Latest news with #ElNiñoSouthernOscillation
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busy: How that could impact Tennessee
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, and like in 2024, we could see impacts here in Tennessee. The Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1st to November 30th. During the typical season, there are 14 named storms, with seven of those strengthening to a hurricane, and three of them becoming major hurricanes. Want the forecast delivered directly to your inbox? Sign up for the News 2 Forecast Newsletter The forecast from NOAA is for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of those hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Remember, a storm gets named when it reaches a minimum tropical storm strength. That means it has sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. Hurricanes have winds over 74 mph, and major hurricanes have winds over 111 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This means the wind speed of the storm determines the category. The scale goes from category 1 to 5. NOAA says there are a couple of factors that caused them to forecast an active season. They said the neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can lead to an increase in storms in the Atlantic. ENSO is the ocean current in the southern Pacific Ocean, and it can impact the Atlantic Hurricane season as well as our weather during the winter. RADAR | Track weather across TN live The other reason they are forecasting an active hurricane season is that the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and the Atlantic are warmer than normal. Warm sea surface temperatures are what help fuel hurricanes. Above normal activity has been common over the last several years. Eight out of the last 10 years have seen 15 or more named storms, and in 2020, we saw the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 30 storms! In the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there were 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes, and 5 strengthened to major hurricanes. Last hurricane season, we saw impacts from 3 hurricanes here in Tennessee. The biggest impacts came from Hurricane Helene, with the historic/devastating flooding in East Tennessee. Hurricane Francine brought heavy rain and a low tornado threat to middle Tennessee. Hurricane Beryl caused tornadoes in Arkansas and heavy rain in West Tennessee. It's rare to see impacts from three hurricanes in Tennessee, but with the active forecast, we could see tropical impacts this year. ⏩ The main threats from hurricanes here in Tennessee are flooding and tornadoes. By the time hurricanes reach the Volunteer State, they are typically weakened to just tropical depression strength. This means damaging winds aren't a threat like they are when they first make landfall. During the months of August, September, and October, tornadoes are extremely rare in Tennessee, but if we see the remnants of a hurricane, we can get tornadoes. They are typically weak, short-lived tornadoes of EF-0 or EF-1 strength. Here is a list of the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
IMD raises monsoon rain outlook to 106% of the long-period average
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), up from 105 per cent predicted in April. It also expects June rainfall to be 'above normal', at over 108 per cent of the LPA. Cumulative monsoon rainfall between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA during the June-September period is considered 'above normal'. The seasonal LPA for the country, calculated over the period from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres. The forecast for seasonal June-September rainfall carries a margin of error of +/- 4 per cent. The agency said rainfall across nearly all of India's homogenous regions — except the Northeast and parts of Bihar — was likely to be normal to above normal this year. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya could see below-normal rains, according to IMD's regional outlook. 'Above-normal' June rainfall is expected to keep maximum temperatures across most of India at or below seasonal averages, with no heat waves anticipated. The month typically receives 165.4 millimetres of rainfall. Monsoon rainfall in the 'core zone' — which comprises key rain-fed agricultural regions — is also forecast to be above normal, with a 56 per cent probability of strong precipitation. Good monsoon rain across key rainfed regions in central and western India could significantly boost pulses and oilseed output, potentially reducing the country's dependence on high-cost imports. Overall, a strong and well-distributed southwest monsoon is expected to bolster kharif crop production and leave behind significant residual soil moisture for a healthy rabi harvest. Agriculture was projected to account for about 16.35 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) in FY25, according to the government's second advance estimate. A robust harvest could help the government curb food inflation and provide more room for the Reserve Bank of India to cut benchmark interest rates in FY26. It may also encourage the government to be more liberal on farm exports. The central bank has forecast 6.5 per cent GDP growth and 4 per cent retail inflation for FY26. Food inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, dropped to 1.78 per cent in April, from 2.69 per cent in March. Oils & fats and fruit were the only categories with double-digit inflation in April. 