Latest news with #ElNiño-SouthernOscillation
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season guide: Here's how to prepare
The Brief Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. NOAA is predicting 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes, with 3 to 5 expected to become major hurricanes. This guide offers information on what to watch as we enter into hurricane season and how you can prepare. TAMPA, Fla. - After the 2024 storms, few Floridians want to think about hunkering down and preparing for the 2025 season, but it is that time of year again. The 2025 hurricane season begins on Sunday, June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. By the numbers In May, NOAA released its annual outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes, with 3 to 5 expected to become major hurricanes, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. A month earlier, Colorado State University released its initial extended range forecast for the upcoming season. The team is calling for 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes could reach major status, with winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher). Unlike institutions such as Colorado State University, which provides specific numbers for each formation category, NOAA issues a range to reflect the uncertainty in long-term forecasting. If the lower end of the NOAA forecast holds true, many may view 2025 as a relatively quiet season, but, if the upper end materializes, it could be just as busy as last year. READ:Hurricane Season 2025: Duke Energy gives inside look at control center Big picture view Looking ahead to the 2025 season, early outlooks from various weather organizations suggest an average to slightly above-average season. However, experts caution that early predictions are prone to errors. The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, is in flux. This plays a significant role in shaping tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In late 2024, the world entered a La Niña phase. This climate pattern is often linked to greater storm activity in the Atlantic basin, but the pattern is expected to wane in 2025. This will lead the world back to a neutral status of ENSO. READ: New Florida bill aims to prepare local governments for better hurricane response Historically, neutral ENSO years have produced a range of hurricane activity, from a below-average number of cyclones to well above-average seasons, depending on variables such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and other atmospheric factors. According to research conducted by experts at Florida State University, impacts from hurricanes during neutral years are heightened for the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast, similar to what's produced by La Niña sequences. The East Coast tends to experience reduced tropical cyclone activity during neutral events, while the Caribbean sees impacts that are considered to be about average. The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and newcomer Dexter. The name Dexter replaces Hurricane Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 season. Here are the 2025 hurricane names with pronunciations: Andrea (AN-dree uh) Barry (BAIR-ree) Chantal (shahn-TAHL) Dexter (DEHK-ster) Erin (AIR-rin) Fernand (fair-NAHN) Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL) Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh) Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah) Jerry (JEHR-ee) Karen (KAIR-ren) Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh) Melissa (meh-LIH-suh) Nestor (NES-tor) Olga (OAL-guh) Pablo (PAHB-lo) Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh) Sebastien (sus-BASH-chuhn) Tanya (TAHN-yuh) Van (van) Wendy (WEN-dee) What to pack in hurricane kit Keep important documents — such as birth certificates, social security cards, copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records — in a safe place and/or create password-protected digital copies. READ:Online survey focuses on Bay Area residents' decision to evacuate or not during Helene, Milton Keep a list of important contacts, such as Emergency Management Offices, county law enforcement, county public safety fire/rescue, local hospitals, local utilities, local media (such as TV and radio stations) and your property insurance agent. Assemble a disaster supply kit that will help you meet all your basic needs. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests including: Water — one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days to be used for drinking and for sanitation Food — at least three days-worth of non-perishable foods Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert Flashlight First aid kit Extra batteries Whistle to signal for help Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter in place Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities Manual can opener for food Local maps Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery Prescription medications Non-prescription medications such as pain relievers, anti-diarrhea medication, antacids or laxatives Glasses and contact lens solution Infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes, diaper rash cream Pet food and extra water for pets Cash or traveler's checks Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person Change of clothing appropriate for your climate and sturdy shoes Household chlorine bleach and medicine dropper to disinfect water Fire extinguisher Matches in a waterproof container Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items Mess kits, paper cups, plates, paper towels and plastic utensils Paper and pencil Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children It's important to keep your emergency kit updated, so