Latest news with #EuropeanBanks
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A Trader's Guide to the Alaska Talks Between Trump and Putin
(Bloomberg) -- Traders are dusting off their geopolitical playbooks ahead of Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, looking for any signs as to how the outcome will shape the future direction of markets. In the run-up to the talks, investors have been piling into assets that could stand to benefit from either a ceasefire in Ukraine or an easing of sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian government bonds have rallied, alongside shares of companies that would benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine and European banks that still have a presence in Russia. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain For Homeless Cyclists, Bikes Bring an Escape From the Streets The meeting has also added fuel to a broader rally in European stocks, already an outperfomer this year as Germany's fiscal spending boosts the economic growth prospects for the region. 'Whatever its ostensible outcome, the Alaska meeting marks the definitive start of the concluding phase of the Ukraine war,' said Christopher Granville, a managing director at research firm TS Lombard. 'Regardless of its short-term market effects, any pacification will reinforce the fundamental European investment case.' Here's a look at various asset classes and how they're likely to be impacted by a potential resolution: Stocks Central and Eastern European equities have outperformed most global peers this year as hopes of a resolution of the war in Ukraine improves the economic outlook for the region. Benchmark indexes in Slovenia, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are among the top 10 performers among 92 gauges tracked by Bloomberg. In Western Europe, investors are focusing on themes like infrastructure and companies with exposure to the conflict. A UBS Group AG basket of stocks that would benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine, like Schneider Electric SE and Siemens Energy AG, has climbed 32% this year to trade at a record high. There's also been a slight rotation out of defense stocks, which are up over 70% this year as Europe, led by Germany, invests billions of euros to re-arm itself. A benchmark of defense companies has dropped as much as 6% from an July peak as the Alaska summit nears. According to TS Lombard's Granville, though, a potential ceasefire could also boost European defense assets as the bloc would then need to increase military spending to deter further Russian aggression. Elsewhere, Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Gama Asset Management, said Indian equities and the rupee could gain if there's any sign that Trump will move away from secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners. Bonds and Currencies Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, said a meaningful breakthrough in Alaska could trigger gains in the euro to levels not seen since before the Russian invasion in 2022. 'If there is any sense at all that a proper peace deal, or even just a temporary cessation of fighting, is possible, we could see the dollar slump and the euro, in particular, surge,' Barrow said. He sees the potential for the euro to trade between $1.20 to $1.25 for the first time since 2021, from around $1.16 currently. Ukraine's dollar bonds are also in focus. They handed investors returns of 10.6% this quarter, the second-best performance among 69 developing nations tracked by the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Total Return Index. A positive outcome of the talks would also bolster bonds and the currencies from countries such as Poland and Hungary. Commodities Crude prices are trading near a two-month low going into the meeting. Citigroup Inc. warned this week that progress toward a deal to end the war could push Brent into the low $60s from about $66 now. Meanwhile, gas prices have taken a pause in the run up to the meeting. While tangible progress on a ceasefire would be bearish for energy prices, it's unlikely that US sanctions on Russian LNG projects would be lifted imminently. The conflict has also been a key catalyst for gold's long rally, with prices doubling from late-2022 to early this year. Any signs of a ceasefire could ease haven demand. Industrial metals like copper will be sensitive to any signs that Russia is on a path to returning to trading with Western countries. What Bloomberg's Strategists Say... 'European stocks, oil, the euro and the Indian rupee are where the verdict will most cleanly be seen. While extreme outcomes are unlikely, there's enough dispersion in the consensus expectations to mean markets will react, no matter what transpires.' — Mark Cudmore, Markets Live Executive Editor. Click here for the full analysis. --With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Michael Msika, Anna Shiryaevskaya, Jack Ryan, Srinivasan Sivabalan, Peter Laca and Andras Gergely. Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Dubai's Housing Boom Is Stoking Fears of Another Crash Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan Twitter's Ex-CEO Is Moving Past His Elon Musk Drama and Starting an AI Company ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A Trader's Guide to the Alaska Talks Between Trump and Putin
