Latest news with #FPIs'
Mint
27-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Bull vs bear: Can bulls continue to rule Indian stock market despite FPI selling? These 5 factors might come to rescue
It appears that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who were aggressively buying Indian equities in April and early May in the cash segment, are now turning cautious and potentially selling at higher levels. FPIs' buying of Indian equities stood at a meagre ₹ 135.98 crore on May 26, even as the Nifty 50 closed with a healthy gain of 0.60 per cent. They are still net buyers of Indian equities worth nearly ₹ 12,328 crore in the cash segment this month. However, the trend over the last several sessions indicates that the momentum is losing steam. The Indian stock market's stretched valuation and mixed Q4 results could be the key factors behind FPI selling at higher levels. However, the dollar's weakness seems to have capped the foreign capital outflow. As the Indian stock market navigates a plethora of uncertainties related to US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, and global economic growth, it seems difficult to predict whether FPIs will continue pouring money into the Indian stock market in the short term. Will the Indian stock market suffer a deep crash in case of an FPI selling? While FPI selling could weigh on Indian stock market sentiment, it is unlikely that the domestic market will see a deep crash. This is because of the bright growth outlook of the Indian economy. Five key factors that may keep the Indian stock market resilient in FY26 amid FPI selloff The monsoon is expected to remain above normal this season. Monsoon winds hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days before the normal date of 1 June. A healthy monsoon is not only positive for the agriculture sector, which contributes about 18 per cent to India's economy, it also augurs well for allied sectors, such as rural consumption, FMCG and automobiles. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced on Friday, May 23, that it will pay ₹ 2.69 lakh crore as a dividend to the central government for FY25. This is the highest-ever surplus that the central bank will pay to the government. RBI's dividend will help the government maintain its fiscal deficit, which will build momentum for economic growth, strengthen the currency, and possibly fetch ratings upgrades and more foreign investments. All this will augur well for the stock market. "RBI's bumper dividend payment to the government, exceeding the budget estimates, will help contain the fiscal deficit target for FY26 at 4.4 per cent. This, in turn, can sustain the low inflation and declining interest rate trend, which will continue to support the equity market," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. Experts say the benefits of income tax relief announced in the Budget 2025 will be visible after the second half of this fiscal year. The increase in disposable income could mean more spending on goods and services. Increased consumption and demand could give a significant boost to the Indian economy and underpin stock market sentiment. India's retail inflation touched a six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April, marking a third consecutive month of sub-4 per cent print. Retail inflation is expected to remain at comfortable levels amid easing geopolitical concerns and a healthy monsoon. On the other hand, the Indian economy is expected to keep growing at a healthy pace. Despite global chaos, the Indian economy may grow slightly above 6 per cent in FY26. Morgan Stanley upgraded its forecast for the Indian economy to 6.2 per cent year-on-year for FY26, up from 6.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent for FY27, up from 6.3 per cent. Meanwhile, NITI Aayog Chief Executive Officer (CEO) BVR Subrahmanyam said India has overtaken Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. He further said that in another two to three years, India may surpass Germany and become the third-largest economy in the world. As of May 26, the total number of investors registered with the BSE stood at nearly 21.68 crore, up about 25 per cent year-on-year. A strong influx of retail investors has been a key reason that has helped the domestic market avoid any major crash during periods of heavy foreign capital outflow. "New retail investors continue to pour into the domestic markets. Last week also over six lakh new investors entered the capital markets for the first time. Thus, we firmly believe that the outlook for the Indian equity markets remains optimistic," said G Chokkalingam, Founder & Head of Research, Equinomics Research Private Limited. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Mint
19-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
FPI assets top $800 billion after 4 months as markets rebound on eased trade worries
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) assets under management (AUM) have crossed the $800 billion mark for the first time in four months, driven by renewed inflows and a rise in the value of their holdings. The rise in assets follows a strong rebound in Indian markets last month, aided by easing global trade concerns. FPI assets rose to $811 billion as of 30 April, up from $773 billion on 15 April. The surge came as FPIs turned net buyers of Indian equities for the first time in seven months. The rally was supported by a weaker dollar and optimism around the Indian economy's potential to outperform amid signs of easing trade tensions—particularly the US nearing deals with India and other key partners. At its lowest point, FPI AUM had dropped to a 15-month low of $714 billion on 28 February—its weakest level since November 2023—due to persistent outflows amid fears stoked by US President Donald Trump's tariff proposals. However, sentiment reversed by mid-April after the US paused its plan to hike tariffs on trading partners by 9 April. This boosted confidence among global investors, who responded with strong buying interest in Indian stocks. Also read: No, FPI selling is not an exodus. But then why is it hurting so bad? Nifty rebounds sharply With FPIs turning buyers, the benchmark Nifty rebounded 12% from a 10-month low of 21,743.65 on 7 April to 24,334.20 by month-end. