Latest news with #EconomicInsight
Zawya
06-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Qatar's economic growth expected to 'broadly steady' this year; sharp pickup seen in 2026: NBK
Qatar's economic growth is expected to broadly steady this year before accelerating sharply in 2026, according to National Bank of its latest 'Economic Insight', NBK said Qatar's fiscal accounts are expected to show surplus and public debt to fall in 2026. Qatar's economic growth is expected to broadly steady this year before accelerating sharply in 2026, according to National Bank of Kuwait (NBK). In its latest 'Economic Insight', NBK said Qatar's fiscal accounts are expected to show surplus and public debt to fall in 2026. 'Economic growth in Qatar is expected broadly steady in 2025 at 2.4% before accelerating sharply to 5.5% in 2026,' NBK noted. In Qatar, the cyclical downturn following the 2022 World Cup boom has faded and growth is seen accelerating again on stronger tourism activity, new government initiatives, and increased LNG production, National Bank of Kuwait said in its 'Economic Insight'. Hydrocarbon GDP will play an increasingly vital role in shaping Qatar's medium-term growth outlook (+9.8% in 2026), with the giant offshore North Field gas expansion project nearing completion, the report said. LNG output expansion is set to generate a 63% jump in already massive capacity by 2027-2028 (to 127mn tonnes per year - mtpy) and will eventually have positive knock-on effects on non-hydrocarbon GDP, as higher resulting revenues are channelled back into the economy to meet the next wave of development goals. Qatar's Third National Development Strategy targets an annual average growth of 4% in 2024-2030, also helped by business efficiency, FDI-promoting and innovation-enhancing reforms. Goals include growing labour productivity by 2% per year, attracting $100bn in cumulative FDI and developing specialised economic 'growth' clusters in manufacturing, logistics and tourism. The fiscal accounts should continue to show a surplus over the forecast horizon, from 2.3% of GDP in 2025 to a wider 4.5% of GDP next year as the first LNG trains from the gas expansion project come online. In recent years, Qatar's budget surpluses were deployed to lower outstanding public debt, a trend that will likely continue in the medium term; public debt could fall to 34% of GDP by 2026. According to NBK, downside risks to the outlook include a more severe than expected global economic downturn that weakens energy prices, and potentially lower prices for LNG in the event of global market excess supply. 'That said, the scale of Qatar's imminent energy output expansion and domestic investment targets should provide some degree of resilience against international headwinds,' the bank noted. The report also covered Oman and Bahrain and according to NBK, Bahrain's fiscal deficits are seen widening amid lower oil prices and still-elevated interest rates, despite repeated consolidation efforts. Following sustained reform implementation, Oman's positive economic performance is seen continuing with non-oil expansion, fiscal surpluses and a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, it said. © Gulf Times Newspaper 2022 Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. ( Pratap John
Zawya
19-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
GCC economy seen growing by 4% in 2025 despite global trade uncertainty
Muscat: The GCC economy is expected to show resilience in the face of rising global protectionism and geopolitical tensions, according to the latest ICAEW Economic Insight report, prepared by Oxford Economics. Despite the uncertain global trade and economic outlook, the report forecasts that GCC economies will grow by 4% in 2025, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2024. While US President Donald Trump's tariff policies have created uncertainty over external demand, the GCC remains largely insulated from direct tariff impacts. The region's non-energy sectors are projected to grow by 4.4% this year, up from an estimated 3.9% in 2024, with regional PMI data firmly in expansionary territory, according to the ICAEW report. GCC growth to withstand tariff headwinds Following recent OPEC+ policy shifts, oil production will gradually increase from April, boosting oil-sector growth to 3.2% after two years of contraction. Saudi Arabia's oil output is expected to reach 9.3mn barrels per day, driving oil sector growth of 1.9%, while the UAE's higher quota of 3.5mn barrels per day will support 4.8% growth. Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks due to tariff threats and increased OPEC+ supply, with prices forecast to average $70.5 per barrel this year, down from $80.5 in 2024. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to lead non-oil sector growth with 5.8% and 4.8%, respectively. Tourism – the fastest-growing sector across the region in 2024 – will remain a key driver of growth, with Saudi Arabia expecting continued expansion, supported by the GCC-wide visa initiative. Qatar's GDP is forecast to expand by 2.1% this year, with growth expected to more than double in 2026 as additional LNG capacity comes online. The non-energy economy is projected to grow by 2.9% this year, remaining the primary growth driver. Bahrain's economy is set to double its growth rate to 2.8% this year, with the non-oil economy expanding by 3.1%. The oil sector, after contracting by an estimated 2.4% in 2024, is expected to see a modest recovery of 0.9%. Hanadi Khalife, Head of Middle East at ICAEW, said, 'The business landscape across the GCC continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic uncertainty. We are seeing strong investment in key sectors like tourism and infrastructure, which are creating new opportunities for growth.' Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor and Chief Economist and Managing Director at Oxford Economics Middle East, said, 'The GCC's projected 4% growth in 2025 highlights the region's ability to withstand external pressures while advancing its diversification efforts. Despite softer oil prices, the gradual easing of OPEC+ production cuts will support energy sector growth after two years of contraction.' According to the ICAEW report, the aggregate GCC inflation projection for 2025 remains at 2.3%, with inflation expected to stabilise around 2% in the medium term. Recent readings show inflation is below 1% in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar, while in Saudi Arabia – the region's largest economy – inflation averaged 1.7% in 2024, driven almost exclusively by rising housing rents. Regional budgets this year continue to balance fiscal discipline with sustainable economic growth, with a strong focus on social development, including education and healthcare. 'Given our oil price and production forecasts, and expectations of a modest rise in government spending, we anticipate the aggregate GCC budget position will be broadly balanced, thanks to surpluses in Qatar and the UAE,' ICAEW said. Meanwhile, the report expects Saudi Arabia to run a budget deficit of 3% of GDP as the government pursues strategic investments. © Apex Press and Publishing Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
19-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Bahrain economy projected to hit 2.8% GDP growth in 2025
Bahrain's economy is projected to gather pace, reaching 2.8 per cent GDP growth in 2025, even with global economic headwinds, according to the latest Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Economic Insight report, prepared by Oxford Economics. This positive outlook aligns with the broader GCC resilience, which is forecast to experience 4pc growth, up from an estimated 1.8pc in 2024. According to ICAEW economic adviser and Oxford Economics Middle East chief economist and managing director Scott Livermore, the GCC's projected 4pc growth in 2025 highlights the region's ability to withstand external pressures while advancing its diversification efforts. On Bahrain, the report highlights the kingdom's successful diversification efforts, with the non-oil sector contributing 86pc to overall GDP in 2024, demonstrating the country's progress in moving away from oil dependency. Notably, non-oil GDP growth is anticipated to reach 3.1pc in 2025, driven by strong performances in sectors like accommodation and food services, financial activities, and insurance. The island nation's strategic initiatives, such as the Gateway Gulf event, which secured $12 billion in deals across key sectors, underscore its commitment to diversification. Ongoing projects, including a $427 million waterfront development and the $221m Exhibition World Bahrain convention centre, operating since November 2022, are set to bolster tourism, a vital growth engine. To attract foreign direct investment (FDI), Bahrain is establishing new industrial free zones in Muharraq, near Bahrain International Airport, targeting the foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, and garments industries. Initiatives like the Golden Licence, introduced in 2023, have already proven effective in attracting FDI into financial services, manufacturing, and technology. While oil GDP contracted by 2.4pc in 2024, the report forecasts a 0.9pc growth in 2025, driven by the $6 billion Bapco Modernisation Programme, which aims to increase refining capacity to 400,000 barrels per day by end-2025. Bapco Energies' successful $500m funding for the Bahrain Field Expansion and Development Programme further reinforces this positive outlook. However, the report also notes that lower oil prices, forecasted to average $70.5 per barrel in 2025, may constrain the sector's fiscal impact, given the kingdom's higher breakeven price. The GCC region's non-energy sectors are projected to grow by 4.4pc this year, up from an estimated 3.9pc in 2024, with regional PMI data firmly in expansionary territory. Following recent Opec+ policy shifts, oil production will gradually increase from April, boosting oil-sector growth to 3.2pc. 'Despite softer oil prices, the gradual easing of Opec+ production cuts will support energy sector growth after two years of contraction,' explained Mr Livermore. Inflation in Bahrain is projected to rise to 2.8pc in 2025, potentially impacting consumer spending. The fiscal balance is expected to remain in deficit, with debt levels exceeding 100pc of GDP. However, initiatives like the 15pc domestic top-up tax for multinational enterprises and a multi-year fiscal consolidation plan aim to enhance economic sustainability. The report also acknowledges the potential impact of US trade policies, particularly under President Trump. While the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement could strengthen economic ties, potential tariff shifts could introduce uncertainties, even as the GCC remains largely sheltered from direct tariff impacts. The kingdom's workforce is set to expand, driven by rising migration trends and updated UN population projections. This growth will be crucial for enhancing productivity and furthering diversification efforts across core sectors. Commenting on the regional outlook, ICAEW head of Middle East Hanadi Khalife said: 'The business landscape across the GCC continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic uncertainty. We're seeing strong investment in key sectors like tourism and infrastructure, which are creating new opportunities for growth.' avinash@
Zawya
18-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
ICAEW Q1 Economic Update: GCC growth to withstand trade uncertainty