check in annually to replace any expired medications or food and to update the kit with additional items your family may need. If you have pets, it's important to plan for their needs as well, and you may want to create a separate emergency kit just for them. FEMA offers suggestions for what to place in that kit to ensure your pet's best chance of getting through the emergency safely. FEMA also recommends keeping your pet's microchip information up to date in case they get lost, and creating a buddy system with neighbors or nearby friends and family to help your pet in the case that you aren't home. Familiarize yourself with pet-friendly hotels and shelters along your evacuation routes in the case that you must leave your home — many emergency shelters cannot take in animals that are not service animals for health and safety reasons. Your home is almost certainly going to take a beating during a hurricane, but here are steps you can take to fortify your residence: Keep drains and gutters free of debris and clutter Install check valves in your plumbing to prevent backups If you don't have hurricane shutters, consider getting them Review your insurance policies If you need to drive away from a hurricane in an evacuation, having important items ready in an separate emergency kit in your car can make leaving much more efficient. Prepare items such as: Flares Physical maps Jumper cables Extra cans of gas Warm blanket(s) Evacuation zones If you live in a zone that has been ordered to evacuate, get out. However, that doesn't mean you have to leave the state, or even the county where you live. Evacuation orders are given for storm surge zones in order to keep residents safe from the risk of storm surge flooding. The flooding typically subsides after the storm passes and residents will be allowed to return to their homes. Click here to see your evacuation zone. STAY CONNECTED:Download the free FOX 13 News app for Live SkyTower Radar, forecast videos, and more weather coverage What is Means This type of statement is issued when significant weather is happening or forecast, but no widespread impacts are expected. What you Should Do Prepare for the type of inclement weather that is indicated in the advisory. What it Means This type of statement is issued when dangerous weather is forecast to occur and widespread impacts to life and property are expected. It means forecasters believe conditions are right for severe weather to happen. You can think of this as the National Weather Service's way of saying, "Be on the lookout for severe weather." What you Should Do Prepare for the type of severe weather that is indicated in the watch. This means reviewing your safety plans so that you are ready to take action if a warning is issued. What it Means This type of statement is issued when severe weather is occurring and poses an immediate danger to life and property. What you Should Do Take action, meaning you should immediately execute your safety plan for the type of severe weather that is indicated in the warning. The Source This story was written with information from NOAA, FEMA, previous FOX 13 news articles and FOX Weather articles. STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 13 TAMPA: Download the FOX Local app for your smart TV Download FOX Local mobile app: Apple | Android Download the FOX 13 News app for breaking news alerts, latest headlines Download the SkyTower Radar app Sign up for FOX 13's daily newsletter Follow FOX 13 on YouTube
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
As Alvin degenerates, remnants could bring unusual pre-monsoon rainfall over Desert Southwest
PHOENIX – A surge of moisture, due in part to the placement of an upper-level low and the tropical moisture field from the Northern Hemisphere's first tropical cyclone of the year, will lead to increased rain chances across the Southwest over the next several days. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alvin will help increase humidity levels and eventually rain chances for cities such as Phoenix and Yuma, and potentially as far west as Las Vegas and Palm Springs, California. Forecast models generally expect less than 0.25 inches of rainfall across southeast California, while parts of Arizona could see totals closer to half an inch. Forecasters caution that rainfall amounts could be enhanced over higher terrain, where totals of up to an inch are possible, potentially leading to minor flooding in downstream areas. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the main impact will come from the unusual rainfall for this time of year. Southwest Monsoon Season Is Here: What You Need To Know According to National Weather Service historical data, Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport has only recorded measurable rainfall 38 times during the last week of May and the first week of June. Rainfall during this period is even rarer in Yuma, which has only recorded measurable rain 11 times during the same window since the late 1800s. The FOX Forecast Center stresses that the increased humidity and rainfall are not part of the annual monsoon, which typically begins around June 15 and lasts through Sept. 30. Cities in the Southwest accumulate roughly half of their annual precipitation during the months of June, July, August and September, though amounts can vary significantly. The monsoon pattern is closely linked to the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly called the ENSO. During La Niña events, the monsoon signal is typically more expansive and leads to heavier rainfall, while El Niño conditions can delay the start of the rainy season. How To Watch Fox Weather The unusual early-season rainfall will bring major benefits, including reduced wildfire potential and cooler temperatures. Highs during the second half of the weekend are expected to only reach the lower 90s, a significant drop from recent temperatures reaching 100-110 degrees. Any relief is expected to be temporary, as a building heat dome late next week and into the second week of June could bring the hottest temperatures of the year so article source: As Alvin degenerates, remnants could bring unusual pre-monsoon rainfall over Desert Southwest