(Bloomberg) -- Traders are dusting off their geopolitical playbooks ahead of Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, looking for any signs as to how the outcome will shape the future direction of markets. In the run-up to the talks, investors have been piling into assets that could stand to benefit from either a ceasefire in Ukraine or an easing of sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian government bonds have rallied, alongside shares of companies that would benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine and European banks that still have a presence in Russia. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain For Homeless Cyclists, Bikes Bring an Escape From the Streets The meeting has also added fuel to a broader rally in European stocks, already an outperfomer this year as Germany's fiscal spending boosts the economic growth prospects for the region. 'Whatever its ostensible outcome, the Alaska meeting marks the definitive start of the concluding phase of the Ukraine war,' said Christopher Granville, a managing director at research firm TS Lombard. 'Regardless of its short-term market effects, any pacification will reinforce the fundamental European investment case.' Here's a look at various asset classes and how they're likely to be impacted by a potential resolution: Stocks Central and Eastern European equities have outperformed most global peers this year as hopes of a resolution of the war in Ukraine improves the economic outlook for the region. Benchmark indexes in Slovenia, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are among the top 10 performers among 92 gauges tracked by Bloomberg. In Western Europe, investors are focusing on themes like infrastructure and companies with exposure to the conflict. A UBS Group AG basket of stocks that would benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine, like Schneider Electric SE and Siemens Energy AG, has climbed 32% this year to trade at a record high. There's also been a slight rotation out of defense stocks, which are up over 70% this year as Europe, led by Germany, invests billions of euros to re-arm itself. A benchmark of defense companies has dropped as much as 6% from an July peak as the Alaska summit nears. According to TS Lombard's Granville, though, a potential ceasefire could also boost European defense assets as the bloc would then need to increase military spending to deter further Russian aggression. Elsewhere, Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Gama Asset Management, said Indian equities and the rupee could gain if there's any sign that Trump will move away from secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners. Bonds and Currencies Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, said a meaningful breakthrough in Alaska could trigger gains in the euro to levels not seen since before the Russian invasion in 2022. 'If there is any sense at all that a proper peace deal, or even just a temporary cessation of fighting, is possible, we could see the dollar slump and the euro, in particular, surge,' Barrow said. He sees the potential for the euro to trade between $1.20 to $1.25 for the first time since 2021, from around $1.16 currently. Ukraine's dollar bonds are also in focus. They handed investors returns of 10.6% this quarter, the second-best performance among 69 developing nations tracked by the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Total Return Index. A positive outcome of the talks would also bolster bonds and the currencies from countries such as Poland and Hungary. Commodities Crude prices are trading near a two-month low going into the meeting. Citigroup Inc. warned this week that progress toward a deal to end the war could push Brent into the low $60s from about $66 now. Meanwhile, gas prices have taken a pause in the run up to the meeting. While tangible progress on a ceasefire would be bearish for energy prices, it's unlikely that US sanctions on Russian LNG projects would be lifted imminently. The conflict has also been a key catalyst for gold's long rally, with prices doubling from late-2022 to early this year. Any signs of a ceasefire could ease haven demand. Industrial metals like copper will be sensitive to any signs that Russia is on a path to returning to trading with Western countries. What Bloomberg's Strategists Say... 'European stocks, oil, the euro and the Indian rupee are where the verdict will most cleanly be seen. While extreme outcomes are unlikely, there's enough dispersion in the consensus expectations to mean markets will react, no matter what transpires.' — Mark Cudmore, Markets Live Executive Editor. Click here for the full analysis. --With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Michael Msika, Anna Shiryaevskaya, Jack Ryan, Srinivasan Sivabalan, Peter Laca and Andras Gergely. Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Dubai's Housing Boom Is Stoking Fears of Another Crash Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan Twitter's Ex-CEO Is Moving Past His Elon Musk Drama and Starting an AI Company ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
A Trader's Guide to the Alaska Talks Between Trump and Putin
Traders are dusting off their geopolitical playbooks ahead of Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, looking for any signs as to how the outcome will shape the future direction of markets. In the run-up to the talks, investors have been piling into assets that could stand to benefit from either a ceasefire in Ukraine or an easing of sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian government bonds have rallied, alongside shares of companies that would benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine and European banks that still have a presence in Russia.
