storms, meaning those with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those storms, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3-5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). USA TODAY reported that, based on weather records from 1991-2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes. Before announcing the 2025 outlook, NOAA's acting administrator Laura Grimm said last year's outlook was "right on the money." NOAA explained a number of reasons why predictions are above normal for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, including "ENSO," short for "El Niño - Southern Oscillation," the overall term for the El Niño / La Niña climate cycle that affects weather worldwide. "The season is expected to be above normal - due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes," the NOAA stated in a news release. "ENSO-Neutral" means neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. According to the NOAA, there were 18 total named storms in 2024, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, in 2024. It was the nation's deadliest hurricane season since 2005 according to National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, and the third-costliest on record after 2017 and 2005. The "super-charged" season included Beryl, the earliest Category 5 on record, Milton, which caused deadly flooding and dozens of tornadoes in Florida, and, well-known by residents of WNC, Helene, which killed more than 100 people in WNC alone. More: Hurricane season 2025 is almost here: 12 things you should know Doyle Rice, USA TODAY, contributed to this report. Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@ This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: How many hurricanes will there be in 2025? NOAA hurricane outlook
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook: Here's how active this year could be without El Nino, La Nina patterns
WASHINGTON – Forecasters are closely monitoring global conditions that will influence the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which could range from near-average activity to another more-active-than-average season. On Thursday, Noaa released its annual outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Unlike institutions such as Colorado State University (CSU), which provides specific numbers for each formation category, NOAA issues a range to reflect the uncertainty in long-term forecasting. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guide: Here's What To Know About The Tropics This Year During an average year, the Atlantic Basin sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and a 30% chance of a near-average season. CSU's April outlook projected 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes – a forecast that would make the 2025 season slightly more active than historical averages. Several global climate phenomena are currently in flux, prompting forecasters to remain cautious and keep expectations broad for what to expect during the 2025 season. Over the Pacific Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is known as ENSO, has entered a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in control. ENSO-neutral years are notoriously difficult to predict, producing everything from below-average to hyperactive hurricane seasons, depending on other variables like sea-surface temperatures, wind shear and available moisture. In the Atlantic, forecasters are also watching an unusual development – cooler tropical water temperatures when compared to the same time last year. While the tropical waters still remain well above the long-term average, much of the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean islands has been running approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2024 levels. A stretch of light trade winds could reverse that trend quickly, but so far, the Main Development Region has shown reluctance to warm significantly as summer approaches. Hurricane Season 2025: Here The Names For Storms You'll See This Season Adding to the uncertainty are lesser-understood climate variables around the globe. As of late May, the Northern Hemisphere has yet to see its first tropical storm-strength cyclone of the year, which is more than a month behind typical climatology. The last time such a delay happened was in 2024, when a prolonged period of global inactivity threw off many preseason forecasts. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs for 183 days through Nov. article source: 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook: Here's how active this year could be without El Nino, La Nina patterns
Newsweek
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Newsweek
Hurricane Season 2025 Predictions: How 3 Forecasts Compare
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-normal hurricane season this year, with experts anticipating between 13 and 19 total named storms throughout the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, according to its season forecast released on Thursday. The forecast is on par with hurricane season predictions from AccuWeather and Colorado State University (CSU) issued earlier this year. Newsweek reached out to NOAA via email for comment. Why It Matters The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. On Thursday, NOAA released its 2025 hurricane forecast at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana. NOAA experts anticipate between 13 and 19 named storms forming during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes. NOAA forecasters are 70 percent confident in the ranges, the report said. File photo of a hurricane seen from space. File photo of a hurricane seen from space. buradaki/Getty What To Know NOAA's forecast anticipates a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of a normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. Forecasters are crediting continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon as reasons why the season might see more hurricanes than normal. NOAA's predictions for the coming Atlantic hurricane season are on par with other meteorological agencies. AccuWeather was one of the first agencies to release a 2025 hurricane forecast in March. It anticipates 13 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic, with seven to 10 strengthening into hurricanes. CSU meteorologists are anticipating 17 named storms, with nine strengthening into hurricanes and four strengthening into major hurricanes, which falls within NOAA's ranges. Last year, the number of storms that formed during the Atlantic hurricane season was also above average. There were 18 named storms, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. A major hurricane occurs when hurricanes are classified as a Category 3 or greater, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA stressed that its outlook is for the season and is not a landfall forecast. The outlook did not forecast which U.S. states might get hit hardest throughout the hurricane season. NOAA's predictions for the Atlantic season come a week after it issued its Pacific season forecast on May 15. In that forecast, NOAA said there was a 30 percent chance of a below-average hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean. It is possible for storms to form outside of hurricane season. However, as of Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said no tropical systems are expected in the Atlantic for the next seven days. What People Are Saying Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in a press release: "As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property." Colorado State University, in its forecast: "We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time." AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter, previously: "We expect fewer named storms this year compared to last year. The total number of storms is not truly what defines a hurricane season; it is the impacts to land and populated areas. It only takes one landfall to create a devastating season." What Happens Next The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1. The Pacific hurricane season started on May 15. Update 5/22/25, 12:18 p.m. ET: This story was updated with additional information.
