Latest news with #El-Erian
CairoScene
21-05-2025
- Business
- CairoScene
Egyptian Economist Nominated for Cambridge University Chancellor
Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College, announces candidacy for Chancellor of Cambridge University. May 21, 2025 Mohamed El-Erian, an Egyptian-American economist and President of Queens' College at Cambridge University, has officially announced his candidacy for the position of Chancellor at Cambridge University. This role, held for a ten-year term, is a significant leadership position within the university. El-Erian, who has served as President of Queens' College for the past five years, has a longstanding relationship with Cambridge, having earned his undergraduate degree in economics from Queens' College and being awarded an honorary fellowship in 2013. He has contributed to various university committees and co-chaired the university's major fundraising campaign, Collegiate Cambridge, alongside Sir Harvey McGrath. His philanthropic efforts have significantly impacted the college and university, funding scholarships, research initiatives, fellowships, and the establishment of the Institute for Human Behavior and Economic Policy. El-Erian received over 250 nominations for the chancellorship, surpassing the required number and reflecting broad support from alumni and university members.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Top economist El-Erian says tariffs have put the era of U.S. exceptionalism ‘on pause'
Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said U.S. exceptionalism was 'on pause' and warned about the negative effects of a prolonged trade war. He said tariffs could be used as a tool for renegotiating better trade terms, but a longer trade war could harm the U.S. instead of protecting U.S. industry. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said the era of U.S. exceptionalism is at a standstill, although it's still not over. El-Erian, who is also president of Queen's College at the University of Cambridge, told MarketWatch that he was not completely opposed to tariffs, but warned about the implications of a prolonged trade war on the U.S. as a whole. 'It's been put on pause,' El-Erian said of American exceptionalism. 'It's too early to say if the damage inflicted is irreversible.' El-Erian said that a strategy of elevating tariffs to work out better trade terms with other countries and then de-escalating could be beneficial, but the idea of levying tariffs to raise external revenue while also protecting U.S. industry makes little sense. 'Some of these objectives are contradictory,' he said, adding that this kind of move is 'liable to inflict collateral damage.' As a result of a prolonged trade war, other countries may put their own tariffs on China or start their own tariff escalations amongst each other, leading to higher prices worldwide. El-Erian's comments come as trade negotiations continue, with the U.K. most recently having struck a deal with the U.S. earlier this month. The U.S. maintained a 10% duty on most U.K. goods but lowered tariffs on a set number of British auto imports, and exempted U.K. steel and aluminum from tariffs. The U.K. agreed to eliminate tariffs on a quota of up to 13,000 metric tons of American beef and 1.4 billion liters of ethanol. Still, the Trump administration has been slow to reach agreements with other foreign countries, and last week the president said the government would set tariff rates for the rest of the world over the 'next couple of weeks,' adding that those rates would be higher than the 10% rate agreed to with the U.K. For years, the strong economy and exceptionalism of American industry led to 'the world outsourcing its savings to America,' El-Erian noted. Yet, it's unclear if this trend will continue in the future, as investors look to offload their American assets. On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5%, after Moody's became the last credit agency to strip the U.S. of the highest credit rating possible. In a Monday post on X, El-Erian wrote that Moody's downgrade wasn't too consequential but was still 'enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt.' This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Wall Street's brightest minds think about the US-China trade deal
Investors have cheered the US-China trade talks, sending stocks soaring on Monday. While the deal has removed some risks weighing on stocks, some say tariffs are still a threat. Here's what some of Wall Street's top commentators have to say as US-China trade tensions cool. The US-China trade deal gave markets a huge boost on Monday, but progress on tariffs over the weekend still leaves some risks to stocks and the economy intact, top Wall Street commentators say. The US is set to lower the tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China plans to cut its tariff rate on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days as negotiations continue. Investors, who had been closely watching for signs of easing in recent weeks, are relieved. Yet the reaction is varied among some of Wall Street's top voices, who see an improved outlook for the US economy but are still eyeing risks to the market ahead. Here's what some of Wall Street's brightest minds have to say. The trade deal isn't