South China Morning Post
13-08-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
PLA ‘warns off' US ship near Scarborough Shoal, China property woes: SCMP daily highlights
Catch up on some of SCMP's biggest China stories of the day. If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing A US destroyer has entered disputed waters in the South China Sea, less than two days after an apparent collision involving a Chinese coastguard vessel and a PLA Navy ship while the former was pursuing a Philippine coastguard vessel in the area. Chinese scientists have boosted the speed of new hybrid crop development fivefold with a combined strategy of 'robot-friendly' gene editing and artificial intelligence-driven robotics. Illustration: Reuters China decided on Wednesday to sanction two European banks as a countermeasure against previous financial sanctions from the 27-member bloc.
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
European Banks' First-Half Stock Gains Are Biggest This Century
(Bloomberg) -- European bank stocks just completed their strongest first-half since 1997, and in doing so extended what has been a golden run for the sector. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Philadelphia Transit System Votes to Cut Service by 45%, Hike Fares Squeezed by Crowds, the Roads of Central Park Are Being Reimagined Sao Paulo Pushes Out Favela Residents, Drug Users to Revive Its City Center Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer The Stoxx 600 Banks Index rose 29% in the six months through June 30, the top-performing subgroup in Europe, as investors piled into lenders for their strong returns and resilient earnings. An increase in deal-making added more fuel to the fire, particularly in Italy. Among the main highlights of a stellar first half, Banco Santander SA's advance pushed it past UBS Group AG to become continental Europe's most valuable lender, while Commerzbank AG's value appreciated so much that UniCredit SpA doesn't see it as an attractive deal target. Looking ahead, some analysts are bullish about the sector's ability to ride the crest of a wave despite macroneconomic uncertainty and trade-related risks. KBW's Andrew Stimpson says the prospect of continued outperformance is founded on a much improved earnings profile and valuation multiples that remain below long-term norms. Here are five charts that illustrate a historic first half for European banks: Societe Generale Leads Gains Societe Generale SA has surged 79% since the start of the year and is trading near its 2017-high as Chief Executive Officer Slawomir Krupa's turnaround plan for the French bank gains traction. Since taking office two years ago, he has focused on exiting non-core businesses, boosting the balance sheet, lifting profitability targets and shareholder payouts. Banco Santander analysts have SocGen as their preferred French bank, citing its potential to surprise on the upside, helped by cost-cutting efforts, they said in June. Commerzbank Surpasses €30 Billion Also among top-performing bank stocks this year is German lender Commerzbank, whose market capitalization surpassed €30 billion ($35.3 billion) for the first time in May. Its multi-year rally has been fueled by earnings strength and takeover interest. Its share price has more than doubled since UniCredit took a stake in September and raised the possibility of a full-blown merger. Still, that move was effectively ruled out by the Italian lender's Chief Executive Officer Andrea Orcel in June, saying such a move would not add value given the stock's rally. Spanish Banks Keep Shining Spanish lenders, which had rallied on the back of higher interest rates, have sustained gains through the European Central Bank's cutting cycle on robust earnings, fee-generating businesses and M&A deals. Banco Santander, which has jumped 57% since the start of the year, has surpassed UBS as the biggest bank in continental Europe by market value. Elsewhere, BBVA SA plans to stick with its bid for smaller peer Banco Sabadell SA, after the Spanish government delayed a potential merger. Deutsche Bank's German Boost Deutsche Bank AG shares have climbed 51% so far this year and are trading around 2015 levels, as the German lender has boosted payouts to shareholders and is set to benefit from the impact of massive government fiscal stimulus in its home country. The firm has made increasing payouts a key element of its strategy as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to lift the share price. Still, concerns over a recent capital ratio disclosure pressured the stock on Monday. Italian Banks Are All About M&A Italian lenders are currently in a deal wave that is set to reshape the country's finance industry. After cleaning up their balance sheets, some firms are turning their sights on takeovers again as surging profits from higher interest rates lifted share prices. UniCredit is among Europe's best performers this year, up 48% as it pursues Italian peer Banco BPM SpA while doubling its stake in a Greek lender. Its market capitalization exceeded that of rival Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in May to make it Italy's largest bank by that metric. Peers Mediobanca SpA and Banca Generali SpA have recently hit fresh record highs. --With assistance from Julien Ponthus. America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
