Latest news with #EagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Most New Jersey voters don't know there's an election coming up: Rutgers-Eagleton poll
Most New Jersey voters don't know there's an election coming up. The primary election for governor will take place on June 10. But according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, conducted in April, most voters can't tell you that. In the poll of 1,058 adults, including 966 registered voters, only 4% could name the correct date when asked when the next election was. Twenty percent said the election would take place at some point in June, including those who got the right month but wrong date. More: New Jersey expands early voting period for state primaries starting in June Thirty-five percent said the next election would be in November, 1% mentioned a special election in their area, 24% said 'other' and 16% said they were unsure. 'Any election not held during a presidential year or not in November has historically seen lower turnout due to less awareness, less interest, and less engagement,' said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, in a news release. 'New Jersey's gubernatorial primaries are the perfect storm for this – typically held in June and never during a presidential year – with turnout in past primaries in the single digits to low double digits.' The poll found that registered voters were not more aware of the primary date than the general population, being only slightly less likely to say they are unsure. Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans and independents to know the correct month. 'Since independents are able to change their registration to vote in the primaries or declare their party at the polls in-person, they can still play an important role in the upcoming election, but they are not as tuned in as their partisan counterparts right now,' Koning said. 'The reality is, if more independents were aware and declared a party, it could potentially change the game for many of the primary candidates, particularly on the Democratic side.' Older voters were more likely to know that an election is taking place in June, according to the poll, while Hispanic voters were less likely than non-Hispanic white or non-Hispanic Black voters to know the date or month. 'Disadvantaged voting groups often go unheard in primaries because they are less aware that they are taking place and therefore less likely to vote,' said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP, in the release. 'Some of these groups are key to candidates' platforms and potential victories, but those who typically vote in primaries are less representation of the population as a whole and more likely to be affluent and well educated.' This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Most NJ voters don't know primary election date: Rutgers-Eagleton poll
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
New Jersey Democrats brace for nail-biter with governor's primary
The Democratic primary for the New Jersey governor's race is a jump ball just more than a month before voters head to the polls. Public polling of the race has been sparse, but the available public and internal surveys have shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) with a small lead over the other five candidates running. But her leads have generally been no more than a few points, often with another candidate within the margin of error behind her. That's given candidates hope that anyone could pull off a win next month in a race where Democrats are favored. 'All of these candidates are within striking distance from one another,' said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. 'It seems like a lot of the voters still aren't sure, still very undecided and can't coalesce around a single candidate.' The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) gradually became more crowded as a half dozen major Democratic candidates launched bids to replace them. All of them bring extensive resumes in New Jersey politics: two House members, two mayors of major cities who have served for more than a decade, a former mayor and current president of the state education labor union, and a former state Senate president who's been an influential powerbroker in state politics for years. Sherrill, a fourth-term House member and former Navy helicopter pilot, appears to be the slight favorite, at least on paper. One of the only consistent trends in polling has been a slight lead for Sherrill. In the most recent public polling from the Eagleton Center, Sherrill led by 5 points over her next-closest opponent, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop. She's also led by varying small amounts in internal polls, including those conducted by other campaigns. Along with receiving the endorsement from most of the county parties in North Jersey, which has the largest population in the state, Sherrill isn't in a bad spot. But her lead in the Eagleton poll was within the margin of error and her leads in other surveys have consistently been in the single digits. With the percentage of undecided voters often being as high as the percentage of Sherrill's support and predicting turnout in an off-year primary being difficult, Koning warned that the state of the race may be different than it appears. 'Just because she's having consistent but small leads doesn't mean in reality she's having a consistent but small lead,' Koning said. 'That kind of misinterpretation would be very reminiscent of what we saw with [Hillary] Clinton back in 2016.' Sherrill's campaign disputed the idea that the race is open, arguing that she is the front-runner based on the polling. Her campaign argued that it has developed a strong field operation and that Sherrill has been willing to appear on traditional and nontraditional media, no matter where voters receive their news. Most of the other Democratic candidates — Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.) — have placed second in at least one recent poll. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney is the only one who hasn't but has still had decent support. The candidates largely agree on many issues, pushing to lower the cost of living in what is one of the most expensive states to live in, investing in clean energy and education, and improving housing affordability. But as the primary has approached, they've increasingly taken shots at each other to argue they're the one who will get their goals accomplished in office. They have also pointed to specific proposals that set themselves apart from the rest. Fulop in particular has sought to call out Sherrill over what he argues are vague positions on the issues and being the choice of the party machine, comparing her to New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy. Murphy ran for Senate in the Democratic primary with the backing of her husband and several party leaders, but she dropped out after struggling to fend off opposition from now-Sen. Andy Kim (D). Sherrill campaign spokesperson Sean Higgins argued Sherill's 'affordability agenda' covers a range of key issues like housing, health care and energy costs, saying a unique policy point is her call for protecting children and democracy online from the harmful effects of social media and Big Tech. 