signaling an all clear for markets, Allianz's chief economic advisor said. That's partly because tariffs will still stoke inflationary pressures in the economy, even though a lower rate on imports will allow for some economic activity between the US and China, he said. "It's not a straight line. And you're going to be really frustrated when you hear the opinion of economists like me," El-Erian said of his market outlook when speaking Monday with CNBC. El-Erian said economic activity would likely be higher than expected for the next 90 days because of short-term optimism on the trade agreement. Still, he saw the Federal Reserve issuing fewer rate cuts in 2025 and pushing them further down the road as it monitors inflation. "My own gut feeling is we will get some slowing in the economy. We will get some higher inflation. But most CEOs will remain in the wait-and-see," he said, adding that there was still uncertainty around the economic, political, and national security implications of the deal. The Morgan Stanley chief investment officer said he believed stocks had already hit a "trough" after President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs fueled a historic sell-off. He also doubled down on his forecast that the S&P 500 would reach 6,500 by the end of the year, a gain of about 12%. Dialed-back tariffs could give the Fed more room to cut interest rates this year, Wilson added, a move that would boost risk assets like stocks. "If tariffs aren't going to be as onerous, they can now start looking at this dual mandate again, and saying, 'Hey, the growth picture is maybe a little bit better, but if we're going to err on the side of policy, probably to help the growth side than maybe the inflation side, if the tariffs aren't going to be as bad,'" Wilson told CNBC. He added that the risk of a recession had also "come down meaningfully," assuming that negotiations with China hold true. That, along with a weaker US dollar, brightens the outlook for corporate earnings. "I feel better that the second half now, from a rated change standpoint, can be better than what people were expecting because the first half was actually worse than what people were expecting," Wilson said of his outlook on stocks. Apollo's top economist said the trade agreement could easily boost the US economy's growth. That's because the trade deal has removed a "major tail risk" from the economy, Sløk said, referring to fears that trade between the US and China would shut off completely under the original tariffs. The deal could cause consumers, corporations, and foreigners to regain confidence in the US economy and markets, which could provide a tailwind to growth. Markets are starting to focus more on the impact of inflation stemming from tariffs. Traders are now pricing in two rate cuts for the year, down from three to four cuts they expected in the prior week, Sløk said. Still, investors appear confident that the more positive outlook for growth will outweigh the inflationary impact of tariffs, he said. "So it's very clear that by removing this tail risk and the risk of a recession, we now have the markets saying, 'Well, maybe the growth outlook is not that bad.' And maybe therefore, yes, inflation will still go up, but if we still have that GDP growth is going to be still OK, at least for now, we will eventually get a tailwind as a result of removing this tail risk," he added. Evercore's founder said the main issue with the trade deal is that the terms aren't final yet. "It's encouraging. It's very encouraging. But it's preliminary," Altman told CNBC. "It's essentially a 90-day pause on the ultrahigh tariffs in order to negotiate to try to get a permanent framework, permanent tariff reduction framework, and other progress." The US and China still have to negotiate on several "tough" issues, Altman said, pointing to the fact that many of China's products are heavily subsidized by the government. If the costs for those goods were "objectively set" for the US and European markets, prices in those nations could rise, he said. Meanwhile, the overall US tariff rate is still sharply higher than it was before Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Even considering the 90-day pause and framework for trade negotiations with China, the US's overall rate will likely be pushed up to about 14%, Altman estimated, up from about 3% to 4% during then-President Joe Biden's term. "That will still be a drag, when we all know what tariffs do," he said. "As Chairman Powell said, they raise prices, reduce consumption, raise inflation." Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Wall Street's brightest minds think about the US-China trade deal
