Latest news with #EnergyTransitionInstitute
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Net zero jobs plans are fundamentally flawed, Miliband warned
Ed Miliband has been urged to slash taxes on the North Sea to prevent the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. Researchers at Robert Gordon University (RGU) said oil and gas jobs were disappearing faster than new clean energy roles were being created as a result of the slower-than-expected deployment of wind farms. It threatens the loss of tens of thousands of skilled British jobs by the end of the decade. The RGU report warned that the offshore wind sector may only generate 29,000 jobs by 2030, while some 58,000 disappear from oil and gas – the equivalent of 200 jobs lost every week for the next five years. Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU's Energy Transition Institute, said: 'You have to wait pretty well to the back end of this decade before there's enough capacity in the renewables sector to take all the people coming out of oil and gas. 'So there is a very valid, very real concern in oil and gas, in the world-class supply chain and the absolutely fantastic workforce, and they're saying 'actually, we're quite happy to work on the renewable agenda, but the jobs are simply not there'. 'It's a timing issue.' To avoid heavy job losses, RGU said Mr Miliband, the Energy Secretary, needed to either attract a larger share of turbine manufacturing to the UK or reverse his ban on new North Sea drilling licences to temporarily boost oil and gas production. Mr Miliband has promised a 'just transition' in the North Sea, saying offshore wind jobs will replace those lost on oil and gas rigs. He is targeting between 43 and 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity by 2030 as part of his clean power plans. The Government argues this will not only deliver energy security but also provide lasting employment for North Sea workers. However, based on the industry's current trajectory, new jobs will not be created fast enough to match the decline in oil and gas. In a worst-case scenario, researchers said the overall number of people working in offshore energy could fall by one fifth to 125,000. It comes after energy consultancy BloombergNEF warned the Government was on course to miss its offshore wind deployment target by 10GW. RGU said Mr Miliband could miss his wind power targets and still avoid job losses, but only if he attracted a larger share of turbine manufacturing to the UK or reopened the North Sea. Prof De Leeuw said: 'Getting to the Government's target for offshore wind capacity would be an absolutely heroic achievement, especially in just the next five years. 'So if you might not get there, you want to keep your options open. We think you need to keep oil and gas going for just a bit longer, to buy more time for the cavalry to arrive in the form of renewable energy jobs.' The RGU report predicted demand for between 125,000 and 212,000 offshore energy workers – including both those in oil and gas and those in renewables – by 2030. This depends on various factors, including the amount of offshore wind capacity that is built, the share of turbine manufacturing that is done domestically, and the level of oil and gas production. In nearly every scenario where Mr Miliband hits his upper target for offshore wind generation, or 50GW of capacity, the number of North Sea jobs either increases or stays more or less the same. But in most scenarios where only 40GW or 30GW are delivered, large numbers of jobs are lost. BloombergNEF recently warned that Mr Miliband was on course to deliver just 33GW by 2030, with Ørsted's decision to cancel the massive Hornsea 4 project also viewed as a sign of industry turbulence. Significant job losses are less likely if more money is spent on building wind farm equipment in Britain, RGU said. However, this may be beyond the Government's control. Another way to ensure jobs are not lost in almost every scenario is to ensure oil and gas production stays at 700,000 barrels per day or more, compared to a current forecast of between 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day. This would only be possible if controversial developments such as the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields went ahead, as well as other schemes. Prof De Leeuw suggested ministers could try to grow domestic turbine manufacturing by making supporting investments in factories, perhaps through the National Wealth Fund and state-owned Great British Energy. But he warned the Government 'doesn't have all the levers' to ensure that happens, whereas the windfall tax on oil and gas producers and the ban on new licences were within its control. While stressing the North Sea was still in 'managed decline', he added: 'It is very hard for the Government to make the renewables agenda go faster. 'But what they do have is all the levers on how to manage the decline in oil and gas, and particularly around what they do with the tax regime and the fiscal levers.' Asked whether Mr Miliband should reverse the ban on new drilling licences, a key pledge in Labour's election manifesto, he replied: 'You have to get investor confidence to the highest point. 'What was in the [Labour] manifesto ... the world has moved on, but the policy has not. I do think there is room for selective licensing to keep activity going.' The Government has been consulting on its plans for the North Sea, which include boosting employment through a variety of new sectors such as carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production and offshore wind. It has also set up the Office for Clean Energy Jobs to ensure new roles are 'high-quality and paid fairly', and launched the so-called clean industry bonus to attract factory investments to coastal communities. On Friday, a spokesman for Mr Miliband's department said: 'We have taken rapid steps to deliver the next generation of good jobs for North Sea workers in a fair and orderly transition as part of our plan for change, including by making the biggest investment in offshore wind and two first-of-a-kind carbon capture storage clusters. 'This comes alongside Great British Energy, headquartered in Aberdeen, which has already announced a £300m investment into British supply chains, unlocking significant investment and helping to create thousands of skilled jobs.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
