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USA Today
2 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Auburn receives massive jump in ESPN FPI heading into 2025 season
Auburn receives massive jump in ESPN FPI heading into 2025 season The Auburn Tigers have not lived up to expectations on the gridiron for most of the decade, but with back-to-back highly touted recruiting classes and an abundance of impact transfers on the way, Hugh Freeze's squad is expected to compete for at the top half of the SEC in 2025. Those high expectations were displayed in ESPN's opening Football Power Index rankings, in which Auburn was one of the biggest risers from last year's list. The Tigers checked in at the No. 14 spot in the FPI, sandwiched between a pair of fellow SEC teams in Ole Miss (No. 13) and South Carolina (No. 15). The ranking was a huge jump from where the Tigers finished 2024, as Hugh Freeze's team didn't even finish inside of the top 30 after losing the Iron Bowl and missing out on a bowl game. Auburn's 17 spot jump from No. 31 to No. 14 was the largest among teams currently ranked in the top 20. Hugh Freeze's squad is the only program ranked in the top 15 that did not finish last season ranked in the top 25. While the jump, and the company Auburn has enjoyed because of it, may seem like an ambitious projection, it does make sense when looking at the drastically improved nature of the Tigers roster. Next season's version of the Tigers will feature a new signal caller under center, a myriad of four and five-star recruits on the defensive side of the football, and a receiving duo of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. that is being described as a top duo in the nation by many experts. The next step for Hugh Freeze's squad is to prove it on Saturdays in the fall. If they don't, the No. 14 team in FPI will fall right back to No. 31 before long. Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter@TheRealBHauch
USA Today
2 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
How ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Auburn's 2025 opponents
How ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Auburn's 2025 opponents Half of Auburn's 2025 opponents begin the season ranked in the top 25 of ESPN's Football Power Index rankings. For anyone in the SEC, the schedule is always a grueling one. Despite the conference not having a national championship in the last two seasons, the league is still regarded by most as the best in college football. The Auburn schedule for 2025 is a tough one, but it is also a manageable one. The conference schedule is the same as 2024 except the home and away portion is flipped. The Tigers add Baylor, Ball State, South Alabama, and Mercer to the schedule. This week ESPN released their Football Power Index rankings, and Auburn ranks No. 14 in the country. The FPI gives Auburn a win prediction of 7.5 games with a 21.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Eight wins would be a huge improvement after the previous four seasons, but is it enough for Hugh Freeze? Time will only tell on that discussion. The schedule of opponents will also go a long way in determining the final record. Auburn will be playing good teams most weeks. The opener versus Baylor will be important, and a 1-0 start is pivotal. The FPI is projecting the Bears to go 7-5 this upcoming season and place sixth in the Big 12. Baylor closed out the regular season with six consecutive wins before losing the LSU in their bowl game. They finished 8-5 and will be looking to continue their 2024 momentum. Auburn will host the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the FPI rankings this season in Alabama and Georgia. Both teams are projected to win ten games and play in the College Football Playoff. Auburn has not beaten the Crimson Tide since 2019, and it has been even longer since they beat the Bulldogs. The last win over Georgia was in 2017. Auburn will have a tricky two-game stretch early in the season when they visit Oklahoma and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks. The Sooners are looking to be more competitive this season and FPI has projected them at seven wins. The Aggies win total is projected at eight wins, and they should be a team in the College Football Playoff discussion. The road trip to Norman, Oklahoma could be an emotional game. Quarterback Jackson Arnold will be looking to have a big game versus his former team. Here is a look at Auburn's schedule, broken down by ESPN FPI ranking: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia (No. 2) Nov. 29 vs. Alabama (No. 3) Sept. 27 at Texas A&M (No. 8) Sept. 20 at Oklahoma (No. 16) Oct. 25 at Arkansas (No. 22) Oct. 18 vs. Missouri (No. 23) Aug. 28 at Baylor (No. 33) Nov. 1 vs. Kentucky (No. 34) Nov. 8 at Vanderbilt (No. 56) Sept. 13 vs. South Alabama (No. 83) Sept. 6 vs. Ball State (No. 132) Nov. 22 vs. Mercer (FCS-N/A) Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Taylor on Twitter @TaylorJones__
USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Ranking Oregon Ducks' 2025 opponents from easiest to toughest, per ESPN FPI
Ranking Oregon Ducks' 2025 opponents from easiest to toughest, per ESPN FPI The Oregon Ducks have a lot to prove entering the 2025 college football season, looking to show that their Big Ten Championship a year ago was far from a fluke while also establishing themselves as national championship contenders once again under Dan Lanning in his fourth year at the helm. It won't be easy to do, with a new-look roster taking over in Eugene and a lot of young and talented players stepping into bigger roles. Fortunately, the Ducks won't have a grueling schedule to deal with. In our most recent ranking of the toughest schedules in the conference, Oregon finds itself in the middle of the pack at No. 11 out of 18 teams. Trips to Penn State, Iowa, and Washington could prove tough, but the Ducks do get the benefit of hosting the likes of Indiana, USC, and Wisconsin. Which of those games will prove to be the toughest, though? While we may have an idea, a tool that was released this week — ESPN's Football Power Index — can help us. For those unfamiliar with ESPN's FPI, it is an index that 'relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.' In essence, it's ESPN's way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. Here's how the FPI see's Oregon's schedule broken down, from the easiest game on the docket to the toughest: No. 12 — Week 1 vs. Montana State Bobcats National FPI Rank: None As an FCS team, Montana State doesn't get an FPI score from ESPN, but don't let that allow you to look past the Bobcats. Last season, they lost to the North Dakota State Bison in the FCS National Championship Game, which was their second loss in the title game since 2021. This is a talented and well-coached team that could surprise