'Currently, neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific regions, while the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, as well as other model forecasts, indicates that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another factor that could influence Indian monsoon, is also expected to be weakly negative,' said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. He expressed confidence in the agency's 'above normal' forecast, citing improved accuracy in recent years. He said that between 2021 and 2024, IMD's average absolute error of the operational forecast was 2.28 per cent of the LPA for the second-stage forecast, and 3.15 per cent of the LPA for the first-stage forecast. 'This was well within the error range of +/- 4 per cent,' Mohapatra said. While the average absolute error of the forecast for the previous four years (2017 to 2020) of both first and second-stage forecasts was 7.5 per cent of the LPA. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24 this year, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached the southern state on May 23. The primary rain-bearing system set in over Mumbai 16 days before the usual date, making it the earliest since 1950. The southwest monsoon usually makes its onset over Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11, and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15. Meteorologists caution that the date of monsoon onset has no direct correlation with overall seasonal rainfall. Early or late arrival in Kerala or Mumbai doesn't necessarily determine the rain's progress or distribution elsewhere in the country, which is determined by large-scale variabilities and global, regional and local features. India saw 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in 2024 — 108 per cent of the average. In 2023, it had recorded 820 millimetres, 94.4 per cent of the average. It had seen 925 millimetres of rainfall in 2022; 870 millimetres in 2021; and 958 millimetres in 2020, according to the IMD data. (With agency inputs)
Time of India
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Monsoon-like rain fury stuns all in Pune; orange and yellow alerts in parts of Maharashtra
Pune: May has brought unusually intense rainfall in parts of Maharashtra, with the city recording significant precipitation that makes it feel more like monsoon. Rainfall figures from 8:30am till 8.30pm on Tuesday showed Chinchwad recorded the highest rainfall at a staggering 80mm, followed by Lavale at 34.2mm and Lohegaon at 33.8mm. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Shivajinagar registered 23.6mm of rainfall and Koregaon Park (KP) 5.5mm. The intense showers accompanied by thunder and lightning caused severe waterlogging in multiple areas across the city, further complicating the situation for residents and commuters. An IMD official explained the unusual monsoon-like pattern: "It's due to the setting of westerlies early this year. Global factors such as El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are favourable for a good monsoon this year. These climate patterns are showing positive indicators that could lead to above-normal rainfall during the actual monsoon season." The official added: "The current thunderstorms are pre-monsoon showers because of moisture incursion from westerlies from the Arabian Sea." As per an India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 4-5 days. The usual date for the onset over Kerala — which marks the beginning of the four-month-long southwest monsoon over the country — is June 1. For the next few days too, parts of Maharashtra are on a yellow and orange alert for rains. Pune city is likely to see moderate rainfall as well as thunder and lightning activity during the next few days. Abhijit Modak, an independent weather forecaster, explained why it feels like the monsoon in May itself. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now "This May has been quite unique. A strong Western Disturbance extended unusually far south, reaching into the Arabian Sea. This not only brought rainfall with it but also disrupted the typical quasi-stationary high-pressure system over the north to west-central Arabian Sea. Normally, this high-pressure system drives hot northerly and northwesterly winds from Gujarat and Rajasthan towards Maharashtra. " He said: "However, this pattern was disrupted by the strong Western Disturbance. Additionally, a recent Western Disturbance also drew moisture from the south, and the seasonal line of wind discontinuity further contributed to scattered thunderstorm activity across the region over the past 10 days.". Modak said the southwest monsoon has made an early onset, arriving about a week ahead of schedule over the Indian territory of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. "This early monsoon onset has intensified the east-west shear zone, contributing to the development of an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal. All indications suggest a wetter-than-usual May for the region." IMD has issued an orange alert for ghats of Pune, Kolhapur, and Satara districts as well as other parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra, warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall in the coming days. Several other districts in Marathwada and Vidarbha have been placed under yellow alert as intensifies across the region.
