Latest news with #Farnocchia
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
The chances of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have changed. But what's the risk, really?
The chances that an asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, could hit Earth in seven years have fluctuated recently, but experts aren't preparing for the worst yet. At the end of 2024, a NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted 2024 YR4 and a month later scientists concluded there was a more than 1% chance the asteroid would crash into Earth in December 2032. When scientists first reported their findings in January, they expected the asteroid's future trajectory and impact probability to change as observational data was collected and analyzed. That's exactly what happened. On Tuesday, astronomers reported that 2024 YR4's probability of colliding with Earth increased to approximately 3%, which is unusual for a small asteroid that is only 130 to 300 feet wide. By Wednesday, that impact assessment dropped to 1.5%. "But the impact probability remains small, so people should not really be too concerned about that," said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Yes, there are scientific reasons why the impact probability change can increase suddenly. But the probability can also drop suddenly. Initially you might have a small probability of impact because "you cannot rule out the possible collision with Earth, [but] at some point the probability will go to zero," Farnocchia said. When an asteroid is identified, scientists cannot pinpoint its exact future location, but instead can gather data to predict its location within a range. If that range overlaps with Earth, that's when there's a chance of collision, reported NASA Spaceflight. With more observational data, astronomer's predictions of the asteroid's trajectory and future location become more precise. The current range for the trajectory of 2024 YR4 — based on hundreds of collected observations — is still being assessed, so the range is large and currently overlaps with Earth. That's why we're seeing an increased percentage of possible impact. As astronomers continue to collect data, the range could shrink so much that it no longer overlaps with Earth, and the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting our planet will become zero. The current trajectory of 2024 YR4 is almost a straight line away from Earth, and astronomers will continue to collect observational data until it is out of sight. They have until early April to track the asteroid's possible collision course and future location. You can follow along with astronomers' published findings on the Sentry webpage. In the unlikely event that the asteroid's trajectory connects with Earth, its point of impact would be somewhere along a 'risk corridor' that extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea and South Asia, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network. Yes, astronomers point to asteroid 99942 Apophis, 1,099 feet wide and first identified in 2004. According to NASA officials, at the time of its initial sighting, Apophis was one of the most hazardous asteroids in the sky, with the threat of barreling toward Earth in 2029. During early assessments of impact risk, Apophis reached a rating of Torino Scale 4, which is a scale for categorizing potential Earth impact events. The 0-to-10 scale ranges from no hazard (Torino Scale 0), to normal (Torino Scale 1), to meriting attention by astronomers (Torino Scale 2 through 4), threatening (Torino Scale 5 through 7) to a certain collision (Torino Scale 8 through 10). Upon gathering further observational data and assessment, scientists ruled out the impact probability for Apophis, for now, with a small chance of impact in 2068 declared unlikely. As for 2024 YR4, it's currently categorized as a Torino 3. It is uncommon for an asteroid to be rated at Torino Scale 3, because that categorization only happens for asteroids that are larger than 65 feet with an impact probability of 1% or greater. Even if this asteroid hits Earth, it could burn up in the atmosphere and become a much smaller meteorite before it lands. Slightly larger asteroids may make it through the atmosphere but often crash at locations that cause minimal or no immediate damage, according to the United States Geological Survey. Many meteorites end up in the ocean or in open areas. Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Los Angeles Times
19-02-2025
- Science
- Los Angeles Times
The chances of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have changed. But what's the risk, really?
The chances that an asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, could hit Earth in seven years have fluctuated recently, but experts aren't preparing for the worst yet. At the end of 2024, a NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted 2024 YR4 and a month later scientists concluded there was a more than 1% chance the asteroid would crash into Earth in December 2032. When scientists first reported their findings in January, they expected the asteroid's future trajectory and impact probability to change as observational data was collected and analyzed. That's exactly what happened. On Tuesday, astronomers reported that 2024 YR4's probability of colliding with Earth increased to approximately 3%, which is unusual for a small asteroid that is only 130 to 300 feet wide. By Wednesday, that impact assessment dropped to 1.5%. 'But the impact probability remains small, so people should not really be too concerned about that,' said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Yes, there are scientific reasons why the impact probability change can increase suddenly. But the probability can also drop suddenly. Initially you might have a small probability of impact because 'you cannot rule out the possible collision with Earth, [but] at some point the probability will go to zero,' Farnocchia said. When an asteroid is identified, scientists cannot pinpoint its exact future location, but instead can gather data to predict its location within a range. If that range overlaps with Earth, that's when there's a chance of collision, reported NASA Spaceflight. With more observational data, astronomer's predictions of the asteroid's trajectory and future location become more precise. The current range for the trajectory of 2024 YR4 — based on hundreds of collected observations — is still being assessed, so the range is large and currently overlaps with Earth. That's why we're seeing an increased percentage of possible impact. As astronomers continue to collect data, the range could shrink so much that it no longer overlaps with Earth, and the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting our planet will become zero. The current