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
La Niña Odds Are Below 50% for Winter 25/26, NOAA Says
The North American ski season has, for most (but not all!) skiers, ended. The boots, the coats, and the skis have been carefully tucked away by many of their dutiful owners. Still, with every conclusion comes the promise of a new beginning, and we'd be lying if we said that we aren't already thinking about the next entails parsing the movements of every skier's favorite climatic phenomenon: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, whose three varying phases can skew where the snow piles up the deepest. So, what does the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have to say about the ENSO's current status?Given the time of year, it's a bit uncertain. However, according to NOAA's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion, there is 'a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are under 15%).'Want to keep up with the best stories and photos in skiing? Subscribe to the new Powder To The People newsletter for weekly updates. So, as it stands, an upcoming La Niña is kind of likely—the appearance of an El Niño much less summer, NOAA has a higher degree of confidence that ENSO-neutral will stick around, with the odds pinned at 74%. The release of NOAA's next ENSO discussion is scheduled for June 12. If all that was Greek to you, here's a quick ENSO's cool phase, La Niña, tends to, on average, produce cooler and wetter weather in the northwestern reaches of the U.S. (read: more pow). The warm phase, El Niño, does approximately the opposite, delivering wetter, more skier-friendly weather down south, on average. Finally, ENSO-neutral, which occurs when neither a La Niña or El Niño is in effect, doesn't tip the scales in either direction. This handy map from NOAA depicts snowfall distributions across every La Niña winter since 1959, up to and including 2024, compared to an average gathered between 1991 and 2020. There are a few caveats. The ENSO's signals, while helpful in guessing what a given winter may look like in advance, don't guarantee weather. Instead, you can think of them like loaded dice, tweaking the powder day odds. Also, it's May—if you wanted an exact look at when or where you could score fresh snow seven months from now, you'd need a time Niña Odds Are Below 50% for Winter 25/26, NOAA Says first appeared on Powder on May 29, 2025
The Hindu
4 days ago
- Climate
- The Hindu
Unusually high-speed winds over Kerala, a throwback to 2018
The unusual pattern of high-speed wind in Kerala since the onset of the monsoon bears close resemblance to the wind that lashed the State in 2018, just ahead of the August floods that year. The speed of the monsoon low-level jet measured in the wind profiler radar of the Cusat's Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) was 20 m/s (approximately 72 kmph) at around 2 km height from the surface on Thursday. In 2018, the core speed of the monsoon low-level jet was about 20 m/s on August 14, the day ahead of the flood. This is unusual considering the climatological normal of the low-level jet speed over Kerala, which used to hover around 10-15 m/s, said Ajil Kottayil, scientist, Advanced Centre for Automatic Radar Research. The higher speed of westerly winds will normally pump a large quantity of moisture from the Arabian Sea to the land. Further, the orographic lifting of clouds, including their depth and extent, would be higher than normal during such situations, leading to intense spells of rain over the land, said Mr. Kottayil. In various districts The automatic weather stations under the India Meteorological Department also recorded high gusty winds across the State. Palakkad recorded 68.5 kmph strong wind followed by Wayanad 66.6 kmph, Idukki 61.1 kmph, Thiruvananthapuram 55.5 kmph, Kannur 53.7 kmph, Pathanamthitta 53.7 kmph, Ernakulam 53.7 kmph, and Kasaragod 51.8 kmph during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Thursday. Neetha K. Gopal, IMD Director, Thiruvananthapuram, told The Hindu that this unusually high speed of wind has been observed since the onset of the monsoon on May 24. The speed and gustiness of the wind are higher than those normally observed during monsoon. The speed and depth of the wind influence the rain. It is not known what's driving the enhanced speed of the low-level jet, said Ms. Gopal. Global factors Though global factors such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are neutral, conditions akin to La Niña, a climate pattern characterised by unusually cold surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, are prevailing, although temperature criteria technically do not allow it to be termed La Niña. Further, the atmospheric conditions are favourable for a wet spell over Kerala, she added. Local whirlwinds Along with this, the frequency and intensity of short-lived micro-scale whirlwinds reported in the State are also unusually high this time, causing widespread damage to properties. Whirlwinds normally seem to be local, with their causes also either regional or local. One of the main reasons for the development of localised whirlwinds is the climatic changes within the region, especially the decrease in monsoon rainfall and rise in temperature. The increased temperature in the absence of rain at one place may produce gustiness while raining, according to experts.
