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Time of India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Asian stocks decline as Fed rate cut bets wane
Traders this month have whittled the odds of Fed easing. Strong June employment data released July 3 led them to rule out a cut after the next meeting concludes July 30 and to downgrade the chances of a September cut, which was fully priced in as recently as late June. Asian stocks declined following mixed US inflation data, leading traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Concerns about persistent inflation were reinforced by comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Asian stocks fell at the open Wednesday after mixed US inflation data spurred traders to trim Federal Reserve interest rate-cut MSCI regional gauge dropped 0.4% with losses in Australia, Japan and South Korea. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.3% after the index closed lower Tuesday. Treasuries edged down in early Asian trading with 30-year yields topping 5%. The yen pulled back slightly after falling to its lowest level since Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said that while policymakers will likely need to hold rates steady for a bit longer to fully cool inflation as data signaled companies are beginning to pass some tariff-related costs to consumers. Traders priced in somewhat lower odds that the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the probability of a move in September is now seen as only slightly higher than 50%.'With risks still skewed to the upside, we expect the Fed to remain on hold until it gets more clarity about the relative risks to the inflation and labor market outlooks,' JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Jay Barry wrote in a note Tuesday. The analysts forecast the first rate cut to come in trade, President Donald Trump said he reached a deal with Indonesia that will see goods from the country face a 19% rate, while US exports won't be taxed. Trump also said he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon as the end of the month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well, suggesting that those import taxes could hit alongside broad 'reciprocal' rates set for implementation on Aug. President also predicted that he could strike 'two or three' trade deals with countries before implementing his so-called reciprocal tariffs before they are implemented on Aug. 1, saying that an agreement with India was among the most the Office of the US Trade Representative on Tuesday opened an investigation into Brazil over its trade practices. Trump had threatened a 50% tariff on the consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from May. While a decline in car prices helped keep a lid on the figure, goods categories exposed to Trump's levies including toys and appliances rose at the fastest paces in years.'While any tariff-induced boost to inflation is likely to be short-lived, with higher tariffs being announced, it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines for a few more months at least,' said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the board when his term is up in May 2026. Late Tuesday, Trump said Bessent is 'an option' for the Fed Chair this month have whittled the odds of Fed easing. Strong June employment data released July 3 led them to rule out a cut after the next meeting concludes July 30 and to downgrade the chances of a September cut, which was fully priced in as recently as late June.
Time of India
09-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
America needs immigrants. Without them, the world's most powerful economy is in trouble
A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas study warns that Trump-era immigration restrictions and deportations could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points in 2025. The main driver is a sharp decline in border crossings, not deportations. Under a mass deportation scenario, growth could fall by up to 1.5 points by 2027. Inflation may rise slightly. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Trump administration's curbs on immigration and ramped-up deportations will lower US economic growth by almost a full percentage point this year, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The drastic drop in immigrants across the southern border and increased efforts to deport more foreign-born workers could subtract about 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product in 2025, according to an analysis by economists including Pia researchers — who acknowledged that the limited availability of historical data makes their findings highly uncertain — examined how five different decreased immigration scenarios would impact GDP and inflation. They found the biggest hit would be to growth, with a slight increase to inflation this year from the new at the US-Mexico border dropped sharply last year and continued to decline after President Donald Trump's election. Trump has initiated a large-scale effort to deport undocumented immigrants and has encouraged people to leave by removing deportation protections for many foreign border crossings — not deportations — are the biggest driver of the hit to growth, the researchers found, accounting for 93% of the projected GDP a 'mass deportation' scenario in which 1 million immigrants are removed per year by the end of 2027, annual GDP growth would be nearly 0.9 percentage point lower by the end of 2025, and 1.5 percentage points lower by the end of 2027, the researchers expect US growth to cool to a 1.5% pace in 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey, from close to 3% in each of the previous two years.
