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Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff fog clouds outlook for Europe Inc after robust first quarter
By Samuel Indyk and Danilo Masoni LONDON (Reuters) -Europe Inc has weathered the turbulence sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies to deliver resilient first-quarter earnings, but in spite of the newly-minted trade truce, investors still face a fog of uncertainty. According to LSEG I/B/E/S, first quarter earnings are expected to have increased 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago, marking the fourth straight quarter of growth. Excluding the energy sector, earnings are expected to have risen 7.3%. The impact of Trump's tariffs and macro-economic uncertainty dominated corporate communications, while some companies warned about the strong euro and its impact on revenue. Cyclical parts of the market struggled, while bank earnings remained robust. Here are five key takeaways: UNCERTAINTY REIGNS Trump's tariff plans cast a shadow over earnings and companies mostly reacted by maintaining or pulling guidance, even as business got off to a relatively strong start to the year. "The last time we had this kind of uncertainty around guidance and companies pointing to a lack of visibility was Q1 in 2020 when COVID started," said Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, equity strategist at Barclays. "This has been the most unclear, or uncertain, earnings season from a guidance standpoint." Despite the relatively upbeat first quarter - where 60% of companies have beaten estimates, compared to a usual quarter of about 54% - consensus estimates for the full year have still been cut aggressively over the last two months. "It's going to be difficult to project first quarter earnings further down the year because so much has happened since the end of the quarter," said Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac. MISSES PUNISHED BY MOST IN A DECADE As has been the case in recent quarters, earnings misses have been heavily penalised by the market, in part because expectations had been downgraded heading into reporting season. According to Goldman Sachs, the average relative price reaction for companies reporting below expectations has been a 2% drop, the most severe of the last 10 years. Rewards for earnings beats remain in line with the historical average. "There was probably expectation that some of the numbers in Q1 would have the benefit of front-loading and companies pulling activity forward because they were unsure what was going to happen in Q2," said Maarten Geerdink, head of the European equities team in fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "So even though earnings expectations had dripped down, the market still believed they could beat these numbers. That's weighed pretty heavily on these misses." EURO RALLY ADDS TO HEADWINDS Not only were corporates worried about tariffs, but they sounded the alarm over the unexpected strength of the euro, as investors shunned dollar assets after Trump's tariff blitz. The single currency has surged about 10% against the dollar since its February trough, and although it has pulled back slightly since the U.S./China tariff pause, it remains elevated. This is a problem, given about 60% of revenues for companies on Europe's STOXX 600 index are generated abroad. "It's an issue for exporters. When you have tariffs and a stronger currency on top of that it becomes a double whammy," said Barclays' Chandrasekaran. "The sharp cuts (to earnings expectations) have come for the export-oriented part of the market," he added. Companies that flagged currency movements as a potential headwind in the year ahead included Europe's largest company SAP, Munich Re, Bayer, Prysmian, Unilever and L'Oreal. BANKS UNFAZED Bank earnings have largely weathered the market volatility around U.S. tariffs. Many lenders beat expectations and stuck to their 2025 forecasts – a clear departure from prevailing corporate caution. Even with pressures from moderating interest rates, their latest updates showed resilience in the face of global trade and macro uncertainties. UBS estimates nearly 90% of banks beat market consensus, largely driven by strong revenue performances. The sector trades cheaply based on various metrics, and even after a 28% surge this year, it remains in favour among investors attracted by high payouts and stronger balance sheets. According to BofA's European fund manager survey, banks reclaimed their spot as the most overweighted sector this month, with financial stocks expected to be the best performers this year. "Bank numbers are all very strong," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. ENERGY EARNINGS DRAG Seven of the 10 major sectors tracked by LSEG I/B/E/S have seen growth in earnings relative to the first quarter of 2024, but energy is not one of them, with the sector expected to report earnings down 28% from the same period a year ago. "There's a very clear correlation between profitability and the oil price, and the oil price has come off," GSAM's Geerdink said. "It's a function of two things, lower economic activity and OPEC producing much more than anticipated." Oil prices tumbled to a four-year low last month on concerns about demand following Trump's tariffs, but have since rebounded slightly as trade tensions thawed. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Trump's tariff fog clouds outlook for Europe Inc after robust first quarter
LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Europe Inc has weathered the turbulence sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies to deliver resilient first-quarter earnings, but in spite of the newly-minted trade truce, opens new tab, investors still face a fog of uncertainty. According to LSEG I/B/E/S, first quarter earnings are expected to have increased 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago, marking the fourth straight quarter of growth. Excluding the energy sector, earnings are expected to have risen 7.3%. The impact of Trump's tariffs and macro-economic uncertainty dominated corporate communications, while some companies warned about the strong euro and its impact on revenue. Cyclical parts of the market struggled, while bank earnings remained robust. Here are five key takeaways: Trump's tariff plans cast a shadow over earnings and companies mostly reacted by maintaining or pulling guidance, even as business got off to a relatively strong start to the year. "The last time we had this kind of uncertainty around guidance and companies pointing to a lack of visibility was Q1 in 2020 when COVID started," said Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, equity strategist at Barclays. "This has been the most unclear, or uncertain, earnings season from a guidance standpoint." Despite the relatively upbeat first quarter - where 60% of companies have beaten estimates, compared to a usual quarter of about 54% - consensus estimates for the full year have still been cut aggressively over the last two months. "It's going to be difficult to project first quarter earnings further down the year because so much has happened since the end of the quarter," said Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac. As has been the case in recent quarters, earnings misses have been heavily penalised by the market, in part because expectations had been downgraded heading into reporting season. According to Goldman Sachs, the average relative price reaction for companies reporting below expectations has been a 2% drop, the most severe of the last 10 years. Rewards for earnings beats remain in line with the historical average. "There was probably expectation that some of the numbers in Q1 would have the benefit of front-loading and companies pulling activity forward because they were unsure what was going to happen in Q2," said Maarten Geerdink, head of the European equities team in fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "So even though earnings expectations had dripped down, the market still believed they could beat these numbers. That's weighed pretty heavily on these misses." Not only were corporates worried about tariffs, but they sounded the alarm over the unexpected strength of the euro, as investors shunned dollar assets after Trump's tariff blitz. The single currency has surged about 10% against the dollar since its February trough, and although it has pulled back slightly since the U.S./China tariff pause, it remains elevated. This is a problem, given about 60% of revenues for companies on Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab index are generated abroad. "It's an issue for exporters. When you have tariffs and a stronger currency on top of that it becomes a double whammy," said Barclays' Chandrasekaran. "The sharp cuts (to earnings expectations) have come for the export-oriented part of the market," he added. Companies that flagged currency movements as a potential headwind in the year ahead included Europe's largest company SAP ( opens new tab, Munich Re ( opens new tab, Bayer ( opens new tab, Prysmian ( opens new tab, Unilever (ULVR.L), opens new tab and L'Oreal ( opens new tab. Bank earnings have largely weathered the market volatility around U.S. tariffs. Many lenders beat expectations and stuck to their 2025 forecasts – a clear departure from prevailing corporate caution. Even with pressures from moderating interest rates, their latest updates showed resilience in the face of global trade and macro uncertainties. UBS estimates nearly 90% of banks beat market consensus, largely driven by strong revenue performances. The sector trades cheaply based on various metrics, and even after a 28% surge this year, it remains in favour among investors attracted by high payouts and stronger balance sheets. According to BofA's European fund manager survey, banks reclaimed their spot as the most overweighted sector this month, with financial stocks expected to be the best performers this year. "Bank numbers are all very strong," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. Seven of the 10 major sectors tracked by LSEG I/B/E/S have seen growth in earnings relative to the first quarter of 2024, but energy is not one of them, with the sector expected to report earnings down 28% from the same period a year ago. "There's a very clear correlation between profitability and the oil price, and the oil price has come off," GSAM's Geerdink said. "It's a function of two things, lower economic activity and OPEC producing much more than anticipated." Oil prices tumbled to a four-year low last month on concerns about demand following Trump's tariffs, but have since rebounded slightly as trade tensions thawed.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff fog clouds outlook for Europe Inc after robust first quarter
