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Yahoo
07-08-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football AMA Recap: Biggest fades, rookies to target, how to approach drafting CMC and more
Jeff Ratcliffe of FTN Fantasy joined Yahoo Fantasy Plus subscribers on Wednesday, August 6, for a fantasy football AMA on our invite-only Discord server. This is the latest exclusive benefit for Yahoo Fantasy Plus subscribers. Wondering what you missed? Don't worry, we have highlights from the session below. Make sure you don't miss out on the next expert AMA, unlock the invite-only Discord, optimized lineups, smarter waiver and trade advice with Yahoo Fantasy Plus. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] We're a few weeks into NFL training camp and this week we'll get our first big slate of preseason games. This should give us plenty of insight into who is ahead in positional battles as depth charts continue to take shape. It won't be long until the heart of fantasy football draft season at the end of the month. This recap can help you prepare with plenty of insight. Fantasy Football AMA Recap Question: Do you think rookie WR Tory Horton will be a legit part of the Seahawks' offense this season? Answer: Depends on what you mean by legit. I don't think he'll be fantasy relevant out of the gate, but there is a pathway to reps with MVS (WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling) ahead of him. He's worth monitoring in redraft, but is more of a dynasty asset right now. Question: What's your stance on where to draft Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and how will he impact fantasy rosters? Answer: It's tough to have a stance until we find out his suspension length. We initially anticipated in the range of eight games. If it's eight, that's rough. That's over half the fantasy regular season, which is a long time to eat up a bench spot or IR spot. But his legal result was less than some expected, so there's a chance the suspension is shorter. If it's six games, that's better, but four or fewer will have him moving up my board. All reports suggest he's recovered from the ACL, so he should pick right back up where he left off when he gets back on the field. Question: I'm drafting at No. 9 in a 0.5-point PPR league. Do you have 1-2 players I should be zeroing in on at that spot? Answer: No, instead I recommend using a cheat sheet you trust. That will allow you to maximize value in that spot. You could be at 1.09 and the 5th player on your board falls to you. If he does, scoop value. Worst-case scenario, you get the No. 9 player on your board if it goes chalk. Question: Does Matthew Stafford's injury potential impact any of the Rams' offensive players? Any concern that the injury could linger into the fantasy season? Answer: It could if it lasts, but all reports suggest they're just taking their time with him. However, if we still haven't made progress in the next two weeks, it's fair to move Puka Nacua and Davante Adams slightly down in rankings. Question: I'm interested in drafting Bears WR DJ Moore but am worried about last season. Do you think Ben Johnson will help Caleb Williams enough to make Moore a legit target? Answer: He's set up to be the top target in what should be an improved offense. Last year was a mess for the Bears, and it started with the coaches. They no longer have that problem. Moore is solid where he's going in drafts as a back-end WR2. Question: I kind of want to avoid Christian McCaffrey in drafts but am worried it's going to bite me. Is CMC worth drafting or does it depend on the spot you can get him at? Answer: He's definitely worth the risk in the first round of 1QB leagues, but I can't blame you after last year. In these types of situations, I advise people to consider their own risk tolerance. If the reward isn't worth the risk for you, it's okay to not take the player. But I view him as a top-10 option who will be taken somewhere in the middle to the back half of the first round in 1QB leagues. Question: When you are drafting is there a specific player(s) from the 8th pick where you see good value in the first and second rounds? Answer: I prefer to not zero in on specific players. My aim is to set my draft board up correctly, so that I can scoop the top player on my board in the first round. The worst player would be my No. 8 guy (which is Giants WR Malik Nabers right now). But it could be one of my top 7 if they fall. But let's say I got Nabers. In the second round, I will go after the top RB on my board to start a Hero RB build. Question: Who are your biggest fades this draft season? Answer: Oh man. I have a ton. Middle Rounds: Isiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson Jr., Chris Olave, Jakobi Meyers, Deebo Samuel Sr., Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin, Khalil