Latest news with #FerozeAzeez
Time of India
07-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Can auto and IT sectors outperform Nifty over next 3 years? This is what Feroze Azeez has to say
Feroze Azeez , Joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth , anticipates auto and IT sectors to outperform the Nifty index by 3-4% compounded over the next three years. Despite geopolitical concerns impacting goods exports, IT earnings remain strong, with Nifty IT showing consistent performance. Azeez believes the trade war's overhang on IT is creating an opportunity for growth. Which is the sector from where the next leadership is going to come in? Feroze Azeez: It will be very contrarian to say that because I look at larger timeframes because of the nature of the business I am in. If I am looking at three to four years, not three months to six months, I am looking at those sectors which can beat the Nifty by about 3% to 4% compounded over the next three years. Surprisingly, I will count auto and IT in it. IT as a sector is 25-27% lower than its peak. The Nifty IT index has about 10 stocks. Their earnings last year was 10.7% on a constant constituents basis. This quarter, Nifty IT's earnings are about 10.3%. Earnings are being ignored because of a lot of other ownership changes and the bad news on the geopolitical and external side. Our services export is $36 billion, that is not getting too impacted. $81 billion of goods export is getting impacted. $15 billion of goods which are exempt from the tariff are not getting impacted. But there is a little overhang of trade war on IT. I personally think, Nifty IT can beat Nifty by about 3% to 4% compounded over three years. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Really? When you say IT, you mean pure services or tech as well because a lot of consumption plays have the tech element and they are the ones where leadership is? Feroze Azeez : There are some new-age tech consumption stocks even in Nifty. But in Nifty IT, there is no representation yet. Either way if you are speaking about those stocks which are new-gen stocks, which are part of Nifty, I personally think those which are not profitable businesses today and use IT platforms for their business, are not at all earnings plays. That is why you see such high beta there. Now, Eternal became a part of Nifty last year. Once it becomes a part of Nifty with 1.86% weight, EPFO has 8 lakh crores or 7 lakh crores in Nifty. So, 1.8% weight of 7 lakh crores is a straight Rs 15,000 crore. So, what happens is when large stocks get listed, they suddenly come into these indices and the first flow comes from passive. Then the entire threshold resistance has been breached. First the trader comes, then the active fund manager tries to create a retrospective story that I am missing out but there is some case here. Actually, there is no case from a profitability standpoint. It is a vicious cycle of passive flows. As soon as you get listed, after six months most of the indices do a review and as you suddenly come into the industry or the listed space, you will suddenly get a weight according to your size. Tomorrow if the NSDL IPO gets listed, it is not a part of the NSE capital market index which Motilal Oswal formed. But once it is listed, it will come into that index. HDFC AMC is the largest stock. It might become the third, fourth largest stock. So, a lot of money needs to be moved from other 15 or 14 Nifty capital market stocks to NSDL. The market is missing this phenomena and that is why when so many businesses get listed, they get an impetus from passive funds and the trader sees all the charts and says oh, there is a flag pattern and it is time to enter it. The fund manager then says what did I miss and tries to create a report; the sell side analyst justifies those valuations rather than searching for valuations beforehand. You Might Also Like: Post this earning season, Pankaj Murarka is avoiding these sectors. Here's why Samir Arora sees investment opportunities in companies reshaping consumer behaviour
Time of India
06-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
A major correction is unlikely and every fall will be bought into: Feroze Azeez
Feroze Azeez , Joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth , discusses the market direction in the midst of tariff tantrums, Nifty earnings growth , as well as the domestic institutional investor behaviour. Further, three out of four derivative indicators suggest that no major correction is imminent and every fall will be bought into. There's so much uncertainty and I guess the market also seems to be indicating that. But the DII buying still continues. What are the internal indicators that Feroze Azeez maps about the market direction? Feroze Azeez: If I break the indicators down, Trump is trying to scare the Indian capital market , but is not getting any reaction. His negotiation tactic to crack at least one large economy is not seeming to work because the earnings growth has been 11% for Nifty if you keep constant constituents. There are seven reasons why the market is reacting very differently from the expectation of the news flow. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like One, Nifty earnings in the last financial year was not 6.5% as reported even on NSE because there were four constituents which changed in NSE over the last one year. The earnings growth of the current constituents of Nifty was 11%, not 6.5% that is point one. Earning has been in double digits. For NSE Smallcap, everybody said the earnings are not good. There were 63 changes in NSE Smallcap 250. If you ignore those changes, the earnings growth was not minus nine, it was plus 18. So, the narrative that the earnings have not been good is incorrect. You have to compare the same stock. You cannot compare Anand Rathi Wealth Limited's earnings of this year with another company which it replaced last year which was a part of the index. So, earnings have been healthy. Domestic institutions are putting in money but I do not think they are putting in so much money. It is still 6.2% of the total household savings. If the car is not starting and you are pushing the car at 5 km per hour, once it starts, will it go at 30-40 km per hour? The answer is yes. But the whole cult of investing at least double digit Indian household savings in equity, we could not do it over the last two, two-and-a-half decades. The Direct Tax Code, the new tax regime has come. People are being given money in their bank accounts and they are deciding on investing in equity. Three out of four derivative indicators tell you that there cannot be a major correction and every fall will be bought into. Live Events You Might Also Like: Samir Arora sees investment opportunities in companies reshaping consumer behaviour The other interesting thing that is playing out in the market is this fast-paced sectoral churn, very earning specific. Within private banks also you have got a very clear hierarchal order. Where is money getting concentrated as a pool right now? Feroze Azeez: If you look at each sector and break down flows and ownerships into different buckets, the domestic institutions are betting on banks heavily. Their active weights have gone up on banking. In Nifty, banking has 31% weight and 24% in NSE 500, which is what the domestic mutual funds money track as their tier I benchmark. So, where is the money headed? The domestic money is completely getting skewed to the banking sector. Of course, like you said, there is a hierarchy. That is happening because of foreign institutional investors. If you break it down into three categories and they should mandatorily be broken down into three categories, in spite of them all being called FIIs, they are – index fund investors, active FIIs, and the prop FIIs. Index fund investors have not taken one rupee out in the last four years. They have added money in India. But the discretionary fund managers in the FII or the hedge fund guys have pulled out money and that is why you see a net negative. The prop guys like education institutions are one of the largest investors in Indian midcap and smallcaps. These are the Harvards of the world. Those guys have taken out money because Mr Trump has choked their fundings. So, this is how they are behaving. Coming back, the ownership has changed because weightages have changed in different stocks. If people are not giving impetus or giving emphasis to the weightage change in indices, they will miss out on understanding demand and supply in each sector. Pharma has one of the biggest troubles but it has 4% weight, has a free float of almost about 47% in NSE 500. But that is not moving the needle in terms of earnings because of its lower weight. You Might Also Like: Weaker dollar story taking a breather but more weakening possible in quarters ahead: BlackRock's Gargi Chaudhuri answers
Mint
06-08-2025
- Business
- Mint
Amid market fall, should you still maintain 30:70 debt-equity ratio, or re-visit it? Experts speak
With benchmark indices - Nifty50 and S&P BSE Sensex - being down on Tuesday after a day of hiatus, stock markets closed lower in three of the past four sessions. Because of Trump's tariffs, the Indian stock market is expected to stay rangebound in August, said Jashan Arora, Director at Master Trust Group, in a Livemint interview. He said that the markets will struggle to price in geopolitical risk, given Trump's volatile stance. So, what should the investor's stance be at this stage? Is this the time to relook at the portfolio? Typically, investors are expected to maintain a debt-equity ratio at 30:70, which means keeping the value of equity mutual funds and other stocks at 70 percent ofthe total portfolio and that of debt assets at 30 percent. In other words, if you maintain a 70:30 ratio, then a ₹ 1 crore portfolio will comprise ₹ 70 lakh as equity and ₹ 30 lakh as debt. One might wonder whether the 70-30 rule is a fixed one, and investors should just stick to it. Experts do not believe it. 'Asset allocation should always be tactical and personalised, based on an investor's risk appetite, financial goals, and time horizon, not a fixed rule like 70:30 equity-to-debt,' said Yash Sedani, Assistant Vice President, Investment Strategy at 1 Finance. 'In the current market scenario, indiscriminately following such a static allocation may not serve every investor well. Different asset classes carry different levels of risk and respond differently to market cycles,' he adds. He further recommends investors consult a qualified financial advisor who can assess whether their current allocation aligns with their personal financial situation and market outlook, instead of simply relying on a one-size-fits-all approach. Experts also recommend that the asset allocation should not swing with headlines, and it should be built around an interplay of several factors, which include investors' financial goals, risk tolerance, and liquidity. And once decided, it should be reviewed from time to time. 