Latest news with #Fibonacci


Economic Times
4 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Deploy Bull Call Spread in Nifty to gain from overall bullish trend in market
Following a reversal from the recent swing high of 25,670 registered on 30th June 2025, Nifty witnessed a measured decline, retracing down to the key psychological and technical level of 25,000 early this week.A subsequent rebound was observed; however, it has currently stalled around 25,250 — a level that coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop from 25,670 to 25,000, thereby acting as a short-term

Economic Times
7 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
IREDA shares down 28% in 2025. Can the stock rebound past Rs 185 or is it time to sell?
After a scorching rally that saw shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) triple in less than a year, the state-run financier has lost nearly a third of its value in 2025, and over 40% from its peak. With the stock now trading below all key technical averages and investor confidence rattled by asset quality concerns, the question looms large: is this merely a pause before the next leg up, or has the market already priced in IREDA's green ambitions? ADVERTISEMENT On the face of it, IREDA's operational momentum remains intact. In the June quarter, loan sanctions rose 29% year-on-year to Rs 11,740 crore, while disbursements climbed 31% to Rs 6,981 crore. The company's outstanding loan book expanded 27% to Rs 79,960 crore, bolstered by strong demand across renewables, energy efficiency, green hydrogen, and EV infrastructure. But markets appear unconvinced. Shares are down 28% year-to-date, 5.9% in the past week alone, and 41.3% over the last 12 months. Since hitting an all-time high of Rs 283 in July 2024, the stock has corrected 43.6%, trading now at just 16.6% above its 52-week low of Rs 137 hit in March this year. From a technical standpoint, the picture is decisively bearish. IREDA is trading below all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.6 and MACD at -2.5 both signal waning momentum. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said, 'Since the last 4 months, the price has been trading sideways. During this period, the price tested its 200 DEMA twice but failed to sustain above the same.' He added that, 'the level of 185 on the upside is a strong resistance for the stock, while the level of 135 is likely to act as a strong support. Momentum [is] unlikely in the stock as long as the price trades within this range.' ADVERTISEMENT According to Shah, 'currently the RSI has dropped [below] 40, indicating weakening momentum. MACD, on the other hand, is below the zero line which further reinforces the bearish trend in the stock.' He warned there are 'no signs of base formation or reversal pattern on the charts.'Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking echoed this sentiment, noting that the stock 'faces strong resistance around Rs 175–180' and warned that 'a breach below [the] Rs 140 support level could trigger a deeper correction.' ADVERTISEMENT Shah sees a short-term breakout level at Rs 185 and said 'a strong close above Rs 185 can lead to price moving [to] Rs 210 level in the near term.'Whether the selloff reflects a deeper shift in investor sentiment or simply a bout of profit-taking remains contested. ADVERTISEMENT Shah believes 'this is more of [a] technical correction than a longer-term breakdown,' noting that prices recently bounced near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of Rs 50 (Nov 2023) to the high of Rs 310 (July 2024). However, he added that a fall below Rs 121—'a major swing low'—could invalidate this view and confirm a trend reversal. Amit Trivedi, Technical Analyst at YES Securities, was more cautious. 'Unless a strong base or reversal structure emerges, this appears to be more than a technical correction. The breakdown seems to be broad-based and systemic, not just a short-term overreaction.' ADVERTISEMENT Trivedi said that 'a close above Rs 175 with volumes could signal short-term strength,' but so far, 'no classical base formation is clearly visible.' Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza also flagged caution and said, 'It is still too early to look for any base formation or reversal pattern at current levels.' He pegged Rs 190 as a strong resistance zone and advised that 'fresh long positions are not recommended' without confirmation of a reversal. 'The major support is placed near Rs 119,' Kamble said. 