Shakir, Tyler Warren. Late rounds: Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, Najee Harris, Jerome Ford, Austin Ekeler, Michael Pittman Jr., Cooper Kupp, Josh Downs, Rashid Shaheed, Christian Kirk, Rashod Bateman. There are more, but those are the big ones. Question: Is there a rookie being slept on right now that will have a fantasy impact in the first few weeks of the regular season? Answer: I do think Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue and Browns RB Dylan Sampson are interesting late-round targets. In deeper leagues, Texans RB Woody Marks is an appealing dart. But I don't think any of them pop right away. Question: What player are you lowest on compared to current ADP? Answer: I have to actually look at ADP, but I know Harrison is going WR14 in best ball. I have him at WR19. I'm also lower on Hampton. Have him RB16. His ADP has shot up to RB12, which is very aggressive. Question: Hey Jeff, what do you make of the Jaguars backfield? There's a lot of hype surrounding Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten will be in the mix. Is there any specific way you're approaching them in drafts or just avoiding? Answer: Given the reports out of Jacksonville, Bigsby is the most interesting player for me. The Jags are kinda stuck with Etienne given his contract. And while people are focusing on Tuten, LeQuint Allen Jr. is also in the mix. Head coach Liam Coen talked up Allen in the offseason program. But really this comes down to who comps the best to Bucky Irving. Coen made Irving a breakout start last season. For me, that player is Bigsby, and he's still a late-round selection in most drafts. Question: Who are some of the players you're drafting most? Answer: I'm getting a lot of the Hero/Zero RBs. So some of the rookies: Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, Cam Skattebo. Guys like Jordan Mason, Tank Bigsby, JK Dobbins, Tyjae Spears, Trey Benson, Braelon Allen. At TE, like the late round guys: Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts. There's WR value up and down the board, so not really zeroing in on anyone there. 🎯 Ready to unlock your full fantasy potential? Remember, spots in the Discord channel are limited to Yahoo Fantasy Plus subscribers. And this is just the latest in an exciting series of Yahoo Fantasy Plus upgrades to help you crush the competition. Now's your chance to gain an edge — get your Yahoo Fantasy Plus subscription today. Need help? Visit our FAQs to learn more.
New York Times
16-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Falcons 2025 preview: Can a revamped defense improve enough to make a difference?
The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're looking at the most likely statistical path for a return. We're relying on a number of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength. Advertisement In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most. So what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20. That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA? We looked at the offense last week. Now, on to the defense. The Falcons were 28th in defensive DVOA in 2024. Only the Giants, Patriots, Panthers and Jaguars were worse, and only two teams outside the top 15 in defensive DVOA (the Rams at 25th and the Commanders at 26th) made the playoffs. Atlanta was 23rd in scoring defense (24.9) and gave up 30 or more points four times in the final seven games. Getting into the top half of the league in defensive DVOA probably isn't realistic for the Falcons, but some improvement almost certainly is required for a postseason berth. Clearly recognizing this, head coach Raheem Morris oversaw a dramatic overhaul of the unit in the offseason, replacing defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with old friend and former Falcons assistant Jeff Ulbrich and retooling the roster to get younger and more athletic. Five regular starters from last year's defense — safety Justin Simmons, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, outside linebackers Matt Judon and Lorenzo Carter and inside linebacker Nate Landman — are gone. Jarrett (Bears), Carter (Titans) and Landman (Rams) signed elsewhere as free agents. Simmons and Judon remain unsigned. Advertisement Those five departures have an average age of 30. In place of those snaps, the Falcons will rely on free-agent signees Leonard Floyd, a 32-year-old outside linebacker, and Divine Deablo, a 26-year-old inside linebacker, along with first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. and 2024 defensive tackle picks Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus. (The average age of the replacements is 24.5.) Ulbrich is the fourth Atlanta defensive coordinator in as many years, but there is at least one source of continuity. He will run a 3-4 base defense despite presiding over Robert Saleh's 4-3 scheme the last four seasons as the New York Jets' defensive coordinator, meaning it will be the first time since the 2021 and 2022 seasons that Atlanta has kept the same defensive structure in back-to-back seasons. The Falcons went from a 3-4 under Dean Pees in 2022 to a 4-3 under Ryan Nielsen in 2023, back to a 3-4 under Lake and Morris last season. Like every coordinator in the league, Ulbrich has promised his scheme will be versatile and incorporate elements of both styles, but it became clear during the team's offseason workouts that he's also wary of overcomplicating it. 