Latest news with #EmersonCollegePolling
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump appearing remotely at telephone rally for NJ gubernatorial candidate
President Trump will appear remotely at a telephone rally for New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli on Monday, just more than a week before voters chose their nominees in the state's governor's race. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli for the Republican nomination last month, further solidifying his status as the front-runner after polling had shown him with a clear lead over his other competitors. Ciattarelli officially announced Trump's participation in the rally in a Sunday post on the social platform X after The New Jersey Globe reported on it earlier in the day. 'We are going to win this race, Flip NJ Red, and deliver for the people of our state! Be sure to join us TOMORROW night for our tele-rally with PRESIDENT @realDonaldTrump by dialing 855-962-1280 at 7pm!' he said. Ciattarelli was the Republican nominee for governor in 2021, narrowly losing to outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by 3 points, almost pulling off an upset in the Democratic-leaning state. This time, he's trying to pull off a win without an incumbent running for reelection. Ciattarelli previously was more critical of Trump but has gradually shifted to be more openly supportive of him. With Trump's endorsement, a significant lead in polling and fundraising advantages, observers expect Ciattarelli to easily win the Republican nomination for governor again next week. The most recent Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed him ahead with 44 percent, compared to 18 percent for former radio talk show host Bill Spadea and 8 percent for state Sen. Jon Bramnick. The Democratic field is more open, though Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) has taken more of a lead in recent polls over her other top opponents, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Trump appearing remotely at tele-rally for NJ gubernatorial candidate
President Trump will appear remotely at a tele-rally for New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli on Monday, just over a week before voters chose their nominees in the state's governor's race. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli for the Republican nomination last month, further solidifying his status as the front-runner after polling had shown him with a clear lead over his other competitors. Ciattarelli officially announced Trump's participation in the rally in a Sunday post on X after The New Jersey Globe reported on it earlier in the day. 'We are going to win this race, Flip NJ Red, and deliver for the people of our state! Be sure to join us TOMORROW night for our tele-rally with PRESIDENT @realDonaldTrump by dialing 855-962-1280 at 7pm!' he said. Ciattarelli was the Republican nominee for governor in 2021, narrowly losing to outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by 3 points, almost pulling off an upset in the Democratic-leaning state. This time, he's trying to pull off a win without an incumbent running for reelection. Ciattarelli previously was more critical of Trump but has gradually shifted to be more openly supportive of him. With Trump's endorsement, a significant lead in polling and fundraising advantages, observers expect Ciattarelli to easily win the Republican nomination for governor again next week. The most recent Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed him ahead with 44 percent, compared to 18 percent for former radio talk show host Bill Spadea and 8 percent for state Sen. Jon Bramnick. The Democratic field is more open, though Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) has taken more of a lead in recent polls over her other top opponents like Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.
Miami Herald
6 days ago
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo in New York Primary: Polls
As the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary approaches, recent polling has shown Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani trailing behind former Governor Andrew Cuomo, but the latest poll suggests Mamdani may be catching up with his opponent. Newsweek has contacted representatives of Cuomo and Mamdani for comment via email. A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him. With just weeks to go until New York City's Democratic primary on June 24, a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey shows Mamdani gaining ground against Cuomo, though the former governor still maintains a commanding lead. The poll, conducted from May 23 to 26 among 1,000 registered voters, found that 35 percent backed Cuomo on the first round of the ranked-choice ballot, while Mamdani was favored by 23 percent. Despite the gap, Mamdani's recent surge—gaining 23 points and attracting second-choice votes nearly two-to-one—has narrowed Cuomo's ranked-choice lead from 12 to 9 points. After ten rounds of vote simulation, Cuomo would reach the 50 percent threshold with 54 percent, while Mamdani would end with 46 percent. Cuomo's support is strongest among Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (with a 58 percent to 42 percent edge over Mamdani). In contrast, Mamdani has built a solid base among voters under 50, leading with 61 percent, as well as among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent). This split reflects the stark generational and ideological divides shaping the primary. Looking ahead to the November general election, Cuomo maintains a lead in a hypothetical matchup, garnering 44 percent of support. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa attracts 13 percent, while current Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, secures 10 percent, and independent candidate Jim Walden holds 7 percent. Meanwhile, 26 percent of voters remain undecided. If Mamdani were the Democratic nominee, his general election prospects appear weaker, with 35 percent support compared to 16 percent for Sliwa, 15 percent for Adams, and 6 percent for Walden. Other polls have found Cuomo in a strong position. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-May 2025 showed that he was the top choice among likely Democratic voters for the upcoming June primary, with 43 percent support. He held a solid lead over his closest competitor, Mamdani, who had 11 percent. Cuomo's advantage extended across all major demographics and regions, with particularly strong support from moderate Democrats. His lead suggested he could secure the nomination outright in the first round of ranked-choice voting. Meanwhile, Mamdani's backing was concentrated among progressives, but many voters remained unfamiliar with him. According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1 and 8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Mamdani trailed significantly with 18 percent, followed by Adams with 9 percent, Lander with 8 percent, Stringer with 4 percent, and State Senator Zellnor Myrie with 3 percent. The poll showed that Cuomo held a broad and geographically strong lead. He performed best in the Bronx (50 percent), and posted strong showings in Queens and Staten Island (48 percent each). He also led in Manhattan and was tied with Mamdani in Brooklyn. His support was especially strong among older voters and communities of color. Nearly half of voters over 45 backed him, along with 50 percent of Black voters and 41 percent of Latinos. Mamdani, by contrast, led among younger voters and very liberal Democrats. A separate Data for Progress poll conducted in March showed similar results: Cuomo led with 39 percent, Mamdani with 15 percent, Lander with 8 percent, and Eric Adams with 7 percent. Across every poll, Cuomo has had a strong lead among women. In the final round of the Emerson poll, Cuomo led among men by just 2 points but held a commanding 16-point lead among women. The Marist poll similarly showed Cuomo with a 13-point edge among men and a 23-point advantage with women. SurveyUSA's results echoed this trend, with Cuomo ahead by 30 points among men and an even larger 35-point lead among women. These consistent gender gaps suggest that female voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the primary. Last week, Cuomo accused The New York Times of election interference after the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into whether he lied to Congress about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans initially referred Cuomo to the DOJ for prosecution in October, when Democrats were in power. The department did not act on the referral at the time. But according to the Times, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Washington, D.C., initiated the inquiry about a month ago after Republicans renewed their request. Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines. On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign. Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told Newsweek: "He's working hard to earn every vote and we've been humbled by the breadth of support from every corner of this great city." Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: "Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo's ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points. With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani's momentum. "Cuomo's strongest support comes from Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (58 percent to 42 percent). Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61 percent, and holds an edge among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent)." Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down." Voting in the primary is set to begin on June 14. Related Articles Donald Trump's Approval Rating Changes Direction With MenKen Paxton's Chances of Toppling John Cornyn in Texas Senate Race-New PollTrust in Media Growing Under Donald TrumpNearly Half of Americans Say Trump Not Being Transparent About Health 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo in New York Primary: Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. As the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary approaches, recent polling has shown Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani trailing behind former Governor Andrew Cuomo, but the latest poll suggests Mamdani may be catching up with his opponent. Newsweek has contacted representatives of Cuomo and Mamdani for comment via email. Why It Matters A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him. What To Know With just weeks to go until New York City's Democratic primary on June 24, a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey shows Mamdani gaining ground against Cuomo, though the former governor still maintains a commanding lead. The poll, conducted from May 23 to 26 among 1,000 registered voters, found that 35 percent backed Cuomo on the first round of the ranked-choice ballot, while Mamdani was favored by 23 percent. Left, Zohran Mamdani speaks to a crowd in Union Square in New York on April 25, 2025. Right, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo marches in the Israel Day Parade in New York on May... Left, Zohran Mamdani speaks to a crowd in Union Square in New York on April 25, 2025. Right, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo marches in the Israel Day Parade in New York on May 18, 2025. More Yuki Iwamura/AP Despite the gap, Mamdani's recent surge—gaining 23 points and attracting second-choice votes nearly two-to-one—has narrowed Cuomo's ranked-choice lead from 12 to 9 points. After ten rounds of vote simulation, Cuomo would reach the 50 percent threshold with 54 percent, while Mamdani would end with 46 percent. Cuomo's support is strongest among Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (with a 58 percent to 42 percent edge over Mamdani). In contrast, Mamdani has built a solid base among voters under 50, leading with 61 percent, as well as among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent). This split reflects the stark generational and ideological divides shaping the primary. Looking ahead to the November general election, Cuomo maintains a lead in a hypothetical matchup, garnering 44 percent of support. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa attracts 13 percent, while current Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, secures 10 percent, and independent candidate Jim Walden holds 7 percent. Meanwhile, 26 percent of voters remain undecided. If Mamdani were the Democratic nominee, his general election prospects appear weaker, with 35 percent support compared to 16 percent for Sliwa, 15 percent for Adams, and 6 percent for Walden. Other polls have found Cuomo in a strong position. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-May 2025 showed that he was the top choice among likely Democratic voters for the upcoming June primary, with 43 percent support. He held a solid lead over his closest competitor, Mamdani, who had 11 percent. Cuomo's advantage extended across all major demographics and regions, with particularly strong support from moderate Democrats. His lead suggested he could secure the nomination outright in the first round of ranked-choice voting. Meanwhile, Mamdani's backing was concentrated among progressives, but many voters remained unfamiliar with him. According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1 and 8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Mamdani trailed significantly with 18 percent, followed by Adams with 9 percent, Lander with 8 percent, Stringer with 4 percent, and State Senator Zellnor Myrie with 3 percent. The poll showed that Cuomo held a broad and geographically strong lead. He performed best in the Bronx (50 percent), and posted strong showings in Queens and Staten Island (48 percent each). He also led in Manhattan and was tied with Mamdani in Brooklyn. His support was especially strong among older voters and communities of color. Nearly half of voters over 45 backed him, along with 50 percent of Black voters and 41 percent of Latinos. Mamdani, by contrast, led among younger voters and very liberal Democrats. A separate Data for Progress poll conducted in March showed similar results: Cuomo led with 39 percent, Mamdani with 15 percent, Lander with 8 percent, and Eric Adams with 7 percent. Across every poll, Cuomo has had a strong lead among women. In the final round of the Emerson poll, Cuomo led among men by just 2 points but held a commanding 16-point lead among women. The Marist poll similarly showed Cuomo with a 13-point edge among men and a 23-point advantage with women. SurveyUSA's results echoed this trend, with Cuomo ahead by 30 points among men and an even larger 35-point lead among women. These consistent gender gaps suggest that female voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the primary. Last week, Cuomo accused The New York Times of election interference after the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into whether he lied to Congress about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans initially referred Cuomo to the DOJ for prosecution in October, when Democrats were in power. The department did not act on the referral at the time. But according to the Times, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Washington, D.C., initiated the inquiry about a month ago after Republicans renewed their request. Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines. On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign. What People Are Saying Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told Newsweek: "He's working hard to earn every vote and we've been humbled by the breadth of support from every corner of this great city." Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: "Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo's ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points. With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani's momentum. "Cuomo's strongest support comes from Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (58 percent to 42 percent). Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61 percent, and holds an edge among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent)." Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down." What Happens Next Voting in the primary is set to begin on June 14.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's how the Democrats running to be governor say they'll make New Jersey more affordable
The six Democrats hoping to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy have wildly different plans to rein in New Jersey's high cost of living. (Illustration by Alex Cochran for New Jersey Monitor) [Election 2025 Voter Guide: Eleven candidates are running in the June 10 Democratic and GOP gubernatorial primaries.] Affordability is perennially a top issue in New Jersey elections, and the six Democrats hoping to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy all have plans to bring down costs here in the Garden State. The Democrats, who are vying on June 10 for their party's nod for governor in November, have plans to lower costs that range from broad tax code changes that would place more of the burden on wealthy residents to expanded tax credits for families and low-income individuals to significant tax cuts for property owners. New Jersey's cost of living and tax burdens could well decide the race for the state's next governor. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of New Jersey voters from earlier this month found 45% of respondents said the economy (including taxes) is the No. 1 issue facing New Jersey, followed by housing affordability at 12%. It remains to be seen how voters will judge Democrats' affordability promises after eight years under a Democratic governor. Neither party has won three successive terms as New Jersey's governor since 1961. 'If you're unhappy with the way things are going, you vote for a change. If you're happy with the way things are going, you vote for whoever's in charge,' said Dan Cassino, the director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. 