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Axios
2 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: Trump redistricting push could backfire with swing voters
The reaction of Georgia swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups shows how President Trump's sudden push for redistricting could backfire on the GOP in the midterms — if Democrats can hold voters' attention. The big picture: Just four of the 11 Biden-to-Trump swing voters in Tuesday night's sessions said they could explain why more than 50 Democratic Texas legislators have left that state. But when provided with neutral facts describing the situation, none of the 11 said they support the GOP redistricting effort. All 11 oppose an effort from the state attorney general to remove some of the Democrats from office. 10 of the 11 said Texas Democrats did the right thing by leaving the state. "Once Georgia swing voters understand what Texas Republicans are attempting, they reject it," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. "That said, Democrats have done a lousy job of educating swing voters about mid-decade redistricting." Zoom in: Of the 11 focus group participants, all of whom backed President Trump in November, just three now say they approve of the administration's overall actions. All 11 said they're more anxious about the economy now than when Trump took office. Seven said they disapprove of the tariffs. How it works: Axios observed two online focus groups Tuesday night that included 11 Georgia residents who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. Five are Democrats, four are independents and two are Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: " The cost of living is ridiculous and it's not slowing down; it shows no signs of getting better," said Todd L., 42, of Atlanta. "It seems like every other day there's a new tariff or he's pissed off some other country, and just every single day there's more news about inflation and job losses," said Gavin E., 52, of Decatur. "It just keeps getting worse and worse. We're hemorrhaging. It's crazy." When it comes to the Texas redistricting dispute, Kevin J., 57, of Woodstock, said: "Doing this now and redrawing their districts, that's just they want to please Donald Trump." Said Chris Z., 36, of Norcross: "He wants it now. He wants it his way. There's a proper way to do things and he doesn't follow. ... There's no balance of power. That's just not how things operate, and it'll be a domino effect with other states doing the same thing." "Once it's done every five years, then some state will push it to two years and some state will push it to a year," said Sherrecia J., 34, of Atlanta. "It's going to become more and more ridiculous. It has to have a boundary." "What's the purpose of having laws and constitutions and protocols if they're not going to be followed?" said Olanrewaju A., 44, of Decatur. Meanwhile, Thau also spent a portion of the sessions asking these swing voters how they are using and thinking about AI. The panels followed the launch of OpenAI's GPT-5. Some communities, including in Georgia, are raising concerns about the growth of data centers and their potential strains on the power grid and the environment. 10 of the 11 said they've used some form of AI; five use ChatGPT at least weekly; eight consider themselves supporters of AI. Nine worried AI will weaken privacy protections, especially related to financial data; nine also feared AI will be used to undermine America's political system; and eight said they fear AI will figure out how to launch weapons on its own, without human commands.
Axios
25-07-2025
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: Nevada swing voters turning on Trump
A majority of Nevada swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups who backed President Trump in November said they now disapprove of his administration's actions. Why it matters: These swing voters' assessment of the administration were the most negative of any of our monthly panels this year besides March, when Michigan voters recoiled against Trump's tariff threats and antagonism toward neighbor Canada. The big picture: Concerns about inflation, the "big, beautiful bill" and the late sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein's associates drove the change of heart for the Nevada voters. The Nevadans' comments amplify downward trends for Trump that are emerging in several national polls. Seven of the 12 participants said they disapprove of the administration's overall actions since January, while two said they are neutral and three said they are supportive. Asked which is more important to them — inflation or Epstein — 10 of the 12 participants said inflation. What they're saying:"I disapprove because I was hoping that the basic cost of living would go down, gas prices, grocery prices, and for the most part I haven't seen any change," said Nicole M., 47. Tammy S., 52, said Trump made promises that he "just didn't deliver on." "While Democrats continue to pummel the president over the Epstein case, they're ignoring Nevada swing voters' immediate concern: the stubbornly high cost of living," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. Panelists also expressed broadly negative views about the Democratic Party, hinting at challenges for Democrats trying to flip control of Congress in the midterms. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night with 12 Nevadans, all from Clark County, who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Ten are independents and two are Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. The details: All 12 respondents knew Trump had signed into law something called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," but most were confused over the details. When it came to the Medicaid provisions in the new law, ten of 12 said they liked the tighter work requirements — but because of provisions that could cause millions of people to lose health coverage, nine of the 12 said they oppose the Medicaid provisions. Similarly, there was confusion around the legislation's No Tax on Tips aspect — a salient issue in Las Vegas' economy. Once they read details, all 12 said "no taxes on tips" would be an inaccurate description. Five of the 12 concluded that they liked the law, while four were neutral and three dislike it. All 12 respondents knew who Epstein was. Eight said they believe there's a cover-up around his clients and associates and that they want full transparency, and most of those were suspicious about Trump being engaged in a cover-up to protect his own reputation. Said Mary M., 44: "It just feels like typical Trump deflection, right? Give me a straight answer about Jeff Epstein and let's move forward, right?" "I believe they're all guilty, but who is being protected?" said Cymbra V., 61. "I think it's very, very problematic that Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted of trafficking, but we have no idea who she trafficked to. And Trump said he was going to be transparent."