'She's got a really clear vision for the state, and I think her story shows that she has a different kind of leadership that we're seeing resonate in this campaign,' Higgins said. Fulop told The Hill in an interview that the fundamental difference between his campaign and the others' is the 'really detailed policies' he's proposed from day one and the political reform he's called for. '[Voters] want somebody who is more than just a fighter against some of the Trump policies,' he said. 'I think a differentiator is that I talk more about substance on how I'm going to stand up for New Jersey, but people want to hear that.' He argued that voters want to hear a 'clear vision' instead of 'platitudes.' On his website, he's laid out extensive policy proposals on various issues that are all at least a dozen pages long. Fulop expressed optimism about his campaign, arguing that he has the most momentum and is receiving the right signs on the ground from voters. He's positioned himself as an antiestablishment outsider, having crusaded against the county line system that favored county-endorsed candidates and calling for reducing a 'corruption tax' that he argues raises costs because of lobbyists' political power. 'June 10 is going to be, in some ways, kind of a referendum on whose vision is right, whether people want change from that system or they're comfortable with the way it's working,' he said. Gottheimer told The Hill in an interview that he's the only candidate with a 'very specific' plan to cut not just costs but taxes as well, calling for a property tax cut of nearly 15 percent. He also pointed to the recent ad that depicted him fighting President Trump in a boxing ring as showing he won't let 'anybody mess with Jersey.' 'People are just really looking for somebody who's going to take on these costs and taxes and be unafraid to take on Trump,' he said. He noted that 'undecided' has more support in the race than any other candidate but expects that to drop as the primary approaches. 'That's why I'm running around the state,' Gottheimer said. Spiller, who is a former mayor of Montclair, has argued he's set himself apart as the only candidate not receiving contributions from Wall Street and other wealthy donors. 'I'm the one candidate in this race who isn't funded by big corporate PACs, hedge funds, developers, and Wall Street,' he told The Hill in a statement. 'I'm a science teacher, union leader, and immigrant — and New Jerseyans know I'm the one candidate they can trust to stand up to Donald Trump and the wealthy special interests.' Spiller has received some criticism over the millions of dollars that a super PAC with ties to the union he leads has spent to boost him in the race. He's defended himself by arguing that the money is coming from average working people rather than hedge funds. The Hill has reached out to the Baraka and Sweeney campaigns for comment. One major difference for this race is the lack of the county line that previously had been highly influential in primaries in New Jersey. The ballot was designed like a grid, with the candidate who receives the party endorsement in each county usually receiving the first and most optimal spot, making it difficult for other candidates to compete without the endorsement. But a judge struck down the county line as unconstitutional last year, and the governor signed a bill in March officially repealing the county line ballot system. Still, the race could be a test of the influence of the state party in the new era for New Jersey politics. Strategist Julie Roginsky said the removal of the county line system requires party organizations to effectively organize and reach voters rather than relying on the line. She said the candidate who best demonstrates their ability to stand up for New Jersey and oppose Trump may have the best chance of breaking through with the backdrop of this race happening with him in the White House. 'If you are able to authentically, and I use the word authentically purposely, authentically message that you are that fighter, you stand a much better chance of winning that primary,' she said. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
03-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
New Jersey Democrats brace for nail-biter with governor's primary
The Democratic primary for the New Jersey governor's race is a jump ball just more than a month before voters head to the polls. Public polling of the race has been sparse, but the available public and internal surveys have shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) with a small lead over the other five candidates running. But her leads have generally been no more than a few points, often with another candidate within the margin of error behind her. That's given candidates hope that anyone could pull off a win next month in a race where Democrats are favored. 'All of these candidates are within striking distance from one another,' said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. 'It seems like a lot of the voters still aren't sure, still very undecided and can't coalesce around a single candidate.' The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) gradually became more crowded as a half dozen major Democratic candidates launched bids to replace them. All of them bring extensive resumes in New Jersey politics: two House members, two mayors of major cities who have served for more than a decade, a former mayor and current president of the state education labor union, and a former state Senate president who's been an influential powerbroker in state politics for years. Sherrill, a fourth-term House member and former Navy helicopter pilot, appears to be the slight favorite, at least on paper. One of the only consistent trends in polling has been a slight lead for Sherrill. In the most recent public polling from the Eagleton Center, Sherrill led by 5 points over her next-closest opponent, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop. She's also led by varying small amounts in internal polls, including those conducted by other campaigns. Along with receiving the endorsement from most of the county parties in North Jersey, which has the largest population in the state, Sherrill isn't in a bad spot. But her lead in the Eagleton poll was within the margin of error and her leads in other surveys have consistently been in the single digits. With the percentage of undecided voters often being as high as the percentage of Sherrill's support and predicting turnout in an off-year primary being difficult, Koning warned that the state of the race may be different than it appears. 