'Given the ongoing downtrend, it is advisable to avoid anticipating a reversal here.'IREDA's sharp decline has come despite continued business growth. Yet concerns over asset quality and rising costs have overshadowed its operational Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that net profit for Q1FY26 dropped about 36% YoY to Rs 247 crore, "driven by a sharp rise in operating expenses (+60%) and a jump in NPAs (gross 4.13%, net 2.05%)—largely tied to exposure to the Gensol group.'While Jain sees long-term potential in IREDA's renewable energy portfolio and valuations that are 'reasonable to slightly cheap,' he noted that 'near-term earnings risk, asset quality concerns, and sentiment overhang… may keep the stock range-bound.'Jain also flagged 'NPA risk, operating leverage pressure, and dependence on refinancing' as key risks for the second half of Rs 185 has emerged as the widely watched resistance level, analysts are also pointing to other crucial inflection points that could dictate IREDA's next Bhojane, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that "currently, the stock is trading in a sideways trend. In the near term, a decisive close above Rs 170 could trigger fresh buying momentum, with upside targets of Rs 180 and Rs 190. On the downside, if the price breaks below Rs 153, it may lead to a correction toward Rs 140, which will act as a major medium-term support level and target in case of further weakness."Amit Trivedi of YES Securities also highlighted Rs 175 as an immediate hurdle, stressing the need for 'evidence of demand absorption' and 'a breakout above ₹175 on strong volumes' for any meaningful recovery to take Kamble from Bonanza added that without confirmation of a reversal, 'any short-term rise should be viewed as a selling opportunity within the prevailing negative trend.'With multiple resistance levels clustered between Rs 170 and Rs 185, and volume indicators failing to confirm accumulation, analysts suggest investors may be better served waiting for a definitive breakout rather than positioning prematurely. Also read | MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)


Time of India
7 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
IREDA shares down 28% in 2025. Can the stock rebound past Rs 185 or is it time to sell?
After a scorching rally that saw shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) triple in less than a year, the state-run financier has lost nearly a third of its value in 2025, and over 40% from its peak. With the stock now trading below all key technical averages and investor confidence rattled by asset quality concerns, the question looms large: is this merely a pause before the next leg up, or has the market already priced in IREDA 's green ambitions? On the face of it, IREDA's operational momentum remains intact. In the June quarter, loan sanctions rose 29% year-on-year to Rs 11,740 crore, while disbursements climbed 31% to Rs 6,981 crore. The company's outstanding loan book expanded 27% to Rs 79,960 crore, bolstered by strong demand across renewables, energy efficiency, green hydrogen, and EV infrastructure. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category But markets appear unconvinced. Shares are down 28% year-to-date, 5.9% in the past week alone, and 41.3% over the last 12 months. Since hitting an all-time high of Rs 283 in July 2024, the stock has corrected 43.6%, trading now at just 16.6% above its 52-week low of Rs 137 hit in March this year. From a technical standpoint, the picture is decisively bearish. IREDA is trading below all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.6 and MACD at -2.5 both signal waning momentum. 'Momentum unlikely' unless key resistance is breached Live Events Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities , said, 'Since the last 4 months, the price has been trading sideways. During this period, the price tested its 200 DEMA twice but failed to sustain above the same.' He added that, 'the level of 185 on the upside is a strong resistance for the stock, while the level of 135 is likely to act as a strong support. Momentum [is] unlikely in the stock as long as the price trades within this range.' According to Shah, 'currently the RSI has dropped [below] 40, indicating weakening momentum. MACD, on the other hand, is below the zero line which further reinforces the bearish trend in the stock.' He warned there are 'no signs of base formation or reversal pattern on the charts.' Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking echoed this sentiment, noting that the stock 'faces strong resistance around Rs 175–180' and warned that 'a breach below [the] Rs 140 support level could trigger a deeper correction.' Shah sees a short-term breakout level at Rs 185 and said 'a strong close above Rs 185 can lead to price moving [to] Rs 210 level in the near term.' Correction or breakdown? Whether the selloff reflects a deeper shift in investor sentiment or simply a bout of profit-taking remains contested. Shah believes 'this is more of [a] technical correction than a longer-term breakdown,' noting that prices recently bounced near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of Rs 50 (Nov 2023) to the high of Rs 310 (July 2024). However, he added that a fall below Rs 121—'a major swing low'—could invalidate this view and confirm a trend reversal. Amit Trivedi, Technical Analyst at YES Securities , was more cautious. 