'We're just going to play fast and not think,' Deablo said. 'They just want everybody to have simple jobs and go full speed.' 'Attack' has been the word most uttered by Atlanta's players and new coaches. Dorlus called the system 'controlled chaos.' The No. 1 priority for Ulbrich and the Falcons is to make opposing quarterbacks less comfortable. They were 31st in sacks (31) and 30th in pressure percentage (28.5) last season, according to TruMedia. The pass rush is not the only problem, though. Their opponents had the third-lowest time to throw in the league last year (2.94 seconds), according to TruMedia, an indication that quarterbacks are finding open receivers quickly. Advertisement The Falcons were 29th in passer rating allowed (100.2) and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed with 31. Almost half of those (15) came on third down. 'There's no great defense in this league that didn't affect the quarterback,' Ulbrich said. 'It's an absolute priority and it's something that has to get fixed.' Atlanta's secondary personnel is almost identical to last season, although rookies Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman could find spots in the rotation. That means the bulk of the responsibility for changing the pass defense will go to the new pass rushers — Floyd, Walker, Pearce and Bralen Trice, last year's third-round draft pick who missed the 2024 season because of a knee injury. 'I get beat up all year about not getting sacks, and that's got to change,' Morris said. 'The only way you can change that is to change that. That was part of our process, very intentional, going out and trying to fix the edge room.' Floyd has averaged 9 1/2 sacks in the last five seasons. Outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie, a 2022 second-round pick, has had 12 sacks over the last two seasons, and inside linebacker Kaden Elliss led the NFL in pressure percentage (29.3 percent) last season. The draft assets spent on Walker (No. 15) and Pearce (No. 26) suggest Atlanta expects them to be impact pass rushers immediately as well. Outside linebackers coach Jacquies Smith called the team's pass rush personnel 'a big pot of gumbo' and said the Falcons will spend the preseason determining how all those ingredients best mix. Atlanta's run defense was slightly better than its pass defense last season, although not much. The Falcons finished 21st in rush defense EPA, 23rd in yards allowed before first contact (1.59) and 26th in rush defense success rate, according to TruMedia. If Orhorhoro and Dorlus can prove to be an upgrade from Jarrett and 31-year-old defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, who also left via free agency, that will be a boost for the run defense. Replacing Jarrett in the leadership department will be just as hard as replacing him on the field. Advertisement He was the longest-tenured Falcon (10 years), but the team failed to reach a deal to keep him in the offseason, prompting his move to the Bears. The team will lean on safety Jessie Bates, who enters his third season in Atlanta, to fill that void, assistant head coach for defense Jerry Gray said. '(Bates) is one of those rare players that you hear all the things about him and you evaluate him coming out of college and in free agency and then you meet him and he's better than that,' said new defensive pass game coordinator Mike Rutenberg. 'Not only as a player, but as a person. He's so unique. He's a true combination of leader and unique player. He's a total force multiplier.' This defense will need more than one player like that, though, if it's going to move into the type of statistical category to make the Falcons a playoff team. 'We have a lot of youth, but we have the right vets in the right positions to tell us what to do,' Orhorhoro said. 'We have all stepped up. We all know the opportunity at hand. We have all accepted the challenge.' (Top photo of Leonard Floyd, left, and Jalon Walker: Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)
New York Times
09-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Falcons 2025 preview: Can this offense produce enough to carry the load?