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Focus groups: Latino Trump voters diverge on deportations but largely still back the president
Some divides are emerging among swing-state Latinos who voted for President Donald Trump when it comes to his approach to mass deportations, according to new focus group conversations with some of these voters, who nevertheless remain broadly supportive of the president. Most of the Latino Trump voters who participated in recent focus groups observed by NBC News as part of the 2025 Deciders series, produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago, said they approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration. And most approved of his actions broadly as president. These voters were key to Trump's win in 2024, when he improved significantly among Latino voters compared to his previous campaigns. The president lost Latinos by 5 points last year, after losing the group by 33 points in 2020, according to the NBC News exit poll. Other estimates of the 2024 vote have indicated the broad shift, too, though some have not shown quite as much movement. The people in these focus groups said they voted for Trump because of concerns about the economy, including inflation, and about immigration. And most of them were still behind the president (all but four also voted for Trump in 2020). 'He's keeping his promises and he's doing what he said he was going to do,' David L., a 60 year-old Georgia voter who grew up in Mexico, said of Trump. But there were cracks, albeit small ones, in support for some of Trump's specific policies. Two voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and flipped to Trump in 2024 said they would not vote for Trump if given the chance to redo their vote, choosing instead to back a third-party candidate. One of those voters, Ruby L., 59, of Georgia, said she disapproved of Trump's presidency so far because of potential cuts to programs like Medicaid and because of his approach to deporting undocumented immigrants. 'He was going to deport people that were criminals and have backgrounds,' said Ruby, who was born in Colombia. 'But I see that he's deporting people that work hard and have been in this country. I think he should find a way to help them stay and get a citizenship or something.' Ruby's concerns about widespread deportations underscored some divisions among these voters, even as they broadly supported Trump's actions on immigration. Three of the Trump voters disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration broadly, while 10 approved. That may not reflect Latino Trump voters' broad views, because, unlike a poll, which uses statistical methods to demonstrate how a larger population feels, focus groups dig deeper into how individual panelists view key questions facing the country. 'Most of these swing-state, Hispanic American Trump voters firmly endorse the president's focus on illegal immigration, though they want more thoughtful prioritization regarding who gets deported sooner versus later,' said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions. Several voters supported deportations of undocumented immigrants regardless of whether they have committed crimes. 'Well, what do you expect? If you came here illegally, you've done something illegal. Expect the consequences,' said Justin O., 38, of Nevada, who was born in the United States and is of Mexican descent. 'If we're not going to enforce laws, why bother even having them?' said Zachary N., 40, of Michigan, who is also of Mexican descent. Maria P., a 40-year-old Nevada voter of Puerto Rican descent, said Trump's focus on deportations is no different from that of previous presidents, including Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. 'They all did it, but now it's just the first time everyone's discussing it,' Maria said. Connie A., a 59-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent, questioned why an undocumented immigrant who has been in the country for decades had not attempted to apply for a green card or for citizenship. 'There's not a direct path,' countered Mariana L., a 27-year-old North Carolina resident who was born in Venezuela and was one of several participants who noted the path to becoming a legal resident, even for those who want to, can be difficult. Mariana was among the voters who did not approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration, pointing to his move to revoke certain legal protections for immigrants from her home country. 'Changing those statuses is kind of unfair for the people that built their lives here,' she said. Mariana and some other voters also said the administration should prioritize deporting undocumented immigrants who committed crimes. 'I guess they're focusing on both those who have committed crimes and those who haven't,' said Jennifer L., a 44-year-old Michigan voter of Mexican descent. She approved of Trump's overall performance as president but disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration. 'There's some that are going back because they should, but then there are also some immigrants that are going that really, maybe they haven't committed a crime,' she later added. 'He said he was going to focus on the criminals and stuff like that. And then there's people that are not criminals that are also going,' said Oscar B., a 52-year-old Pennsylvania voter, adding that the Trump administration should take a more 'tailored approach.' Oscar, who was born in Venezuela, also noted that he has seen posts on a local Facebook page for Latinos in his area that warn about Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. 'People on there, they make posts where they talk about ICE being in the city and not to go out of your house,' Oscar said. Ruby of Georgia also said she has seen 'a lot of fear' in her community. 'They're afraid to go out and [they say], 'Don't go out if you're a citizen, don't go out without your citizenship certificate or whatever because you never know,'' Ruby said. 