someone in Week 1. No. 11 — Week 4 vs. Oregon State Beavers National FPI Rank: No. 80 (-4.5) This may be a great rivalry, but it likely won't be a very great product on the field for quite a while. The two programs appear to be going in different directions thanks to conference realignment. As long as this game continues, we will have traditions staying alive, but as for interesting football, we may be out of luck for a while. No. 10 — Week 3 at Northwestern Wildcats National FPI Rank: No. 74 (-3.6) Northwestern might be a bit better this year than they were in 2024 thanks to a new QB in Preston Stone, but it's hard to imagine that they're going to be giving Oregon a major test this early in the season. No. 9 — Week 2 vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys National FPI Rank: No. 67 (0.3) As far as name brands go, this matchup between Oregon and Oklahoma State is a pretty solid non-conference clash, but based on where the Cowboys stand going into this year and their recent history, it likely won't be too interesting of a game when all is said and done. No. 8 — Week 8 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights National FPI Rank: No. 55 (3.5) Greg Schiano may be able to win some games in the Big Ten this year with a decent roster, but I don't think Rutgers is going to be good enough to give the Ducks any trouble, even across the country on a long road trip. No. 7 — Week 12 vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers National FPI Rank: No. 43 (5.2) I'm interested to see what PJ Fleck can do with the Minnesota roster this year, but with Drake Lindsey under center, they probably won't be among the top teams in the conference, and should be a big underdog on the road at Autzen. No. 6 — Week 11 at Iowa Hawkeyes National FPI Rank: No. 39 (6.3) Iowa will go as far as transfer QB Mark Gronowski can take them this year. He has the talent to be really good for Iowa, coming over from South Dakota State as a high-level FCS QB, but whether or not that's good enough to make the Hawkeyes dangerous in the Big Ten is a different question. Fortunately for Oregon, this game comes later in the season, so there shouldn't be any surprises. For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire! No. 5 — Week 9 vs. Wisconsin Badgers National FPI Rank: No. 38 (6.3) Will Wisconsin be the home that Billy Edwards Jr. needs to reach his ceiling? That's the central question for the Badgers this year. If the answer is yes, then this game late in the season in Eugene might be interesting. If not, I don't think the Ducks will have any trouble with getting a win here. For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire! No. 4 — Week 7 vs. Indiana Hoosiers National FPI Rank: No. 31 (8.3) Indiana was the story of the year in the Big Ten last year, and if they can find the same magic in Fernando Mendoza as they did in Kurtis Rourke, then they could once again be a formidable foe. I wouldn't bet against them at this point, but I still think Oregon's talent wins out in this game. It also helps that the Ducks get Curt Cignetti and his squad at home in Eugene. No. 3 — Week 14 at Washington Huskies National FPI Rank: No. 27 (8.8) The Huskies had a down year in 2024 with Jedd Fisch taking over, but don't be surprised to see them bounce back in 2025, with Demond Williams under center and a solid roster around him. I think this game against Washington could be tougher than many Oregon fans want to admit, especially since it will take place up in Seattle, a tough place to play. It should be a fun year in the rivalry, regardless of the outcome. For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire! No. 2 — Week 13 vs. USC Trojans National FPI Rank: No. 19 (13.0) Can USC live up to the hype and put together a solid season, or will they once again hover around .500 and have Lincoln Riley's name in hot-seat conversations? That's something that we have to wait and see, but regardless of how good they are, the rivalry with Oregon will be fun to watch late in the year with likely College Football Playoff spots on the line. For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire! No. 1 — Week 5 at Penn State Nittany Lions National FPI Rank: No. 5 (21.5) This is the game of the year for Oregon and undoubtedly the hardest one on the schedule. A neutral-site game against Penn State would be difficult, but having to travel to Happy Valley and be part of a whiteout game is going to be difficult. The winner of this early-season matchup will be in a great spot to get to the playoff and have an inside track on a spot in the Big Ten Championship. For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire! Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
USA Today
5 days ago
- Business
- USA Today
Oregon Football faces uphill battle in repeating as Big Ten Champions, per ESPN FPI
Oregon Football faces uphill battle in repeating as Big Ten Champions, per ESPN FPI In their first year as members of the Big Ten Conference, the Oregon Ducks announced their presence with authority. While many questioned whether or not this flashy team from the Pacific Northwest would be able to travel and assert themselves as one of the top teams in a historic and rugged conference, the Ducks did more than just hold their own. In the regular season, they went a perfect 13-0, beating traditional powers like the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers, and Penn State Nittany Lions on the way to winning the conference championship before all was said and done. Not a bad introduction to your new league. In 2025, the Ducks' roster will look quite a bit different, but they are still expected to be among the best teams in the nation, debuting at No. 6 on ESPN's Football Power Index ratings, which were released on Tuesday. But will they be able to repeat as Big Ten champs? According to the FPI, it may be an uphill battle for Oregon to pull off that feat for the second year in a row. For those unfamiliar with ESPN's FPI, it is an index that 'relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.' In essence, it's ESPN's way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. Here's a look at how the conference stacks up when it comes to percentage to win the conference, according to ESPN's FPI: No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 92 Projected FPI Record: 3.2-8.8 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 18 Purdue has to feel good about bringing in Barry Odom to take over the program, but this is not a one-year rebuild situation to get back to relevance in the conference. No. 17 — Northwestern Boilermakers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 74 Projected FPI Record: 4.1-7.9 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 17 Ryan Braun had a great first year but regressed back to the mean in 2024 with a below-average