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Axios
a day ago
- Politics
- Axios
N.C. swing-voter focus groups: Negative on Tillis while supporting Trump
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups expressed skepticism about re-electing N.C. Sen. Thom Tillis, even as they broadly support President Trump's policies, especially on immigration. Why it matters: While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. The big picture: The Trump-to-Biden voters' said they could not point to any actions he has taken as senator, and only one of the 12 focus group attendees said they would be likely to vote for him. "After more than a decade, Sen. Tillis remains largely unknown to these North Carolina swing voters," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. State of play: Tillis, who faced some backlash from Republicans for his stances on some Trump appointees, looks likely to face a tough re-election campaign next year — especially if former N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, enters the race. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night comprising 12 North Carolinians, all of whom said they voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024. Nine are independents and three are Republicans. What they're saying: "I['ve] just seen so much stuff on TV ... around election time that just had a bad imprint on my mind. You say his name, it's like saying Joe Biden to me," Ashley B., 36, of Arden, said of Tillis. "He hasn't done much for North Carolina, in my opinion," Karen L, 61, of Wilmington said. Driving the news: Top of mind for the focus group, however, was the topic of immigration, especially with so much media coverage focused on anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles. A majority of the focus group said they support President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite reservations about extremism and civil rights violations. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Between the lines: Several panelists cited concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption. A majority objected to Trump's moves to cut university research (though many were unsure of the nature of the cuts) as well as the prospect of Medicaid cuts as part of the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. Research funding cuts are already leading to job and investment cuts at UNC and Duke, both among the state's largest employers. After a decade of debate, Medicaid was expanded in North Carolina last year by the Republican-led General Assembly, giving hundreds of thousands of people coverage. "The people that need [Medicaid benefits], I mean they really need them," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "They need to be able to survive with medications and things like that."
Axios
a day ago
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: North Carolina swing voters mostly OK with Trump's LA response
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups supported President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite some concerns about civil rights and government overreach. The big picture: These Biden-to-Trump voters' desire to eject undocumented migrants from the U.S. — and their critical views of California and Democrats — shape how they see this massive test of executive power playing out far from their own hometowns. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Eight of the 12 said they believe Democrats prioritize illegal immigrants over American citizens. Why it matters: "Democrats who doubt their party remains out of touch with swing voters will be stunned by what these North Carolinians told us about immigration," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night with North Carolinians who said they voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. The panelists included nine independents and three Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: "The stance California has on illegal immigration only enables all these people, and they're not going to stop it," said Gregory D., 43, of Greensboro. "So we need to bring it up another level. It needs to stop. California doesn't want to stop it." "It's in the best interest of the nation that we call this, I don't know, uprising, call it what you want, but yeah, that needs to get nipped in the bud, just like George Floyd and all that sh*t should have," said Alex H., 44, of Charlotte. Butch F., 58, of Mebane, said he believes illegal immigrants got government assistance that reduced North Carolinians' access to disaster funds. Gerius J., 33, of Charlotte, said he's for diversity but wants to "do it the right way. Get the right paperwork, the right documentation." He said Democrats "have always wanted illegals to come here," and if anyone objects, "you're the bad guy. And as a U.S. citizen, I'm not the bad guy. I just want things to be done the right way." The other side: Karen L., 61, of Wilmington, said of Trump's immigration actions, "When he first started out, it seemed like he was really going after the criminals — like, the ones committing murder and rape — and he was getting all of them. And we don't want them here if they're [here] illegally, especially. But now ... it's way too extreme, and he's violating civil rights, and he's causing more chaos than anything." Rachid O., 46, of Raleigh, said the administration should prioritize arresting and deporting criminals, above all undocumented immigrants. Many undocumented immigrants pay taxes "so they contribute to the country," he said. Between the lines: Shifting the focus to combating illegal immigration may help him with some voters who have cooled on his performance in other areas. Several panelists voiced concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption and objected to Trump's moves to cut university research, or possible Medicaid cuts in the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. "It's getting harder and harder to afford things," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "We are just kind of told, 'Hey, you just got to bear with us just a little bit more,' and it doesn't feel like it's getting any easier." Shauna S., 54, of Harrisburg, said when it comes to tariffs, "There's no plan, and it's been erratic. It appears to be an opportunity to manipulate the markets, and I really want someone to investigate where and who's actually gaining financially every time these tariffs are being threatened and then removed. I'm just curious what's really happening."
