Latest news with #EconomicResearchDepartment
Hans India
22-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Every 1 in 5 GST taxpayers in India now a woman: SBI Research
New Delhi: There are over 1.52 crore active Goods and Services Tax (GST) registrations and one-fifth of registered GST taxpayers in India now have at least one woman, and 14 per cent of registered taxpayers have all female members (on the basis of the constitution of business), an SBI report revealed on Tuesday. This representation is substantially high in limited liability partnership (LLP) and private limited companies and the vectors of increased formalization and momentum in corporate playbook augur well for equitable representation in the offing, according to the SBI's Economic Research Department report. 'This data, along-with 15 per cent share of women in overall income taxpayers and 40 per cent in overall deposits, mirrors women empowerment,' said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI. In just five years (FY21-FY25), gross GST collection doubled and even average monthly gross GST collection is now Rs 2 lakh crore. Top five states account for 41 per cent of gross revenue and six states have crossed Rs 1 lakh crore mark, Dr Ghosh added. States having GST collection of more than Rs 1 lakh crore have Integrated Goods and Service Tax (IGST) share of more than 30 per cent in their total domestic collection, emphasising the contribution of larger states in pushing GST collection across other states. On July 1, the GST completed eight years since its rollout. Introduced in 2017 as a major step towards economic integration, GST replaced a maze of indirect taxes with a single, unified system. It made tax compliance easier, reduced costs for businesses, and allowed goods to move freely across states. By improving transparency and efficiency, GST helped lay the foundation for a stronger, more integrated economy. 'Our results indicate that convergence pattern strengthens over time, peaking in FY25 across all quantiles. By FY25, convergence is strong across the spectrum, indicating a broad-based equalising effect of GST,' said Dr Ghosh. Surprisingly, some of the larger and richer states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and even Karnataka have low share in active GST taxpayers vis-a-vis the state's share in overall GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product). 'Interestingly, states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat share in total GST taxpayers is larger than the state's share in overall GSDP. This indicate that there is still a vast untapped potential in GST in these states,' the report mentioned.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Opening India's dairy to US to cause Rs 1.03 lakh crore loss to farmers: SBI
Milk prices in India could drop atleast 15%, causing potential annual loss of Rs 1.03 lakh crore to dairy farmers and increase milk imports by 25 million tonnes if the dairy sector is opened up to the US as part of the proposed trade deal, State Bank of India (SBI) said Monday. 'If we assume 15% drop in domestic milk price then total revenue loss would be Rs 1.8 lakh crore. Assuming farmer's share as 60% and adjusting for change in supply due to price drop the annual loss to farmers comes around Rs 1.03 lakh crore,' SBI said in a report by its Economic Research Department, adding that the GVA loss can be approximated to 50% of the total loss or Rs 0.51 lakh crore. A 15% decline in price of milk will lead to higher demand for milk amounting to 14 million tonnes while supply will decline by around 11 million tonnes, it said. This gap of around 25 million tonnes will be fulfilled by imports The bank also cautioned that one of the 'significant costs' by opening up the Indian agri and dairy sectors to the US would be threat to livelihoods of the Indian farmers, especially the small ones engaged in dairy production as the dairy sector is heavily subsidized in the US. GM concerns 'The use of growth hormones and genetically modified organisms in dairy in the US is another area of conflict. The influx of GM foods in India will also increase once the sector is opened up. This could pose public health standards conflict,' it said. Opening of agriculture and dairy sector are the sticking points between India and the US. 'Thus, India's quest to safeguard its strategic interests, aligned to welfare of the bottom strata appears to be a prudent rationale, in sync with safeguarding of rural livelihoods,' SBI said. India's gains As per the report, since Japan, Malaysia and South Korea face higher tariff than India, India can try to capture some of their chemicals export share. India can seize another 1% share from these countries in chemical exports to the US, which can add 0.1% to its GDP. Currently, India's share of apparel exports in the US imports is 6% and if it can capture another 5% from these countries, then it can add 0.1% to its GDP, it said. Access to US market for high-value agri products such as organic foods and spices to the US market is one of the potential benefits of the pact, SBI said. India exports less than $1 billion of these goods and has potential to export more than $3 billion based on the US demand for these. 'Currently, non-tariff barriers limit Ayush and generics exports, once lifted it can increase exports of these by $1-2 billion,' it said. Moreover, easier visa norms or outsourcing access can further increase our exports of IT and services.
