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National Observer
4 days ago
- Business
- National Observer
Alberta's grievances aren't actually reasonable
It's time I gave Danielle Smith some credit: she certainly knows how to create a distraction. Her recent efforts to empower and enable Alberta's separatist movement have consumed so much of the political and media oxygen in the province that it's hard to talk about her government's various scandals and self-inflicted wounds, from the ongoing collapse of the healthcare system to the deliberate kneecapping of the province's renewable energy sector. The bad news here, at least for the separatists she's given so much hope lately, is that the idea of an independent Alberta remains as unpopular as ever. A recent Janet Brown poll of Albertans conducted for CBC Calgary shows support for separatism remains stuck around 30 per cent, with the biggest recent change actually being a surge in self-reported attachment to Canada. The idea that Alberta is being deliberately screwed over by Ottawa, on the other hand, finds far more favour. In a May 13 press conference — one where he refused to publicly condemn Alberta's separatists — Pierre Poilievre told reporters that Albertans have 'a lot of legitimate grievances,' ones that revolve almost entirely around the treatment of the oil and gas industry. 'Let's be blunt,' he said. 'Canada's biggest industry … largely situated in Alberta, has been under attack for the last decade.' It's worth noting that said 'attack' includes the construction of the first two pipelines to Pacific tidewater in 70 years, one of which was paid for by Canadian taxpayers. Said 'attack' has also resulted in massive production growth and record profits for Canada's oil and gas industry. Most industries would probably kill to be 'attacked' like this. Even so, this willful misrepresentation of the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta has become a shared reflex among Canada's Conservative political and pundit class. In a recent Financial Post column, Diane Francis — who once argued for an American 'merger' with Canada — hit all the familiar talking points. 'None of these complaints are new,' she wrote, 'but now they are potentially nation-busting. Albertans are not a bunch of whiny separatists, but have legitimate grievances that deserve respect and remedy.' Do they, though? Francis highlights Ottawa's 'unfair equalization system,' a system that nine years of a Stephen Harper-led Conservative government declined to change. It's true that Albertans pay more in federal taxes on a per-capita basis than other provinces, a reality owing entirely to the fact that they make more money than people in other provinces. They pay the same tax rates as other Canadians, and would continue to even if the entire equalization program was eliminated tomorrow. Francis also highlights the 'unfair seat distributions in the House of Commons,' which she says 'favours Liberal-voting provinces at the expense of the West.' Alas, this isn't actually true. After the most recent electoral redistribution process, one that saw three seats added in Alberta, the most under-represented province in parliament in terms of the ratio of seats to population is actually Ontario. Two of the more over-represented provinces, meanwhile, are Saskatchewan — not exactly a Liberal stronghold — and Manitoba. Whether it's Jason Kenney or Naheed Nenshi, federalist politicians in Alberta seem more than happy to accept Danielle Smith's framing of the province's relationship with Ottawa. That's a mistake — one that could prove fatal to Canada's future. But these are mere appetizers to the main course on Alberta's menu of grievances: the treatment of the oil and gas industry. To hear Francis and others tell it, the current Liberal government has single-handedly stood between the province and its rightful status as a global oil and gas superpower. The facts, as much as they even matter to grievance-hungry Albertans, don't support their feelings. As I've written before, previous federal governments — and, specifically, Liberal federal governments — have played a key role in helping Alberta's oil and gas industry. The feds directly funded some of the earliest oilsands ventures, and stepped in to backstop them when private sector partners pulled out. It changed the tax treatment of oilsands projects to make them more economically viable, which helped precipitate the massive boom in the early 2000s that many Albertans remember fondly. And yes, it got the Trans Mountain pipeline built in the face of opposition from provincial and local governments in British Columbia. Even the dreaded National Energy Program would have been a boon to the oil sands if it hadn't been killed by Brian Mulroney's government. Yes, it would have built the very east-west pipelines that so many Conservatives have spent years pining for lately. But it also would have paid a premium for oilsands crude that would have generated hundreds of billions in extra revenue for the industry according to University of Alberta economist Andrew Leach. Most of the angst in Alberta today revolves around Ottawa's ongoing attempts to reduce carbon pollution, involving varying proportions of carrots and sticks. Both the oil and gas industry and the Alberta government have committed to the same carbon neutrality targets, which makes their reflexive opposition to any policies aimed at achieving that goal deeply telling. But even here, and maybe especially here, the dreaded federal government isn't trying to 'kill' the industry. If anything, it's trying to save it from itself. That's because it's easy to imagine a post-Trump future in which demand for oil has begun to decline and the carbon intensity of fossil fuel exports is penalized [or, taken into account] by importers (like, say, the ones in Europe). If Canada's oil producers don't start preparing for the net-zero world they claim they're committed to building, they're either going to be left behind or forced to eat an ever-larger discount on their barrels. And while Alberta's government has only offered a 12 per cent tax credit on carbon capture and storage projects, Ottawa is offering 50 to 60 per cent right now. Which one is the problem again? Rather than retreating from these facts, the defenders of Canadian unity need to help Albertans better understand them. The more they cater to this jaundiced view of confederation, one in which Alberta is a perpetual victim, the more they undermine its durability. Danielle Smith and her fellow separatist enablers are telling Albertans one version of the story. It's time for the rest of us to tell them the truth before support for separation actually starts to grow.