News18
20-05-2025
- Climate
- News18
Mumbai Monsoon Mayhem: What's Behind Early Onset Of Rains In Maharashtra? Explained
Last Updated: Orange alert has been issued for Raigad, Nashik, Pune, Satara and Kolhapur. This year, Mumbai received showers coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds as early as May 6 Mumbai is set to witness early monsoon this month, with the city already receiving more than 85 mm of rainfall in May. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a yellow alert for Mumbai and Konkan region of Maharashtra for the next four days. Orange alert has been issued for places such as Raigad, Nashik, Pune, Satara and Kolhapur amongst others. This year, Mumbai started receiving intermittent rain coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds as early as May 6. May has been the wettest May month since 2021. As per the Colaba coastal observatory, the city has already recorded 85.2 mm of rainfall, and the Santacruz station has logged 47.4 mm until Monday morning. Why Is Mumbai Receiving Early Rain? Mumbai is not new to unseasonal rainfall during the summer season. Why this year is an anomaly because the showers, which set in very early, have been prolonged, albeit sparse, and continued throughout the past two weeks, a report by an Indian Express report. Experts say the region experienced early showers between May 6 and May 8 due to upper-level trough formed by western disturbance. IMD Meteorologist Kashyapi told Pune Mirror, 'The monsoon is progressing swiftly. It is likely to reach Kerala by May 27—earlier than its usual date. Based on current movement, it could reach Maharashtra about five to six days ahead of schedule." An expert, Shubhangi Bhute, Director of IMD Mumbai, quoted by The Indian Express, attributed the favourable monsoon conditions to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 'Presently, neutral El Nino as well as neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. These neutral conditions may contribute to good monsoon spells and also are likely to result in favourable conditions of early monsoon onset," said Bhute. ENSO is an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that is considered one of the most important recurring natural events. It influences the Indian monsoon between June and September. What Is Monsoon Prediction For Mumbai? Traditionally, the monsoon reaches Konkan by June 5, Pune by June 10, and Mumbai by June 11. However, this year, the region is expected to receive pre-monsoon showers and early monsoon rains well in advance of these dates. Widespread rainfall expected in coming days. Several parts of Maharashtra are already witnessing rainfall activity, and this trend is expected to continue. For instance, in Vidarbha, rain forecast for the next five days; Konkan: rain likely on May 19 and 20; Central Maharashtra and Marathwada: Showers expected on May 20 and 21. Additionally, Pune, Satara, Solapur, Sangli, and the Ghat sections are likely to experience heavy rainfall with thunder, lightning, and wind speeds of 50–60 kmph over the next three days. On May 19, Ahilyanagar, Dhule, and Nashik may also receive light to moderate rain, especially in the hilly regions. Rain is expected in Palghar, North Madhya Maharashtra, Jalna, Hingoli, Nanded, and other districts on May 19, 20, and 21. As per current projections, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to enter Kerala by May 28, which is much before the normal. After this, it generally takes between 8 to 10 days for the Southwest Monsoon to reach and surpass Maharashtra. First Published: May 20, 2025, 11:33 IST
News18
20-05-2025
- Climate
- News18
Mumbai Weather Update: When Is Monsoon Arriving In The City? Here's What IMD Says
Last Updated: Mumbai braces for a wet week with heavy rain and thunderstorms. The city recorded its wettest May since 2021 and may see an early monsoon. Mumbai Weather Updates: Mumbai is preparing for a wet week ahead despite already experiencing its heaviest May rainfall in four years, driven by unusual showers. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a yellow alert warning of heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms across Mumbai and the broader Konkan region over the next four days. An orange alert has been issued for areas such as Raigad, Nashik, Pune, Satara, and Kolhapur, warning of potentially extremely heavy rainfall. This May, Mumbai recorded over 85 mm of rain, marking its wettest May since 2021. The frequent rains also brought a significant drop in temperatures, with the city recording its coldest May day since 1951 on May 8. Between May 6 and 11, Mumbai received intense rainfall, followed by a brief pause in heavy showers, though light drizzle persisted early Monday. Meanwhile, other parts of Maharashtra continued to grapple with heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. When Is Monsoon Arriving In Mumbai? Shubhangi Bhute, Director of IMD Mumbai, confirmed that pre-monsoon showers began in the city after May 13. Speaking to The Indian Express, Bhute indicated that Mumbai could experience an earlier-than-usual monsoon this year. Traditionally, the official monsoon onset date for Mumbai is June 11. According to current forecasts, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala by May 28, well ahead of its usual schedule. Following its arrival in Kerala, the monsoon typically takes around 8 to 10 days to reach Maharashtra and surrounding areas. IMD official Shetty suggested that Mumbai might witness the onset of monsoon rains as early as the first week of June this year. Bhute explained that the favorable conditions for an early monsoon are largely due to neutral phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 'At present, neutral El Niño and neutral IOD conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. These neutral phases are likely to support robust monsoon activity and could lead to an earlier onset of the monsoon," Bhute told The Indian Express. First Published: May 20, 2025, 10:37 IST