5 days ago
- Business
- Telegraph
Net zero jobs plans are fundamentally flawed, Miliband warned
Ed Miliband has been urged to slash taxes on the North Sea to prevent the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. Researchers at Robert Gordon University (RGU) said oil and gas jobs were disappearing faster than new clean energy roles were being created as a result of the slower-than-expected deployment of wind farms. It threatens the loss of tens of thousands of skilled British jobs by the end of the decade. The RGU report warned that the offshore wind sector may only generate 29,000 jobs by 2030, while some 58,000 disappear from oil and gas – the equivalent of 200 jobs lost every week for the next five years. Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU's Energy Transition Institute, said: 'You have to wait pretty well to the back end of this decade before there's enough capacity in the renewables sector to take all the people coming out of oil and gas. 'So there is a very valid, very real concern in oil and gas, in the world-class supply chain and the absolutely fantastic workforce, and they're saying 'actually, we're quite happy to work on the renewable agenda, but the jobs are simply not there'. 'It's a timing issue.' To avoid heavy job losses, RGU said Mr Miliband, the Energy Secretary, needed to either attract a larger share of turbine manufacturing to the UK or reverse his ban on new North Sea drilling licences to temporarily boost oil and gas production. Buying time Mr Miliband has promised a 'just transition' in the North Sea, saying offshore wind jobs will replace those lost on oil and gas rigs. He is targeting between 43 and 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity by 2030 as part of his clean power plans. The Government argues this will not only deliver energy security but also provide lasting employment for North Sea workers. However, based on the industry's current trajectory, new jobs will not be created fast enough to match the decline in oil and gas. In a worst-case scenario, researchers said the overall number of people working in offshore energy could fall by one fifth to 125,000. It comes after energy consultancy BloombergNEF warned the Government was on course to miss its offshore wind deployment target by 10GW. RGU said Mr Miliband could miss his wind power targets and still avoid job losses, but only if he attracted a larger share of turbine manufacturing to the UK or reopened the North Sea. Prof De Leeuw said: 'Getting to the Government's target for offshore wind capacity would be an absolutely heroic achievement, especially in just the next five years. 'So if you might not get there, you want to keep your options open. We think you need to keep oil and gas going for just a bit longer, to buy more time for the cavalry to arrive in the form of renewable energy jobs.' The RGU report predicted demand for between 125,000 and 212,000 offshore energy workers – including both those in oil and gas and those in renewables – by 2030. This depends on various factors, including the amount of offshore wind capacity that is built, the share of turbine manufacturing that is done domestically, and the level of oil and gas production. In nearly every scenario where Mr Miliband hits his upper target for offshore wind generation, or 50GW of capacity, the number of North Sea jobs either increases or stays more or less the same. But in most scenarios where only 40GW or 30GW are delivered, large numbers of jobs are lost. Government levers BloombergNEF recently warned that Mr Miliband was on course to deliver just 33GW by 2030, with Ørsted's decision to cancel the massive Hornsea 4 project also viewed as a sign of industry turbulence. Significant job losses are less likely if more money is spent on building wind farm equipment in Britain, RGU said. However, this may be beyond the Government's control. Another way to ensure jobs are not lost in almost every scenario is to ensure oil and gas production stays at 700,000 barrels per day or more, compared to a current forecast of between 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day. This would only be possible if controversial developments such as the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields went ahead, as well as other schemes. Prof De Leeuw suggested ministers could try to grow domestic turbine manufacturing by making supporting investments in factories, perhaps through the National Wealth Fund and state-owned Great British Energy. But he warned the Government 'doesn't have all the levers' to ensure that happens, whereas the windfall tax on oil and gas producers and the ban on new licences were within its control. While stressing the North Sea was still in 'managed decline', he added: 'It is very hard for the Government to make the renewables agenda go faster. 'But what they do have is all the levers on how to manage the decline in oil and gas, and particularly around what they do with the tax regime and the fiscal levers.' Asked whether Mr Miliband should reverse the ban on new drilling licences, a key pledge in Labour's election manifesto, he replied: 'You have to get investor confidence to the highest point. 'What was in the [Labour] manifesto ... the world has moved on, but the policy has not. I do think there is room for selective licensing to keep activity going.' The Government has been consulting on its plans for the North Sea, which include boosting employment through a variety of new sectors such as carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production and offshore wind. It has also set up the Office for Clean Energy Jobs to ensure new roles are 'high-quality and paid fairly', and launched the so-called clean industry bonus to attract factory investments to coastal communities. On Friday, a spokesman for Mr Miliband's department said: 'We have taken rapid steps to deliver the next generation of good jobs for North Sea workers in a fair and orderly transition as part of our plan for change, including by making the biggest investment in offshore wind and two first-of-a-kind carbon capture storage clusters. 'This comes alongside Great British Energy, headquartered in Aberdeen, which has already announced a £300m investment into British supply chains, unlocking significant investment and helping to create thousands of skilled jobs.'