'Unless a strong base or reversal structure emerges, this appears to be more than a technical correction. The breakdown seems to be broad-based and systemic, not just a short-term overreaction.' Trivedi said that 'a close above Rs 175 with volumes could signal short-term strength,' but so far, 'no classical base formation is clearly visible.' Kunal Kamble , Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza also flagged caution and said, 'It is still too early to look for any base formation or reversal pattern at current levels.' He pegged Rs 190 as a strong resistance zone and advised that 'fresh long positions are not recommended' without confirmation of a reversal. 'The major support is placed near Rs 119,' Kamble said. 'Given the ongoing downtrend, it is advisable to avoid anticipating a reversal here.' Fundamentals intact, but sentiment shaky IREDA's sharp decline has come despite continued business growth. Yet concerns over asset quality and rising costs have overshadowed its operational performance. Nitin Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that net profit for Q1FY26 dropped about 36% YoY to Rs 247 crore, "driven by a sharp rise in operating expenses (+60%) and a jump in NPAs (gross 4.13%, net 2.05%)—largely tied to exposure to the Gensol group.' While Jain sees long-term potential in IREDA's renewable energy portfolio and valuations that are 'reasonable to slightly cheap,' he noted that 'near-term earnings risk, asset quality concerns, and sentiment overhang… may keep the stock range-bound.' Jain also flagged 'NPA risk, operating leverage pressure, and dependence on refinancing' as key risks for the second half of FY25. Rs 185: the pivot point? While Rs 185 has emerged as the widely watched resistance level, analysts are also pointing to other crucial inflection points that could dictate IREDA's next move. Mandar Bhojane, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that "currently, the stock is trading in a sideways trend. In the near term, a decisive close above Rs 170 could trigger fresh buying momentum, with upside targets of Rs 180 and Rs 190. On the downside, if the price breaks below Rs 153, it may lead to a correction toward Rs 140, which will act as a major medium-term support level and target in case of further weakness." Amit Trivedi of YES Securities also highlighted Rs 175 as an immediate hurdle, stressing the need for 'evidence of demand absorption' and 'a breakout above ₹175 on strong volumes' for any meaningful recovery to take shape. Kunal Kamble from Bonanza added that without confirmation of a reversal, 'any short-term rise should be viewed as a selling opportunity within the prevailing negative trend.' With multiple resistance levels clustered between Rs 170 and Rs 185, and volume indicators failing to confirm accumulation, analysts suggest investors may be better served waiting for a definitive breakout rather than positioning prematurely. Also read | MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy? ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Strength for the Dollar After Higher Inflation
The figure of 2.7% for non-core annual inflation in the USA in June was in line with the majority of expectations, but still provoked a fairly strong reaction by the dollar. It seems to have decreased the probability of the Federal Reserve ('the Fed') cutting in September. This article summarises the last big release and its context, then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and USDJPY. The latest data on inflation showed a four-month high for the annual headline figure: Food, transport and used vehicles were among the main drivers of the higher rate of inflation. This release questions further the idea that inflation is on track to return to 2% sustainably. While both the monthly and annual core figures were slightly below expectations, they also rose. Rising inflation is important because it's one of the key factors cited by the Federal Open Market Committee influencing upcoming decisions. Alongside it, the Fed's also looking at the developing situation with tariffs and governmental policy in general plus geopolitical risks. The significant shift after the last release of inflation was the rise in the probability of the Fed holding in September as well according to CME FedWatch. A hold at the current 4.25-4.5% on 30 July seems almost guaranteed with a probability of around 97%, but the probability of the Fed holding on 17 September too is now around 45%. This isn't a very surprising scenario. Since the beginning of the current cycle of loosening policy, expectations for upcoming cuts have shifted back fairly consistently, so the default expectation is for the Fed to be cautious and prefer leaving