'Just because she's having consistent but small leads doesn't mean in reality she's having a consistent but small lead,' Koning said. 'That kind of misinterpretation would be very reminiscent of what we saw with [Hillary] Clinton back in 2016.' Sherrill's campaign disputed the idea that the race is open, arguing that she is the front-runner based on the polling. Her campaign argued that it has developed a strong field operation and that Sherrill has been willing to appear on traditional and nontraditional media, no matter where voters receive their news. Most of the other Democratic candidates — Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.) — have placed second in at least one recent poll. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney is the only one who hasn't but has still had decent support. The candidates largely agree on many issues, pushing to lower the cost of living in what is one of the most expensive states to live in, investing in clean energy and education, and improving housing affordability. But as the primary has approached, they've increasingly taken shots at each other to argue they're the one who will get their goals accomplished in office. They have also pointed to specific proposals that set themselves apart from the rest. Fulop in particular has sought to call out Sherrill over what he argues are vague positions on the issues and being the choice of the party machine, comparing her to New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy. Murphy ran for Senate in the Democratic primary with the backing of her husband and several party leaders, but she dropped out after struggling to fend off opposition from now-Sen. Andy Kim (D). Sherrill campaign spokesperson Sean Higgins argued Sherill's 'affordability agenda' covers a range of key issues like housing, health care and energy costs, saying a unique policy point is her call for protecting children and democracy online from the harmful effects of social media and Big Tech. 'She's got a really clear vision for the state, and I think her story shows that she has a different kind of leadership that we're seeing resonate in this campaign,' Higgins said. Fulop told The Hill in an interview that the fundamental difference between his campaign and the others' is the 'really detailed policies' he's proposed from day one and the political reform he's called for. '[Voters] want somebody who is more than just a fighter against some of the Trump policies,' he said. 'I think a differentiator is that I talk more about substance on how I'm going to stand up for New Jersey, but people want to hear that.' He argued that voters want to hear a 'clear vision' instead of 'platitudes.' On his website, he's laid out extensive policy proposals on various issues that are all at least a dozen pages long. Fulop expressed optimism about his campaign, arguing that he has the most momentum and is receiving the right signs on the ground from voters. He's positioned himself as an antiestablishment outsider, having crusaded against the county line system that favored county-endorsed candidates and calling for reducing a 'corruption tax' that he argues raises costs because of lobbyists' political power. 'June 10 is going to be, in some ways, kind of a referendum on whose vision is right, whether people want change from that system or they're comfortable with the way it's working,' he said. Gottheimer told The Hill in an interview that he's the only candidate with a 'very specific' plan to cut not just costs but taxes as well, calling for a property tax cut of nearly 15 percent. He also pointed to the recent ad that depicted him fighting President Trump in a boxing ring as showing he won't let 'anybody mess with Jersey.' 'People are just really looking for somebody who's going to take on these costs and taxes and be unafraid to take on Trump,' he said. He noted that 'undecided' has more support in the race than any other candidate but expects that to drop as the primary approaches. 'That's why I'm running around the state,' Gottheimer said. Spiller, who is a former mayor of Montclair, has argued he's set himself apart as the only candidate not receiving contributions from Wall Street and other wealthy donors. 'I'm the one candidate in this race who isn't funded by big corporate PACs, hedge funds, developers, and Wall Street,' he told The Hill in a statement. 'I'm a science teacher, union leader, and immigrant — and New Jerseyans know I'm the one candidate they can trust to stand up to Donald Trump and the wealthy special interests.' Spiller has received some criticism over the millions of dollars that a super PAC with ties to the union he leads has spent to boost him in the race. He's defended himself by arguing that the money is coming from average working people rather than hedge funds. The Hill has reached out to the Baraka and Sweeney campaigns for comment. One major difference for this race is the lack of the county line that previously had been highly influential in primaries in New Jersey. The ballot was designed like a grid, with the candidate who receives the party endorsement in each county usually receiving the first and most optimal spot, making it difficult for other candidates to compete without the endorsement. But a judge struck down the county line as unconstitutional last year, and the governor signed a bill in March officially repealing the county line ballot system. 2024 Election Coverage Still, the race could be a test of the influence of the state party in the new era for New Jersey politics. Strategist Julie Roginsky said the removal of the county line system requires party organizations to effectively organize and reach voters rather than relying on the line. She said the candidate who best demonstrates their ability to stand up for New Jersey and oppose Trump may have the best chance of breaking through with the backdrop of this race happening with him in the White House. 'If you are able to authentically, and I use the word authentically purposely, authentically message that you are that fighter, you stand a much better chance of winning that primary,' she said.