'So they're creating that source of fear around the area. Other voters, like Maria from Nevada, appeared to wrestle with different approaches to deporting undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for years "giving back to society," she said. 'It is the law,' she later added, 'but sometimes the law makes it nearly impossible for a lot of them to actually become citizens at the end of the day. And that's what we have to realize, also. So that's why I'm torn.' 'We see in their responses how conflicted some of these voters are when it comes deporting longtime undocumented residents who have become de facto Americans, have families, pay taxes, live peacefully and contribute to society," said Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, which leads the focus group project in partnership with Engagious/Sago. "Yet overwhelmingly they're still supporting President Trump, showing the resilience of their loyalty and just how motivated they are in opposing illegal immigration,' Talev said. While there were some divisions over the Trump administration's deportations, the Trump voters who participated in the focus groups broadly backed Trump's response to protests against ICE raids in Los Angeles. Ten of the 13 participants approved of the president's decision to deploy California National Guard troops and hundreds of Marines, with several voters describing the protests as violent and destructive. 'Normally it might be kind of out of the ordinary, being that it was so early into the demonstrations. But I think given the [Black Lives Matter] riots and everything our country went through a few years ago, and it being in California where [Gov. Gavin] Newsom will pretty much not put his foot down at all, I think that he had to get ahead of it, otherwise we would be seeing even more of it,' said Rozlyn C., a 44-year-old Georgia voter of Cuban descent. 'These idiots are trying to tear down their city,' said Irma C., a 58-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent. The few who disapproved of Trump's actions described them as 'too much too soon' or out of bounds. 'There is a chain of command that has to be followed. A governor needs to request — we can't just go in there, the state needs to request. Now, he's just completely gone against that,' Justin of Nevada said, referring to Trump. 'The U.S. military should never be used against its own citizens ever. Period. Ever,' Justin later added. Several of these voters said they supported Trump because they believed he could best address the economy and high prices, and for the most part they like what they've seen of Trump so far on those issues. Eight voters said they feel less anxious about the economy compared to when Trump took office in January. Just two said they were more anxious. 'The reduced anxiety eight of them feel about the economy after just five months reflects not only their experiences as consumers, but also their faith in President Trump as businessman-turned-leader,' said Thau, the focus group moderator. 'As a small-business owner, my costs went up under Biden,' said William A., a 60 year-old Georgia voter of Puerto Rican descent, suggesting Biden's policies raised the price of oil, which impacted 'everything else.' In his view, Trump's policies are 'raising our fuel production and lowering fuel costs.' Mariana, the North Carolina voter who was born in Venezuela, said she backed Trump and the Republican Party because of her concerns about the economy. She said she's seen local grocery prices go down since Trump took office. 'I think that the inflation, economy's what they know and Trump being a businessman is just what he does and has been doing for a living,' she said. But Jennifer, the Michigan voter, said high prices on goods such as eggs, dairy, meat and produce have persisted, and she did not believe that Trump was making addressing inflation a priority. 'I thought it would be a top priority instead of renaming the Gulf of Mexico the 'Gulf of America' instead,' Jennifer said. 'But hopefully it does happen. But definitely, in Michigan here it has not — prices here have gone up and have stayed up. A majority of voters also said they supported Trump's actions on trade and tariffs, with the rest saying they do not know enough about the issue to weigh in. Georgia's Rozlyn C. said she disagreed with the president's decision to impose tariffs on some countries with which the U.S. did not have a trade deficit. But she is still broadly supportive of the president. 'I think he has a grand master plan that most of us probably don't understand,' Rozlyn said. 'But I have faith that he, a hundred percent, has the best interest of our country at heart.' This article was originally published on
NBC News
19-06-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
Focus groups: Latino Trump voters diverge on deportations but largely still back the president
Some divides are emerging among swing-state Latinos who voted for President Donald Trump when it comes to his approach to mass deportations, according to new focus group conversations with some of these voters, who nevertheless remain broadly supportive of the president. Most of the Latino Trump voters who participated in recent focus groups observed by NBC News as part of the 2025 Deciders series, produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago, said they approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration. And most approved of his actions broadly as president. These voters were key to Trump's win in 2024, when he improved significantly among Latino voters compared to his previous campaigns. The president lost Latinos by 5 points last year, after losing the group by 33 points in 2020, according to the NBC News exit poll. Other estimates of the 2024 vote have indicated the broad shift, too, though some have not shown quite as much movement. The people in these focus groups said they voted for Trump because of concerns about the economy, including inflation, and about immigration. And most of them were still behind the president (all but four also voted for Trump in 2020). 