New Jersey Democrats brace for nail-biter with governor's primary

The Hill

03-05-2025

The Democratic primary for the New Jersey governor's race is a jump ball just more than a month before voters head to the polls.
Public polling of the race has been sparse, but the available public and internal surveys have shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) with a small lead over the other five candidates running. But her leads have generally been no more than a few points, often with another candidate within the margin of error behind her.
That's given candidates hope that anyone could pull off a win next month in a race where Democrats are favored.
'All of these candidates are within striking distance from one another,' said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. 'It seems like a lot of the voters still aren't sure, still very undecided and can't coalesce around a single candidate.'
The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) gradually became more crowded as a half dozen major Democratic candidates launched bids to replace them.
All of them bring extensive resumes in New Jersey politics: two House members, two mayors of major cities who have served for more than a decade, a former mayor and current president of the state education labor union, and a former state Senate president who's been an influential powerbroker in state politics for years.
Sherrill, a fourth-term House member and former Navy helicopter pilot, appears to be the slight favorite, at least on paper.
One of the only consistent trends in polling has been a slight lead for Sherrill. In the most recent public polling from the Eagleton Center, Sherrill led by 5 points over her next-closest opponent, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.
She's also led by varying small amounts in internal polls, including those conducted by other campaigns. Along with receiving the endorsement from most of the county parties in North Jersey, which has the largest population in the state, Sherrill isn't in a bad spot.
But her lead in the Eagleton poll was within the margin of error and her leads in other surveys have consistently been in the single digits. With the percentage of undecided voters often being as high as the percentage of Sherrill's support and predicting turnout in an off-year primary being difficult, Koning warned that the state of the race may be different than it appears.
'Just because she's having consistent but small leads doesn't mean in reality she's having a consistent but small lead,' Koning said. 'That kind of misinterpretation would be very reminiscent of what we saw with [Hillary] Clinton back in 2016.'
Sherrill's campaign disputed the idea that the race is open, arguing that she is the front-runner based on the polling. Her campaign argued that it has developed a strong field operation and that Sherrill has been willing to appear on traditional and nontraditional media, no matter where voters receive their news.
Most of the other Democratic candidates — Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.) — have placed second in at least one recent poll. Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney is the only one who hasn't but has still had decent support.
The candidates largely agree on many issues, pushing to lower the cost of living in what is one of the most expensive states to live in, investing in clean energy and education, and improving housing affordability. But as the primary has approached, they've increasingly taken shots at each other to argue they're the one who will get their goals accomplished in office.
They have also pointed to specific proposals that set themselves apart from the rest.
Fulop in particular has sought to call out Sherrill over what he argues are vague positions on the issues and being the choice of the party machine, comparing her to New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy.
Murphy ran for Senate in the Democratic primary with the backing of her husband and several party leaders, but she dropped out after struggling to fend off opposition from now-Sen. Andy Kim (D).
Sherrill campaign spokesperson Sean Higgins argued Sherill's 'affordability agenda' covers a range of key issues like housing, health care and energy costs, saying a unique policy point is her call for protecting children and democracy online from the harmful effects of social media and Big Tech.
'She's got a really clear vision for the state, and I think her story shows that she has a different kind of leadership that we're seeing resonate in this campaign,' Higgins said.
Fulop told The Hill in an interview that the fundamental difference between his campaign and the others' is the 'really detailed policies' he's proposed from day one and the political reform he's called for.
'[Voters] want somebody who is more than just a fighter against some of the Trump policies,' he said. 'I think a differentiator is that I talk more about substance on how I'm going to stand up for New Jersey, but people want to hear that.'
He argued that voters want to hear a 'clear vision' instead of 'platitudes.'
On his website, he's laid out extensive policy proposals on various issues that are all at least a dozen pages long.
Fulop expressed optimism about his campaign, arguing that he has the most momentum and is receiving the right signs on the ground from voters. He's positioned himself as an antiestablishment outsider, having crusaded against the county line system that favored county-endorsed candidates and calling for reducing a 'corruption tax' that he argues raises costs because of lobbyists' political power.
'June 10 is going to be, in some ways, kind of a referendum on whose vision is right, whether people want change from that system or they're comfortable with the way it's working,' he said.
Gottheimer told The Hill in an interview that he's the only candidate with a 'very specific' plan to cut not just costs but taxes as well, calling for a property tax cut of nearly 15 percent. He also pointed to the recent ad that depicted him fighting President Trump in a boxing ring as showing he won't let 'anybody mess with Jersey.'
'People are just really looking for somebody who's going to take on these costs and taxes and be unafraid to take on Trump,' he said.
He noted that 'undecided' has more support in the race than any other candidate but expects that to drop as the primary approaches.
'That's why I'm running around the state,' Gottheimer said.
Spiller, who is a former mayor of Montclair, has argued he's set himself apart as the only candidate not receiving contributions from Wall Street and other wealthy donors.
'I'm the one candidate in this race who isn't funded by big corporate PACs, hedge funds, developers, and Wall Street,' he told The Hill in a statement. 'I'm a science teacher, union leader, and immigrant — and New Jerseyans know I'm the one candidate they can trust to stand up to Donald Trump and the wealthy special interests.'
Spiller has received some criticism over the millions of dollars that a super PAC with ties to the union he leads has spent to boost him in the race. He's defended himself by arguing that the money is coming from average working people rather than hedge funds.
The Hill has reached out to the Baraka and Sweeney campaigns for comment.
One major difference for this race is the lack of the county line that previously had been highly influential in primaries in New Jersey. The ballot was designed like a grid, with the candidate who receives the party endorsement in each county usually receiving the first and most optimal spot, making it difficult for other candidates to compete without the endorsement.
But a judge struck down the county line as unconstitutional last year, and the governor signed a bill in March officially repealing the county line ballot system.
2024 Election Coverage
Still, the race could be a test of the influence of the state party in the new era for New Jersey politics.
Strategist Julie Roginsky said the removal of the county line system requires party organizations to effectively organize and reach voters rather than relying on the line. She said the candidate who best demonstrates their ability to stand up for New Jersey and oppose Trump may have the best chance of breaking through with the backdrop of this race happening with him in the White House.
'If you are able to authentically, and I use the word authentically purposely, authentically message that you are that fighter, you stand a much better chance of winning that primary,' she said.