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The Risk Of Rushing: Details Murky On Trump, Van Der Leyen Trade Deal
The Risk Of Rushing: Details Murky On Trump, Van Der Leyen Trade Deal

Forbes

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

The Risk Of Rushing: Details Murky On Trump, Van Der Leyen Trade Deal

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen shakes hands with President during a ... More meeting at Trump Turnberry golf club on Sunday in Scotland. (Photo by) President Trump and European Union President Ursula von der Leyen shook hands on a deal Sunday to stave off 30% tariffs on U.S. imports from the E.U., which could have been effective on Friday, though it remains unclear what the deal is. Perhaps what they really agreed to is to stall for more time. Historically, trade agreements take a great deal of time and review before being announced. That said, it appears that most if not all U.S. imports from the European Union will face a 15% tariff. That's one area of disagreement if not among the two parties, then at least among the first reporting on the limited 'details.' It also appears that most U.S. exports to the 27 nations of the European Union will not have a tariff. That's another area of disagreement, at least in the early reporting. That 15% tariff on U.S. imports is up slightly from the 10% 'baseline' tariff already in place with all countries of the world since Trump began the global trade war to reduce the U.S. deficit, which is still increasing. It is, of course, significantly higher than the 1.2% tariff rate on U.S. imports from the European Union that preceded it. (The 'deal' would seem to lower the 25% tariff in place on passenger vehicle imports into the United States.) On the U.S. export side, the zero tariff rate would replace a rate of 2.8%, so not a big change. But a spokesperson for the European Union would not respond to a 'request for comment about Trump's claim." Here's where it gets really important: Does the 15% tariff on E.U. imports include critical medicines and the compounds used to make those medicines, imports into the United States that Ireland and other European nations dominate? President Trump says no, according to one news source. 'We have 15% for pharmaceuticals,' Von der Leyen said, according to another. I wrote last week about the risk of the trade war on Americans' access to important medicines because of the United States' reliance on Europe for so many medicines and a great deal of the chemical compounds used to produce drugs here. Regardless of whether pharmaceuticals are hit with 15% tariffs or not, it is not hard to imagine that whatever tariffs are ultimately imposed will put pressure on prices as the U.S. government collects revenues from the European Union and a host of other nations. One thing on which Trump and van der Leyen did agree was that making a deal was important to both sides, given the strength of the trading relationship. The United States' top 15 trade partners, which account for 44.40% of all U.S. trade, including 44.22% of all U.S. exports and 44.51% of all imports, includes the following seven European Union nations: Overall, the trade with just these European Union nations is relatively balanced, with those seven accounting for 21.38% of all U.S. trade, including 20.27% of all exports and 22.05% of all U.S. imports. The overall deficit with these five nations is $149.61 billion. The percentages for all 27 European nations is similar on total trade and U.S. exports but it drops on imports, since many of the other countries are without the same buying power. Overall, the European Union is accounting for 20.22% of all U.S. imports and 18.57% of all U.S. exports through May, the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gaining clarity on the issues will be important. Six of the 10 U.S. imports from the European Union where the E.U. was a dominant source were in the area of pharmaceuticals and with chemical compounds used to make medicines in this country. The same six in 10 statistic is true of U.S. exports to the 27-nation European Union. For example, 99.22% of $42.95 billion in U.S. imports in the insulin, hormone and steroid category (HS code 2937) through May were from the European Union, with 98.48% coming from Ireland, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. It is the top U.S. import from the European Union this year. The same category is a top U.S. export to the European Union, accounting for 53.85% of the $4.94 billion in U.S. exports to the world, ranking fourth overall to the European Union. But the 15% tariffs would affect a broad range of exports and imports. The European Union is responsible for 79.77% of the $2.97 billion in wine imports into the United States through May and 80.78% of $2.15 billion in perfumes. While these are the U.S. import categories that the European Union dominates by global market share, they are not the largest by value. Among those not mentioned above for market share that are among the top 10 by value from the European Union are: It is, of course, not clear whether those last two would face tariffs or not. Switching over to the U.S. export side, the European Union has an appetite for the broad nut category (HS code 0802) that is dominated by shelled almonds and pistachios in the shell, with 37.49% of the $4.09 billion total in U.S. exports through May headed to the European Union. In addition, the E.U. has a thirst for the alcoholic spirits category (HS code 2208) that is dominated by bourbon and whiskey, with 46.66% of the total $1.08 billion sent to the world. Any decrease in tariffs on these would certainly be welcome. During the press conference announcing the framework for a deal, Trump emphasized that the European Union would be increasing its purchase of U.S. energy and, he hoped, cars. The European Union, Trump said, would be buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products, though it was not clear over what period of time or even which ones, specifically. In 2024, U.S. exports to the world of oil, gasoline and other refined petroleum products, and natural gas such as LNG – the dominant categories – was less than $300 billion. And most refined petroleum exports stay in the Western Hemisphere. But the European Union is a big market for U.S. exports of oil, petroleum gas and cars. One thing is clear: There is more work to be done before it is clear what the deal on which Trump and van der Leyen shook hands actually is.

EU raises import quotas for Ukrainian wheat and sugar, EU official says
EU raises import quotas for Ukrainian wheat and sugar, EU official says

Yahoo

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

EU raises import quotas for Ukrainian wheat and sugar, EU official says

By Julia Payne BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Union has increased its import quota for Ukrainian wheat to 1.3 million metric tons from 1 million tons as part of a revised free-trade agreement, a senior EU official said on Friday. The EU and Ukraine reached an initial trade deal at the end of June. The EU had temporarily waived duties and quotas on Ukraine's agricultural products in June 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion and resulting threat to its traditional Black Sea shipping lanes. The revised agreement includes 40 goods and still needs to be adopted by a qualified majority of member states. As part of the deal, the EU also increased its import quota for Ukrainian sugar to 100,000 tons from 20,000 tons and its barley import quota to 450,000 tons from 350,000 tons. The import quota on poultry was also increased to 120,000 tons from 90,000 tons.

EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs
EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs

CTV News

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • CTV News

EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs

European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic arrives for a meeting of EU trade ministers at the European Council building in Brussels, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Omar Havana) BRUSSELS — The European Union's goods trade surplus with the United States expanded in April even after U.S. tariffs, data released on Friday showed, while the bloc's exports to China dropped for a ninth consecutive month. The EU's surplus in goods trade as a whole declined to 7.4 billion euros (US$8.5 billion) from 12.7 billion euros in April 2024, data from EU statistics agency Eurostat showed. The EU goods surplus with the United States increased, as it has done every month since January 2024. Both exports to and imports from the United States increased for a fourth consecutive month in April, although the growth was lower than in previous months. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced wideranging tariffs on trade partners, and wants to reduce the U.S. goods trade deficit with the EU. In March, EU exports to the U.S. rose by 59.5 per cent, implying U.S. importers were building stocks of EU and other goods ahead of tariff increases. European Union exporters faced 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 11, on cars from April 3 and on car parts from May 3. Washington doubled the rate on metals to 50 per cent on June 4. It also imposed so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs on most EU goods on April 5, initially at 20 per cent, but almost immediately cut to 10 per cent until July 8. The bloc's surpluses with Britain, Switzerland and Mexico fell, while its deficits with China, Norway and South Korea widened in April. EU exports of machinery and vehicles to the rest of the world fell by 4.3 per cent. There were also declines of its exports of raw materials and energy products, while food and drink and chemicals exports were higher than in April 2024. --- US$1 = 0.8681 euros Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Toby Chopra

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