Latest news with #Fedmeeting
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
J.P.Morgan brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September
now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and uncertainty around President Donald Trump's latest Fed nomination. The brokerage had earlier forecast one 25 basis point rate cut in December but said in a note on Thursday that the risks now point to an earlier move, followed by three more quarter-point cuts before the Fed pauses. "For Powell, the risk management considerations at the next meeting may go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks," analyst Michael Feroli wrote. Trump on Thursday nominated Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a temporary seat on the Fed Board, replacing outgoing Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran's confirmation before the September 16–17 policy meeting remains uncertain, but JPM said his presence could increase divisions within the rate-setting committee. The move follows months of Trump pressuring the Fed to cut rates, often clashing with Chair Jerome Powell over keeping policy tight. "In the off chance Miran is governor by the time of the next meeting, that could imply three dissents. That's a lot of dissents," Feroli said. The Fed's decision may hinge on August jobs data. JPM said an unemployment rate of 4.4% or higher could justify a larger cut, while a lower reading may prompt resistance from policymakers focused on inflation. Separately, the JPM note said that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, a move it said would likely be welcomed by financial markets. Analysts at Barclays echoed the sentiment, saying Waller's appointment would reduce uncertainty around how the Fed responds to economic data, which could support longer-dated bonds. Traders now price in a 91.4% chance of a rate cut in September, compared with 37.7% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Yahoo
30-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets are about to kick off a huge week of earnings and macro data
The stock market is headed for its biggest week of the summer. Investors are watching Magnificent Seven earnings, the Fed meeting, and a barrage of macro data. Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations will cap off the week. This week is jam-packed with potential catalysts to move markets. Investors are looking at a heavy week of economic data and market-moving updates, with the Federal Reserve set to kick off its latest policy meeting, four out of the Magnificent Seven due to report earnings, and GDP and jobs data on deck. Here are the things investors can expect to look forward to: Mag 7 earnings More of the biggest tech giants in the US are set to report earnings for the last quarter, offering investors some insight on the state of the AI trade and whether companies are still willing to shell out for artificial intelligence chips. Here's who is on deck to report after the close: Wednesday: Meta, Microsoft. Thursday: Amazon, Apple Of the Mag 7 group, Alphabet and Tesla already reported earnings last week. Alphabet beat earnings and revenue estimates for the second quarter, but investors were concerned about the company's unexpected $10 billion increase in capital expenditures. Tesla, which has been mired in a long-running EV sales decline, saw its biggest quarterly revenue drop in at least a decade. Chip titan Nvidia will report at the end of August. Of the 34% of S&P 500 companies that have reported their results so far, 80% have beat earnings estimates, above the running average for the last 10 years, according to the latest update from FactSet. Data deluge The market is also gearing up for fresh inflation, jobs, and economic growth data coming out this week. Here's the timeline of what investors can expect: Wednesday Second-quarter GDP (second estimates). Economists expect the second estimate for second-quarter GDP to show that the economy expanded 2.3% year-over-year last quarter. Advanced estimates from the Commerce Department suggested that real GDP rose 2.8% year-over-year. ADP private payrolls. Economists expect the private sector to add 82,000 in July. That compares to the 33,000 jobs the private sector lost in June, according to last month's ADP report. Thursday Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation measure will get an update this week. Core PCE rose 2.7% in May, with June's figure also expected to clock in at 2.7%. Friday July Jobs report. Economists expect the US to add 102,000 jobs in July, down from the 147,000 payrolls added in June. Trump's tariff deadline Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations is coming up at the end of the week. Trump announced a fresh trade deal with the European Union on Sunday, which includes a 15% tariff on European imports and several stipulations for the EU to invest in the US and purchase more goods in key sectors. Yet, other countries are still negotiating. The US has only inked a handful of trade agreements with other countries, but Trump's team has said in recent weeks it expects more deals to follow. Some investors are hoping Trump will extend his deadline for tariffs, as he did earlier in the year, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deadline is set in stone with "no more grace periods" planned when speaking to Fox News on Sunday. Countries that haven't reached a trade agreement with the US by then will be subject to the tariff rate the president proposed on Liberation Day, or the tariff rate he proposed in a slew of letters sent to 23 countries that he also published on Truth Social. Some sector tariffs, like Trump's 50% tariff on copper imports, are also set to kick in on Friday. Fed meeting All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday as the central bank concludes its July meeting and announces its next interest rate decision to the public. Markets largely expect the central bank to keep rates steady as it eyes the impact of tariffs on inflation. Investors are pricing in a 98% chance the Fed will leave its benchmark rate unchanged this week, and a 44% chance the Fed will cut rates just once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "While the Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut interest rates, it's clear that this economy has been able to and should continue to be able to withstand the current level of interest rates. Stocks are up almost 10% so far this year, and we haven't seen a rate cut in eight months," Paul Stanley, the CIO of Granite Bay Wealth Management, wrote in a note. Trump has been highly critical of the Fed Chair, pushing for lower interest rates this year. But the president seemed to suggest he would accept whatever decision FOMC members came to when visiting the Fed last week. "Well, I'd love him to lower interest rates. Other than that, what can I tell you?" Trump said when speaking to reporters on Wednesday. "We would be helped if interest rates would come down, but we're going to see how the Board rules on that soon. I'd love to see them come down a lot," he later added. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