The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're going to look at the most likely statistical path for a return. We'll be relying on a bunch of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength. Advertisement In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most. So, what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20. That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA? Today, we'll address the offensive question. The Falcons finished 13th in offensive DVOA last season but are confident that number will improve with more than 99 percent of their offensive production returning and a developing quarterback in second-year starter Michael Penix Jr. time to enjoy some @themikepenix dots 😮💨🎯 — NFL (@NFL) July 7, 2025 The only significant offensive contributor from last season who isn't on the roster heading into training camp is center Drew Dalman, who signed with the Bears as a free agent in the offseason. Most of last year's offensive weight was carried by the running game. The Falcons finished fifth in rushing DVOA last season behind Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo and Green Bay. They were sixth in expected points added per rush (.06), according to TruMedia. Third-year running back Bijan Robinson believes those numbers should improve. 'Sixth is not good enough,' he said. 'There were five other teams that were better than us. What do we need to do to be the offense that everybody talks about? That everybody mimics?' Advertisement Robinson finished third in the NFL in rushing last season with 1,456 yards on 304 carries, and he's one of only four running backs with more than 2,400 rushing yards in the last two seasons (joining Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams). Robinson's 1,887 yards from scrimmage ranked fourth in the league and were 30 percent of the Falcons offense. Only Saquon Barkley (34.8 percent) had a higher share of his team's offensive output. 'If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we'd still make big-time plays. He's that guy,' Penix said. 'He's the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there's that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that's him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we're going to do it.' Tyler Allgeier — who Schatz said 'might be the best backup running back in the league' — was 32nd in the league last season with 644 yards on 137 carries, and the Falcons were 12th in yards per carry as a group (4.5). The team has what Robinson referred to as 'outlandish goals' for the rushing totals this season, even after losing 20 percent of its starting offensive line. Ryan Neuzil, a former UDFA out of Appalachian State who is in his fourth year in the league, takes over Dalman's spot in the starting lineup. 'We're excited about Neuz being in charge of the offensive line,' offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. 'You're seeing a little bit more comfort with him now that he is the guy, and he'll just continue to take those steps.' Neuzil started eight games last season after Dalman suffered an ankle injury. Although Pro Football Focus graded Dalman much higher as a run blocker (79.8 grade for Dalman versus 60.5 for Neuzil), the Falcons' rushing numbers were better across the board with Neuzil in the lineup. Atlanta had a higher rushing success rate (47.7 percent versus 43.2 percent), more yards per carry (4.5 versus 4.2) and a higher EPA per rush (.00 versus minus-.05) in Neuzil's games, according to TruMedia. Outside of Neuzil, every other Falcons offensive lineman was graded 73 or higher in the run game by PFF, paced by Chris Lindstrom, who received the best run-blocking grade in the league (94.6). Bijan Robinson's belief that Atlanta's run game could improve doesn't appear far-fetched considering all that, but it's the passing game where the most dramatic improvement is needed to bring up the overall DVOA number, Schatz said. Atlanta was 15th in passing DVOA last season, with Kirk Cousins starting the first 14 games and Penix starting the final three. With Penix in the lineup, the Falcons were slightly worse in the passing game — 16th in the league in passing EPA (.08 per dropback) behind Cousins and 18th behind Penix (.06) — but they were a top-10 scoring team (27.8 ppg). Advertisement Atlanta's coaching staff is optimistic Penix will make big strides in his second season as a starter, and much of the Falcons' overall success hinges on whether or not they are right. 'The style of play he plays matches our skill guys, and the skill guys love playing football with him,' Zac Robinson said. 'Just looking for all those guys to keep coming together. The guys on the team love him. He walks around with a swagger.' However, the quarterback's small sample size makes his progress difficult to predict statistically, Schatz said. 'We don't know who Michael Penix is,' Schatz said. 