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IOL News
09-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
India-Pakistan escalating tension could reverberate globally, affecting South Africa
Experts believe there are major economic implications globally and for South Africa as tensions continue to grow between India and Pakistan. Image: FAROOQ NAEEM / AFP Analysts are warning that the economic ramifications of rising military tensions between India and Pakistan could extend far beyond South Asia, impacting nations like South Africa that count India among their top trading partners. Earlier this week, India's Ministry of Defence announced the launch of Operation Sindoor, targeting nine alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This military action was framed by Indian authorities as a direct response to the tragic deaths of 26 civilians in Pahalgam, Kashmir, attributed to alleged terrorist attacks on 22 April. In retaliation, the Indian military has reported increased firing from Pakistan on its northern and western borders. Given the deep interdependencies forged through trade and partnerships, particularly within BRICS—a coalition that includes both countries—these escalating tensions are raising eyebrows among economic experts in South Africa. According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India imported an impressive $10.54 billion's worth of goods from South Africa in 2023-24 alone, with significant commodities such as precious stones and mineral fuels leading the charge. Professor Emeritus of International Law at Unisa, André Thomashausen, said that India and Pakistan, after the defeat of Pakistan in the 1971 border war, signed the Shimla Treaty to manage their dispute about the autonomy for the Kashmir and Jammu territories. 'The treaty is now revoked, and the dependence of Pakistan on the waters of the Indus River is escalating the conflict, after India decided to constrain the water flows to Pakistan. China and Russia are trying to prevent an all-out war which could turn nuclear, given the imbalance of military strength,' he said. Thomashausen added that mediation was made difficult whilst the BJP party led by Prime Minister Modi needed to win the forthcoming elections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where anti-Pakistan sentiments fetch the most votes. 'If mediation fails, further severe blows to the world economy can be expected, with countries exporting to India, like South Africa, suffering most.' University of KwaZulu-Natal academic and political analyst Siyabonga Ntombela said that escalating tensions between India and Pakistan could have significant global implications. 'Both nations are nuclear powers; if not resolved, we might have spillovers like in the Gaza-Israel war. A deterioration in their relations risks regional instability in South Asia, which could disrupt trade routes and global supply chains,' he said. Ntombela added that for BRICS, such conflict could strain unity within the bloc and divert focus from economic cooperation to security concerns. 'Therefore, South Africa, as a BRICS member, might face diplomatic pressure to take a stance or mediate. Also, South Africa's economic and political ties with India could be affected if the situation escalates, especially in trade and multilateral engagements.' UKZN political science lecturer Zakhele Ndlovu said that this was a very concerning and worrying development. 'One hopes it does not spiral out of control. The world is already witnessing two major conflicts: the war between Russia and Ukraine and then the conflict in the Middle East. One hopes cooler heads will prevail. BRICS can't afford to have two of its members involved in wars.' Ndlovu added that the concerning part is that India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, and any escalation risks putting the whole world in danger. 'India and Pakistan have fought two or three wars over the contested region of Kashmir. Obviously, this is going to have an adverse effect on the global economy.' Professor Waldo Krugell, economist at North-West University, said that in practical terms we trade with India but it is a smaller part of our trade mix and unlikely to be disrupted by conflict in Kashmir. 'In 2023 exports to India amounted to $10.6bn, mostly gold and coal briquettes with some manganese, scrap iron, apples and pears. Our imports were $7.64bn, mostly refined petroleum, cars, trucks, packaged medicine, cell phones and rice,' Krugell said. 'Usually, conflict of any kind strengthens the dollar, but I don't think these economies are that integrated into global markets that it would matter much. Things could escalate if China gets involved, but it is also unlikely.' BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
08-05-2025
- Politics
- IOL News
Dozens killed as India, Pakistan clash in worst violence in decades
