Unusually high-speed winds over Kerala, a throwback to 2018
In 2018, the core speed of the monsoon low-level jet was about 20 m/s on August 14, the day ahead of the flood. This is unusual considering the climatological normal of the low-level jet speed over Kerala, which used to hover around 10-15 m/s, said Ajil Kottayil, scientist, Advanced Centre for Automatic Radar Research. The higher speed of westerly winds will normally pump a large quantity of moisture from the Arabian Sea to the land. Further, the orographic lifting of clouds, including their depth and extent, would be higher than normal during such situations, leading to intense spells of rain over the land, said Mr. Kottayil.
In various districts
The automatic weather stations under the India Meteorological Department also recorded high gusty winds across the State. Palakkad recorded 68.5 kmph strong wind followed by Wayanad 66.6 kmph, Idukki 61.1 kmph, Thiruvananthapuram 55.5 kmph, Kannur 53.7 kmph, Pathanamthitta 53.7 kmph, Ernakulam 53.7 kmph, and Kasaragod 51.8 kmph during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Thursday.
Neetha K. Gopal, IMD Director, Thiruvananthapuram, told The Hindu that this unusually high speed of wind has been observed since the onset of the monsoon on May 24. The speed and gustiness of the wind are higher than those normally observed during monsoon. The speed and depth of the wind influence the rain. It is not known what's driving the enhanced speed of the low-level jet, said Ms. Gopal.
Global factors
Though global factors such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are neutral, conditions akin to La Niña, a climate pattern characterised by unusually cold surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, are prevailing, although temperature criteria technically do not allow it to be termed La Niña. Further, the atmospheric conditions are favourable for a wet spell over Kerala, she added.
Local whirlwinds
Along with this, the frequency and intensity of short-lived micro-scale whirlwinds reported in the State are also unusually high this time, causing widespread damage to properties. Whirlwinds normally seem to be local, with their causes also either regional or local. One of the main reasons for the development of localised whirlwinds is the climatic changes within the region, especially the decrease in monsoon rainfall and rise in temperature. The increased temperature in the absence of rain at one place may produce gustiness while raining, according to experts.
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