'He was kind of good last year. You know who was kind of good in three games last year? Anthony Richardson.' The easiest way for Penix and the passing game to improve is completion percentage. The University of Washington product hit 58 percent of his passes in his three games, which ranked 30th from Week 15 through Week 18. The only starter in the league who was worse than that for the season was the Colts' Richardson (47.7 percent), and Penix's number would have ranked 315th among regular starters in the last 10 years. The Falcons' coaches believe Penix's completion percentage will improve because a full offseason as the starter will allow him to build connections with his receivers. They also acknowledge that he needs to improve his touch on shorter throws. 'He's an aggressive player with an aggressive arm, but sometimes you have to be able to dial it back a little bit,' quarterbacks coach T.J. Yates said. 'It's the process of learning a quarterback and learning how to coach him.' The coaching staff won't ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it's the trait they are most excited about. Penix led the league in air yards per attempt (10.2) in his three starts. For the season, that number would have ranked second (again, behind only Richardson) last season, and it would be the 15th-most aggressive season in the last 10 years, according to TruMedia. Advertisement 'Mike opens up a different avenue within the offense,' Zac Robinson said. In Penix's three starts, Atlanta was ninth in explosive pass play percentage (14.6 percent) but only 24th in offensive pass success rate (41.4 percent), according to TruMedia, meaning the passing game hit big plays when it hit them but didn't hit them often enough. Penix returns the same starting wide receiver rotation this season, led by fourth-year pro Drake London, whom many in Atlanta expect to have a breakout season. Penix believes London is overlooked among NFL pass catchers. 'He won't be after this year,' the quarterback said. 'I'm not going to talk too much. It'll show.' London was fourth in the league last season with 1,271 receiving yards and 12th in yards per game at 74.8. Darnell Mooney finished 25th in the league with 992 yards. Neuzil's permanent place in the lineup likely won't detract much from Atlanta's pass blocking. The Falcons allowed a 30.8 pressure percentage with Dalman in the lineup and a 33.1 pressure percentage with Neuzil last season, according to TruMedia. Atlanta was 22nd in the league in scoring (22.8 ppg) in its first season, with former Rams assistant Zac Robinson calling the plays. If he and Penix can improve on that number and Penix takes the steps his coaches and teammates believe he can, the top-10 offense that these Falcons likely need seems within their reach. (Photo of Bijan Robinson: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
USA Today
16-04-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Rams have been one of the most successful teams on Day 1 of NFL Draft since 2015
Rams have been one of the most successful teams on Day 1 of NFL Draft since 2015 The Rams have made just three first-round picks since 2015, but all panned out. The Los Angeles Rams haven't had many first-round picks in the past 10 years, but the ones they've drafted have been pretty outstanding. L.A. has been the second-most successful team on Day 1 of the NFL Draft since 2015, according to FTN Fantasy. The only team to finish higher than the Rams was the Detroit Lions. Despite the Rams' few picks, all of them panned out as good NFL players. The Rams had have just three picks over the past 10 drafts: Todd Gurley in 2015 (No. 10 overall), Jared Goff in 2016 (No. 1 overall) and Jared Verse in 2024 (No. 19 overall). Those picks have played in 159 Rams games since 2015, which is roughly 48% of the possible games they could have as members of the team. While this doesn't seem like a lot (that percentage ranks 25th among NFL teams, per FTN Fantasy), it's also a smaller sample size because Gurley's NFL career lasted just 87 games, Goff was traded away and has since played 65 more games and Verse is a second-year player. So other than Gurley's career being cut short by injuries, all of these players have been NFL mainstays. Meanwhile, this trio has eight Pro Bowls (three for Gurley, four for Goff and one for Verse), two All-Pro selections (Gurley) and one Defensive Rookie of the Year award (Verse). That's a lot of hardware for only three picks. The Rams currently have the No. 26 pick in the 2025 NFL draft — only their second in nine seasons. Could they strike gold again? We'll see soon enough.
NBC Sports
05-02-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Why Comeback Player of the Year is controversial
FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz joins BTE to discuss the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award betting market, and how to analyze "best comeback" vs. "best player" when weighing the criteria.