28-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets are about to kick off a huge week of earnings and macro data
The stock market is headed for its biggest week of the summer. Investors are watching Magnificent Seven earnings, the Fed meeting, and a barrage of macro data. Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations will cap off the week. This week is jam-packed with potential catalysts to move markets. Investors are looking at a heavy week of economic data and market-moving updates, with the Federal Reserve set to kick off its latest policy meeting, four out of the Magnificent Seven due to report earnings, and GDP and jobs data on deck. Here are the things investors can expect to look forward to: Mag 7 earnings More of the biggest tech giants in the US are set to report earnings for the last quarter, offering investors some insight on the state of the AI trade and whether companies are still willing to shell out for artificial intelligence chips. Here's who is on deck to report after the close: Wednesday: Meta, Microsoft. Thursday: Amazon, Apple Of the Mag 7 group, Alphabet and Tesla already reported earnings last week. Alphabet beat earnings and revenue estimates for the second quarter, but investors were concerned about the company's unexpected $10 billion increase in capital expenditures. Tesla, which has been mired in a long-running EV sales decline, saw its biggest quarterly revenue drop in at least a decade. Chip titan Nvidia will report at the end of August. Of the 34% of S&P 500 companies that have reported their results so far, 80% have beat earnings estimates, above the running average for the last 10 years, according to the latest update from FactSet. Data deluge The market is also gearing up for fresh inflation, jobs, and economic growth data coming out this week. Here's the timeline of what investors can expect: Wednesday Second-quarter GDP (second estimates). Economists expect the second estimate for second-quarter GDP to show that the economy expanded 2.3% year-over-year last quarter. Advanced estimates from the Commerce Department suggested that real GDP rose 2.8% year-over-year. ADP private payrolls. Economists expect the private sector to add 82,000 in July. That compares to the 33,000 jobs the private sector lost in June, according to last month's ADP report. Thursday Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation measure will get an update this week. Core PCE rose 2.7% in May, with June's figure also expected to clock in at 2.7%. Friday July Jobs report. Economists expect the US to add 102,000 jobs in July, down from the 147,000 payrolls added in June. Trump's tariff deadline Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations is coming up at the end of the week. Trump announced a fresh trade deal with the European Union on Sunday, which includes a 15% tariff on European imports and several stipulations for the EU to invest in the US and purchase more goods in key sectors. Yet, other countries are still negotiating. The US has only inked a handful of trade agreements with other countries, but Trump's team has said in recent weeks it expects more deals to follow. Some investors are hoping Trump will extend his deadline for tariffs, as he did earlier in the year, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deadline is set in stone with "no more grace periods" planned when speaking to Fox News on Sunday. Countries that haven't reached a trade agreement with the US by then will be subject to the tariff rate the president proposed on Liberation Day, or the tariff rate he proposed in a slew of letters sent to 23 countries that he also published on Truth Social. Some sector tariffs, like Trump's 50% tariff on copper imports, are also set to kick in on Friday. Fed meeting All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday as the central bank concludes its July meeting and announces its next interest rate decision to the public. Markets largely expect the central bank to keep rates steady as it eyes the impact of tariffs on inflation. Investors are pricing in a 98% chance the Fed will leave its benchmark rate unchanged this week, and a 44% chance the Fed will cut rates just once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "While the Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut interest rates, it's clear that this economy has been able to and should continue to be able to withstand the current level of interest rates. Stocks are up almost 10% so far this year, and we haven't seen a rate cut in eight months," Paul Stanley, the CIO of Granite Bay Wealth Management, wrote in a note. Trump has been highly critical of the Fed Chair, pushing for lower interest rates this year. But the president seemed to suggest he would accept whatever decision FOMC members came to when visiting the Fed last week. "Well, I'd love him to lower interest rates. Other than that, what can I tell you?" Trump said when speaking to reporters on Wednesday. "We would be helped if interest rates would come down, but we're going to see how the Board rules on that soon. I'd love to see them come down a lot," he later added. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
18-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 18, 2025
- Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director - Jim Bullard, Dean of the Purdue Business School and former St. Louis Fed President - Gargi Chaudhuri, Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist, Americas at BlackRock - Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director, joins to discuss the outlook for global energy prices amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Jim Bullard, Dean of the Purdue Business School and former St. Louis Fed President, looks ahead to today's Fed meeting and discusses whether the Fed will soon cut rates. Gargi Chaudhuri, Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist, Americas at BlackRock, talks about the outlook for equities amid continued global uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, talks about whether the Fed will lower rates should the labor market show signs of deteriorating.