'Asset allocation should not swing with headlines. Build it around objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity, then review and rebalance at set intervals. Equities and debt remain the core as their returns do not always move together and they have a low correlation, which smooths outcomes over time,' said Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited. Another smart tip for investors is to decide debt-equity allocation based on time horizon. For example, equity allocation is supposed to be higher when the financial goal is far-fetched and lower when the goal is nearer. 'As a practical guide, for goals due in two to three years, a 70:30 mix between equity and debt balances growth with stability. For horizons beyond three years, an 80:20 mix can improve long-term compounding while keeping drawdowns manageable,' added Feroze Azeez of Anand Rathi Wealth. He further recommends that investors should avoid single segment exposure within equity. 'You should spread exposure across market caps and styles. We believe a 55:20:25 split across large, mid, and small caps, complemented by strategy funds such as value and contra, helps reduce concentration risk and ensures the portfolio is not tied to the fortunes of any one segment,' he signed off. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of MintGenie. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. Visit here for all personal finance updates
Economic Times
31-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trump's 25% Tariff shock shakes D-Street today; pharma among top 5 vulnerable sectors
Sectoral Impact Overview Live Events Here's a breakdown of the sectors that may react to the newly imposed tariffs: 1. Pharmaceuticals 2. Steel & Aluminium 3. Auto 4. Textiles 5. Energy (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The US administration's sudden announcement of a 25% tariff on all Indian imports starting August 1 is expected to inject volatility across several export-driven sectors—particularly those with substantial exposure to the American market, according to to the uncertainty is the lack of clarity around an additional penalty linked to India's arms and energy imports from Russia, which remains undefined at this point.'From a technical standpoint, this move could weigh on near-term export competitiveness and trigger currency volatility if sentiment deteriorates,' said Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO of Anand Rathi Wealth 'The Indian market is currently being driven largely by domestic investors, and FIIs are almost 85% short. Therefore, a major sell-off is not expected. Some volatility is likely, any dips will be buying opportunities for investors with even 2-3 year time frames as we have already had a 10-month time correction,' he ongoing Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports presents a medium-term overhang for the sector, with the possibility of additional pharma-specific tariffs in the pipeline.'In the absence of clarity on the potential rate and scope of such tariffs, it remains difficult to quantify the impact on Indian pharma players at this stage,'said Maitri Sheth, Equity Research Analyst at Choice to a note by domestic brokerage firm Nuvama, the direct impact of the tariffs is likely to be felt in sectors where the US sets the marginal price—such as select industrials, cables & wires, and and aluminium products already under Section 232 tariffs are excluded from the new reciprocal duties. However, the sector could still feel the heat from global pricing pressures and demand fluctuations.'India, by contrast, expected its labour-intensive industries to be tariffed lower than other Asian competitors and wanted a reprieve from Section 232 tariffs on sectors such as steel, aluminum, and copper,' noted Nomura in its automobiles and auto parts are mostly exempt under Section 232 provisions, Indian auto component manufacturers remain vulnerable to shifts in U.S. demand cycles.'Sectors under ongoing Section 232 investigation (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors & electronics, among others) are currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs, while existing Section 232 tariffs will apply on steel & aluminum (50%) and autos – finished and parts (25%),' analysts at Nomura textile exports to the U.S. are relatively small on the global stage, but the sector is highly sentiment-sensitive. Companies with significant U.S. exposure could face short-term selling pressure.'The US is India's largest export destination, accounting for ~18% of total exports and ~2.2% of GDP. These industries form the backbone of India's manufacturing sector and have some of the largest formal sector employers, especially labour-intensive industries such as gems and textiles.'Nomura added, underlining the critical link between exports and industrial Trump's announcement included a 25% tariff on Indian imports from August 1, along with an unspecified 'additional penalty' for India's continued energy and military purchases from Russia. This follows the earlier 26% reciprocal tariff imposed on India on April a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump reaffirmed ties with India but emphasized his concerns:Mr. Trump called India a friend, but cited India's high tariffs, nonmonetary trade barriers, the purchase of Russia's military equipment and Russian energy as the reasons for imposing the 25% tariffs plus reflects broader geopolitical concerns over India's dependence on Russia, beyond just tariff-related warn that elevated tariffs, combined with increasing pressure to scale back Russian energy imports, could further weigh on net exports and dampen overall growth momentum.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