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to provide steady support, although at more modest levels. DII cash market buying stood at ₹2,593 crore in the second half of April, compared with FPIs' net investment of ₹37,546 crore. Retail and high net worth (HNI) investors also contributed significantly to the rally, according to Sudhir Joshi, consultant at Khambatta Securities. Monthly net figures for retail/HNI participation will be available later via NSE's Market Pulse. Also read: Mint Primer | Moody's Blues: What US' credit rating downgrade means for market Retail/HNI investors purchased shares worth ₹1.25 trillion in FY25 so far—the second-highest ever, after the record ₹1.65 trillion in FY22. As of FY25-end, NSE held a 94% share in the equity cash market segment. FPI AUM had previously peaked at $930 billion as of 30 September 2024, helping lift markets to an all-time high of 26,277.35. However, the tide turned as US bond yields and the dollar strengthened on fears of rising inflation and a renewed global tariff war if Trump returns to office in November. Markets corrected sharply through 7 April, with the Nifty falling 17% to 21,743.65. The tide turned again on 9 April when the Trump administration suspended tariff hikes for three months, raising hopes of near-term trade agreements. Mixed market outlook Tariff-related concerns may have eased, but fresh geopolitical tensions emerged this month after India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day air conflict that ended on 10 May. The escalation followed the killing of 26 tourists in Kashmir last month by Pakistan-backed terrorists. Despite the flare-up, FPIs continued to buy Indian equities, buoyed by expectations that the situation would not spiral into a full-scale war. Also read: Indian defence firms skyrocket after Pakistan skirmish With a ceasefire agreement in the offing, and other positives like earnings growth recovery, low inflation, and easing interest rate cycle, FPI flows could "gather pace " in the coming months, according to Nitin Jain, CEO & CIO, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Singapore. He added that markets could test their all time high of 26277.35 by the second half of next year, given the positive factors, while warning bets would be "off the table" if geopolitical issues "flare up." A Balasubramanian, MD & CEO, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, said he expected markets to test their record high in "quick time" with abatement of geopolitical tensions and global tariff uncertainty, and better than estimated earnings. "Doubting Thomases still exist and that's another reason that markets could surprise on the upside, led by robust smart money inflows," said Balasubramanian. However, others like Rohit Srivastava, founder of analytics firm Indiacharts, said a 'pause in the latest round of recovery is likely before gauging market direction." He forecasts a medium-term range of 24,000–25,000. Also read: India's FPI reforms open doors, but will foreign capital follow? Options data shows more call writing than puts, indicating upside resistance. Traders expect the Nifty to remain in a range of 24,640–25,360 in the near term, with a mild downward bias. Weekly Nifty options data shows more calls sold than puts, which implies upside pressure. Based on this data, the market is likely to remain in the range of 24,640- 25,360, with an immediate downside bias.
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Business Standard
18-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
FPIs invest ₹18,620 crore in May on global cues, domestic strength
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing ₹18,620 crore so far this month, driven by a combination of global tailwinds and improving domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of ₹4,223 crore in April, marking the first inflow in three months, data with the depositories showed. Prior to this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had pulled out ₹3,973 crore in March, ₹34,574 crore in February, and a substantial Rs 78,027 crore in January. FPIs are likely to continue their buying interest in India, and therefore, large caps will be resilient, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said. According to the data from the depositories, foreign portfolio investors made a net investment of Rs 18,620 crore in equities this month (till May 16). The total outflow stood at Rs 93,731 crore in 2025 so far. India's equity markets witnessed a sharp resurgence in FPI activity in April. The sustained buying spree that began in mid-April continued in the current month, reflecting renewed investor confidence. "A key catalyst was the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which eased regional tensions and lifted investor sentiment," Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director - Manager Research, Morningstar Investment, said. The global risk appetite also improved after a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, prompting foreign investors to reallocate capital toward emerging markets, with India being a key beneficiary, he added. "With the global trade scenario improving after the pause in trade war between the US and China and the end of the India-Pakistan conflict, the investment scenario has improved," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said. On the domestic front, India's strong growth outlook, accommodative monetary policy, and robust corporate earnings expectations supported the FPIs' interest. On the other hand, FPIs withdrew Rs 6,748 crore from the debt general limit and invested Rs 1,193 crore in debt voluntary retention during the period under review. Last week, Sebi released the consultation paper proposing to grant certain waivers/relaxations to FPIs investing in the Indian government bonds through the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) and Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to provide momentum to the drying bond market. This move comes at a critical time, as foreign investors continue to adopt a cautious outlook towards Indian bond markets, especially after the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the global bond indices, Manoj Purohit, Partner & Leader, Financial Services Tax, Tax & Regulatory Services, BDO India, said.