India.com
21-05-2025
- Business
- India.com
India's GDP Growth In Q4 FY25 To Remain Robust Around 6.4-6.5%: SBI Report
Despite weathering effects precipitated by global upheavals, Indian economy stays largely resilient and is projected to clock a GDP growth around 6.4-6.5 per cent in Q4 FY25, an SBI report said on Wednesday. To estimate GDP statistically, the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has built a 'Nowcasting Model' with 36 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy. The model uses the dynamic factor model to estimate the common or representative or latent factor of all the high frequency indicators from Q4 of FY13 to Q2 of FY23. 'As per our 'Nowcasting Model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 FY25 should come around 6.4-6.5 per cent,' said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI. Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 estimates in the upcoming data release by NSO, 'we expect FY25 GDP to stand at 6.3 per cent,' Ghosh mentioned. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala within the next four to five days — well ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as anticipated, it would mark the earliest onset over mainland India since 2009, when it began on May 23. 'India is targeting 354.64 million tonnes of foodgrain production in the 2025-26 crop year starting July on the forecast of better monsoon rains. In the current 2024-25 crop year, the government had set a target of 341.55 million tonnes of foodgrain production (so far: 332.3 million tonnes),' the SBI report mentioned. Further, taking a cue from household survey, slowdown in current household inflation expectations encourages higher discretionary spending and drives demand-led growth while status quo in consumer confidence suggests that households are uncertain about the global developments and economic prospects – caution somewhat writ large on sustainable growth from a short-term perspective. The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. AS per IMF, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026. 'For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in FY25 (6.3 per cent for FY26), supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 30 bps lower than the earlier estimate on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,' the report mentioned.
Hans India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
India's GDP growth in Q4 FY25 to remain robust around 6.4-6.5 pc: SBI report
New Delhi: Despite weathering effects precipitated by global upheavals, Indian economy stays largely resilient and is projected to clock a GDP growth around 6.4-6.5 per cent in Q4 FY25, an SBI report said on Wednesday. To estimate GDP statistically, the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has built a 'Nowcasting Model' with 36 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy. The model uses the dynamic factor model to estimate the common or representative or latent factor of all the high frequency indicators from Q4 of FY13 to Q2 of FY23. 'As per our 'Nowcasting Model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 FY25 should come around 6.4-6.5 per cent,' said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI. Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 estimates in the upcoming data release by NSO, 'we expect FY25 GDP to stand at 6.3 per cent,' Ghosh mentioned. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala within the next four to five days — well ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as anticipated, it would mark the earliest onset over mainland India since 2009, when it began on May 23. 'India is targeting 354.64 million tonnes of foodgrain production in the 2025-26 crop year starting July on the forecast of better monsoon rains. In the current 2024-25 crop year, the government had set a target of 341.55 million tonnes of foodgrain production (so far: 332.3 million tonnes),' the SBI report mentioned. Further, taking a cue from household survey, slowdown in current household inflation expectations encourages higher discretionary spending and drives demand-led growth while status quo in consumer confidence suggests that households are uncertain about the global developments and economic prospects – caution somewhat writ large on sustainable growth from a short-term perspective. The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. AS per IMF, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026. 'For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in FY25 (6.3 per cent for FY26), supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 30 bps lower than the earlier estimate on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,' the report mentioned.
Hans India
07-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
India-UK FTA bypasses China's dependence, navigates US tariffs: SBI report
New Delhi: India and the United Kingdom have signed a landmark free trade agreement (FTA), momentous not only in quantitative magnitude -- encompassing reductions across 90 per cent of tariff lines -- but also in its emblematic stature as a recalibration of post-globalisation economic strategy, an SBI report said on Wednesday. The FTA signal a new global trade strategy, bypassing China's dependence, navigating US tariffs and reshaping post BREXIT Britain. The FTA takes place in the backdrop of growing economic relations between India and the UK as exemplified in the bilateral trade of about $60 billion which is projected to double by 2030. India's exports in FY25 outpaced a 6.1 per cent contraction in imports. The FTA, spanning goods, services, and technology, seeks to foster inclusive growth, resilient supply chains, and employment generation, according to the report by State Bank of India's Economic Research Department. Liberalisation in the UK sectors such as IT, finance, education, and consumer goods unlocks labour-intensive export potential in Indian industries like textiles, toys, marine products, and auto components. 'While immigration policy remains static, the accord enables select professional mobility - around 1,800-2,000 visas annually for chefs, musicians, and yogis—fusing economic pragmatism with cultural diplomacy,' said the report. Milestone features include expanded access to telecom and renewables, digital trade facilitation, emphasis on green goods, reciprocal social security arrangements, and UK access to Indian public procurement as class-2 suppliers. Concurrently, India advances negotiations with the EU, Australia, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Oman, and reviews existing pacts with South Korea and ASEAN — signalling a broader strategic reconstitution of its global trade architecture. 'India-UK FTA is not merely a transactional accord but a dialectical moment in the evolution of twenty-first-century trade philosophy—where national interest and moral purpose converge in a new synthesis of strategic liberalism,' the report noted. India has signed 13 FTAs with its trading partners. The country is currently negotiating the following FTAs with its trading partners: India-EU FTA, India Australia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), India-Peru Trade Agreement, covering goods, services and investment, India-Sri Lanka Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) and India-Oman FTA. Moreover, India has also initiated review of its existing FTAs, namely, India-South Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA).