Press and Journal
5 days ago
- Business
- Press and Journal
Warning 400 North Sea jobs could go every two weeks in the next five years
Up to 400 North Sea oil and gas jobs could vanish every two weeks over the next five years. That's the stark warning from a new Robert Gordon University report, which has compared it to losing the entire Grangemouth refinery workforce over and over again. It says the UK is teetering in a fragile 'goldilocks zone'- a narrow window where action now could protect and even grow energy jobs. But the window is closing fast. The study, Striking the Balance, urges the government to act now to prevent a steep decline in skilled roles. With the right investment, policies and delivery, UK offshore energy jobs could grow to 210,000 by 2023. However, without that, job numbers could fall to 125,000 – with Scotland expected to lose up to around 30,000 roles. Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU's Energy Transition Institute, said action is urgently needed. 'The analysis shows that there is a workforce 'goldilocks zone' between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised,' he said. 'Key to the effective delivery of the goldilocks zone is rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.' Prof de Leeuw said we need to 'follow the money' and pointed to 'massive investor uncertainty' in the negative sentiment for oil and gas in the UK and a slowdown in the wind industry. 'Where's the activity?' he asked. 'That Goldilocks zone is getting more urgent. 'There's just nowhere for the supply chain jobs to go other than overseas.' He said government intervention was needed to get confidence back in the industry. 'The UK's lack of joined up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing,' he said. 'Countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are already successfully balancing traditional energy production with rapid expansion of renewables, a model the UK could and should emulate. 'Analysis highlights the governments can rapidly put in place policies to better manage the decline in the oil and gas sector, so that offshore energy jobs and the UK's world-class supply chain can be sustained and retained.' Prof de Leeuw said the stakes were particularly high for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, where one in four jobs are linked to offshore energy – through direct employment or the wider supply chain. 'With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders,' he said. 'The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. 'Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20% to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.'
The Herald Scotland
20-05-2025
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Energy transition clashes with full-blown employment rights revolution
The UK's offshore energy industry has played a fundamental part in powering the nation for over five decades. Robert Gordon University's Energy Transition Institute (ETI) estimates that 154,000 UK jobs are supported by the offshore energy sector, with 120,000 of those in the oil and gas industry. As the country races to meet its net zero commitments, the offshore energy sector is in a position of unprecedented change and uncertainty. The ETI estimates that even a well-managed transition to renewable energy will see oil and gas workforce numbers decline to around 87,000 by 2030. As jobs in oil and gas decrease, the National Grid estimates that, in turn, 400,000 roles will need to be filled to build the workforce required to sustain net zero targets – 260,000 of which will be newly created for the purposes of the transition. The ETI also suggests that 90% of the existing offshore workforce has transferable skills applicable to clean energy roles. This gives cause for optimism. However, employers within the offshore energy sector face some challenges. The energy profits levy (the so called 'windfall tax'), which applies a 78% headline rate of tax to oil and gas companies, is causing many internationally mobile companies to divert their investment overseas. A further challenge is ensuring that the clean energy jobs of the future are available at the same time as traditional roles decline. That can only be achieved through significant public and private sector investment, combined with a fast and efficient planning regime. Terms and conditions will also be crucial: oil and gas jobs are traditionally very well paid. Clean energy jobs will need to offer an attractive combination of pay, benefits and working arrangements, otherwise talent will be lost overseas. To underpin all of this, an employment rights regime that is stable and incentivises employers to invest in training and skills development is essential. The crucial question is does the government's Employment Rights Bill (ERB) achieve this? The ERB proposes to significantly enhance rights and protections for employees. Key features of the bill include: day one unfair dismissal rights; greater trade union access; the end of fire and rehire; and offers of guaranteed hours to zero hours workers. From the point of view of the worker, these appear a cause for celebration. But there may be unintended consequences. The new rights may cause employers to take a more conservative approach to recruitment. At a time when recruitment and training to fulfil the needs of the energy transition is critical, this may be less than helpful for those in the offshore industry. With potentially increased union membership across the workforce, employers will need to recognise that if salaries are not consistent with those historically offered in the oil and gas industry, disagreements over pay packages may cause significant disruption. These changes may simply make it harder for employers in the sector to adjust to the needs of the energy transition. The government has identified the autumn of 2026 for the implementation of the majority of rights under the ERB. With this in mind, employers in the offshore industry may feel it is beneficial to accelerate investment and workforce planning decisions related to the energy transition. Time will tell if the government's plans for energy transition and an employment rights revolution can sit in harmony with one another.