Axios
23-05-2025
- Business
- Axios
Focus group: Wisconsin swing voters stick with Trump
Wisconsin swing voters who switched from former President Biden to President Trump in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups are mostly standing by Trump despite reservations. Why it matters: The speed and scale of Trump's tariffs aren't sitting well even with some who agree with the idea of tariffs. Some said they don't like Trump's treatment of neighboring ally Canada, his incivility and bullying, or his ambiguity about whether he'll abide by court rulings. But that's mostly outweighed by their faith that Trump's moves will eventually boost jobs, pay and fairness for American workers — even if it means paying more now. They also blame Biden and other politicians more than Trump for the current situation. The big picture: Nine of the 12 participants said they approve overall of Trump's actions since taking office. None of the 12 said they would pick Kamala Harris if they could get a do-over. "These Wisconsin swing voters view Trump transactionally," said Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups."They tolerate the parts of him they don't like so they can get the parts they do like." How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night comprised of 12 Wisconsinites, all of whom said they voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024. Ten are independents and two are Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: "I feel like both parties knew this needed to be done for a long time," said Lance Y., 54. "It was just a matter of which party was going to have the balls to go out and do it, and then the other party was going to complain about it. So Trump finally had the balls to say, 'Listen, we got to do this, we know it's going to hurt,' and now the other party's complaining." Alyson T., 47, said, "I'm OK with the tariffs," but Trump is "hitting it so hard. I'm a small business owner, so it's creating a lot of anxiety with people's spending right now that we're seeing. It's hitting really hard just because people are unsure." Zoom in: Trump's recent comment that sacrifice might mean children only get two dolls instead of 30 rubbed participants wrong. "It reminds me of Marie Antoinette," said Chris O., 49. "It's a little bit like 'let them eat cake' ... it just seemed like a disconnect with the average American person." "He was trivializing what is actually happening," said Kelly K., 45. "We're not concerned about an extra toy for our children. The children are not upset about that. We're concerned about having food and being able to afford groceries or getting enough hours at work that our employer can give us." What we're watching: Focus group participants said Trump must respect the courts, especially the Supreme Court, and clearly opposed deporting U.S. citizens without due process. But they were less sure about how due process applies, or what proof or appeal the administration should have to provide before deportation, if the government claims a person lacks status to remain in the U.S. Only four of the 12 felt Trump needs to engage the government of El Salvador to return Kilmar Armando Ábrego García to the U.S. to be properly adjudicated. The U.S. erroneously sent Ábrego García to a prison in his home country despite a judge's ruling that he could not be deported to El Salvador because his life would be in danger. Ruben R., 46, said while the U.S. administration had acted in error and Abrego Garcia should have had due process, "It's too late now," and shrugged it off, saying that from "what I heard, El Salvador crime is really low, so he should be safe now."
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Trump Voters Who Like What They See
Earlier this month, after it became clear that the Trump administration would not be facilitating the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from a Salvadoran megaprison, I texted a close childhood friend. He'd voted for Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections, and I asked for his evaluation. 'Trump might be taking it too far,' my friend replied. 'But then again,' he added, 'he's a man of action and we wanted change.' Someday in the future, historians might well point to April 2025 as the first sign of an enduring erosion in Donald Trump's popular support. In just the first week of this month, America witnessed another mass expulsion of federal workers, in this case from several health agencies, followed by a tariff rollout that sent 401(k)s plunging like a Six Flags log flume. Even with stocks partially rebounding, feedback from riders has not been great for the president: Poll after poll has registered a drop in overall support for Trump, with many voters citing economic uncertainty. Trump's numbers on immigration, long a strength of his, are also beginning to slip. Another recent survey suggests that Trump has the lowest approval rating of any newly elected president in at least 70 years. But even as Trump's critics cheer the apparent change of heart among some of his supporters, they face an inconvenient reality: Many of his voters are jubilant. For these happy millions, the first 100 days of Trump's second presidency have been a procession of fulfilled campaign promises—and have brought the country not to the precipice of economic ruin or democratic collapse, but to a golden age of greatness. They see Trump as ushering in a new era of action, according to my conversations with several Trump supporters and pollsters in recent days. 