season. What will 2025 bring? ESPN doesn't seem to think it will be anything special. No. 16 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 55 Projected FPI Record: 5.8-6.2 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 15 Rutgers has some nice pieces and a solid coaching staff, but I don't think anyone considers them major contenders this year. No. 15 — Michigan State Spartans ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 59 Projected FPI Record: 5.2-6.8 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 12 We'll see what Jonathan Smith can do in his second year with the Spartans and how much of a leap Aidan Chiles can make this season. For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire! No. 14 — UCLA Bruins ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 47 Projected FPI Record: 5.4-6.6 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 13 Can Nico Iamaleava overcome the poor roster at UCLA and turn the Bruins into a winner? It definitely feels like a long shot. For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire! No. 13 — Maryland Terrapins ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.2% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 61 Projected FPI Record: 5.9-6.1 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 16 Will this be the year that Mike Locksley finally breaks through and builds a contender at Maryland? It certainly doesn't seem likely. No. 12 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.3% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 43 Projected FPI Record: 6.9-5.2 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 11 P.J. Fleck has done a good job coaching at Minnesota, and they are one of the teams that could be able to surpass expectations this season if the ball bounces the right way a few times. No. 11 — Wisconsin Badgers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.4% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 38 Projected FPI Record: 5.6-6.5 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 14 Wisconsin has the toughest schedule in the conference this year, so expecting them to make a huge leap with Billy Edwards Jr. under center is asking a lot. For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire! No. 10 — Iowa Hawkeyes ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 39 Projected FPI Record: 6.2-5.8 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 10 We know that Iowa will be a good defensive team again this year, but can they improve on offense with Mark Gronowski under center? It will be one of the more interesting storylines to follow in the conference this season. For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire! No. 9 — Illinois Fighting Illini ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 44 Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 4 Illinois has gotten a ton of buzz as a sneaky contender in the Big Ten this year with Luke Altmyer returning for another year, but ESPN isn't as sold on their high expectations as the media consensus. No. 8 — Washington Huskies ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.8% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 27 Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 9 With Jedd Fisch's second year in Seattle and Demond Williams taking over as the starter, Washington could be a surprise team in the conference this season. For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire! No. 7 — Indiana Hoosiers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.9% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 31 Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 7 Indiana was the talk of the conference last year with Curt Cignetti taking over, and now with Fernando Mendoza replacing Kurtis Rourke under center, they could be set up for another impressive run in 2025. No. 6 — Nebraska Cornhuskers ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 1.5% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 25 Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 8 How good will Dylan Raiola be this year, and what is the ceiling of Nebraska's offense with a relative lack of talent around him? If Raiola can take an expected leap, this team might be better than many expect. For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire! No. 5 — USC Trojans ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 4.2% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 19 Projected FPI Record: 8.3-3.9 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 5 USC has done a solid job building a roster on both sides of the ball this year, and while we need to see it play out on the field before crowning them contenders, Lincoln Riley certainly has a team worth watching. For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire! No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 6.0% ESPN FPI Ranking: 17 Projected FPI Record: 8.4-3.7 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 6 ESPN seems to be high on Bryce Underwood and his ability to lead the Wolverines as a true freshman. I would like to see it for a couple of games before naming Michigan contenders to win the conference, but it's possible. For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire! No. 3 — Oregon Ducks ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 19.1% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6 Projected FPI Record: 10.0-2.4 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 3 As the defending Big Ten Champions, it makes sense that Oregon is in the mix to win it once again this year. However, it also doesn't come as a surprise to see them sitting behind teams like Penn State and Ohio State in the odds. For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire! No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 25.1% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6 Projected FPI Record: 10.2-2.2 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 1 Considering that most preseason rankings have Penn State at No. 1 in the nation, it was a bit surprising to see the Nittany Lions in the No. 2 spot when it comes to conference championship odds. It would be surprising not to see them in the mix, though. For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire! No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 40.3% ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 4 Projected FPI Record: 10.4-2.2 Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 2 Putting Ohio State at the top of the odds is not surprising, considering they won the national championship a year ago. However, Julian Sayin is going to have to be special in order for this offense to get back to where they were a year ago. For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire! Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