'He's keeping his promises and he's doing what he said he was going to do,' David L., a 60 year-old Georgia voter who grew up in Mexico, said of Trump. But there were cracks, albeit small ones, in support for some of Trump's specific policies. Two voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and flipped to Trump in 2024 said they would not vote for Trump if given the chance to redo their vote, choosing instead to back a third-party candidate. One of those voters, Ruby L., 59, of Georgia, said she disapproved of Trump's presidency so far because of potential cuts to programs like Medicaid and because of his approach to deporting undocumented immigrants. 'He was going to deport people that were criminals and have backgrounds,' said Ruby, who was born in Colombia. 'But I see that he's deporting people that work hard and have been in this country. I think he should find a way to help them stay and get a citizenship or something.' Deportation divides Ruby's concerns about widespread deportations underscored some divisions among these voters, even as they broadly supported Trump's actions on immigration. Three of the Trump voters disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration broadly, while 10 approved. That may not reflect Latino Trump voters' broad views, because, unlike a poll, which uses statistical methods to demonstrate how a larger population feels, focus groups dig deeper into how individual panelists view key questions facing the country. 'Most of these swing-state, Hispanic American Trump voters firmly endorse the president's focus on illegal immigration, though they want more thoughtful prioritization regarding who gets deported sooner versus later,' said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions. Several voters supported deportations of undocumented immigrants regardless of whether they have committed crimes. 'Well, what do you expect? If you came here illegally, you've done something illegal. Expect the consequences,' said Justin O., 38, of Nevada, who was born in the United States and is of Mexican descent. 'If we're not going to enforce laws, why bother even having them?' said Zachary N., 40, of Michigan, who is also of Mexican descent. Maria P., a 40-year-old Nevada voter of Puerto Rican descent, said Trump's focus on deportations is no different from that of previous presidents, including Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. 'They all did it, but now it's just the first time everyone's discussing it,' Maria said. Connie A., a 59-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent, questioned why an undocumented immigrant who has been in the country for decades had not attempted to apply for a green card or for citizenship. 'There's not a direct path,' countered Mariana L., a 27-year-old North Carolina resident who was born in Venezuela and was one of several participants who noted the path to becoming a legal resident, even for those who want to, can be difficult. Mariana was among the voters who did not approve of Trump's handling of illegal immigration, pointing to his move to revoke certain legal protections for immigrants from her home country. 'Changing those statuses is kind of unfair for the people that built their lives here,' she said. Mariana and some other voters also said the administration should prioritize deporting undocumented immigrants who committed crimes. 'I guess they're focusing on both those who have committed crimes and those who haven't,' said Jennifer L., a 44-year-old Michigan voter of Mexican descent. She approved of Trump's overall performance as president but disapproved of his handling of illegal immigration. 'There's some that are going back because they should, but then there are also some immigrants that are going that really, maybe they haven't committed a crime,' she later added. 'He said he was going to focus on the criminals and stuff like that. And then there's people that are not criminals that are also going,' said Oscar B., a 52-year-old Pennsylvania voter, adding that the Trump administration should take a more 'tailored approach.' Oscar, who was born in Venezuela, also noted that he has seen posts on a local Facebook page for Latinos in his area that warn about Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. 'People on there, they make posts where they talk about ICE being in the city and not to go out of your house,' Oscar said. Ruby of Georgia also said she has seen 'a lot of fear' in her community. 'They're afraid to go out and [they say], 'Don't go out if you're a citizen, don't go out without your citizenship certificate or whatever because you never know,'' Ruby said. 'So they're creating that source of fear around the area. Other voters, like Maria from Nevada, appeared to wrestle with different approaches to deporting undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for years "giving back to society," she said. 'It is the law,' she later added, 'but sometimes the law makes it nearly impossible for a lot of them to actually become citizens at the end of the day. And that's what we have to realize, also. So that's why I'm torn.' 'We see in their responses how conflicted some of these voters are when it comes deporting longtime undocumented residents who have become de facto Americans, have families, pay taxes, live peacefully and contribute to society," said Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, which leads the focus group project in partnership with Engagious/Sago. "Yet overwhelmingly they're still supporting President Trump, showing the resilience of their loyalty and just how motivated they are in opposing illegal immigration,' Talev said. Los Angeles response While there were some divisions over the Trump administration's deportations, the Trump voters who participated in the focus groups broadly backed Trump's response to protests against ICE raids in Los Angeles. Ten of the 13 participants approved of the president's decision to deploy California National Guard troops and hundreds of Marines, with several voters describing the protests as violent and destructive. 