NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season, 3-5 major hurricanes: What we know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 2025 outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year.
Atlantic hurricane season 2025 has almost arrived, with a start date of June 1. NOAA says a "confluence of factors" will likely fuel tropical cyclones in coming months. The administration urged early preparation in a May 22 news release.
'In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,' said NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. 'This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
Here's what we know.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 13-19 total named storms, meaning those with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those storms, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3-5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
USA TODAY reported that, based on weather records from 1991-2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes.
Before announcing the 2025 outlook, NOAA's acting administrator Laura Grimm said last year's outlook was "right on the money."
NOAA explained a number of reasons why predictions are above normal for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, including "ENSO," short for "El Niño - Southern Oscillation," the overall term for the El Niño / La Niña climate cycle that affects weather worldwide.
"The season is expected to be above normal - due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes," the NOAA stated in a news release.
"ENSO-Neutral" means neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
According to the NOAA, there were 18 total named storms in 2024, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, in 2024. It was the nation's deadliest hurricane season since 2005 according to National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, and the third-costliest on record after 2017 and 2005.
The "super-charged" season included Beryl, the earliest Category 5 on record, Milton, which caused deadly flooding and dozens of tornadoes in Florida, and, well-known by residents of WNC, Helene, which killed more than 100 people in WNC alone.
More: Hurricane season 2025 is almost here: 12 things you should know
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY, contributed to this report.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: How many hurricanes will there be in 2025? NOAA hurricane outlook
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