Investors have cheered the US-China trade talks, sending stocks soaring on Monday. While the deal has removed some risks weighing on stocks, some say tariffs are still a threat. Here's what some of Wall Street's top commentators have to say as US-China trade tensions cool. The US-China trade deal gave markets a huge boost on Monday, but progress on tariffs over the weekend still leaves some risks to stocks and the economy intact, top Wall Street commentators say. The US is set to lower the tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China plans to cut its tariff rate on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days as negotiations continue. Investors, who had been closely watching for signs of easing in recent weeks, are relieved. Yet the reaction is varied among some of Wall Street's top voices, who see an improved outlook for the US economy but are still eyeing risks to the market ahead. Here's what some of Wall Street's brightest minds have to say. The trade deal isn't signaling an all clear for markets, Allianz's chief economic advisor said. That's partly because tariffs will still stoke inflationary pressures in the economy, even though a lower rate on imports will allow for some economic activity between the US and China, he said. "It's not a straight line. And you're going to be really frustrated when you hear the opinion of economists like me," El-Erian said of his market outlook when speaking Monday with CNBC. El-Erian said economic activity would likely be higher than expected for the next 90 days because of short-term optimism on the trade agreement. Still, he saw the Federal Reserve issuing fewer rate cuts in 2025 and pushing them further down the road as it monitors inflation. "My own gut feeling is we will get some slowing in the economy. We will get some higher inflation. But most CEOs will remain in the wait-and-see," he said, adding that there was still uncertainty around the economic, political, and national security implications of the deal. The Morgan Stanley chief investment officer said he believed stocks had already hit a "trough" after President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs fueled a historic sell-off. He also doubled down on his forecast that the S&P 500 would reach 6,500 by the end of the year, a gain of about 12%. Dialed-back tariffs could give the Fed more room to cut interest rates this year, Wilson added, a move that would boost risk assets like stocks. "If tariffs aren't going to be as onerous, they can now start looking at this dual mandate again, and saying, 'Hey, the growth picture is maybe a little bit better, but if we're going to err on the side of policy, probably to help the growth side than maybe the inflation side, if the tariffs aren't going to be as bad,'" Wilson told CNBC. He added that the risk of a recession had also "come down meaningfully," assuming that negotiations with China hold true. That, along with a weaker US dollar, brightens the outlook for corporate earnings. "I feel better that the second half now, from a rated change standpoint, can be better than what people were expecting because the first half was actually worse than what people were expecting," Wilson said of his outlook on stocks. Apollo's top economist said the trade agreement could easily boost the US economy's growth. That's because the trade deal has removed a "major tail risk" from the economy, Sløk said, referring to fears that trade between the US and China would shut off completely under the original tariffs. The deal could cause consumers, corporations, and foreigners to regain confidence in the US economy and markets, which could provide a tailwind to growth. Markets are starting to focus more on the impact of inflation stemming from tariffs. Traders are now pricing in two rate cuts for the year, down from three to four cuts they expected in the prior week, Sløk said. Still, investors appear confident that the more positive outlook for growth will outweigh the inflationary impact of tariffs, he said. "So it's very clear that by removing this tail risk and the risk of a recession, we now have the markets saying, 'Well, maybe the growth outlook is not that bad.' And maybe therefore, yes, inflation will still go up, but if we still have that GDP growth is going to be still OK, at least for now, we will eventually get a tailwind as a result of removing this tail risk," he added. Evercore's founder said the main issue with the trade deal is that the terms aren't final yet. "It's encouraging. It's very encouraging. But it's preliminary," Altman told CNBC. "It's essentially a 90-day pause on the ultrahigh tariffs in order to negotiate to try to get a permanent framework, permanent tariff reduction framework, and other progress." The US and China still have to negotiate on several "tough" issues, Altman said, pointing to the fact that many of China's products are heavily subsidized by the government. If the costs for those goods were "objectively set" for the US and European markets, prices in those nations could rise, he said. Meanwhile, the overall US tariff rate is still sharply higher than it was before Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Even considering the 90-day pause and framework for trade negotiations with China, the US's overall rate will likely be pushed up to about 14%, Altman estimated, up from about 3% to 4% during then-President Joe Biden's term. "That will still be a drag, when we all know what tariffs do," he said. "As Chairman Powell said, they raise prices, reduce consumption, raise inflation." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
What Wall Street's brightest minds think about the US-China trade deal