policy moderately restrictive for longer. That's broadly positive for the dollar, but the greenback's performance depends heavily on trade tension and the ebb and flow of confidence in the American government's announced and actual policies on tariffs. Euro-dollar Pushes Below $1.16 for Now The announcement of 30% American tariffs on the EU from 1 August caused some negativity on the prospects for the bloc's economy, but as with any similar announcement so far this year, it's likely that the figure can be negotiated down or just backtracked by the American government. A more immediate important factor driving euro-dollar down has been the significant rise in American annual headline inflation in June to 2.7%. The ECB is likely to cut once more this year and the Fed twice, but there's some intrigue on the timing of the latter. The retreat from the area of $1.18 – a high of nearly four years – has so far been fairly consistent with some momentum. However, $1.16 still seems to be an important battleground, with the long wick on 16 July indicating buying pressure. With the price currently oversold and there not being a clear uptick in selling volume, the 50 SMA around $1.155 might be an important short-term dynamic support. A move back up to the 38.2% monthly Fibonacci retracement around $1.166 seems possible in the next few days, depending on the volume of buying and reactions to upcoming news. For now, the movement seems more like a relatively small retracement in the context of the uptrend than the beginning of a new downward or sideways trend, but this depends on the reaction to the ECB's meeting on 24 July as well. Dollar-yen Remains at a Crossroads USDJPY gained more strongly than most other major pairs with the dollar in the aftermath of June's higher American inflation. One of the key factors here seems to be generally disappointing trade data from Japan and rising concern in some quarters of a technical recession; weaker economic figures challenge the prevailing expectations that the BoJ will continue to hike rates, but a hike on 31 July still seems fairly likely. ¥149, also the area of the 200 SMA, is a key area: a close above there might signal a push up to ¥150 or possibly even higher. However, the price still hasn't clearly broken above the previous resistance of the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement slightly above ¥148. Another close above there with a higher volume of buying might give more confidence in further gains. There isn't an obvious short-term support. ¥147, the limit of 16 July's tail, is a possibility, but this isn't confirmed. The 20 SMA is a lot lower; a move beyond there into the value area with the 50 and 100 SMAs seems very unlikely for now unless there's major surprising news of tariffs or expectations for monetary policy shift dramatically. The opinions here are personal to the writer; they do not represent the opinions of Exness or FX Empire. This is not a recommendation to trade. This article was submitted by Michael Stark, an analyst at Exness. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Japan's 10-Year Yield Peaks: What's Driving the Rise? Coinbase on Fire from Sustained Big Money Buys Outliers Like Intuit Can Be Found Early Spot Outliers Like AI Star Broadcom Before They Pop Some Gains for the Aussie Dollar After the RBA Unexpectedly Holds RBA Surprised by Holding Rates: How Did AUD/USD React? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Cryptocurrency Live News & Updates : FET Maintains Key Support: Eyes on $1.03 and Beyond
16 Jul 2025 | 11:55:11 PM IST is showing signs of bullish momentum after holding crucial support levels, with targets set at $1.03 and potentially $1.40 if the upward trend continues. In recent developments, (FET) has demonstrated resilience by bouncing back from significant support zones, particularly the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound suggests a bullish trend, with potential targets at $1.03 and $1.40. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives has advanced procedural votes on key cryptocurrency legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the Anti-CBDC Act, setting the stage for formal debates later this week. In corporate news, Matador Technologies has unveiled a long-term strategy to significantly boost its Bitcoin holdings, aiming to acquire up to 6,000 Bitcoins by 2027. Additionally, Bitcoin strategy manager Chaitanya Jain expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage debt even if Bitcoin prices dip below $20,000, ensuring adequate collateral is maintained. Lastly, VCI Global Limited has announced its acquisition of a Malaysian fund management firm, planning to launch a Bitcoin fund aimed at institutional investors. These developments reflect a dynamic landscape in the cryptocurrency sector, highlighting both corporate strategies and legislative progress. Show more