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Trading this fintech giant using options ahead of earnings
Trading this fintech giant using options ahead of earnings

CNBC

time21-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Trading this fintech giant using options ahead of earnings

Chevron completing the acquisition of Hess following a legal battle with Exxon Mobil opened up a space for a new constituent of the S & P 500 to be added: Jack Dorsey's fintech giant Block (XYZ). Shares jumped nearly 9% on the news Friday and traded roughly 2½ times the average daily options volume, with calls outpacing puts by well over 4:1. Perhaps overshadowed by more recent fintech players more closely associated with crypto, including Block, PayPal remains a dominant player in the digital payments industry. It has an extensive network of over 426 million active accounts, 35 million merchant accounts and global reach. PayPal generates substantial revenue, with total payment volume reaching $1.5 trillion over the trailing 12 months, and adjusted revenue approaching $32 billion for the past year. Its asset-light model and 19% free cash flow margins enable significant share repurchasing. The current program authorizes open market share repurchases of more than 20% of the float at current market prices. Recent strategic partnerships with Adyen , Fiserv , Shopify and Amazon enhance PayPal's market penetration and integration, particularly through Venmo's acceptance at Amazon checkouts. Innovations like Fastlane, a guest checkout solution, and the PayPal USD stablecoin (PYUSD) demonstrate a commitment to capturing emerging trends in e-commerce and cryptocurrency. PayPal's strong brand, high merchant acceptance (76% among top North American and European retailers) and focus on personalization further solidify its competitive moat. As digital commerce continues to grow, PayPal appears well-positioned to capitalize on secular trends for investors seeking exposure to fintech. Despite its strengths, PayPal trades at less than 15 times its FY adjusted EPS estimates of $5.08 per share. Why is that? For one thing, the company's growth has slowed. Consensus estimates for topline growth are just under 3% for FY2025, although a better-than-GDP growth of 5.8% is estimated for FY2026. These growth figures are considerably lower than the company achieved every year over the past decade. Competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, Block's Cash App and agile platforms like Klarna and Adyen threatens PayPal's market share, particularly as younger demographics prefer alternatives. A Piper Sandler survey ranked PayPal fourth among teens. As earnings approach, however, PayPal is trading at a historic discount to the broader market, trading near all-time highs and at its own historical multiples. The options market is also seeing an above-average move. As I write this, the options market expects the stock to move 8.7% higher or lower by Aug. 1 expiration (which captures earnings on July 29). Down 12% year to date, PayPal has materially underperformed. However, several technical indicators suggest it could be due for a bounce. Perhaps earnings will be the catalyst? The trade A calendar call/spread risk reversal aims to capitalize on the "vol crush" that typically follows earnings, a trade we favor if 1) options prices are fair to over-priced and 2) we have a directional bias - in this case, playing for a bounce. One example is a purchase of calls close to "at-the-money" that expire after the expected Q3 earnings report in late October, as follows: DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.

Fastlane Half Marathon: Start time, route, and all to know about Dublin race
Fastlane Half Marathon: Start time, route, and all to know about Dublin race

Extra.ie​

time17-05-2025

  • Sport
  • Extra.ie​

Fastlane Half Marathon: Start time, route, and all to know about Dublin race

Running enthusiasts are set for another big outing in Dublin this weekend as Fastlane bring three racing events to Clondalkin in the west of the capital. The Fastlane 3/4 Marathon, Half Marathon and 10k takes on a flat course with long straight lines, and those who complete the race will receive a bespoke medal. It is sure to be an enjoyable afternoon for competitors as well as families and friends in glorious sunshine – here is everything to know ahead of the race getting underway: Plenty of running events are popping up yearly. Pic: Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile The Fastlane 3/4 Marathon, Half Marathon and 10k takes place on Sunday, May 18. Running has seen a huge growth in popularity in Ireland. Pic: Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile The race will get underway at 9.30am on Sunday morning. The race will get underway parallel to Lock View Road in Clondalkin before taking a route along the Grand Canal and looping back as its start point becomes its finish line. The course – flat at a total elevation gain of 27m – will take in the sights of the Grand Canal and the newly surfaced perimeter of Grange Castle business park. While an exact figure isn't known, there were a total of 1556 race finishers in FastLane's 2024 event, which excluded the newly-added 3/4 marathon category. A total of roughly 2,000 entrants should be expected on account of the extra race category – as well as the growth of running year on year in Ireland and globally.