By Samuel Indyk and Danilo Masoni LONDON (Reuters) -Europe Inc has weathered the turbulence sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies to deliver resilient first-quarter earnings, but in spite of the newly-minted trade truce, investors still face a fog of uncertainty. According to LSEG I/B/E/S, first quarter earnings are expected to have increased 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago, marking the fourth straight quarter of growth. Excluding the energy sector, earnings are expected to have risen 7.3%. The impact of Trump's tariffs and macro-economic uncertainty dominated corporate communications, while some companies warned about the strong euro and its impact on revenue. Cyclical parts of the market struggled, while bank earnings remained robust. Here are five key takeaways: UNCERTAINTY REIGNS Trump's tariff plans cast a shadow over earnings and companies mostly reacted by maintaining or pulling guidance, even as business got off to a relatively strong start to the year. "The last time we had this kind of uncertainty around guidance and companies pointing to a lack of visibility was Q1 in 2020 when COVID started," said Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, equity strategist at Barclays. "This has been the most unclear, or uncertain, earnings season from a guidance standpoint." Despite the relatively upbeat first quarter - where 60% of companies have beaten estimates, compared to a usual quarter of about 54% - consensus estimates for the full year have still been cut aggressively over the last two months. "It's going to be difficult to project first quarter earnings further down the year because so much has happened since the end of the quarter," said Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac. MISSES PUNISHED BY MOST IN A DECADE As has been the case in recent quarters, earnings misses have been heavily penalised by the market, in part because expectations had been downgraded heading into reporting season. According to Goldman Sachs, the average relative price reaction for companies reporting below expectations has been a 2% drop, the most severe of the last 10 years. Rewards for earnings beats remain in line with the historical average. "There was probably expectation that some of the numbers in Q1 would have the benefit of front-loading and companies pulling activity forward because they were unsure what was going to happen in Q2," said Maarten Geerdink, head of the European equities team in fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "So even though earnings expectations had dripped down, the market still believed they could beat these numbers. That's weighed pretty heavily on these misses." EURO RALLY ADDS TO HEADWINDS Not only were corporates worried about tariffs, but they sounded the alarm over the unexpected strength of the euro, as investors shunned dollar assets after Trump's tariff blitz. The single currency has surged about 10% against the dollar since its February trough, and although it has pulled back slightly since the U.S./China tariff pause, it remains elevated. This is a problem, given about 60% of revenues for companies on Europe's STOXX 600 index are generated abroad. "It's an issue for exporters. When you have tariffs and a stronger currency on top of that it becomes a double whammy," said Barclays' Chandrasekaran. "The sharp cuts (to earnings expectations) have come for the export-oriented part of the market," he added. Companies that flagged currency movements as a potential headwind in the year ahead included Europe's largest company SAP, Munich Re, Bayer, Prysmian, Unilever and L'Oreal. BANKS UNFAZED Bank earnings have largely weathered the market volatility around U.S. tariffs. Many lenders beat expectations and stuck to their 2025 forecasts – a clear departure from prevailing corporate caution. Even with pressures from moderating interest rates, their latest updates showed resilience in the face of global trade and macro uncertainties. UBS estimates nearly 90% of banks beat market consensus, largely driven by strong revenue performances. The sector trades cheaply based on various metrics, and even after a 28% surge this year, it remains in favour among investors attracted by high payouts and stronger balance sheets. According to BofA's European fund manager survey, banks reclaimed their spot as the most overweighted sector this month, with financial stocks expected to be the best performers this year. "Bank numbers are all very strong," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. ENERGY EARNINGS DRAG Seven of the 10 major sectors tracked by LSEG I/B/E/S have seen growth in earnings relative to the first quarter of 2024, but energy is not one of them, with the sector expected to report earnings down 28% from the same period a year ago. "There's a very clear correlation between profitability and the oil price, and the oil price has come off," GSAM's Geerdink said. "It's a function of two things, lower economic activity and OPEC producing much more than anticipated." Oil prices tumbled to a four-year low last month on concerns about demand following Trump's tariffs, but have since rebounded slightly as trade tensions thawed. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Play it safe, Uncle Sam
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Glass half empty again The optimism that infused Asian and European markets on Monday evaporated as the global trading session progressed, with U.S. investors taking a 'glass half empty' view on the current global uncertainty surrounding tariffs and outlook for economic growth. Wall Street's underperformance ended up being pretty marginal, but there is little doubt that a re-rating of U.S. assets is underway. More on that below, but first, a roundup of today's moves on world markets. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ If you have more time to read today, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. After 100 days under Trump, investors reassess theallure of 'brand USA' 2. China holds off on new stimulus, shows composure in UStrade war 3. Unexpected euro surge adds to Europe Inc's tariff misery 4. Amid Trump tariffs, China's trade and economy tsar stepsinto spotlight 5. Euro zone economy facing dark future, ECB policymakerswarn Today's Key Market Moves * Wall Street's big indexes sink as much as 1% intraday butrecover by the close of trade. The Dow ends up 0.3%, the S&P 500is essentially flat, and the Nasdaq dips 0.1%. * U.S. tech stocks fall 0.2%; real estate and energy leadthe gainers, rising 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. * India's BSE Sensex rises 1.3% to a fresh high for theyear above 80300 points. * Britain's FTSE 100 rises for 11th consecutive session,its longest winning streak since December 2019. * The yen is the biggest G10 FX gainer, rising more than 1%to 142 yen per dollar. * Sterling jumps 0.9% and matches last September's high of$1.3434. If that breaks, sterling is at levels last seen morethan three years ago. * U.S. bond yields fall by as much as 7 basis points at theshort end, delivering a bull steepening of the curve. * The 'risk off' tone in U.S. trading lifts gold nearly 1%back up toward $3,350/oz. * Oil slides, Brent crude futures losing 1.5% to close at$65.86/bbl Play it safe, Uncle Sam The selling frenzy that rocked world markets three weeks ago may have stopped, but the relief rally that followed now appears to be fading, leaving investors nervously awaiting the next signal. Absent an obvious catalyst like a surprise U.S.-China deal on trade, markets will likely lack direction this week but remain choppy. Several events, including month-end rebalancing, U.S. 'Big Tech' earnings, a Bank of Japan policy meeting and U.S. Q1 GDP and April payrolls, should see to that. Benchmark equity indexes in Brazil, India and Japan have fully recovered their post-'Liberation Day' losses, Germany's DAX on Monday briefly revisited its April 2 close, while the MSCI All Country World Index and Asia ex-Japan index are both within a whisker of regaining their April 2 closing levels too. U.S. President Donald Trump cooling his more belligerent rhetoric on tariffs and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have certainly helped calm the horses, and financial conditions around the world are beginning to loosen again. The dollar's continued decline has been a big part of that loosening, and the greenback retreated again on Monday. Many banks have slashed their long-term dollar forecasts, and there's a case to make that a weaker dollar would be a tailwind for markets and growth around the world in the years ahead. But does that still apply if the dollar is slumping for negative reasons, like a global loss of faith in U.S. policy? What's more, stronger domestic exchange rates will harm non-U.S. companies' earnings and eat into their profit margins. Throw that on top of the tariffs that have still to come into effect, and it's easy to see why the recent sense of relief across markets is fading. Companies in Europe, where the euro has surged around 10%, and Japan, where corporate sensitivity to the exchange rate is always high, may be particularly exposed. UBS strategists argue that a diversified global portfolio should still include "substantial exposure to the world's largest economy and most developed financial markets," and in the more immediate term, they see scope for a 'tactical' recovery in U.S. risk assets, as has often been the case following periods of high volatility and investor pessimism. But many will argue this can't last. Trade and economic uncertainty is too high, visibility is non-existent, and the damage done to markets and investor and business confidence runs much deeper than seems apparent right now. The great US re-rate has begun The panic selling of U.S. stocks and bonds following the Trump administration's 'Liberation Day' tariff bombshell may be over, but the re-rating of American assets is just getting started. The question is just how big this reallocation will be. Money managers are aware that even a modest reduction in exposure could have a potentially huge impact on asset prices. That's both because of the sheer size of U.S. markets relative to total global assets, and the outsized nature of overseas investors' U.S. holdings in nominal terms and as a share of their portfolios. In Treasuries, this overweight exposure is large; in equities it is massive. To illustrate the big impact that even small changes in allocations could have, it's worth recalling some of the numbers involved here. For instance, the global pension fund industry, which is significantly overweight U.S. assets, is worth around $58.5 trillion. Foreign private sector investors have flooded U.S. markets in recent years, pouring a net $3.25 trillion into U.S. assets over the last three full calendar years, according to U.S. Treasury data. Consequently, America's net international investment position is currently negative $26 trillion. U.S. stocks accounted for as much as 75% of the $80 trillion global market cap earlier this year. And at the end of last year, foreign investors owned 18% of U.S. stocks, a record-high share going back to 1945, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. Additionally, Japanese and euro zone investors' U.S. fixed income allocations comprise around 60% of their foreign fixed income holdings and about 15% of their total fixed income portfolios, according to strategists at Exante Data. European investors' U.S. allocation has roughly doubled over the last decade, they note. PENDULUM SWUNG TOO FAR? Looking ahead, the concern is not that we will see blanket selling of U.S. assets by foreign investors or that the dollar will no longer be considered the world's reserve currency. Those scenarios will probably not happen in our lifetimes. But we are likely to see modest shifts that could have major price impacts. Anecdotal evidence suggests some Canadian and European pension funds that have baulked at the Trump administration's trade, economic and wider policy agendas, have already started reducing exposure to