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Democrats neck and neck in New Jersey governor's primary: Poll
Several of the Democrats running for governor of New Jersey are neck and neck with one another less than two months away from the June primary, according to a poll released Friday. The results from Rutgers University's Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill out in front with 17 percent support, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop with 12 percent, whose deficit is within the poll's margin of error. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller received 10 percent, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka received 9 percent apiece. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney had 7 percent. About a third said they were unsure who they support, and 4 percent said their pick was none of those candidates. The race is to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy (D), who is term-limited after being elected to the governor's mansion twice. The poll is the first independent survey of the race in months and one of the only ones that hasn't been affiliated with a candidate's campaign. But the internal polls have showed similar results so far, with the four-term House member Sherrill holding a slight lead over the next-closest candidate. Which of the other candidates has placed second has varied from poll to poll but most commonly has been Fulop, Baraka or Spiller. Sherrill is the only Democratic candidate with a net positive favorability rating, with 20 percent viewing her favorably and 14 percent viewing her unfavorably. But 22 percent said they have no opinion of her, and 44 percent said they don't know who she is. Most of the other candidates either roughly break even or are just slightly underwater in net favorability, except for Sweeney, who has a net favorability rating of negative 8 points. But a clear majority say regarding all of the candidates that they haven't heard of them or have no opinion. 'All of the candidates have made some progress since the fall in terms of voters knowing who they are, but they haven't made noticeable gains in favorability,' Eagleton Center Director Ashley Koning said in a release. 'Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters.' On the Republican side, former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli, who was the 2021 GOP nominee for governor, appears to be the front-runner for the nomination again with 42 percent support from registered voters. Former radio host Bill Spadea is in second with 12 percent, while 4 percent backed state Sen. Jon Bramnick. But a third said they're unsure, and 4 percent said they would support none of the candidates. One question mark in the race has been whether President Trump will endorse a candidate for the nomination and potentially give them a boost. Ciattarelli and Spadea have battled with each other over who has been more supportive of Trump, while Bramnick has been more critical of the president. Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac has also argued that he has been the true backer of Trump's agenda, but he received no support in the poll. Former Gov. Chris Christie, who won the 2009 and 2013 elections, is the only Republican to have led the Garden State since 2002. The poll was conducted from April 1-10 among 1,058 adults, including 966 registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample is 4.1 points, while the margin for registered voters is 4.3 points. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
25-04-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Democrats neck and neck in New Jersey governor's primary: Poll
Several of the Democrats running for governor of New Jersey are neck and neck with each other less than two months away from the June primary, according to a new poll released Friday. The results from Rutgers University's Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill with a slight lead at 17 percent support, though she's followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop with 12 percent, trailing within the margin of error. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller received 10 percent, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each received 9 percent. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney had 7 percent. About a third said they were unsure who they support, and 4 percent said none of these candidates. The race is to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy (D), who is term-limited after being elected to twice. The poll is the first independent survey of the race in months and one of the only ones that hasn't been affiliated with a candidate's campaign. But the internal polls have showed similar results so far, with the four-term House member Sherrill as the slight lead with a narrow margin over her next closest opponent. Which of the other candidates has placed second has varied from poll to poll but most commonly has been Fulop, Baraka or Spiller. Sherrill is the only Democratic candidate with a net positive favorability rating, with 20 percent viewing her favorably and 14 percent viewing her unfavorably. But 22 percent said they have no opinion of her and 44 percent said they don't know who she is. Most of the other candidates either roughly break even or are just slightly underwater in net favorability, except for Sweeney, who has a net favorability rating of –8 points. But a clear majority say regarding all of the candidates that they haven't heard of them or have no opinion. 'All of the candidates have made some progress since the fall in terms of voters knowing who they are, but they haven't made noticeable gains in favorability,' said Eagleton Center Director Ashley Koning in a release. 'Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters.' On the Republican side, former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli, who was the 2021 GOP nominee for governor, appears to be the front-runner for the nomination again with 42 percent support from registered voters. Former radio host Bill Spadea is in second with 12 percent, while 4 percent backed state Sen. Jon Bramnick. But a third said they're unsure and 4 percent said they would support none of the candidates. One question mark in the race has been whether President Trump will endorse a candidate for the nomination and potentially give them a boost. Ciattarelli and Spadea have battled with each other over who has been more supportive of Trump, while Bramnick has been more critical of the president. Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac has also argued that he has been the true backer of Trump's agenda, but he received no support in the poll. The poll was conducted from April 1 to 10 among 1,058 adults, including 966 registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample is 4.1 points, while the margin for registered voters is 4.3 points.