'Even if they don't agree with everything he's doing, he's doing something, and something is better than nothing,' Rich Thau, the president of the nonpartisan qualitative-research firm Engagious, told me. Despite the relentless stream of shocking deportation stories—Abrego Garcia; the Venezuelan makeup artist; the Honduran child with Stage 4 cancer—many Trump voters see the president's handling of immigration as a highlight. The new administration says that ICE has so far carried out 66,000 deportations, a rate that is lower than that of previous administrations but that is partly the result of historically low border crossings. 'It's a night-and-day difference' from the Biden administration, Ben Cadet, a 24-year-old college student from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, told me. Cadet voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump in 2024, partly because he felt that Democrats had moved too far left and partly because he thought that Biden simply hadn't done enough to address illegal immigration. Trump's 'immediate action is something I would have appreciated from a Democrat,' he said. In the early days of the new administration, Cadet regularly called a friend to discuss Trump's executive orders on immigration, foreign policy, and 'the culture war,' he told me. The two would joke that they should cancel their Netflix subscriptions and tune in to Trump instead 'because watching everything he does is kind of hilarious.' [Mark Leibovich: Donald Trump is very busy] Thau, who conducts monthly focus groups of swing voters who supported Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, told me that half of the participants in any given group cannot name a single thing that Biden achieved while in office. For many of them, the past 100 days—including Trump's deportations but also his tariffs, reams of executive orders, college shakedowns, and targeting of the political press—have seemed like 'an incredible flurry of activity by comparison to the guy who came before,' whom they'd already considered old, infirm, and not really in charge. 'I see a lot of politicians that they run and say a lot of things they're going to do, and they don't do any of them,' a woman named Mary told Thau in one of his recent focus groups about Trump (Thau identifies participants by their first name only). 'But I see him, and I approve.' If Democrats want to win back voters they lost to Trump, it would help them to first comprehend his appeal. That appears to be the conceit of the Working Class Project, a series of focus groups recently launched by the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century that attempt to understand why working-class voters have left the Democratic Party. In one of those recent focus groups, a Latino voter in New Jersey described his feelings this way: 'Trump just puts his foot down, and whatever he says, it just happens.' My own interviews reflected a similar sentiment. 'How many presidents have tried to implement everything they said they wanted to accomplish instead of backpedaling?' Timothy Hance, a 34-year-old manufacturing assembler from Ottumwa, Iowa, told me. For some Trump voters, this yearning for action makes them willing to indulge more authoritarian impulses. Self-identified MAGA Republicans are about twice as likely as Americans overall to say that detaining legal residents by mistake is 'acceptable,' according to a new CBS poll. And although most of the Trump supporters I interviewed were not keen on the possibility of sending American citizens convicted of crimes to jail in another country, as Trump has suggested he might do, one voter liked the idea. 'They're hardened criminals. If we can't put them to death, the humane thing would be for us to send them away,' Hance told me. (He also suggested that Trump should plow through the court orders from 'activist judges' holding up deportations. 'It's like, just do it,' Hance said. 'Ignore them.') For the many Americans who are happy right now, Trump's tariffs represent another exciting paradigm shift. 'The dream of globalism is going by the wayside,' Joe Marazzo, a 29-year-old property manager from Jacksonville, Florida, told me. 'It might not work, but at least we're trying something.' Sure, the president has retreated from his original plan to slap enormous import taxes on 90 countries, including the winged populace of Heard Island and McDonald Islands. But the still-high tariffs on Chinese goods are an important course correction and worth any discomfort they might cause, some Trump supporters say. 'It'll take a year. You can't build car plants in two days,' Jerry Helmer, the chair of the Sauk County Republican Party, in Wisconsin, told me. Theodore John Fitzgerald, the leader of a pro-Trump grassroots group in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, likened the short-term pain from the tariffs to subsisting on ramen noodles in college—or switching to a healthier diet. 'I have diabetes,' Fitzgerald told me. 'There's a little pain and suffering to make sure I don't lose any more toes.' [Sarah Longwell: The Trump voters who are losing patience] Some of Trump's staunchest defenders acknowledged to me that they might reassess their loyalty if a forthcoming trade war results in an untenable increase in their cost of living. Others, though, said that they find it difficult to even fathom such a redline. 