Mumbai Monsoon Mayhem: What's Behind Early Onset Of Rains In Maharashtra? Explained
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Orange alert has been issued for Raigad, Nashik, Pune, Satara and Kolhapur. This year, Mumbai received showers coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds as early as May 6
Mumbai is set to witness early monsoon this month, with the city already receiving more than 85 mm of rainfall in May. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a yellow alert for Mumbai and Konkan region of Maharashtra for the next four days.
Orange alert has been issued for places such as Raigad, Nashik, Pune, Satara and Kolhapur amongst others.
This year, Mumbai started receiving intermittent rain coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds as early as May 6.
May has been the wettest May month since 2021. As per the Colaba coastal observatory, the city has already recorded 85.2 mm of rainfall, and the Santacruz station has logged 47.4 mm until Monday morning.
Why Is Mumbai Receiving Early Rain?
Mumbai is not new to unseasonal rainfall during the summer season. Why this year is an anomaly because the showers, which set in very early, have been prolonged, albeit sparse, and continued throughout the past two weeks, a report by an Indian Express report.
Experts say the region experienced early showers between May 6 and May 8 due to upper-level trough formed by western disturbance.
IMD Meteorologist Kashyapi told Pune Mirror, 'The monsoon is progressing swiftly. It is likely to reach Kerala by May 27—earlier than its usual date. Based on current movement, it could reach Maharashtra about five to six days ahead of schedule."
An expert, Shubhangi Bhute, Director of IMD Mumbai, quoted by The Indian Express, attributed the favourable monsoon conditions to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 'Presently, neutral El Nino as well as neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. These neutral conditions may contribute to good monsoon spells and also are likely to result in favourable conditions of early monsoon onset," said Bhute.
ENSO is an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that is considered one of the most important recurring natural events. It influences the Indian monsoon between June and September.
What Is Monsoon Prediction For Mumbai?
Traditionally, the monsoon reaches Konkan by June 5, Pune by June 10, and Mumbai by June 11. However, this year, the region is expected to receive pre-monsoon showers and early monsoon rains well in advance of these dates.
Widespread rainfall expected in coming days.
Several parts of Maharashtra are already witnessing rainfall activity, and this trend is expected to continue. For instance, in Vidarbha, rain forecast for the next five days; Konkan: rain likely on May 19 and 20; Central Maharashtra and Marathwada: Showers expected on May 20 and 21.
Additionally, Pune, Satara, Solapur, Sangli, and the Ghat sections are likely to experience heavy rainfall with thunder, lightning, and wind speeds of 50–60 kmph over the next three days.
On May 19, Ahilyanagar, Dhule, and Nashik may also receive light to moderate rain, especially in the hilly regions. Rain is expected in Palghar, North Madhya Maharashtra, Jalna, Hingoli, Nanded, and other districts on May 19, 20, and 21.
As per current projections, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to enter Kerala by May 28, which is much before the normal. After this, it generally takes between 8 to 10 days for the Southwest Monsoon to reach and surpass Maharashtra.
First Published:
May 20, 2025, 11:33 IST
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