Indian Express
5 days ago
- Climate
- Indian Express
IMD Mumbai Director interview: ‘Timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. We can expect many days of heavy to very heavy rain'
From no heat wave day to heavy pre-monsoon showers that shattered records, this May has been one for the history books for Mumbai. After experiencing light to moderate showers from the second week of the month, monsoon arrived in Mumbai with a bang on May 26, making it the earliest recorded onset in the past 75 years. With the city experiencing an early arrival of monsoon, Shubhangi Bhute, Director, IMD (Mumbai) and head of Regional Meteorological Centre for Western India, spoke to The Indian Express about the factors influencing the early arrival and what Mumbai can expect going forward. Here are the edited excerpts: Q: This year, May has been unique for the city. Why did we see such heavy pre-monsoon showers, and what led to the earliest onset of the monsoon in the past 75 years at least? Shubhangi Bhute: In May, we did not see any rise in temperatures, with temperatures remaining normal and sometimes, because of rainfall activity, we have also seen that the temperatures have dropped to 32 degree Celsius as well. This month, monsoon also set into Mumbai well in advance, making it the earliest onset in the last 75 years. Earlier, there have been only five occasions (years) when the monsoon set in May, on May 31 and May 29. As well predicted, conditions were very favourable for the early onset. This year, monsoon had set into Andaman well in advance by May 13, then it set over Kerala by May 24, and then reached Maharashtra by May 25. The monsoon onset is declared when all the criteria for the declaration are met, and these include many factors about rainfall requirements, wind field, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), among others. Besides that, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also one of the key contributors. Earlier, MJO was in the eighth phase, and now, it is in the second phase, which is favourable for good monsoons in the Indian region. Furthermore, the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and neutral El Niño are also present. And altogether, these factors have led to the early onset of monsoon in the Indian region. Q. This time, we saw that the monsoon arrived in Mumbai very quickly, merely two days after it entered Kerala. This is in stark contrast to the normal timeline of at least 10 days. Bhute: We saw that the monsoon advanced very fast. After reaching Andaman on May 13, it entered Karwar almost a week in advance. It reached Karwar and Belgaum by May 24, and then within two days, it reached Mumbai by 26th May. Besides meeting the basic conditions for the declaration of monsoon in Kerala, the monsoon advancement also depends on two branches — the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches. If the Arabian Sea branch on the western coast is very active, with active systems like low-pressure areas, then the southwest monsoon starts setting in from the Arabian Sea side. However, currently, the Bay of Bengal side is very lull. This means that there is no system in the Bay of Bengal to pull the moisture, therefore, monsoon advancement has been delayed on the eastern side. Once a low-pressure area forms in the eastern branch of the Bay of Bengal, the winds will be pulled, and the monsoon will also be covered on the other coast. Presently, while the Bay of Bengal branch was lull, the Arabian Sea was very active with a low-pressure area, which contributed to the pulling in of moisture from the ocean to land. This further contributed to the early advancement of monsoon. Q: Several reports and weather observers have suggested that after the early advancement, there will be a lull in showers. What does this mean? Will the rains discontinue now? Bhute: The timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. Even if the monsoon were to arrive in June, ahead of schedule or even if it had been delayed, it is not necessary that the city would receive heavy rains every single day. Rains during monsoon are not continuous, simple or steady, as they always depend on the systems. There will always be a variation in the quantum of rain, and there may even be days when no rainfall is registered. In Mumbai, generally August is seen as the month of dry spell when there is the least