Latest news with #ExportNZ
Newsroom
7 days ago
- Business
- Newsroom
Ripple effects of Trump tariffs leave gloomy trade outlook
The global economic uncertainty caused by Donald Trump's tariffs will likely reduce global demand for New Zealand exports and make the coalition's goal of doubling exports even more challenging, the Reserve Bank's chief economist says. However, the fall in export demand is likely to be considerably smaller than that seen following the 2008 global financial crisis, Paul Conway says. Speaking at an Export NZ event on Thursday, Conway said New Zealand was deeply influenced by global developments, meaning 'even if tariffs don't hit us that hard directly, we will feel the ripple effects as they work through the global economy'. The global economy had been dealing with more frequent and varied shocks since the early 2000s, with uncertainty on the rise and economic tools increasingly used for political and strategic ends. 'It makes the rules of the game less clear. It makes the global economy more difficult to navigate, with spillover effects into the domestic economy.' The direct impact on New Zealand would be softened by the fact that 'we're not actually as export driven as we like to think we are', with the export share of GDP having fallen for decades, along with the fact that tourism exports were intrinsically difficult to tariff. Conway said meat, wine, and precision instruments like medical devices would be among the most directly affected export sectors. The US bought little of the types of dairy products exported by New Zealand, meaning the Trump tariffs would have a minimal impact on global dairy prices. US demand in global markets was stronger for the goods that New Zealand imported, meaning there was likely to be greater price reductions for imports than exports. The tariffs would also reshape global trade flows as buyers and sellers adjusted, with American buyers likely to look for goods from countries subject to lower tariffs in addition to locally made products. While Chinese exports to the US had dropped by roughly 15 percent in the year to June, the country's exports had held steady overall as shipments were redirected to the European Union, Southeast Asia and other countries. New Zealand's technology sector could benefit from reduced US demand for Chinese products, while the same could be true for meat exporters if a 50 percent tariff on Brazillian imports into the US went ahead as planned. With our current 10 percent tariff no higher than any other country, Conway said we were on the right side of global shifts in trade flows. However, the broader uncertainty caused by Trump's tariffs would slow the New Zealand economy down, with household spending and business investment heavily affected by the lack of confidence about what the future had in store. 'Why invest in new machinery if you're unsure about future demand? Why take on debt when you're unsure how interest rates or prices might move given increased macroeconomic volatility? It's a similar story with households.' Overall, there was likely to be a negative demand shock that reduced medium-term inflation pressures in New Zealand – a contrast to the US, where the tariffs were expected to add to inflation. While the effects would not be comparable to the GFC – another global shock with its epicentre in the US – there would be a material slowdown in trading partner growth. Asked how the gloomy trade outlook would affect the coalition Government's goal of doubling exports by 2034, Conway said he got in trouble for commenting too much on current government policy but described it as 'an ambitious target' and 'challenging'. 'Full power to the Government, and to the businesses in behind that; actually, I think it's sort of up to businesses. The Government creates the incentives, and it's businesses that need to do that.' Trade in services (outside of tourism) was the bright spot for New Zealand exports, which made sense given the country's remoteness and the weightless nature of trading products via digital means. The longer levels of uncertainty remained high, the more pronounced the drag on trade and economic growth would be, Conway said. 'A short spike in uncertainty isn't that big a deal, even if it goes extremely high, but if it goes up and sort of stays there, that can sort of suck down growth. 'I'm not sure that we're looking into that, [but] I do think there will be a sigh of relief when the tariff schedule of the US does remain constant. It's not just the fact of tariffs, but the fact of them changing all the time, which is contributing to uncertainty.'
Scoop
22-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
NZ-UAE Trade Deal A Boost To Export And Investment
ExportNZ welcomes news of the United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill passing into law last night, saying it marks the next step forward in seeing the Agreement between New Zealand and UAE provide a boost to exporters. Executive Director Joshua Tan says recent engagements with exporters nationwide proves there is plenty of interest from businesses to explore opportunities in the UAE. "The UAE is a fast-moving, high-value market with demand for exactly the kinds of quality, sustainable, and trusted products and services New Zealand is known for. "We not only see opportunities for exporting products and services to the UAE, but also fostering investment opportunities in New Zealand. We are excited about the potential for growth in the New Zealand-Emirati economic relationship. "ExportNZ acknowledges the hard work of our government officials and the Minister for Trade & Investment for moving quickly to conclude and pass this high-quality agreement. We look forward to notification of when the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement will come into force for exporters to begin leveraging."
NZ Herald
17-07-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
New Zealand reaches deal with Canada in long-running dairy trade dispute
New Zealand initiated formal dispute settlement proceedings over restricted access to the Canadian market for dairy exports under the CPTPP in 2022. A dispute panel found in New Zealand's favour; however, Canada failed to fully comply with the panel's ruling. New Zealand threatened further action last year, including the imposition of retaliatory tariffs against Canadian exporters. 'The Government is pleased that this dispute has now been settled, and New Zealand exporters are guaranteed better access to the Canadian market,' McClay said. Under the agreement, Canada has committed to changing the way it administers its dairy quotas under CPTPP, including faster and more efficient access to quotas for New Zealand exporters, reallocation of underused quotas, and penalties for importers who misuse quotas. 'The CPTPP is a world-leading agreement that unlocks significant opportunities for all parties, but its obligations must be upheld. Today's agreement reinforces support for the rules-based trading system,' McClay said. He added that Canada was a long-standing friend and trading partner of this country and 'constructive engagement' had brought about a resolution. Last year, Act Party trade spokeswoman Dr Parmjeet Parmar called the dispute a 'betrayal of our friendship'. She said if Canada could not comply with the CPTPP, it should be 'booted out of the deal'. ExportNZ has welcomed the deal, saying it will unlock higher export value for Kiwi business. Executive director Josh Tan said the outcome was a win for New Zealand dairy exporters, and a win for the rules-based trading system. 'It's essential that our trade agreements function as they were agreed to – particularly in the current global trade context. Likewise, our trade partners should ensure they are playing by the rules.' Canada was a valuable trading partner for New Zealand, Tan said. -RNZ
Scoop
17-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Canada-NZ Dairy Dispute: A Win For Exporters
ExportNZ is pleased to see a years-long dairy dispute between Canada and New Zealand resolved, unlocking higher export value for Kiwi business. Executive Director Josh Tan says the outcome is a win for New Zealand dairy exporters, and a win for the rules-based trading system. "It's essential that our trade agreements function as they were agreed to - particularly in the current global trade context. Likewise, our trade partners should ensure they are playing by the rules. "Canada remains a valuable trade partner to New Zealand. In agreeing to meet its obligations under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Canada has guaranteed better market access for Kiwi exporters and we commend them for honouring this agreed outcome. "ExportNZ acknowledges the Minister for Trade and Investment and our New Zealand officials, for their persistent effort to reach the right outcome under the CPTPP agreement."
NZ Herald
07-07-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Finalists announced for Hawke's Bay Export Awards 2025
The Ziwi pet food team after the company was named Hawke's Bay Exporter of the Year at the 2024 awards ceremony. In a time of substantial global volatility, awards organisers say there's no better time to commend and recognise Hawke's Bay's exporters for their world-class products. ExportNZ said it is proud to recognise exporters who continue to innovate and succeed globally after the finalists for this year's ExportNZ ASB Hawke's Bay