Time of India
18-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
FPIs pump Rs 18,620 cr in equities in May on global tailwinds, improving domestic fundamentals
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing Rs 18,620 crore so far this month, driven by a combination of global tailwinds and improving domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, marking the first inflow in three months, data with the depositories showed. Prior to this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had pulled out Rs 3,973 crore in March, Rs 34,574 crore in February, and a substantial Rs 78,027 crore in January. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like If You Eat Ginger Everyday for 1 Month This is What Happens Tips and Tricks Undo FPIs are likely to continue their buying interest in India, and therefore, large caps will be resilient, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said. According to the data from the depositories, foreign portfolio investors made a net investment of Rs 18,620 crore in equities this month (till May 16). The total outflow stood at Rs 93,731 crore in 2025 so far. India's equity markets witnessed a sharp resurgence in FPI activity in April. The sustained buying spree that began in mid-April continued in the current month, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Live Events "A key catalyst was the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which eased regional tensions and lifted investor sentiment," Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director - Manager Research, Morningstar Investment, said. The global risk appetite also improved after a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, prompting foreign investors to reallocate capital toward emerging markets, with India being a key beneficiary, he added. "With the global trade scenario improving after the pause in trade war between the US and China and the end of the India-Pakistan conflict, the investment scenario has improved," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said. On the domestic front, India's strong growth outlook, accommodative monetary policy , and robust corporate earnings expectations supported the FPIs' interest. On the other hand, FPIs withdrew Rs 6,748 crore from the debt general limit and invested Rs 1,193 crore in debt voluntary retention during the period under review. Last week, Sebi released the consultation paper proposing to grant certain waivers/relaxations to FPIs investing in the Indian government bonds through the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) and Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to provide momentum to the drying bond market. This move comes at a critical time, as foreign investors continue to adopt a cautious outlook towards Indian bond markets, especially after the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the global bond indices, Manoj Purohit, Partner & Leader, Financial Services Tax, Tax & Regulatory Services, BDO India, said.
Mint
08-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
FPIs turn bullish on index futures amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions, but risks loom
MUMBAI : Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are showing growing confidence in India's markets, undeterred by the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. On the heels of India's air strikes across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, FPIs made a notable shift by turning net long on index futures (Nifty and Bank Nifty) for the first time in seven months. While this move signals optimism, analysts warn that any retaliatory action from Pakistan could change the market's trajectory. On Wednesday, FPIs turned net long by 458 contracts—their first net long position since 4 October, when they held 27,662 contracts, according to IndiaCharts. Read this | FPIs bet on limited Nifty movement amid simmering India-Pakistan tensions This shift in index futures follows their return as net buyers in the cash market after six months of relentless selling, during which they offloaded ₹2.85 trillion worth of Indian shares through March, NSDL data shows. The reversal suggests a partial diversion of funds from the US to other markets amid a weaker dollar and trade war uncertainties. FPIs' renewed buying has helped fuel a 12.3% rebound in the Nifty, which rose from a low of 21,743.65 on 7 April to 24,414.40 by Wednesday's close. In April alone, FPIs invested ₹3,243.03 crore in the cash market—their first net buying since October—with additional inflows of ₹7,954.17 crore in May, per NSDL data. Their buying of index futures reflects a shift in sentiment toward India after a prolonged period of bearishness in both the cash and derivatives segments. This shift comes amid ongoing global tariff tensions and India's retaliatory air strikes on Pakistan following the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam, where 26 people were killed, according to the defence ministry. "Markets haven't really priced-in any retaliatory action from Pakistan, after the Indian air strikes," highlighted Nilesh Shah, managing director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, attributing the strong institutional flows to investor optimism. But he warned that any escalation from Pakistan could negatively impact the markets. Read this | Tensions are rising on the border but FPIs aren't worried Rohit Srivastava, founder of IndiaCharts, said he would wait to see a few more sessions of FPI behaviour before concluding that there's been a "change of slant" in the cash and derivatives segments. FPIs had been building short positions in index futures since October, reaching a record high of 200,890 contracts by 24 February this year. Since then, they have been steadily closing out those bearish bets, eventually turning net long on Wednesday. Before the recent shift, FPIs held a record high long position of 130,719 contracts on 4 July last year, per IndiaCharts data, adjusted for the Nifty lot size revision to 75 shares from 25 shares effective November. Also read | Will lower tariffs lure back FPIs from other emerging markets? Srivastava noted that the Nifty is approaching a key resistance level of 24,545, representing a 61.8% retracement of its fall from a record high of 26,277.35 on 27 September 27 to the 7 April low. The index would consolidate unless it "decisively breaks" the important resistance of 24,545, according to Srivastava.
