01-07-2025
Elon Musk Won't Like Experts' Prediction on Tesla's Q2 Results
Visible Data Estimates has forecast that Tesla is set to report a 10% year-over-year decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries on Wednesday at around 400,000 units, down from 440,000 in 2024, according to EVXL. The stakes for Wednesday's results couldn't be higher with Tesla coming off its worst Q1 since 2022. This decline included a 13% drop in vehicle deliveries to 336,681 units year-over-year, and the company's stock fell 36%, erasing $460 billion in market value. Additionally, Tesla increased production from Q2 2024 by 5.7% to 434,000 vehicles.
While Visible Data Estimates is predicting a 10% year-over-year decline for Tesla's Q2 deliveries, Bloomberg is anticipating a 12% drop to 391,000 units. FactSet is expecting a 13% decline to 387,000 vehicles, and Ryan Brinkman, Automotive Equity Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan, is betting on a 19% tumble to 360,000 deliveries. The lowest prediction came from Troy Teslike, an independent analyst with a positive track record for providing accurate Tesla tracking. Teslike revised his estimate to Tesla deliveries dropping 20% year-over-year for Q2 to 355,000. These forecasts represent a spread of 53,000 to 89,000 fewer delivered units, which would be the company's largest annual quarterly decline ever.
Macroeconomic challenges and heightened competition are threatening Tesla's growth sustainability, potentially causing the automaker to downgrade from a global leader to a solid competitor within the expanding electric vehicle (EV) market. These macroeconomic factors include higher interest rates affecting Tesla's more premium offerings and the end of EV subsidies in European markets such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Chinese consumers are also favoring less expensive domestic rivals as the country's electric car price wars intensify. Still, China isn't the only place where Tesla competitors are gaining traction. Chevrolet became the fastest-growing domestic EV brand in the U.S. during Q1, and manufacturers like Rivian are releasing lower-cost models like the R2 during the first half of 2026, attracting interest with a $45,000 price point.
On Friday, Tesla autonomously delivered its first new vehicle from the factory line to a customer's home, representing one of the two primary milestones it wanted to achieve before the end of Q2. During Tesla's Q4 2024 call in January, the company described its other major milestone: "Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next-generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up," according to Teslarati. If Tesla stays on schedule to produce more affordable models, the announcement could help alleviate investor skepticism fueled by low delivery expectations, macroeconomic challenges, and intensifying competition.
If forecasts are accurate, Tesla will be announcing its most significant year-over-year quarterly decline for vehicle deliveries in the company's history. While the fully autonomous delivery of a Tesla from factory to customer has caught attention, it is unlikely to impact the automaker's financial outlook as significantly as positive updates on affordable model production. However, the clock is ticking for Tesla to accomplish this second major milestone for the first half of 2025, as it reports its Q2 results on Wednesday.
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