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Sydney Morning Herald
6 days ago
- Science
- Sydney Morning Herald
Donald Trump's climate cuts mean Australian forecasting is at risk
Among those systems at risk is the Argo float program, a swarm of drifting devices that measures the temperature and salinity of the top two kilometres of oceans every 10 days. The US funds more than half the $60 million array, including 380 of these floats in Australia's own search and rescue domain. The looming funding cuts may mean the US removes 900 floats a year. It may also stop paying the $2 million annual data transmission costs and sack the eight-person team in the US that processes the information for global use. Short-term ocean forecasts, particularly in the tropics where US Argo floats predominate, would be rendered useless for most applications, should the cuts occur. A hint that national security may be compromised is the risk posed to the related Bluelink ocean prediction service, which won a Department of Defence Eureka Prize for outstanding science in safeguarding Australia in 2024. Then there's the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), among a slew of climate labs and co-operative institutes with 420 staff that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been earmarked to close next year. As The Conversation noted in an article last week, Australia has relied on PMEL for early warnings to declare every El Nino and La Nina for the past 30 years. Similarly, a vital component of Australia's ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator) climate model is developed primarily at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Without GFDL, the pace of model progress would be halved, affecting a program that underpins all Australian climate projections used by industry and government for planning and climate risk. The Climate Change Authority is monitoring the threats closely. Just last week, we published a report on the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Grim as it is – unless the world slashes carbon emissions – the work relied on data from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch, another service in doubt. Our Bureau of Meteorology tracks Coral Sea temperature changes, but not to NOAA's standard. Loading The authority welcomes efforts by Australia's science agencies, universities and government departments to assess where our most pressing vulnerabilities lie. The US has put us on notice, even if our worst fears aren't realised. For insurance, we must invest more in our domestic capabilities and forge new partnerships abroad, not least because the challenges – from carbon emissions cuts to climate adaptation – are going to intensify. It's worth recalling that collaboration on weather forecasting persisted through the Cold War because of the clear global good. The World Meteorological Organisation marked 75 years in March, as one example, and international teamwork will be a central theme of this year's global climate change summit in Brazil.
Sydney Morning Herald
04-08-2025
- Science
- Sydney Morning Herald
Trump's climate cuts mean Australian forecasting is at risk
Among those systems at risk is the Argo float program, a swarm of drifting devices that measures the temperature and salinity of the top two kilometres of oceans every 10 days. The US funds more than half the $60 million array, including 380 of these floats in Australia's own search and rescue domain. The looming funding cuts may mean the US removes 900 floats a year. It may also stop paying the $2 million annual data transmission costs and sack the eight-person team in the US that processes the information for global use. Short-term ocean forecasts, particularly in the tropics where US Argo floats predominate, would be rendered useless for most applications, should the cuts occur. A hint that national security may be compromised is the risk posed to the related Bluelink ocean prediction service, which won a Department of Defence Eureka Prize for outstanding science in safeguarding Australia in 2024. Then there's the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), among a slew of climate labs and co-operative institutes with 420 staff that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been earmarked to close next year. As The Conversation noted in an article last week, Australia has relied on PMEL for early warnings to declare every El Nino and La Nina for the past 30 years. Similarly, a vital component of Australia's ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator) climate model is developed primarily at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Without GFDL, the pace of model progress would be halved, affecting a program that underpins all Australian climate projections used by industry and government for planning and climate risk. The Climate Change Authority is monitoring the threats closely. Just last week, we published a report on the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Grim as it is – unless the world slashes carbon emissions – the work relied on data from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch, another service in doubt. Our Bureau of Meteorology tracks Coral Sea temperature changes, but not to NOAA's standard. Loading The authority welcomes efforts by Australia's science agencies, universities and government departments to assess where our most pressing vulnerabilities lie. The US has put us on notice, even if our worst fears aren't realised. For insurance, we must invest more in our domestic capabilities and forge new partnerships abroad, not least because the challenges – from carbon emissions cuts to climate adaptation – are going to intensify. It's worth recalling that collaboration on weather forecasting persisted through the Cold War because of the clear global good. The World Meteorological Organisation marked 75 years in March, as one example, and international teamwork will be a central theme of this year's global climate change summit in Brazil.
The Age
04-08-2025
- Science
- The Age
Trump's climate cuts mean Australian forecasting is at risk
Among those systems at risk is the Argo float program, a swarm of drifting devices that measures the temperature and salinity of the top two kilometres of oceans every 10 days. The US funds more than half the $60 million array, including 380 of these floats in Australia's own search and rescue domain. The looming funding cuts may mean the US removes 900 floats a year. It may also stop paying the $2 million annual data transmission costs and sack the eight-person team in the US that processes the information for global use. Short-term ocean forecasts, particularly in the tropics where US Argo floats predominate, would be rendered useless for most applications, should the cuts occur. A hint that national security may be compromised is the risk posed to the related Bluelink ocean prediction service, which won a Department of Defence Eureka Prize for outstanding science in safeguarding Australia in 2024. Then there's the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), among a slew of climate labs and co-operative institutes with 420 staff that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been earmarked to close next year. As The Conversation noted in an article last week, Australia has relied on PMEL for early warnings to declare every El Nino and La Nina for the past 30 years. Similarly, a vital component of Australia's ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator) climate model is developed primarily at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Without GFDL, the pace of model progress would be halved, affecting a program that underpins all Australian climate projections used by industry and government for planning and climate risk. The Climate Change Authority is monitoring the threats closely. Just last week, we published a report on the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Grim as it is – unless the world slashes carbon emissions – the work relied on data from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch, another service in doubt. Our Bureau of Meteorology tracks Coral Sea temperature changes, but not to NOAA's standard. Loading The authority welcomes efforts by Australia's science agencies, universities and government departments to assess where our most pressing vulnerabilities lie. The US has put us on notice, even if our worst fears aren't realised. For insurance, we must invest more in our domestic capabilities and forge new partnerships abroad, not least because the challenges – from carbon emissions cuts to climate adaptation – are going to intensify. It's worth recalling that collaboration on weather forecasting persisted through the Cold War because of the clear global good. The World Meteorological Organisation marked 75 years in March, as one example, and international teamwork will be a central theme of this year's global climate change summit in Brazil.