31-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trump's 25% Tariff shock shakes D-Street today; pharma among top 5 vulnerable sectors
The US administration's sudden announcement of a 25% tariff on all Indian imports starting August 1 is expected to inject volatility across several export-driven sectors—particularly those with substantial exposure to the American market, according to analysts. Adding to the uncertainty is the lack of clarity around an additional penalty linked to India's arms and energy imports from Russia, which remains undefined at this point. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category MCA Degree Design Thinking PGDM Others CXO Data Science Data Analytics healthcare Management Operations Management Digital Marketing Cybersecurity Leadership MBA Public Policy Project Management others Product Management Healthcare Technology Data Science Skills you'll gain: Programming Proficiency Data Handling & Analysis Cybersecurity Awareness & Skills Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT Master of Computer Applications Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details 'From a technical standpoint, this move could weigh on near-term export competitiveness and trigger currency volatility if sentiment deteriorates,' said Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO of Anand Rathi Wealth . 'The Indian market is currently being driven largely by domestic investors, and FIIs are almost 85% short. Therefore, a major sell-off is not expected. Some volatility is likely, any dips will be buying opportunities for investors with even 2-3 year time frames as we have already had a 10-month time correction,' he added. Sectoral Impact Overview Here's a breakdown of the sectors that may react to the newly imposed tariffs: 1. Pharmaceuticals The ongoing Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports presents a medium-term overhang for the sector, with the possibility of additional pharma-specific tariffs in the pipeline. 'In the absence of clarity on the potential rate and scope of such tariffs, it remains difficult to quantify the impact on Indian pharma players at this stage,' said Maitri Sheth, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking. Industrials, Cables & Wires According to a note by domestic brokerage firm Nuvama, the direct impact of the tariffs is likely to be felt in sectors where the US sets the marginal price—such as select industrials, cables & wires, and tiles. 2. Steel & Aluminium Steel and aluminium products already under Section 232 tariffs are excluded from the new reciprocal duties. However, the sector could still feel the heat from global pricing pressures and demand fluctuations. 'India, by contrast, expected its labour-intensive industries to be tariffed lower than other Asian competitors and wanted a reprieve from Section 232 tariffs on sectors such as steel, aluminum, and copper,' noted Nomura in its report. Also read: Trump's tariffs threaten to deepen $248 billion India stock rout 3. Auto While automobiles and auto parts are mostly exempt under Section 232 provisions, Indian auto component manufacturers remain vulnerable to shifts in U.S. demand cycles. 'Sectors under ongoing Section 232 investigation (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors & electronics, among others) are currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs, while existing Section 232 tariffs will apply on steel & aluminum (50%) and autos – finished and parts (25%),' analysts at Nomura said. 4. Textiles India's textile exports to the U.S. are relatively small on the global stage, but the sector is highly sentiment-sensitive. Companies with significant U.S. exposure could face short-term selling pressure. 'The US is India's largest export destination, accounting for ~18% of total exports and ~2.2% of GDP. These industries form the backbone of India's manufacturing sector and have some of the largest formal sector employers, especially labour-intensive industries such as gems and textiles.' Nomura added, underlining the critical link between exports and industrial growth. 5. Energy President Trump's announcement included a 25% tariff on Indian imports from August 1, along with an unspecified 'additional penalty' for India's continued energy and military purchases from Russia. This follows the earlier 26% reciprocal tariff imposed on India on April 2. In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump reaffirmed ties with India but emphasized his concerns: Mr. Trump called India a friend, but cited India's high tariffs, nonmonetary trade barriers, the purchase of Russia's military equipment and Russian energy as the reasons for imposing the 25% tariffs plus penalty. This reflects broader geopolitical concerns over India's dependence on Russia, beyond just tariff-related issues. Analysts warn that elevated tariffs, combined with increasing pressure to scale back Russian energy imports, could further weigh on net exports and dampen overall growth momentum. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