Locals stand on the debris of destroyed structures at the Government Health and Educational complex in Muridke about 30 kilometres from Lahore, on May 7, 2025, after Indian strikes. The death toll from Indian strikes on Pakistan has increased to eight, the country's military spokesman said on May 7, as India fired missiles at Pakistani territory and Islamabad vowed to "settle the score". Image: FAROOQ NAEEM / AFP India and Pakistan exchanged heavy artillery fire along their contested frontier on Wednesday after New Delhi launched deadly missile strikes on its arch-rival, in the worst violence between the nuclear-armed neighbours in two decades. At least 38 deaths were reported, with Islamabad saying 26 civilians were killed by the Indian strikes and firing along the border, and New Delhi adding at least 12 dead from Pakistani shelling. The fighting came two weeks after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for backing an attack on the Indian-run side of disputed Kashmir, which Pakistan denied. The South Asian neighbours have fought multiple wars over the divided territory since they were carved out of the subcontinent at the end of British rule in 1947. The Indian army said "justice is served", reporting nine "terrorist camps" had been destroyed, with New Delhi adding that its actions "have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature". Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif accused Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of launching the strikes to "shore up" his domestic popularity, adding that Islamabad "won't take long to settle the score". Pakistan military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said five Indian jets had been downed across the border overnight. An Indian senior security source, who asked not to be named, said three of its fighter jets had crashed on home territory. The largest Indian strike was on an Islamic seminary near the Punjabi city of Bahawalpur, killing 13 people according to the Pakistan military. A government health and education complex in Muridke, 30 kilometres from Lahore, was blown apart, along with a mosque in Muzaffarabad - the main city of Pakistan-administered Kashmir - killing its caretaker. Four children were among those killed in Wednesday's attacks, according to the Pakistan military. Pakistan also said a hydropower plant in Kashmir was targeted by India, damaging a dam structure, after India threatened to stop the flow of water on its side of the border. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. 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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Pakistan had earlier warned that tampering with the rivers that flow into its territory would be an "act of war". India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the overnight operation was New Delhi's "right to respond" following the attack on tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir last month. Pakistan had denied any involvement in the Pahalgam assault and called for an independent probe. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labelled India's strikes a "heinous act of aggression" that would "not go unpunished" and his National Security Committee called on the international community to hold India "accountable". In Muzaffarabad, United Nations military observers arrived to inspect a mosque that Islamabad said was struck by India. "There were terrible sounds during the night, there was panic among everyone," said Muhammad Salman, who lives close to the mosque. "We are moving to a safer place... we are homeless now," added 24-year-old Tariq Mir who was hit in the leg by shrapnel. Residents collected damaged copies of the Koran from among concrete, wood, and iron debris scattered across the grounds. In Indian-held Kashmir, residents fled in panic from the Pakistan shelling. "There was firing from Pakistan, which damaged the houses and injured many," said Wasim Ahmed, 29, from Salamabad village. "They were taken to hospitals in Uri and Baramulla towns. There has been extensive damage here, everything is destroyed, and people are fleeing the area." India had been widely expected to respond militarily to the Pahalgam attack on April 22 that killed 26 people, mainly Hindu men, which it blamed on Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, a UN-designated terrorist organisation. The two nations have traded days of threats and tit-for-tat diplomatic measures, while Pakistan has conducted two missile tests. The Indian army has reported nightly gunfire along the heaviliy militarised Line of Control that separates the region since April 24. "Escalation between India and Pakistan has already reached a larger scale than during the last major crisis in 2019, with potentially dire consequences," International Crisis Group analyst Praveen Donthi said. Diplomats have piled pressure on leaders to step back. "The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan," the spokesman for UN chief Antonio Guterres, Stephane Dujarric, said in a statement. US President Donald Trump told reporters in Washington he hoped that the fighting "ends very quickly". Concern poured in, including from China - a mutual neighbour of both nations - as well as from the EU, Britain, France, Russia, Germany and Turkey, while airlines have cancelled, diverted or rerouted flights. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was expected in New Delhi on Wednesday, two days after a visit to Islamabad, as Tehran seeks to mediate. Rebels in Indian-administered Kashmir have waged an insurgency since 1989, seeking independence or a merger with Pakistan. India regularly blames its neighbour for backing armed groups fighting its forces in Kashmir, a charge that Islamabad denies. Cape Times