Qatar: GDP growth to rise to 2.1% before more than doubling in 2026-27 as new liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity comes online Bahrain: Economic growth expected to double to 2.8% this year, with the non-oil economy expanding by 3.1% United Arab Emirates: The GCC economy is expected to show resilience in the face of rising global protectionism and geopolitical tensions, according to the latest ICAEW Economic Insight report prepared by Oxford Economics. Despite the uncertain global outlook, the report forecasts Middle East GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025, with GCC economies set to grow by 4%, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2024. GCC: Regional growth will withstand tariff headwinds While President Trump's tariff policies have created uncertainty over external demand, the GCC remains largely sheltered from direct tariff impacts. The region's non-energy sectors are projected to grow by 4.4% this year, up from an estimated 3.9% in 2024, with regional PMI data firmly in expansionary territory. Following recent OPEC+ policy shifts, oil production will gradually increase from April, boosting oil-sector growth to 3.2% after two years of contraction. Saudi Arabia's, oil output is expected to reach 9.3 million barrels per day, driving oil sector growth of 1.9%, while the UAE's higher quota of 3.5 million barrels per day will support 4.8% growth. Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks due to tariff threats and increased OPEC+ supply, with prices forecast to average $70.5 per barrel this year, down from $80.5 in 2024. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to lead non-oil sector growth with 5.8% and 4.8% respectively. Tourism – the fastest-growing sector across the region in 2024 – will remain a vital engine for growth, with Saudi Arabia expecting continued expansion supported by the GCC-wide visa. Qatar: GDP growth will gain pace despite external headwinds Qatar's GDP is forecast to expand by 2.1% this year, with growth expected to more than double in 2026 as additional LNG capacity comes online. The non-energy economy is projected to grow by 2.9% this year, remaining the primary growth engine. Tourism has provided significant support to Qatar's non-energy growth, with overnight arrivals reaching 5 million by end-2024, a 23% increase on 2023. The launch of the pan-GCC visa, is expected to push visitor numbers to 5.3 million in 2025. The fiscal surplus is forecast at QAR27.3bn (3.3% of GDP) in 2025, significantly better than the deficit of QAR13.2bn pencilled into this year's budget. Bahrain: The non-oil economy will continue to lead growth Bahrain's economy is set to double its growth rate to 2.8% this year, with the non-oil economy expanding by 3.1%. The oil sector, after contracting by an estimated 2.4% in 2024, is expected to see a modest 0.9% recovery. As part of its diversification efforts, Bahrain is establishing new industrial free zones and developing tourism infrastructure, including a $427 million waterfront project. However, persistent budget deficits and a rising debt burden above 100% of GDP pose downside risks to growth. Hanadi Khalife, Head of Middle East, ICAEW, said: 'The business landscape across the GCC continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic uncertainty. We're seeing strong investment in key sectors like tourism and infrastructure, which are creating new opportunities for growth.' Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor, and Chief Economist and Managing Director, Oxford Economics Middle East, said: 'The GCC's projected 4% growth in 2025 highlights the region's ability to withstand external pressures while advancing its diversification efforts. Despite softer oil prices, the gradual easing of OPEC+ production cuts will support energy sector growth after two years of contraction.' -Ends- Link to the report: HERE Media enquiries: Layth Kamal, Mojo PR, on email icaew@ About ICAEW Chartered accountants are talented, ethical and committed professionals. ICAEW represents more than 208,000 members and students around the world. Founded in 1880, ICAEW has a long history of serving the public interest and we continue to work with governments, regulators and business leaders globally. And, as a world-leading improvement regulator, we supervise and monitor over 12,000 firms, holding them, and all ICAEW members and students, to the highest standards of professional competency and conduct. We promote inclusivity, diversity and fairness and we give talented professionals the skills and values they need to build resilient businesses, economies and societies, while ensuring our planet's resources are managed sustainably. ICAEW is the first major professional body to be carbon neutral, demonstrating our commitment to tackle climate change and supporting UN Sustainable Development Goal 13. ICAEW is a founding member of Chartered Accountants Worldwide (CAW), a global family that connects over 1.8m chartered accountants and students in more than 190 countries. Together, we support, develop and promote the role of chartered accountants as trusted business leaders, difference makers and advisers. We believe that chartered accountancy can be a force for positive change. By sharing our insight, expertise and understanding we can help to create sustainable economies and a better future for all. About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the world's foremost advisory firms, providing analysis on 200 countries, 100 industries and 3,000 cities. Their analytical tools provide an unparalleled ability to forecast economic trends and their economic, social and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore and offices around the world, they employ one of the world's largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists.