trajectory of 2024 YR4 is almost a straight line away from Earth, and astronomers will continue to collect observational data until it is out of sight. They have until early April to track the asteroid's possible collision course and future location. You can follow along with astronomers' published findings on the Sentry webpage. In the unlikely event that the asteroid's trajectory connects with Earth, its point of impact would be somewhere along a 'risk corridor' that extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea and South Asia, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network. Yes, astronomers point to asteroid 99942 Apophis, 1,099 feet wide and first identified in 2004. According to NASA officials, at the time of its initial sighting, Apophis was one of the most hazardous asteroids in the sky, with the threat of barreling toward Earth in 2029. During early assessments of impact risk, Apophis reached a rating of Torino Scale 4, which is a scale for categorizing potential Earth impact events. The 0-to-10 scale ranges from no hazard (Torino Scale 0), to normal (Torino Scale 1), to meriting attention by astronomers (Torino Scale 2 through 4), threatening (Torino Scale 5 through 7) to a certain collision (Torino Scale 8 through 10). Upon gathering further observational data and assessment, scientists ruled out the impact probability for Apophis, for now, with a small chance of impact in 2068 declared unlikely. As for 2024 YR4, it's currently categorized as a Torino 3. It is uncommon for an asteroid to be rated at Torino Scale 3, because that categorization only happens for asteroids that are larger than 65 feet with an impact probability of 1% or greater. Even if this asteroid hits Earth, it could burn up in the atmosphere and become a much smaller meteorite before it lands. Slightly larger asteroids may make it through the atmosphere but often crash at locations that cause minimal or no immediate damage, according to the United States Geological Survey. Many meteorites end up in the ocean or in open areas.
Yahoo
11-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chances of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade has nearly doubled, NASA says
The chances of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers. The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could strike the planet in December 2032 as it approaches during another journey around its orbit, according to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. When the detection of the asteroid was announced last month, NASA predicted just a 1.3% probability of it hitting Earth. The likelihood has increased to 2.1%. MORE: There's a small chance an asteroid could hit Earth within the next decade, says NASA The overall probability may be low, but a 2% chance of an asteroid strike is "uncommon," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News. "Getting something with a probability this high, like 2%, which is high for us," he said. On the Torino scale -- the method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects -- 2024 YR4 is ranking at three out of 10, Farnocchia said, adding that most space objects rank at a zero. The object was discovered in late December as it made a close approach towards Earth, but it is now moving away, Farnocchia said. MORE: Asteroid nearly hits Earth in Siberia, with a 2nd massive asteroid passing this week The elongated shape of the orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. Because of the unusual orbit, the asteroid will disappear starting in April until 2028, according to NASA. The uncertainty surrounding this space rock is still prominent as astronomers race to find out as much as they can about the asteroid before they lose sight of it. "We don't want to take any chances," Farnocchia said. NASA will use the Webb Space Telescope, the largest, most powerful telescope ever launched into space, to measure the asteroid's orbit as accurately as possible, the agency announced on Monday. The Webb telescope will also enable astronomers to study the infrared light that 2024 YR4 emits, rather than the visible light it reflects, which can offer a much better estimate of an asteroid's size. MORE: Asteroid to enter Earth's orbit temporarily: What to know about 'mini-moon' The asteroid measures between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and large enough to potentially cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, according to NASA. In 1908, the Tunguska asteroid, which was a similar size, flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia. The worldwide astronomy community is paying close attention to this asteroid and any others that could potentially impact the planet using multiple telescopes as well as measurements to detail the objects' positions in space, Farnocchia said. "We are tracking this object every night," he said. Chances of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade has nearly doubled, NASA says originally appeared on
Boston Globe
09-02-2025
- Science
- Boston Globe
Why the odds of an asteroid striking Earth in 2032 keep going up (and down)
To many, this feels unsettling. But what appears scary is, in fact, typical when it comes to newly discovered near-Earth asteroids. 'It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently, but that doesn't mean that it will keep doing so,' said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California who is involved in overseeing the programs that make these orbital calculations. 'What matters is that the probability of impact is very small, and that it is likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4.' Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Two key organizations are involved in calculating these impact odds. They are the NASA center Farnocchia works at, and the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre in Italy, which is part of the European Space Agency. These groups are the cartographers of near-Earth space, looking out for parts of the cosmic map where they can mark 'here be dragons' — in this case, potentially hazardous asteroids or comets. Advertisement When an asteroid (or a comet) is discovered, both centers use their automated orbital dynamics software (Scout and Sentry for NASA, and Meerkat and Aegis for the European center) to consider the available observations of the object. When the asteroid's many possible future orbits are plotted out, some may result in an Earth impact. But many of these orbits will shift away from Earth, so the probability of an impact will be low. It's as if the asteroid has a wide spotlight that's beaming out ahead of it. Earth is initially caught in the beam, but so is a lot of the space around it. Advertisement Then, more observations come in. The spotlight of those possible orbits shrinks. The outliers are gone. But Earth is still in the spotlight and now takes up proportionally more space in it. 