'So it's entirely plausible that voters are going to go to that voting booth and say, 'Well, New Jersey's unaffordable. We need a change. Let's vote for a Republican.'' Tax reform features heavily in Newark Mayor Ras Baraka's affordability plan. The progressive Democrat has proposed taxing the first $90,000 of income residents earn at 1.4%, the rate currently charged on the first $20,000 earned in a year, and reducing rates for those making less than $500,000. Under Baraka's plan, marginal rates would fall to 6.37% for those making at least $152,000, to 7.5% for those making at least $350,000, 9% for those with incomes of at least $500,000, and 10% for residents who earn at least $750,000. Those who make at least $1 million would pay more under Baraka's plan, and the state's top earners would pay the highest state income tax rates in the nation. Marginal rates for individuals making more than $1 million annually would range from 11% to 14% under Baraka's plan, with the highest bracket kicking in after $10 million in annual earnings. California's top state income tax bracket, the highest in the nation, taxes earnings above $1 million at 13.3%. Baraka says these changes would boost annual collections by about $2 billion. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop also favors higher taxes for high earners. Fulop would create new tax brackets for those earning $2 million, $5 million, and $10 million per year. Fulop's affordability plan does not state the levels of the new brackets, but a New Jersey Policy Perspective report cited by his plan recommends they be set to 12%, 13%, and 14%, respectively. The think tank's report, published in November, says the changes would generate $1.2 billion annually. Fulop says he would like to raise the state's earned income tax credit — which offsets tax burdens for very low-income residents with credits worth between $253 and $3,132 in 2024 — to 50% of the federal benefit, from 40%. He's also proposed changes to Stay NJ, a new state program that aims to halve senior citizens' property taxes. Fulop would reduce the income limit for Stay NJ participants from $500,000 to $150,000 and make the program's credits flat and phased-in rather than based on a resident's property tax bill. Tax cuts lie at the center of Rep. Josh Gottheimer's affordability agenda. The five-term congressman's cost-lowering plan centers around a promise to reduce state and local taxes by a combined $5.9 billion through a raft of cuts, credits, and rebates. The state's average property tax bill in 2024 was $10,095 Gottheimer proposes requiring local governments to cut property taxes to receive an equal amount of state income tax revenue, echoing a Republican school-funding proposal from years past. Gottheimer's version proposes to move roughly $4.7 billion in annual costs from local ledgers to the state budget. Because property taxes are set locally, municipalities would have to act to lower them, and matching state funds would only be offered to those that undertake efficiency reviews that Gottheimer says would pay for his tax cuts. He says those reviews would cut 5% of state and local spending — $2.9 billion at the state level and $2.4 billion locally — by merging departments, unifying procurement offices, and even removing light bulbs from vending machines. Local governments billed a little less than $35.7 billion in property taxes last year, according to state records, meaning that across-the-board 5% cuts would have produced close to $700 million less than the $2.9 billion advertised by Gottheimer's plan. The congressman's property and income tax credits for renters, those with dependents, retirees, and businesses would reduce state revenue by $1.2 billion each year. Rep. Mikie Sherrill has eschewed proposing broad changes to the tax code, though she favors increasing award amounts for the state's child tax credit — a per-child refundable tax credit worth between $1,000 and $200, depending on income — and its earned income tax credit. She would also create a caregiver assistance tax credit for residents caring for elderly family members. Sherrill has not proposed specific levels for any of the tax credits. The congresswoman also proposes the return of a sales tax holiday for back-to-school items. The state implemented that in 2023 but halted it last year as the state's budgeting began to tighten. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller's policy platform places little focus on affordability, at least in the realm of taxes. He says he would seek to expand the child and dependent care tax credits, which offset a portion of taxpayers' child care expenses, and boost other assistance for child care. The state's child and dependent care tax credit is set as a percentage of the federal benefit — $3,000 for a single filer or $6,000 for joint filers. At present, New Jersey's child and dependent care tax credit offers between 50% and 10% of the federal benefit, with those earning less than $30,000 receiving the largest credits and those making between $120,000 and $150,000 the smallest. Former state Sen. Steve Sweeney's affordability plan focuses on seniors. He has proposed a massive expansion of state income tax exclusions for retirees that would entirely eliminate all income tax for residents 65 and older with a household income of no more than $250,000. At present, residents 62 and over who make no more than $100,000 can exclude from their income taxes large portions of their pension income — $100,000 for joint filers, $75,000 for single filers, and $50,000 for married individuals filing separate returns. Those with incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 can exclude a percentage of their pension income from their taxes. A separate process calculates exclusions for other types of retirement income, and New Jersey does not tax social security benefits. It's not clear how much Sweeney's exclusion proposal would cost the state in foregone revenue. Sweeney also proposes lowering income limits for Stay NJ from $500,000 to $250,000. That program, due to issue its first half-year benefit in the fiscal year that begins July 1, is expected to cost at least $1.2 billion annually under current law. It's not clear how much money the state would save by halving the program's income limit. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