'My hobby is hot-air ballooning,' Hance, from Iowa, told me with a chuckle. He'd rethink his support for Trump 'if that was banned.' Of course, Trump and his Republican allies cannot afford to make appeals to only their most ardent supporters. Not everyone is interested in the belt-cinching that tariffs might require. Overall, Americans are unhappy with the nation's economy, and 59 percent of the public now says that Trump has made economic conditions worse, according to a CNN survey released on Monday. 'Even folks who like him and think that he has good ideas tell us in focus groups that they hope they don't have to pay a lot in tariffs,' Margie Omero, a pollster at the Democratic research firm GBAO, told me. In a recent focus group that Omero conducted of 13 independents who had voted for Trump in the 2024 election, most participants gave the president a B or C grade, although none of them regretted their vote. With roughly 1,300 days left in Trump's presidency, many of his critics are hopeful that his recent dip in approval marks an inflection point, like the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that sparked Biden's own backslide in public esteem. Communication is key to keeping Trump's unfavorables high, Omero told me. 'Some voters still aren't getting the message' about Trump's actions, she said. Many Americans believe that Trump has been too aggressive with his use of executive power, and in order to defeat him and his political allies, Omero argued, Trump's opponents need to help more Americans understand 'that what he's doing is unprecedented and is going against the Court.' Omero is right that many Americans probably haven't paid much attention to the details of Trump's first 100 days. But it's also true that, if and when they eventually tune in, some of them are going to like what they hear. Article originally published at The Atlantic
Atlantic
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Atlantic
The Trump Voters Who Like What They See
Earlier this month, after it became clear that the Trump administration would not be facilitating the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from a Salvadoran mega-prison, I texted a close childhood friend. He'd voted for Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections, and I asked for his evaluation. 'Trump might be taking it too far,' my friend replied. 'But then again,' he added, 'he's a man of action and we wanted change.' Someday in the future, historians might well point to April 2025 as the first sign of an enduring erosion in Donald Trump's popular support. In just the first week of this month, America witnessed another mass expulsion of federal workers, in this case from several health agencies, followed by a tariff rollout that sent 401(k)s plunging like a Six Flags log flume. Even with stocks partially rebounding, feedback from riders has not been great for the president: Poll after poll has registered a drop in overall support for Trump, with many voters citing economic uncertainty. Trump's numbers on immigration, long a strength of his, are also beginning to slip. Another recent survey suggests that Trump has the lowest approval rating of any newly elected president in at least 70 years. But even as Trump's critics cheer the apparent change of heart among some of his supporters, they face an inconvenient reality: Many of his voters are jubilant. For these happy millions, the first 100 days of Trump's second presidency have been a procession of fulfilled campaign promises—and have brought the country not to the precipice of economic ruin or democratic collapse, but to a golden age of greatness. They see Trump as ushering in a new era of action, according to my conversations with several Trump supporters and pollsters in recent days. 'Even if they don't agree with everything he's doing, he's doing something, and something is better than nothing,' Rich Thau, the president of the nonpartisan qualitative-research firm Engagious, told me. Despite the relentless stream of shocking deportation stories— Abrego Garcia; the Venezuelan makeup artist; the Honduran child with Stage 4 cancer —many Trump voters see the president's handling of immigration as a highlight. The new administration says that ICE has so far carried out 66,000 deportations, a rate that is lower than that of previous administrations but that is partly the result of historically low border crossings. 'It's a night-and-day difference' from the Biden administration, Ben Cadet, a 24-year-old college student from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, told me. Cadet voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump in 2024, partly because he felt that Democrats had moved too far left and partly because he thought that Biden simply hadn't done enough to address illegal immigration. Trump's 'immediate action is something I would have appreciated from a Democrat,' he said. In the early days of the new administration, Cadet regularly called a friend to discuss Trump's executive orders on immigration, foreign policy, and 'the culture war,' he told me. The two would joke that they should cancel their Netflix subscriptions and tune in to Trump instead 'because watching everything he does is kind of hilarious.' Mark Leibovich: Donald Trump is very busy Thau, who conducts monthly focus groups of swing voters who supported Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, told me that half of the participants in any given group cannot name a single thing that Biden achieved while in office. For many of them, the past 100 days—including Trump's deportations but also his tariffs, reams of executive orders, college shakedowns, and targeting of the political press—have seemed like 'an incredible flurry of activity by comparison to the guy who came before,' whom they'd already considered old, infirm, and not really in charge. 