Axios
03-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Some oil patch execs say "drill baby drill" isn't happening
President Trump wants to " drill baby drill." But many producers in the heart of the oil patch have other plans — and some say Trump's trade policies are discouraging drilling. Why it matters: Many things affect gasoline prices. But producers' caution about growing output could limit how much prices at the pump might fall by helping avoid a large market glut of oil. Driving the news: The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on Wednesday released its latest quarterly survey of execs in its region that includes the prolific Permian Basin. These anonymous surveys are hot commodities for anyone seeking the industry pulse. Threat level: " The Liberation Day chaos and tariff antics have harmed the domestic energy industry," one executive told the Fed. "Drill, baby, drill will not happen with this level of volatility. Companies will continue to lay down rigs and frack spreads," said the exec, one of several who criticized the tariffs. State of play: The poll of exploration and production (E&P) firms and drilling contractors showed overall activity contracting slightly in Q2, and production dipping slightly. Looking ahead, the poll's average of price forecasts is $68 per barrel over the next year for WTI, the benchmark U.S. grade, roughly where it's at now. "Almost half of executives surveyed expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they planned at the start of the year," it states. Large producers (10,000+ barrels per day) were more likely to see drilling "significantly" fall. What we're watching: Prices and input costs. If they drop to $60 per barrel and stay there, 61% expect their production to fall slightly over the next 12 months, while 9% see a big drop (see above). Twenty-seven percent of execs say the recent steel tariff hike will mean slightly fewer wells drilled, and 5% expect significantly fewer. Flashback: The Q1 survey showed that on average, firms say they need oil at $65 to profitably drill new wells. The latest outlook from the Energy Department's independent stats arm projects a slight drop in the second half of this year, and a slight annual decline in 2026. Yes, but: A White House spokeswoman said Trump is making drilling easier by rolling back "stifling" Biden-era regulations. "The One, Big, Beautiful Bill's tax cuts and full equipment expensing will further turbocharge growth and investment by oil and gas companies — another reason Republicans need to get this bill across the finish line and onto the President's desk," Taylor Rogers said in a statement. The big picture: U.S. output is already at record levels and the country is by far the world's largest producer. Trump's "dominance" agenda includes more drilling access in offshore areas and Alaska. But those are very long-term projects. Today's economic picture, combined with shale producers' focus on capital discipline and shareholder payouts, is working against near-term growth.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Shale to Slow Drilling as Trump's Tariffs Rattle Executives
(Bloomberg) -- US shale executives expect to drill significantly fewer wells this year than planned at the start of 2025, as lower oil prices and uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs hurt profits, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law Almost half of oil executives said they expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than planned at the start of the year, according to second-quarter survey results released Wednesday. For 'large' exploration and production firms — producing 10,000 barrels per day or more — 42% said they expected a significant decrease in the number of wells drilled. Most firms said that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by 4.01% to 6%. The responses highlight the headwinds facing domestic production, leading industry executives to take a cautious approach to drilling and spending in direct contrast to Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' rhetoric. Crude prices have fallen as Trump's tariffs threaten to slow the global economy, while OPEC+ accelerates the revival of its production into a market that was already well supplied. 'It's hard to imagine how much worse policies and D.C. rhetoric could have been for US E&P companies,' an unidentified executive said in the report. 'We were promised by the administration a better environment for producers but were delivered a world that has benefitted OPEC to the detriment of our domestic industry.' A majority of executives surveyed said they expect Trump's tariffs on imported steel to weigh on customer demand over the next 12 months. Some executives called for US steel producers to increase output, as the uncertainty in casing prices for essential steel tubing is delaying drilling activity. For service companies, tariffs mean they have to pass the cost on to their customers, one respondent said. The Dallas Fed's quarterly surveys are widely read for the anonymous comments that offer an unfiltered view on factors impacting the oil industry. The bank's region covers Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. 'It is a tough marketplace right now,' said one respondent. Most firms are holding contractors well below what they need to remain profitable, the respondent added. Oilfield service companies often provide the first indication of an industry downturn because they're the ones hired to drill and frack new wells. 'There is a concern some of our vendors will not survive,' one oil executive said. 'Our customers (exploration and production firms, or E&Ps) are refusing to help absorb these costs,' one oilfield service executive said. 'E&Ps continue to speak out of both sides of their mouths. They talk partnership but are treating their vendors like second-class citizens, pushing OFS to unsustainable margins.' SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'I'm watching!' Trump demands oil prices stay down after US strikes on Iran
Trump took to social media on Monday to demand that oil prices stay down in the wake of US attacks on Iran. Oil prices were down slightly on Monday after initially spiking on news of the attacks. Iran has the power to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-shipping route. President Donald Trump does not want to see oil prices rise in the wake of the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. Following the US attack on three Iranian nuclear sites, investors are waiting and watching as the potential for retaliation from Tehran raises uncertainty. While the US market's reaction has been muted so far, Iran has floated the possibility of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping port for the oil industry. Such a move would disrupt global oil flows, throttling supply and likely raising prices, but Trump took to Truth Social on Monday to demand that oil prices do not move higher after the attacks. "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING!" He added that raising oil prices would be "playing into the hands of the enemy." In a follow-up post, Trump used the moment to promote his "drill baby drill" mantra, which was part of his message while on the campaign trail last year. "Since day one, President Trump has championed domestic energy production to strengthen American economic security, and he continues to urge the administration to 'DRILL, BABY' DRILL' and keep prices low. As the President said, producers must keep oil prices down or risk playing into the hands of the enemy," White House spokesman, Harrison Fields, told Business Insider. A senior administration official added that the administration's goal is to "repair and restore" the US strategic petroleum reserve. "We currently are not seeing interruptions to oil flows, but are continuing to monitor the situation closely and coordinate with key oil-producing partners," the official said. While Trump has pushed for greater US oil production, there has been some pushback from the producers themselves. In a recent survey, oil and gas executives expressed frustration with the agenda, describing "drill baby drill" as being "nothing short of a myth." The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's survey of the industry in March 2025 showed that producers aren't keen on dramatically lowering the price of oil, with one respondent stating that "At $50-per-barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly." Higher crude prices are a top concern for markets as investors eye the possible knock-on effects of America's entry into the Israel-Iran conflict. On Monday, JPMorgan analysts said that the market is pricing in about a one-in-five chance that oil prices could shoot up by 75%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said that the conflict is one reason it hasn't lowered its recession forecast. Read the original article on Business Insider Inicia sesión para acceder a tu cartera de valores