'Earth now covers a larger fraction of the uncertainty, and so the probability of impact has gone up,' Farnocchia said. This can happen for some time as observations continue. 'That's why the impact probability rises,' said Juan Luis Cano, an aerospace engineer with the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. 'Little by little, it grows.' And it explains what's been happening with 2024 YR4's odds. Sometimes, as has been the case for 2024 YR4, the odds can fluctuate slightly. This is because the quality of some observations can be better or worse than others, which can move the cluster of anticipated orbits around a bit. 'All this is expected,' Farnocchia said. Normally, additional observations significantly reduce the orbital uncertainty, and Earth falls out of that trajectory — dropping the impact odds to zero. Humanity will have to see whether the same outcome awaits 2024 YR4. Telescopes can observe 2024 YR4 until April, after which time it will be too distant and faint to see until another Earth flyby in 2028. By April, it's likely that astronomers will have enough observations of the asteroid, spread across several months, to know its orbit precisely, and they will ultimately determine that no impact will occur in 2032. 'People should not be worried at this point,' Cano said. Nevertheless, 2024 YR4 is being taken seriously by NASA and ESA. 'Even though the probability of impact is small, it is larger than we usually find for other asteroids,' Farnocchia said. Advertisement If this asteroid were to hit Earth, it would unleash a destructive force similar to a nuclear bomb. And the current uncertainty over its future orbit extends to its possible impact locations, which include a mix of uninhabited, sparsely populated and densely populated areas: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. 2024 YR4 is unlikely to be on a collision course. But 'we don't get to choose when the next significant asteroid impact will be,' Farnocchia said. 'We just don't want to take any chances, and so we will keep tracking 2024 YR4.' And if it does become a problem, it may be time for Earth to rally anti-asteroid defenses. This article originally appeared in
Yahoo
07-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An asteroid could collide with Earth: What could happen if it hits, and should we worry?
An asteroid measuring as wide as 295 feet is possibly headed right toward Earth, but don't run for cover just yet. A NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, on Dec. 27. "The object had a close approach with Earth," which made it bright enough to be detected in surveys for asteroids, according to the Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Observations and data gathered since the initial sighting concluded that, as of Jan. 31, the asteroid is 30 million miles from Earth and moving farther away on its orbital path around the sun. There's a more than 1% chance the asteroid will make its way toward Earth and crash-land on the planet in December 2032. But scientists say they expect the asteroid's future trajectory and impact probability to change as astronomers collect and analyze more data. Identifying an asteroid whose path may be toward Earth isn't uncommon, said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Near Earth Object Studies. "When an asteroid is newly discovered, its trajectory can only be computed approximately, and a possible predicted collision with Earth years in the future may not be immediately ruled out," Farnocchia said. "As new observations are collected, the orbit becomes more accurate, and a predicted impact can generally be ruled out." What makes 2024 YR4 stand out is that a majority of asteroids do not have a 1% or more chance of making contact with Earth, especially not "one large enough to cause serious damage," he said. "However," Farnocchia said, "it is overwhelmingly more likely that 2024 YR4 will miss the Earth in 2032 rather than impact." In the unlikely event that the asteroid's trajectory is toward Earth, its destination would be somewhere along a "risk corridor" that extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. Astronomers will report updates on the asteroid's future path and impact probability on the Sentry webpage. Asteroids, in general, are not something people should be overly concerned about, Farnocchia said. NASA, in collaboration with international partners, has been surveying the skies for decades to identify asteroids. "To date, most of the large asteroids capable of causing catastrophic damage to Earth have been discovered, and they have been shown to not pose a threat," he said. An asteroid becomes a meteorite when it travels to Earth from a nearby orbit or the outer solar system and collides with Earth, according to the United States Geological Survey. Small asteroids typically burn up in the upper atmosphere before ever reaching Earth's surface to become meteorites. Slightly larger asteroids may make it through the atmosphere but often crash at locations that cause minimal or no immediate damage, according to the USGS. Many meteorites end up in the ocean or in open areas. Scientists are currently studying asteroids in our solar system to understand their potential to collide with Earth and what risks they pose on impact. In 2021 a collaborative of scientists published a report that identified the immediate effects of an asteroid, including "shock waves that can knock down forests and buildings, thermal radiation that can set fire to surrounding environment and tsunami waves for impacts in the ocean." Long-term effects could include changing how the ecosystem evolves. According to the report, "bare soil allows more rainwater runoff, changing the way that erosion works in the ecosystem. Dust from the impact or air burst can make it into the atmosphere, with climate effects." During the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, the impact of a 213-foot meteor lofted debris, creating bright nights for several days over Europe and Asia, from Siberia to the Atlantic Ocean, according to the USGS. Another notable event involved the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, which was 66 feet in diameter. Chelyabinsk caused minimal damage to the area where it crash-landed, but its entry created an air burst. That atmospheric explosion "created a shock wave that resulted in about 1,500 injuries to people and a large amount of damage to buildings and houses," according to the USGS. The event demonstrated the more widespread danger of larger meteors. The severity of an asteroid's crash depends on the size and the composition of the meteor, according to the USGS. Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
