Latest news with #LaNiña
Bangkok Post
a day ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
US tariffs a threat to coconut exports
Thai coconut exporters could face significant challenges if the US imposes higher tariffs on Thai products than those exported from Vietnam, says K Fresh, a leading Thai producer and shipper of coconut products. El Niño conditions raised temperatures in Thailand over the past two years, causing a decline in the coconut supply and leading to rising prices and disruptions in coconut-related factory operations, said Natthasak Manusrungsri, managing director of K Fresh Co Ltd. Meanwhile, Vietnam significantly expanded its coconut export operations as it benefits from lower labour and production costs, said Mr Natthasak. He said Thailand's "Nam Hom" coconut is unique, known for its sweet and aromatic taste that can only be grown in specific provinces, such as Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon and Samut Songkhram. Thailand's coconut supply remains lower than that of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. The export value of fresh coconuts reached around 7 billion baht in 2024, said Mr Natthasak. Coconut prices fluctuate with supply, and during low-yield periods prices can reach up to 30 baht a piece, he said. Now that Thailand has entered a La Niña weather pattern with increased rain, supply has surged and prices have dropped. Current farm prices for coconuts are 4-5 baht each, which helps Thai exporters to regain market share from Vietnam, said Mr Natthasak. "If we can't compete with Vietnam, the entire Thai coconut supply chain will be affected," he said. China remains a key market as its coconut demand grows, and it is important to use this opportunity to reclaim market share, said Mr Natthasak. If Chinese buyers turn to Vietnamese suppliers, Thailand's coconut industry could suffer a severe impact, he said. Mr Natthasak said trade negotiations between Thailand and the US on tariff rates are important. As the agricultural sector is crucial to the Thai economy, it is essential for the government to carefully consider any potential impacts from tariffs to Thai industries, he said. Even if Thailand secures the same tariff rate as Vietnam at 20%, it will still be difficult to compete due to Vietnam's lower prices, said Mr Natthasak. "We need a lower tariff than Vietnam, ideally under 20%," he said. K Fresh exports nearly 99% of its products, with its main markets China and the US, each accounting for around 30%. If US tariffs on Thai exports are higher than those imposed on competitors, the company may shift its focus to the Chinese market, said Mr Natthasak. Agricultural exports often rely on volume rather than margin, he said.
Bangkok Post
3 days ago
- Climate
- Bangkok Post
Experts sound drought warning for next year
As Typhoon Wipha weakens, its immediate impacts, such as flooding in parts of the North, are gradually receding. However, experts are sounding the alarm over more serious challenges ahead, including flash floods, water shortages, and a potential drought crisis in 2026. The Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) is warning that rainfall across Thailand is expected to decline by 4-9% during August and September. This is part of broader shifts tied to climate change, including the transition from La Niña to either neutral (La Nada) or El Niño conditions, factors that will affect Thailand's water availability well into next year. At a public forum titled "Water and Climate Alert: Rain Monitor for 2025 Storm Forecast", held on Wednesday, HII analysts warned extreme weather events are likely to increase in intensity and unpredictability. Sudden droughts, driven by fluctuating rainfall, are expected to emerge in the latter half of this year, particularly affecting southern and inland provinces. HII director Royboon Rassamethes said northern provinces such as Chiang Rai, Nan, and Phayao already experienced heavy rainfall this month, exceeding 150 mm per week in some areas. Despite current flooding, the concern is now centring on how rapidly water levels might decline, leaving reservoirs understocked and agricultural areas vulnerable to drought. Looking ahead, Thailand is projected to face a water shortage of over 4,450 million cubic metres by 2026. National water reserves fall short of the 12,000 million cubic metres needed to sustain critical demand. In response, authorities are being urged to speed up work on irrigation systems and large-scale water diversion plans, redirecting floodwaters into storage pools and high-demand agricultural zones. Mr Royboon said "the next four weeks are crucial", as accumulated rainfall could trigger more flash floods while simultaneously masking the onset of longer-term water scarcity. He urged the public to monitor forecasts, updated four times daily, and to use the ThaiWater application for 48-hour alerts at the sub-district level. From November to December, heavier-than-normal rainfall is expected across the western coast of southern Thailand, while eastern provinces will see typical monsoonal patterns. However, overall, 2025 rainfall is projected to be significantly lower than in 2024, underscoring the urgency of strategic water management. The HII is working closely with public and private partners to enhance forecasting accuracy. "By integrating drone technology and advanced monitoring tools, we are upgrading our real-time response capability. "These innovations will improve early warnings and support long-term planning for Thailand's water security," Mr Royboon said. Meanwhile, the aftermath of Typhoon Wipha continues to affect residents in northern Thailand, particularly in Nan province. Reporters say floodwaters have inundated parts of the city for three consecutive days, and although levels have begun to recede slightly, many areas remain submerged, some as deep as two metres. Roads leading into Nan City, such as the route from Ban Luang district to the Phan Ton intersection in the municipal area, remain underwater. While some vehicles are now partially visible, flood levels in the economic zone remain over one metre deep. Rescue teams are using boats to transport residents in and out of their homes, helping them access essential supplies, as aid cannot reach some locations.