Does PayPal Stock Look Poised for a Turnaround?
Does PayPal Stock Look Poised for a Turnaround?

Yahoo

time03-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Does PayPal Stock Look Poised for a Turnaround?

PayPal is looking to transform itself into a commerce platform. The company showed solid signs of a turnaround in Q1. The stock is cheap, making it an attractive investment option. PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) has had a tough start to 2025, with its shares down more than 20%. However, the company recently turned in solid Q1 results and issued upbeat guidance while laying out its growth strategy for this year. With its stock still beaten down, let's dig into its more recent report to see if a turnaround is near. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Above all else, PayPal CEO Alex Chriss is looking to transform PayPal from a payments company to a commerce platform that just doesn't facilitate transactions but helps merchants attract and retain customers. This includes helping customers discover new products based on a personalized shopping experience, suggesting the best payment options, and post-transaction engagement. It has a number of product initiatives on this front, including a smart wallet that can automatically apply available discounts, cash back, or loyalty programs. Its Fastlane solution, meanwhile, allows customers to check out with just a single tap without having to set up individual accounts at different merchants. It also has a commerce API that gives merchants access to PayPal's consumer profiles so that merchants can personalize product recommendations and offers. All these solutions are aimed at improving conversion rates for merchants to help them improve their sales. One of Chriss' main priorities since taking over has been to emphasize profitability rather than low-margin revenue growth. This could be seen in the company's Q1 results. Revenue rose just 1% to $7.79 billion, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 23% to $1.33. Analysts were looking for adjusted EPS of $1.16 on revenue of $7.85 billion, as compiled by LSEG. Transaction margin dollars, which are similar to gross profits, climbed 7% to $3.72 billion. This has been one of the most closely watched metrics for the company as it moves away from just trying to grow revenue to trying to grow profitably. Total payment volume (TPV), which is the payment volume that runs through its system, rose 4% to $417.2 billion. PayPal branded checkout TPV continues to show solid, steady growth, rising 4% on a constant currency basis, or 6% when adjusted for Leap Day. Payment transactions fell by 7% to 6 billion, while payment transactions per active account slid 1% to 59.4 on a trailing-12-month basis. Part of the reason behind this decline is that the company has raised prices on its unbranded BrainTree segment in order to "price to value," which has lowered the segment's number of transactions. BrainTree tends to serve high-volume, large platforms, so any customer loss hits total transaction volumes. Excluding third-party platforms that primarily use BrainTree, such as Shopify, the number of payment transactions rose 6% and 4% per active account. However, the company said third-party platform transaction margin dollar growth increased meaningfully in the quarter. Active accounts rose 2% year over year to 436 million. Monthly active accounts were also up 2% to 224 million. Venmo, PayPal's popular peer-to-peer app, remains a strong growth driver. PayPal is now monetizing Venmo primarily through two channels: Venmo-branded debit cards and the "Pay with Venmo" checkout option for merchants. In Q1, total payment volume (TPV) on Venmo grew 10%, while "Pay with Venmo" TPV surged 50%. Additionally, monthly active users of the Venmo debit card increased by 40%. This helped lead to a 20% increase in Venmo revenue in the quarter. Looking ahead, PayPal forecast Q2 adjusted EPS to be between $1.29 to $1.31, above the $1.21 analyst consensus. It is looking for transaction margin dollar growth of 4% to 5% to a range of $3.75 billion and $3.8 billion. For the full year, it maintained its forecast for adjusted EPS of between $4.95 to $5.10, representing 8% growth at the midpoint. The company said it did not raise its full-year guidance due to global macroeconomic uncertainty. However, it noted that it has little branded exposure to Chinese merchants, and the change to the de minimis exemption has fueled growth in companies like Temu. It also said that its guidance now includes "incremental flexibility" in the second half due to macroeconomic uncertainty PayPal is showing solid signs of turning around its business. Its emphasis is on achieving profitable growth rather than merely increasing revenue, with a significant focus on innovation. Its new solutions are starting to gain nice traction in the marketplace. Meanwhile, its Venmo business continues to show strong growth, led by its Venmo-branded debit cards and "Pay with Venmo" offering. From a valuation perspective, PayPal's stock is cheap. It trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 13 times 2025 analyst estimates and a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of just 2 times. It also has a 0.5 price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, with PEGs below 1 being considered undervalued. Given the innovation and profitability focus that Chriss is bringing to the company along with its cheap valuation, I would be a buyer of the stock at current levels. Investors may need to be a bit patient, but the stock should become a long-term winner as PayPal transforms itself into a commerce platform. Before you buy stock in PayPal, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and PayPal wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $611,271!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $684,068!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 889% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 162% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2025 Geoffrey Seiler has positions in PayPal. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends PayPal and Shopify. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2027 $42.50 calls on PayPal and short June 2025 $77.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Does PayPal Stock Look Poised for a Turnaround? was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio

PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty
PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty

Time of India

time29-04-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty

Synopsis PayPal beat Q1 earnings expectations, reporting $1.33 per share versus analysts' $1.16 estimate, and maintained its full-year profit forecast amid economic uncertainty from Trump-era tariffs. While consumer spending remained strong, the company is focusing on high-margin growth and branded checkout enhancements like Venmo monetisation and Fastlane to retain market share.

PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty
PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty

CNA

time29-04-2025

  • Business
  • CNA

PayPal beats profit targets, flags spending pull forward amid economic uncertainty

PayPal beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter earnings and stuck to its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, even at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have fueled economic uncertainty. Executives said PayPal was off to a good start in April, as consumer spending and the labor market proved to be resilient. Chief Financial Officer Jamie Miller told analysts that U.S. consumer activity accelerated as tariff-related concerns pulled forward some spending, echoing comments from big banks. Despite a strong start, PayPal maintained its previous annual profit forecast because of "uncertainty in the global macro environment". It sees annual adjusted profit between $4.95 and $5.10 per share. The forecast embeds some incremental flexibility into the second half of 2025 from economic uncertainty, CFO Miller said. "Keeping full-year guidance unchanged is encouraging given the uncertain economic backdrop. However, PayPal's challenges remain significant and investors are likely to want to see the pace of growth pick up to stay interested," said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell. Since CEO Alex Chriss took the helm in late 2023, PayPal has narrowed its focus and concentrated on high-margin businesses instead of aggressive growth. "Our strategy is working. This is our fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth," Chriss said in a statement. Excluding one-time costs, PayPal earned $1.33 per share in the first quarter, topping analysts' expectations of $1.16, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. PayPal shares were up 0.4 per cent in early trading. BRANDED CHECKOUT IN FOCUS Investor worries around growth in the firm's branded checkout offerings, which include PayPal and Venmo, have heavily pressured the stock. Additionally, concerns about market share loss due to increasing competition from Big Tech rivals Apple and Alphabet's Google have created a potential overhang. In February, PayPal unveiled plans to accelerate branded checkout growth to between 8 per cent and 10 per cent by 2027. PayPal is rolling out a new checkout experience and focusing on monetizing its Venmo app to accelerate branded growth. In the first quarter, PayPal's branded checkout TPV grew 6 per cent excluding leap day, compared with a 5 per cent rise a year ago. Evercore analyst Adam Frisch said branded checkout growth was yet to show signs of year-over-year acceleration. PayPal has also forged lucrative partnerships and introduced new products, including its Fastlane guest checkout feature, to shield its dominant position among payments firms.

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