The US-China trade deal is giving markets a huge boost on Monday, but progress on tariffs over the weekend still leaves some risks to stocks and the economy intact, top Wall Street commentators say. US stocks climbed on Monday after the US announced its trade agreement with China. The US will lower the tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its tariff rate on US goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days while negotiations continue. Investors, who have been closely watching for signs of progress on the deal in recent weeks, are relieved. Yet, the reaction is varied among some of Wall Street's top voices, who see an improved outlook for the US economy but are still eyeing risks to the market ahead. Here's what some of Wall Street's brightest minds have to say. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor, Allianz The trade deal isn't signaling an all clear for markets, according to the Allianz chief economic advisor. That's partly because tariffs will still stoke inflationary pressures in the economy, even though a lower tariff rate on imports will allow for "some" economic activity between the US and China. "It's not a straight line. And you're going to be really frustrated when you hear the opinion of economists like me," El-Erian said of his market outlook when speaking to CNBC on Monday. El-Erian said economic activity will likely be higher than expected for the next 90 days due to short-term optimism on the trade agreement. Still, he saw the Fed issuing fewer rate cuts in 2025 and pushing them further down the road as the central bank monitors inflation. "My own gut feeling is we will get some slowing in the economy. We will get some higher inflation. But most CEOs will remain in the wait-and-see," he added, noting that there was still uncertainty around the economic, political, and national security implications of the deal. Mike Wilson, chief investment officer, Morgan Stanley The Morgan Stanley CIO said he believes stocks already hit a "trough" after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs fueled a historic sell-off. He also doubled down on his forecast that the S&P 500 will reach 6,500 by the end of the year, a gain of about 12%. Tariffs being dialed back could give the Fed more room to cut interest rates this year, Wilson added, a move that will boost risk assets like stocks. "If tariffs aren't going to be as onerous, they can now start looking at this dual mandate again, and saying, hey, the growth picture is maybe a little bit better, but if we're going to err on the side of policy, probably to help the growth side than maybe the inflation side, if the tariffs aren't going to be as bad," Wilson said, speaking to CNBC. He added that the risk of a recession has also "come down meaningfully," assuming that negotiations with China hold true. That, along with a weaker US dollar, brightens the outlook for corporate earnings. "I feel better that the second half now, from a rated change standpoint, can be better than what people were expecting, because the first half was actually worse than what people were expecting," Wilson said of his outlook on stocks. Torsten Sløk, chief economist, Apollo Apollo's top economist said the trade agreement could easily boost the US economy's growth. That's because the trade deal has removed a "major tail risk" from the economy, Sløk said, referring to fears that trade between the US and China would shut off completely under the original tariffs. The trade deal could cause consumers, corporations, and foreigners to regain confidence in the US economy and markets, which could provide a tailwind to growth. Markets are starting to focus more on the potential impact of inflation stemming from tariffs. Traders are now pricing in two rate cuts for the year, down from three to four cuts the prior week, Sløk noted. Still, investors appear confident that the more positive outlook for growth will outweigh the inflationary impact of tariffs, he said. "So it's very clear that by removing this tail risk and the risk of a recession, we now have the markets saying, 'Well, maybe the growth outlook is not that bad.' And maybe therefore, yes, inflation will still go up, but if we still have that GDP growth is going to be still okay, at least for now, we will eventually get a tailwind as a result of removing this tail risk," he added. Roger Altman, founder, Evercore According to Evercore founder Roger Altman, the main issue with the trade deal is that the terms aren't final yet. "It's encouraging. It's very encouraging. But it's preliminary," Altman said, speaking to CNBC. "It's essentially a 90-day pause on the ultra-high tariffs in order to negotiate to try to get a permanent framework, permanent tariff reduction framework, and other progress." The US and China still have to negotiate on several "tough" issues, Altman noted, pointing to the fact that many of China's products are heavily subsidized by the government. If the costs for those goods were "objectively set" for the US and European markets, prices in those nations could rise, he said. Meanwhile, the overall US tariff rate is still sharply higher than it was before April 2. Even considering the 90-day pause and framework for trade negotiations with China, the US's overall tariff rate will likely be pushed up to around 14%, Altman estimated, up from around 3%-4% during President Biden's term. "That will still be a drag, when we all know what tariffs do. As Chairman Powell said, they raise prices, reduce consumption, raise inflation."