U.S. assets. They won't be the only ones. "I think the coming months will see global portfolios moderately reduce U.S. allocations, more so overseas investors than domestic U.S. investors," says Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates. If global investors do trim their U.S. holdings, there will be both a one-off hit to asset prices and a long-term reduction in upside potential because the level of future demand will be weaker. This will be mitigated if U.S. investors fill the gap. But that could be difficult. At the end of last year, U.S. households' equity holdings as a share of their total assets and total financial assets were at record highs of 29.5% and 43.5%, respectively. Exante Data's team notes that around 95% of U.S. investors' fixed income holdings are already allocated domestically. The 'anti-U.S.' pendulum may have swung too far in recent weeks. Bank of America's April global fund manager survey found that a record share of investors intend to cut their U.S. stock holdings, the U.S. corporate profit outlook is the gloomiest since 2007, and the outlook for the U.S. dollar is the most bearish since 2006. The risk premium on U.S. markets has risen, with bond yields up and the 'term premium' on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note the highest in a decade. And for good reason, given the volatility seen since President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Prices are adjusting, as they should. How long that adjustment will take and how deep it will be remains to be seen. The unmatched depth, liquidity and dynamism of U.S. financial markets are not in doubt. But in the new world order fast emerging from the Trump administration's 'America First' drive, U.S. assets' relative attractiveness certainly is. What could move markets tomorrow? * Chinese earnings, including from financial heavyweightsBank of China, HSBC, China Construction Bank and ICBC * European Central Bank Executive Board member PieroCipollone speaks * Bank of England deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks * Germany GfK consumer confidence (May) * U.S. consumer confidence (April) * Reaction to Monday's Canadian general election Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (By Jamie McGeever, editing by Bill Berkrot) Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Play it safe, Uncle Sam
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Glass half empty again The optimism that infused Asian and European markets on Monday evaporated as the global trading session progressed, with U.S. investors taking a 'glass half empty' view on the current global uncertainty surrounding tariffs and outlook for economic growth. Wall Street's underperformance ended up being pretty marginal, but there is little doubt that a re-rating of U.S. assets is underway. More on that below, but first, a roundup of today's moves on world markets. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ If you have more time to read today, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. After 100 days under Trump, investors reassess theallure of 'brand USA' 2. China holds off on new stimulus, shows composure in UStrade war 3. Unexpected euro surge adds to Europe Inc's tariff misery 4. Amid Trump tariffs, China's trade and economy tsar stepsinto spotlight 5. Euro zone economy facing dark future, ECB policymakerswarn Today's Key Market Moves * Wall Street's big indexes sink as much as 1% intraday butrecover by the close of trade. The Dow ends up 0.3%, the S&P 500is essentially flat, and the Nasdaq dips 0.1%. * U.S. tech stocks fall 0.2%; real estate and energy leadthe gainers, rising 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. * India's BSE Sensex rises 1.3% to a fresh high for theyear above 80300 points. * Britain's FTSE 100 rises for 11th consecutive session,its longest winning streak since December 2019. * The yen is the biggest G10 FX gainer, rising more than 1%to 142 yen per dollar. * Sterling jumps 0.9% and matches last September's high of$1.3434. If that breaks, sterling is at levels last seen morethan three years ago. * U.S. bond yields fall by as much as 7 basis points at theshort end, delivering a bull steepening of the curve. * The 'risk off' tone in U.S. trading lifts gold nearly 1%back up toward $3,350/oz. * Oil slides, Brent crude futures losing 1.5% to close at$65.86/bbl Play it safe, Uncle Sam The selling frenzy that rocked world markets three weeks ago may have stopped, but the relief rally that followed now appears to be fading, leaving investors nervously awaiting the next signal. Absent an obvious catalyst like a surprise U.S.-China deal on trade, markets will likely lack direction this week but remain choppy. Several events, including month-end rebalancing, U.S. 'Big Tech' earnings, a Bank of Japan policy meeting and U.S. Q1 GDP and April payrolls, should see to that. Benchmark equity indexes in Brazil, India and Japan have fully recovered their post-'Liberation Day' losses, Germany's DAX on Monday briefly revisited its April 2 close, while the MSCI All Country World Index and Asia ex-Japan index are both within a whisker of regaining their April 2 closing levels too. U.S. President Donald Trump cooling his more belligerent rhetoric on tariffs and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have certainly helped calm the horses, and financial conditions around the world are beginning to loosen again. The dollar's continued decline has been a big part of that loosening, and the greenback retreated again on Monday. Many banks have slashed their long-term dollar forecasts, and there's a case to make that a weaker dollar would be a tailwind for markets and growth around the world in the years ahead. But does that