14 hours ago
Updated Carbon Law Reveals: Emissions Must Drop 12% Per Year
The world is rapidly running out of time to stop catastrophic climate impacts. According to an investigation by Swedish NGO, Klimatkollen, carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 for a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. That is equivalent to emission reductions of about 12 % t per year. This investigation, in collaboration with the Exponential Roadmap Initiative, seeks to answer what pace of emission cuts is needed to meet Paris Agreement targets starting in 2025.
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A recent investigation by Swedish NGO, Klimatkollen, calculated that, starting in 2025, the world must halve emissions every five years. This is a pace equivalent to emission cuts of around 12% per year.
But even if the world manages to adhere to the new 12% a year reduction pace, the future is not a safe place. The calculation implies only a 50/50 chance of limiting global warming to about 1.5°C, based on a global carbon budget of 305 billion tons of CO₂, as well as 5.5 billion tons of CO₂ in remaining residual emissions by 2050 that can be offset by carbon capture and storage. And the calculation does not take into account one of the core principles in the Paris Agreement: that those with more responsibility and capability should go faster.
Frida Berry Eklund, co-founder of Klimatkollen and EU Climate Pact Ambassador, states: 'Citizens have a right to know what science-based emission cuts in line with 1.5°C means in practice, to be able to hold decision makers in business and governments to account. We need to focus on what's needed, not what's politically possible, to give our children a fighting chance of survival."
Carbon Law is a scientifically based framework presented by Professor Johan Rockström, Johan Falk, and Owen Gaffney in 2017, inspired by Moore's law of computer development, which provides the rule of thumb – halving emissions every decade from 2020 onwards. However, we are now five years behind schedule as global emissions continue to rise, hence the new calculations.
The updated Carbon Law calculations show what is required at the global level to limit global warming to 1.5 C: a halving of emissions every five years starting 2025. But the rule of thumb annual emission cuts of 12% , can also be a guiding light for citizens to hold countries, companies, and organizations to account.
Owen Gaffney, co-founder of the Exponential Roadmap Initiative says: 'The remaining carbon dioxide budget for 1.5°C is currently being consumed at a rate of 1% every month. To avoid critical tipping points in the climate systems, emissions must be reduced as quickly as possible while also avoiding economic collapse. That we reached 1.5°C last year is a clear signal that we must intensify our efforts to protect the Earth's climate system.'
It is clear that the world is rapidly running out of time to stop catastrophic climate impacts. But pushing for emission cuts of 12% annually presents a science-aligned rule of thumb for citizens everywhere to hold decision makers to account. We need deep emission reductions—now.
Core Concept of the Carbon Law:
1. Halve global CO₂ emissions every decade from 2020 onward (according to the updated calculations this now means halving every five years from 2025)
2. Double carbon removal technologies and capacity every decade
3. Reach net-zero emissions by around 2050
According to Frida Berry Eklund, "The strength of the 12% emission cuts per year number is that it gives citizens, companies and countries, a clear science-aligned rule of thumb to compare climate action to. However, the rule of thumb does not take into account the core principle of the Paris Agreement, that those with high historical emissions and ability to transition need to cut emissions faster."
With another recent study stating that 89 % of the global population is in favor of stronger climate policies and the Actuaries Climate Risk Index warning of global economic collapse if we abstain from reducing the emissions, the green light cannot be any greener for the politicians to act.
