07-02-2025
One way to stop Patrick Mahomes, slow Saquon Barkley plus key Super Bowl matchups
Inside: Matchups that decide the Super Bowl, making sense of the NFL's MVP and three perfect foods for Sunday. Let's jump in.
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Defense can still win championships. See teams like the 2007 Giants, last season's Chiefs, etc., whose pressure and coverage altered Super Bowls by forcing quarterbacks to linger in the pocket.
Since 2013, Super Bowl-losing QBs have taken 0.3 seconds longer to get rid of the ball than their victorious counterparts (Winners at 2.7 seconds, losers at 3.0, per TruMedia and inspired by Mike Sando). The six teams with the longest time to throw went 0-6. Overall, faster is better.
It's a small difference, but life is a game of inches, and so is football.
And that margin isn't just because trailing teams have to take deep shots. Even if you exclude the fourth quarter of those past 11 Super Bowls, the time difference is nearly the same (losers are at 2.98 seconds per pass, while the winners are at 2.75).
So delaying Patrick Mahomes might be the Eagles' best shot to win:
It should be great news for DC Vic Fangio. His Eagles have flustered QBs with the NFL's third-slowest throwing time: 3.24 seconds, right around Mahomes' difficulty zone. This defense has been even better in the playoffs, dragging Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love to an average of 3.32 seconds per pass, about 0.4 seconds worse than their combined regular-season average (2.9).
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The problem? This game is strength on strength. Fangio's defense is known for limiting explosive plays and forcing offenses to settle for shorter looks, but the Chiefs thrive on methodical drives, evidenced through their explosive-play rate (32nd), drives per game (tied for 30th) and success on third downs (second).
That's where Andy Reid comes in. When he's not busy chartering planes for cheeseburgers, he's 8-0 against Fangio-coached defenses. I'd expect KC to attack backup LB Oren Burks and the rest of the intermediate level, where the Eagles have been their weakest (they rank 15th in EPA against passes of 10 to 19 yards, but rank first or second otherwise).
If you want to impress your Super Bowl viewing party, bring a stopwatch: In the opening halves of Mahomes' 26 career losses, his average time to throw was 3.15 seconds, compared to 2.92 in wins and 2.49 so far this postseason. Sunday's first half will be telling.
Chiefs interior line vs. Eagles pass rush. Mahomes' protection improved after All-Pro G Joe Thuney shifted to LT in Week 15 — KC's 2.7 sacks allowed per game have dwindled to 1.2 since. Eagles DT Jalen Carter, who typically lines up across from RGs, should instead exploit Thuney's replacement and Kansas City's weakest starter, LG Mike Caliendo. The more sacks Mahomes takes, the slower he tends to throw.
Saquon Barkley vs. Chiefs defense. A big reason for his explosive runs in the NFC Championship: the Commanders' poor tackling. DC Steve Spagnuolo's defense tackles well, allowing just six rushes of over 20 yards by opposing RBs this regular season. Last February, they faced a similar threat in Christian McCaffrey, holding him to 80 yards on 22 carries, and the Chiefs have not allowed a running back to go over 100 yards rushing in their last 18 playoff games.
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Jalen Hurts vs. Spagnuolo's blitzes. Amidst an uneven season, one notable improvement of Hurts' game is his play against the blitz. Two years ago, Hurts outdueled Spagnuolo, throwing for 304 yards in one of the best games of his career. But in their Week 11 matchup last season, Hurts was constantly under pressure, taking five sacks and finishing with 150 yards and an INT. Which version do we see Sunday? (Here's a fun list of Spagnuolo's best playoff blitzes.)
Travis Kelce vs. Eagles zone defense. Fangio calls for zone at a 70 percent clip, and against that type of coverage, Mahomes takes longer to throw. Kelce, a master at finding holes in a defense, will be invaluable. He leads the team in receiving yards against zone (616), and the Eagles are allowing 75.7 yards per game to tight ends this postseason.
Kickoff is Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX. On StubHub, tickets start at $3,195, a steal compared to last year's get-in-the-building price of $6,900. Kendrick Lamar performs at halftime, cameras will be on Taylor Swift and the Chiefs remain favored by 1.5 points, per BetMGM. Giddy up.
For more:
Before we talk NFL Honors, Dianna shares what she heard from the red carpet.
After a monster first season with the Ravens that saw Derrick Henry finish with 1,921 rushing yards — the second-best mark of his career — and a legendary offseason training regimen to defy age (he turned 31 a month ago), it's clear he has plenty left in the tank. His contract, however, is up after the 2025 season.
On the NFL Honors red carpet Thursday night, I asked him: What's the plan for the future? His answer: 'I love Baltimore. I want to finish my career in Baltimore.'
Back to you, Jacob.
For 37 years, any MVP-winning quarterback was also an Associated Press first-team All-Pro. Last night, contrary to widespread expectations that first-teamer Lamar Jackson would win MVP as well, Josh Allen broke that streak — even though the same voters filled out both ballots.
Here's how the voting finished:
Here's how these same voters filled their All-Pro ballots:
Why the difference? The internet was ablaze in discussion. What might have played a role:
In 1987, John Elway's MVP award caused controversy, as he was a second-team All-Pro behind Joe Montana. Here's what matters: Just as '80s fans got to watch both Elway and Montana play football, we get to watch Allen and Jackson in their primes. Let's enjoy it, rather than only arguing about it.
Other winners from the NFL Honors:
Full list of NFL Honors winners here. As for the Hall of Fame, we saw Eli Manning left out as Antonio Gates, Jared Allen, Eric Allen and Sterling Sharpe get set to enter Canton. More here on the smallest class possible.
I'll leave you with three appetizers worthy of the big game, which means you can eat them with your hands. Starting from the easiest:
Mouth watering already? You're not alone. Also, all the above are gift links, meaning no subscription is needed!
Our final two Super Bowl props are inspired by the ultimate prop sheet:
For the last time this season: IS IT SUNDAY YET?! See you on Monday.
This week's most-clicked: 10 Myles Garrett trade proposals.
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