Newsweek
21-07-2025
- Science
- Newsweek
Map Reveals 'Accelerating' Water Loss Affecting 40 Million Americans
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Colorado River Basin has seen an extensive loss of groundwater loss over two decades, with more than half of the loss being in Arizona, according to a new map drawn from NASA satellite data. Analysis by Arizona State University (ASU) researchers has revealed "rapid and accelerating" groundwater loss in the basin's underground aquifers between 2002 and 2024. Some 40 million Americans rely on water from these aquifers, including in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The team has warned that "climate change is causing more frequent and intense droughts around the world, including in the Colorado River Basin—which supplies water to seven U.S. states and Mexico—and is facing severe water shortages." The basin lost 27.8 million acre-feet of groundwater over the past two decades, which is roughly equal to the storage capacity of Lake Mead, according to paper author and ASU geoscientist Karem Abdelmohsen. Around 68 percent of the losses occurred in the lower part of the basin, which lies mostly in Arizona. Drag slider compare photos "Lots of attention has gone to low water levels in reservoirs over the years, but the depletion of groundwater far outpaces the surface water losses. This is a big warning flag," said Abdelmohsen in a statement. During the first decade of the study period between 2002 and 2014, parts of the basin in western Arizona (in the La Paz and Mohave counties) and in the southeast of the state (Cochise County) lost groundwater at a rate of around 0.2 inches per year. However, this rate more than doubled, to 0.5 inches per year, in the following decade. Scientists say the acceleration of the groundwater loss is likely down to two factors, including the arrival of a "triple-dip" La Niña between 2020 and 2023. (La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon that sees cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña typically leads to reduced rainfall over the Southwest and slows the replenishment of aquifers, NASA explained. A "triple dip" is when we get three consecutive years of La Niña conditions.) A second factor at play may be an increase in the amount of groundwater used for agriculture. Arizona saw a rise in agricultural activity in 2014, when large alfalfa farms arrived in La Paz and other southern parts of the state. Dairies and orchards as well as other popular "thirsty" crops grown in the state, such as cotton, corn, and pecans, likely impacted groundwater supplies, Famiglietti said. According to data from the Arizona Department of Water Resources, 72 percent of the state's available water supply is used for irrigated agriculture. Many farms use "vast" amounts of groundwater, Famiglietti said, partly because they use flood irrigation, where water is released into trenches that run through crop fields. The long-standing practice, commonly used for alfalfa and cotton, tends to be the cheapest option but can lead to more water loss and evaporation than other irrigation techniques, such as overhead sprinklers or dripping water from plastic tubing. The latest study also found evidence that managing groundwater can help keep Arizona aquifers healthier. For example, the active management areas and irrigation non-expansion areas formed as part of the Arizona Groundwater Management Act of 1980 cut down water losses in some areas. The designation of a new active management area in the Willcox Groundwater Basin is also likely to further slow groundwater losses. "Still, the bottom line is that the losses to groundwater were huge," Abdelmohsen said. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about water shortages? Let us know via science@ Reference Abdelmohsen, K., Famiglietti, J.S., Ao, Y. Z., Mohajer, B., Chandanpurkar, H.A., (2025). Declining Freshwater Availability in the Colorado River Basin Threatens Sustainability of Its Critical Groundwater Supplies. Geophysical Research Letters.
Boston Globe
15-07-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Tropical disturbance near Florida to dump extreme flooding rain along Gulf coast
What comes next remains to be seen, as the core of the storm will glide along the shallow waters of the Gulf, likely paralleling the coastline. There is a 40 percent chance that the storm will form a tropical depression and a lesser chance for winds to strengthen to what would be Tropical Storm Dexter. Essentially, a weak pocket of high pressure over the interior southeast may not be strong enough to direct the storm out to the Gulf, which is a good sign in terms of winds. Regardless, sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf are running in the upper 80s, with the atmosphere already full of moisture. Heavy rain is a lock across the Gulf coast, bringing flooding chances along the Florida panhandle to Louisiana by later in the work week. Advertisement A 40 percent chance for a tropical system to develop exists, mainly over the Gulf. Model tracks show the storm paralleling the Gulf Coast. Boston Globe The highest risk for extensive flooding exists in portions of Louisiana on Thursday and Friday, where the low-lying plain will be doused with 6 to 12 inches of rain in a hurry. This may lead to numerous flooding events, with flooding emergencies possible across New Orleans and Baton Rouge. As of now, it appears this system will stall out over Louisiana and Mississippi, which can create a very dangerous scenario heading into the weekend. Advertisement There is a chance for parts of the Gulf, especially Louisiana, to see double-digit rainfall totals as the tropical system dumps extreme rainfall. Boston Globe Will New England see remnant impacts? In a way, yes. Most of the moisture will push north along the Mississippi River heading into the weekend and will begin to wring out as the western edge of that pocket of high pressure over the Southeast pulls some of the moisture toward the Northeast. The remnant moisture will marginally support a separate system that will lurk near New England this weekend, but it will be minimal and held mostly to the south of our region. How is Atlantic hurricane season shaping up The current season is pacing ahead of schedule. We've had three named storms already, and the third storm is typically named by an average date of Aug. 3. The first named hurricane typically forms by Aug. 11. So we're essentially about three weeks ahead of a typical year, which usually produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, of which three usually evolve into a major, Category 3 or higher, hurricane. The National Hurricane Center predicts an above-average season with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 major hurricanes. Above-average sea surface temperatures, along with the absence of a formidable El Niño or La Niña, are behind the slight increase in forecast tropical activity this season. NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. Boston Globe Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate pattern shows signs of shifting. What will happen in the US?
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite of the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the United States, other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest, including New York, tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 email to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin. But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPC's ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2025 La Niña forecast says major shift may be brewing