'I see a lot of politicians that they run and say a lot of things they're going to do, and they don't do any of them,' a woman named Mary told Thau in one of his recent focus groups about Trump (Thau identifies participants by their first name only). 'But I see him, and I approve.' If Democrats want to win back voters they lost to Trump, it would help them to first comprehend his appeal. That appears to be the conceit of the Working Class Project, a series of focus groups recently launched by the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century that attempt to understand why working-class voters have left the Democratic Party. In one of those recent focus groups, a Latino voter in New Jersey described his feelings this way: 'Trump just puts his foot down, and whatever he says, it just happens.' My own interviews reflected a similar sentiment. 'How many presidents have tried to implement everything they said they wanted to accomplish instead of backpedaling?' Timothy Hance, a 34-year-old manufacturing assembler from Ottumwa, Iowa, told me. For some Trump voters, this yearning for action makes them willing to indulge more authoritarian impulses. Self-identified MAGA Republicans are about twice as likely as Americans overall to say that detaining legal residents by mistake is 'acceptable,' according to a new CBS poll. And although most of the Trump supporters I interviewed were not keen on the possibility of sending American citizens convicted of crimes to jail in another country, as Trump has suggested he might do, one voter liked the idea. 'They're hardened criminals. If we can't put them to death, the humane thing would be for us to send them away,' Hance told me. (He also suggested that Trump should plow through the court orders from 'activist judges' holding up deportations. 'It's like, just do it,' Hance said. 'Ignore them.') For the many Americans who are happy right now, Trump's tariffs represent another exciting paradigm shift. 'The dream of globalism is going by the wayside,' Joe Marazzo, a 29-year-old property manager from Jacksonville, Florida, told me. 'It might not work, but at least we're trying something.' Sure, the president has retreated from his original plan to slap enormous import taxes on 90 countries, including the winged populace of Heard Island and McDonald Islands. But the still-high tariffs on Chinese goods are an important course correction and worth any discomfort they might cause, some Trump supporters say. 'It'll take a year. You can't build car plants in two days,' Jerry Helmer, the chair of the Sauk County Republican Party, in Wisconsin, told me. Theodore John Fitzgerald, the leader of a pro-Trump grassroots group in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, likened the short-term pain from the tariffs to subsisting on ramen noodles in college—or switching to a healthier diet. 'I have diabetes,' Fitzgerald told me. 'There's a little pain and suffering to make sure I don't lose any more toes.' Sarah Longwell: The Trump voters who are losing patience Some of Trump's staunchest defenders acknowledged to me that they might reassess their loyalty if a forthcoming trade war results in an untenable increase in their cost of living. Others, though, said that they find it difficult to even fathom such a redline. 'My hobby is hot-air ballooning,' Hance, from Iowa, told me with a chuckle. He'd rethink his support for Trump 'if that was banned.' Of course, Trump and his Republican allies cannot afford to make appeals to only their most ardent supporters. Not everyone is interested in the belt-cinching that tariffs might require. Overall, Americans are unhappy with the nation's economy, and 59 percent of the public now says that Trump has made economic conditions worse, according to a CNN survey released on Monday. 'Even folks who like him and think that he has good ideas tell us in focus groups that they hope they don't have to pay a lot in tariffs,' Margie Omero, a pollster at the Democratic research firm GBAO, told me. In a recent focus group that Omero conducted of 13 independents who had voted for Trump in the 2024 election, most participants gave the president a B or C grade, although none of them regretted their vote. With roughly 1,300 days left in Trump's presidency, many of his critics are hopeful that his recent dip in approval marks an inflection point, like the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that sparked Biden's own backslide in public esteem. Communication is key to keeping Trump's unfavorables high, Omero told me. 'Some voters still aren't getting the message' about Trump's actions, she said. Many Americans believe that Trump has been too aggressive with his use of executive power, and in order to defeat him and his political allies, Omero argued, Trump's opponents need to help more Americans understand 'that what he's doing is unprecedented and is going against the Court.' Omero is right that many Americans probably haven't paid much attention to the details of Trump's first 100 days. But it's also true that, if and when they eventually tune in, some of them are going to like what they hear.
