Latest news with #EdwardRobinson
Independent Singapore
2 days ago
- Business
- Independent Singapore
Asia must stay flexible and avoid revenge moves, warns top economist
Monetary Authority of Singapore (Credit: MAS) SINGAPORE: Edward S. Robinson, Deputy Managing Director (Economic Policy) and Chief Economist at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), warned Asia's economies against getting involved in or initiating punitive trade measures as trade barriers surge all over the world. Speaking at the 12th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, Robinson advised that such reactions can do more damage than good, especially for Asia's tiny, open economies that profoundly depend on transnational trade, as reported by the Singapore Business Review. 'For Asia's small open economies, global tariffs pose a major challenge,' Robinson said. 'With trade dependencies in the region sometimes exceeding 100% of GDP (gross domestic product), the ripple effects may be severe: reduced production, and possibly, renewed capital outflows.' Tariffs hurt both sides of the trade divide Robinson stressed that isolationist strategies such as tariffs regularly do not carry their envisioned economic gains. Rather than fixing trade disparities, they escalate costs for households and businesses, and hinder economic productivity. He contended that the genuine drivers behind the deterioration in manufacturing employment rest in deeper operational deviations such as computerisation and ever-changing consumer behaviors, not trade shortages. 'Both the targeted and tariff-imposing economies suffer,' he said, underscoring the broader economic fallout from such policies. Call for integration and structural reforms Instead of engaging in trade wars, Robinson advised Asian legislators and politicians to exert more effort in strengthening regional trade integration and transition toward high-growth domains such as services and digital economies. He also underscored the necessity of systemic reforms, including workforce competency building, to better adjust to the changing international economic scenario. Robinson highlighted that régimes must prudently install and position the suitable policy mechanisms, steered by cautious and calculated forecasting, to direct the international economy toward a stable, well-adjusted, and sustainable fine-tuning path. He cautions that any unexpected or inept movements, labeled as 'fragmented impulses,' could undermine the international monetary structure. Such unsystematic moves, he warns, bring the danger of activating grave financial disturbances, possibly ending in a protracted and extensive global downturn. Thus, attaining stability requires not only the appropriate tools but also lucid and concerted global policymaking. See also N. Korea warns US-S. Korea drills will affect nuclear talks According to Robinson, 'These efforts will not only help manage short-term shocks but also build long-term resilience across Asia's economies.'
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia must not succumb to tariff retaliation, Singapore cbank official says
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian economies must remain agile and not succumb to tit-for-tat tariff retaliation, a deputy managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore said on Friday. Retaliatory tariffs would lead to negative supply shifts that would worsen the growth-inflation trade-off and complicate monetary policy, Edward Robinson, who is also the MAS's chief economist, told a monetary policy conference."They should continue to keep the old advice to avoid throwing rocks into their own harvest and intensify regional trade integration initiatives, including in digital and services trade, and investment," Robinson said. Protectionism and import taxes disrupt resource allocation and lower the consumer surplus as domestic households face higher prices and fewer choices, he said. "Both the targeted and the tariff-imposing economies suffer." Despite having a free-trade agreement and running a trade deficit with the United States, Singapore has been slapped with a 10% baseline tariff rate by Washington. Other Southeast Asian countries have been threatened with much higher tariffs, although they have been delayed until July and an interim 10% tariff is in place for now. Singapore on Thursday reported a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter, even before U.S. tariffs were announced, putting the economy at risk of a technical recession. The MAS eased policy at reviews in January and April this year. Speaking on Thursday after the GDP data, Robinson said the current monetary policy stance remained appropriate.
TimesLIVE
23-05-2025
- Business
- TimesLIVE
Asia must not succumb to tariff retaliation: Singapore central bank official
Asian economies must remain agile and not succumb to tit-for-tat tariff retaliation, a deputy MD of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said on Friday. Retaliatory tariffs would lead to negative supply shifts that would worsen the growth-inflation trade-off and complicate monetary policy, Edward Robinson, who is also the MAS' chief economist, told a monetary policy conference. 'They should continue to keep the old advice to avoid throwing rocks into their own harvest and intensify regional trade integration initiatives, including in digital and services trade and investment,' Robinson said. Protectionism and import taxes disrupt resource allocation and lower the consumer surplus as domestic households face higher prices and fewer choices, he said. 'Both the targeted and the tariff-imposing economies suffer.' Despite having a free-trade agreement and running a trade deficit with the US, Singapore has been slapped with a 10% baseline tariff rate by Washington. Other Southeast Asian countries have been threatened with much higher tariffs, though they have been delayed until July and an interim 10% tariff is in place for now. Singapore on Thursday reported a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter, even before US tariffs were announced, putting the economy at risk of a technical recession. The MAS eased policy at reviews in January and April this year. Speaking on Thursday after the GDP data, Robinson said the monetary policy stance remained appropriate.