rain, and July is the wettest monsoon period, while June is the month of onset. Now that the monsoons have arrived early in May, we will observe the rain patterns this month. Q: This year, IMD has forecast above normal rains all over the country. What does this mean for Mumbai? Bhute: In the Long Range Period forecast, IMD's chart has indicated that above-normal rainfall is very likely along the west coast, particularly around the Maharashtra region. This suggests that the percentage of possibility of excess rainfall is more even in Mumbai. Q: Does this mean Mumbai can see more flash floods, as we observed on May 26 with the arrival of monsoon? Bhute: The patterns of monsoon have now changed as we receive heavy rains within a short period. While we cannot say right now whether the frequency of flash floods will be higher, we can definitely expect many days where we will receive 'heavy to very heavy rain'. As per the IMD's forecast for this season, a higher frequency of rainy days is very likely, as we can expect more 'heavy to very heavy rainfall' type of days in Mumbai. Q: IMD often draws flak for failing to issue timely forecast warnings and alerts. What makes forecasting a challenging task in a city like Mumbai? Bhute: First of all, we are in a tropical region where the frequency of weather changes is very fast. Now, in the monsoons, we expect rains from the southwesterly winds, and that has to be supported by upper air winds. While generally we get rains because of southwesterly winds, which bring moisture, and we get the convection of the rains, the changes in wind patterns and other systems happen at the micro level. Mumbai is only a 40 to 60 km patch, which is in the Arabian Sea. Compared to the larger state of Maharashtra, it is a very small stretch. It is very difficult to forecast for such a small stretch, as sub-kilometre mesoscale models are unavailable. Besides being in the tropical zone, Mumbai's proximity to the sea also means that the weather changes very rapidly. On land, we observe fixed patterns where systems generally move in a very particular manner. But in Mumbai, we will see that some parts receive rain while the other parts may remain dry and even sunny. Furthermore, while we predict and issue forecast warnings on the basis of synoptic conditions one day in advance, changes happen very fast within half an hour or in hours. Even if we look at May 26, extremely heavy rainfall occurred only in South Mumbai, while the rest of the suburbs experienced much less rain during the daytime. Within two days, the Colaba station received more than 250 mm of rainfall while the Santacruz station recorded heavy showers on the second day. Whenever we issue orange or red alerts, we mention the likelihood of rain in isolated pockets, as it is very unlikely that the entire city would receive heavy rain. Q: What is the system of issuing red alerts? Sometimes, red alerts are issued when the intensity of rain relaxes or the showers discontinue after a red warning is sounded. Bhute: For red warnings, we generally follow the orange alert. While we forecast heavy rainfall for an orange alert, the city may likely experience extremely heavy rainfall for only two hours, after which it may dry up. On May 26, too, we had issued forecasts with orange and then, red alerts, indicating that the city would receive heavy rain during the first half, following which the intensity would reduce. However, we issue our forecast warnings for a period of 24 hours, as immediately removing the red alert is not ideal. Even if the system relaxes and rains have reduced, we keep our warnings for a 24-hour period, as the systems can always intensify and bring heavy rain again. Often, it also happens that we issue our red alerts 24 hours or 48 hours in advance, but sometimes the systems can change very fast. Furthermore, it is not easy to withdraw a red alert immediately after it is issued. Our objective is that the administration and the public should not be in trouble or underprepared. If there is a possibility of rain, we can always overwarn rather than underwarn, as there should not arise a situation where our underwarning leads to a lack of adequate preparation or there is an adverse situation or mishap. Sometimes, even if we are expecting heavy rain, which can be categorised as orange, we do not remove our red alert, as extra precaution is always better.