still apply if the dollar is slumping for negative reasons, like a global loss of faith in U.S. policy? What's more, stronger domestic exchange rates will harm non-U.S. companies' earnings and eat into their profit margins. Throw that on top of the tariffs that have still to come into effect, and it's easy to see why the recent sense of relief across markets is fading. Companies in Europe, where the euro has surged around 10%, and Japan, where corporate sensitivity to the exchange rate is always high, may be particularly exposed. UBS strategists argue that a diversified global portfolio should still include "substantial exposure to the world's largest economy and most developed financial markets," and in the more immediate term, they see scope for a 'tactical' recovery in U.S. risk assets, as has often been the case following periods of high volatility and investor pessimism. But many will argue this can't last. Trade and economic uncertainty is too high, visibility is non-existent, and the damage done to markets and investor and business confidence runs much deeper than seems apparent right now. The great US re-rate has begun The panic selling of U.S. stocks and bonds following the Trump administration's 'Liberation Day' tariff bombshell may be over, but the re-rating of American assets is just getting started. The question is just how big this reallocation will be. Money managers are aware that even a modest reduction in exposure could have a potentially huge impact on asset prices. That's both because of the sheer size of U.S. markets relative to total global assets, and the outsized nature of overseas investors' U.S. holdings in nominal terms and as a share of their portfolios. In Treasuries, this overweight exposure is large; in equities it is massive. To illustrate the big impact that even small changes in allocations could have, it's worth recalling some of the numbers involved here. For instance, the global pension fund industry, which is significantly overweight U.S. assets, is worth around $58.5 trillion. Foreign private sector investors have flooded U.S. markets in recent years, pouring a net $3.25 trillion into U.S. assets over the last three full calendar years, according to U.S. Treasury data. Consequently, America's net international investment position is currently negative $26 trillion. U.S. stocks accounted for as much as 75% of the $80 trillion global market cap earlier this year. And at the end of last year, foreign investors owned 18% of U.S. stocks, a record-high share going back to 1945, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. Additionally, Japanese and euro zone investors' U.S. fixed income allocations comprise around 60% of their foreign fixed income holdings and about 15% of their total fixed income portfolios, according to strategists at Exante Data. European investors' U.S. allocation has roughly doubled over the last decade, they note. PENDULUM SWUNG TOO FAR? Looking ahead, the concern is not that we will see blanket selling of U.S. assets by foreign investors or that the dollar will no longer be considered the world's reserve currency. Those scenarios will probably not happen in our lifetimes. But we are likely to see modest shifts that could have major price impacts. Anecdotal evidence suggests some Canadian and European pension funds that have baulked at the Trump administration's trade, economic and wider policy agendas, have already started reducing exposure to U.S. assets. They won't be the only ones. "I think the coming months will see global portfolios moderately reduce U.S. allocations, more so overseas investors than domestic U.S. investors," says Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates. If global investors do trim their U.S. holdings, there will be both a one-off hit to asset prices and a long-term reduction in upside potential because the level of future demand will be weaker. This will be mitigated if U.S. investors fill the gap. But that could be difficult. At the end of last year, U.S. households' equity holdings as a share of their total assets and total financial assets were at record highs of 29.5% and 43.5%, respectively. Exante Data's team notes that around 95% of U.S. investors' fixed income holdings are already allocated domestically. The 'anti-U.S.' pendulum may have swung too far in recent weeks. Bank of America's April global fund manager survey found that a record share of investors intend to cut their U.S. stock holdings, the U.S. corporate profit outlook is the gloomiest since 2007, and the outlook for the U.S. dollar is the most bearish since 2006. The risk premium on U.S. markets has risen, with bond yields up and the 'term premium' on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note the highest in a decade. And for good reason, given the volatility seen since President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Prices are adjusting, as they should. How long that adjustment will take and how deep it will be remains to be seen. The unmatched depth, liquidity and dynamism of U.S. financial markets are not in doubt. But in the new world order fast emerging from the Trump administration's 'America First' drive, U.S. assets' relative attractiveness certainly is. What could move markets tomorrow? * Chinese earnings, including from financial heavyweightsBank of China, HSBC, China Construction Bank and ICBC * European Central Bank Executive Board member PieroCipollone speaks * Bank of England deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks * Germany GfK consumer confidence (May) * U.S. consumer confidence (April) * Reaction to Monday's Canadian general election Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (By Jamie McGeever, editing by Bill Berkrot)