New Straits Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Asia must not succumb to tariff retaliation, Singapore central bank official says
SINGAPORE: Asian economies must remain agile and not succumb to tit-for-tat tariff retaliation, a deputy managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore said on Friday. Retaliatory tariffs would lead to negative supply shifts that would worsen the growth-inflation trade-off and complicate monetary policy, Edward Robinson, who is also the MAS's chief economist, told a monetary policy conference. "They should continue to keep the old advice to avoid throwing rocks into their own harvest and intensify regional trade integration initiatives, including in digital and services trade, and investment," Robinson said. Protectionism and import taxes disrupt resource allocation and lower the consumer surplus as domestic households face higher prices and fewer choices, he said. Despite having a free-trade agreement and running a trade deficit with the United States, Singapore has been slapped with a 10 per cent baseline tariff rate by Washington. Other Southeast Asian countries have been threatened with much higher tariffs, although they have been delayed until July and an interim 10 per cent tariff is in place for now. Singapore on Thursday reported a 0.6 per cent contraction in the first quarter, even before US tariffs were announced, putting the economy at risk of a technical recession. The MAS eased policy at reviews in January and April this year. Speaking on Thursday after the GDP data, Robinson said the current monetary policy stance remained appropriate.
Business Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Need for fiscal, monetary policy reset as US tariffs throw global economy off course: MAS economist
[SINGAPORE] With US tariffs disrupting the global economy's path to equilibrium, fiscal and monetary policies are due for a reset, said Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) chief economist Edward Robinson on Friday (May 23). In 2024, the global economy was showing signs of recovery, with inflation easing, growth holding steady at potential and central banks starting to cut rates, he noted. Yet, this path has been disrupted by US unpredictability. Speaking at the 12th Asian Monetary Policy Forum at Conrad Singapore Orchard, Robinson noted that a tariff war can deliver both demand and supply shocks. For export-oriented economies such as Singapore, 'demand shocks probably dominate'. But countries that impose retaliatory tariffs – and perhaps others too – will suffer negative supply shocks. This will worsen the trade-off between growth and inflation, making it difficult to set monetary policy. The challenge is greater for countries with higher public-sector debt from the Covid period. Even as central banks aim to secure the 'optimal path of adjustment for global imbalances', they must use the right instruments, underpinned by a commitment to multilateralism, he stressed. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up He warned against hasty, expedient action that might fragment the global monetary system, risking 'severe financial ruptures and a deep global recession'. The potential damage from trade wars is amplified by supply chain integration, he noted, with two-thirds of international trade now happening within cross-border value chains. Investments in production networks made during an era of free trade – with components crossing borders before final assembly – might face 'an abrupt repricing' of Tobin's q, which reflects an asset's market value. This could create a wave of 'stranded assets', Robinson said. A better future However, Robinson raised a more optimistic possibility if countries work together and refrain from retaliation. Trade can adapt to become more regional and services intensive. The global economy will converge towards stable inflation, with interest rates easing slowly, while growth will slow to slightly below trend for a while. But this requires coordinated action, he said. Nations with large current account surpluses must spend more and accept some currency appreciation. Countries with deficits would adjust in the opposite direction. This rebalancing of surpluses and deficits should be funded by stable capital flows, he added. International financial institutions should continue to provide oversight, while geopolitical tensions dissipate. Speaking after Robinson at the event, Peterson Institute for International Economics president Adam Posen agreed that plurilateralism is needed to set standards and create networks. The US dollar's centrality in the global economy is being reduced for economic and foreign policy reasons, as the currency becomes a source of risk rather than security, he said. The US dollar has traditionally dominated due to a lack of viable alternatives and the country's security relationships, said Posen. But now, security or financial relationships with the US no longer provide the same quality of 'insurance'. This is prompting countries to seek alternatives, including 'self-insurance'. The European Union is spending more on defence, and there is discussion about how having a digital euro is an important step to avoid the risk of arbitrary sanctions. In Asia, terms 'that we thought were gone 15 or 20 years ago' such as the Asian Monetary Fund and Chiang Mai Initiative – a regional currency swap agreement – are seeing a revival. 'These are all forms of self insurance in the absence of a good insurer from the US.'