'Normally it might be kind of out of the ordinary, being that it was so early into the demonstrations. But I think given the [Black Lives Matter] riots and everything our country went through a few years ago, and it being in California where [Gov. Gavin] Newsom will pretty much not put his foot down at all, I think that he had to get ahead of it, otherwise we would be seeing even more of it,' said Rozlyn C., a 44-year-old Georgia voter of Cuban descent. 'These idiots are trying to tear down their city,' said Irma C., a 58-year-old Arizona voter of Mexican descent. The few who disapproved of Trump's actions described them as 'too much too soon' or out of bounds. 'There is a chain of command that has to be followed. A governor needs to request — we can't just go in there, the state needs to request. Now, he's just completely gone against that,' Justin of Nevada said, referring to Trump. 'The U.S. military should never be used against its own citizens ever. Period. Ever,' Justin later added. Mostly positive on economy Several of these voters said they supported Trump because they believed he could best address the economy and high prices, and for the most part they like what they've seen of Trump so far on those issues. Eight voters said they feel less anxious about the economy compared to when Trump took office in January. Just two said they were more anxious. 'The reduced anxiety eight of them feel about the economy after just five months reflects not only their experiences as consumers, but also their faith in President Trump as businessman-turned-leader,' said Thau, the focus group moderator. 'As a small-business owner, my costs went up under Biden,' said William A., a 60 year-old Georgia voter of Puerto Rican descent, suggesting Biden's policies raised the price of oil, which impacted 'everything else.' In his view, Trump's policies are 'raising our fuel production and lowering fuel costs.' Mariana, the North Carolina voter who was born in Venezuela, said she backed Trump and the Republican Party because of her concerns about the economy. She said she's seen local grocery prices go down since Trump took office. 'I think that the inflation, economy's what they know and Trump being a businessman is just what he does and has been doing for a living,' she said. But Jennifer, the Michigan voter, said high prices on goods such as eggs, dairy, meat and produce have persisted, and she did not believe that Trump was making addressing inflation a priority. 'I thought it would be a top priority instead of renaming the Gulf of Mexico the 'Gulf of America' instead,' Jennifer said. 'But hopefully it does happen. But definitely, in Michigan here it has not — prices here have gone up and have stayed up. A majority of voters also said they supported Trump's actions on trade and tariffs, with the rest saying they do not know enough about the issue to weigh in. Georgia's Rozlyn C. said she disagreed with the president's decision to impose tariffs on some countries with which the U.S. did not have a trade deficit. But she is still broadly supportive of the president. 'I think he has a grand master plan that most of us probably don't understand,' Rozlyn said. 'But I have faith that he, a hundred percent, has the best interest of our country at heart.'
Axios
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Axios
N.C. swing-voter focus groups: Negative on Tillis while supporting Trump
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups expressed skepticism about re-electing N.C. Sen. Thom Tillis, even as they broadly support President Trump's policies, especially on immigration. Why it matters: While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. The big picture: The Trump-to-Biden voters' said they could not point to any actions he has taken as senator, and only one of the 12 focus group attendees said they would be likely to vote for him. "After more than a decade, Sen. Tillis remains largely unknown to these North Carolina swing voters," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. State of play: Tillis, who faced some backlash from Republicans for his stances on some Trump appointees, looks likely to face a tough re-election campaign next year — especially if former N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, enters the race. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night comprising 12 North Carolinians, all of whom said they voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024. Nine are independents and three are Republicans. What they're saying: "I['ve] just seen so much stuff on TV ... around election time that just had a bad imprint on my mind. You say his name, it's like saying Joe Biden to me," Ashley B., 36, of Arden, said of Tillis. "He hasn't done much for North Carolina, in my opinion," Karen L, 61, of Wilmington said. Driving the news: Top of mind for the focus group, however, was the topic of immigration, especially with so much media coverage focused on anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles. A majority of the focus group said they support President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite reservations about extremism and civil rights violations. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Between the lines: Several panelists cited concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption. A majority objected to Trump's moves to cut university research (though many were unsure of the nature of the cuts) as well as the prospect of Medicaid cuts as part of the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. Research funding cuts are already leading to job and investment cuts at UNC and Duke, both among the state's largest employers. After a decade of debate, Medicaid was expanded in North Carolina last year by the Republican-led General Assembly, giving hundreds of thousands of people coverage. "The people that need [Medicaid benefits], I mean they really need them," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "They need to be able to survive with medications and things like that."