Vancouver Sun
14-05-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Mortgage rates at 3% or lower the magic number to reignite Canada's housing market
Mortgage rates need to drop to three per cent to get Canada's housing market and homebuyers fired up again , say some industry watchers. The lowest rate for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage , preferred by many Canadian buyers and homeowners , is currently 3.74 per cent, according to an aggregating site operated by Financial Post columnist Robert McLister. 'One of the reasons that we were never really expecting a big rebound in housing into the spring was because that level of borrowing cost isn't low enough to trigger a lot of activity,' Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. That conclusion was borne out by a recent Bank of Montreal survey that said 68 per cent of prospective homebuyers indicated current borrowing rates remain a stumbling block for people wanting to purchase a home. Nearly 40 per cent said rates needed to fall to three per cent or lower before they would purchase or refinance a home. 'Three per cent mortgage rates is a level that would actually make sense … from an affordability perspective, even from an investment perspective, but at four per cent borrowing costs, things are still very stretched and don't make a whole lot of sense for a lot of people,' Kavcic said. Andy Hill, a mortgage broker and the cofounder of a mortgage aggregator site, said that a mortgage rate at three per cent or lower is the magic number for some people. 'The real estate market will ignite, we will start to see a lot more transactions, when we have three per cent,' he said. 'We're slowly getting there, but the volatility recently (of tariffs) has added uncertainty to the mix.' Hill said past expectations and the feeling of homebuyers that they want to live more frugally have caused them to react negatively to rates of four per cent and up. Plus, wannabe homeowners don't have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to what they are comfortable paying, he said. For example, 67 per cent of Canadians said the most they were comfortable paying for housing was $1,749 each month, according to a survey by at the end of last year. Furthermore, 42 per cent of respondents who earned at least $100,000 a year said they couldn't afford mortgage payments that were higher than the average amount. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said that the average monthly mortgage payment is $1,829. That means many people's options are limited in the current housing climate, where the average price in Canada was $678,331, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association . Hill said the average total mortgage most Canadians are comfortable carrying is in the range of $350,000, typically over 25 years, though a 30-year amortization, which helps reduce monthly payments, comes out to roughly $1,780 a month at current borrowing rates. But that payment won't fly with many, depending on what part of the country a person is looking to buy in, he said. The average starter home costs $351,000 in Canada, but it costs $800,000-plus in Vancouver. 'A mortgage payment with a regular down payment for a first-time homebuyer of less than 20 per cent down means they're looking at a crazy difference in terms of what they feel comfortable paying every month (and the reality),' Hill said. • Email: gmvsuhanic@ Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don't miss the business news you need to know — add to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here .
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
These are the stock market sectors poised to benefit from the Carney era
The stock market roller-coaster since U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his trade war has underscored just how much government policy can sway markets, both positively and negatively. While no one expects Prime Minister Mark Carney's new Liberal government to be nearly as volatile as Trump's, a host of campaign promises will soon evolve into policy and budget decisions that may give certain industries a boost. Here, the Financial Post gives investors a sense of which sectors stand to gain the most under the Carney government. Financial companies are the single largest weighted sector on the S&P/TSX Composite Index, comprising about 30 per cent of the index. The performance of Canada's big banks is driven by several factors, including the overall health of the economy, interest rates and inflation. More broadly, the big swing factor for banks through an economic cycle is provisioning for credit losses, said Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel Inc. 'As the macro environment deteriorates, they have to proactively provision for the anticipation of people defaulting on loans,' said Madden. 'To the extent the Liberal platform is pro-growth and has fiscal stimulus in it via targeted spending and broad-based middle-class tax cuts, this is going to put money back in people's pockets and should lower the bank's provision for credit losses to the benefit of their earnings.' A big category for banks is mortgage lending, which has been pretty tepid lately given affordability challenges and high interest rates, said Madden. 'Some of the Liberal campaign and platform is focused on trying to solve the housing crisis. For instance, eliminating HST on new construction,' said Madden. 'To the extent that restokes demand for housing and new home building, that should benefit the banks via demand for mortgages.' Carney pledged to 'build, baby, build' in his election night victory speech, and during the campaign promised to create a $5-billion Trade Diversification Corridor Fund to diversify trade away from the U.S. and 'accelerate nation-building projects at ports, railroads, inland terminals, airports and highways.' The Liberals have also promised to double Canada's current rate of residential construction over the next decade to reach 500,000 homes per year through a new federal entity called Build Canada Homes, which aims to build affordable housing at scale and provide financing to budget-minded homebuilders. If these policies come to fruition, it will create an overall demand for infrastructure and construction, said Graham Priest, investment advisor at BlueShore Wealth and portfolio manager at Aviso Wealth. 'If you're looking at new neighbourhoods, new roads, things along those lines, you've got the infrastructure that's being put in place for those homes and neighbourhoods. You've got increased demand for lumber and all sorts of different resources,' said Priest. Madden said he sees a broad opportunity for large-scale infrastructure development, which could advantage such firms as Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., Carney' s former employer and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world, as well as private equity and investment firms that have a history of co-investing in public–private partnership projects such as KKR & Co. Inc. and TPG Inc. 'The Liberal government has this agenda to leverage government investments, build critical economic and social infrastructure, but also mobilize some private capital to help shoulder some of the costs,' said Madden. Madden and Priest also said design, engineering and construction companies such as WSP Global Inc., AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., Stantec Inc. and Aecon Group Inc. could be involved in large-scale infrastructure projects. The Liberals have promised to make Canada a 'leading energy superpower' by fast-tracking energy projects, investing in critical minerals and ensuring Canada's energy security, including building an east-west electricity grid. While Carney may be less 'antagonistic' toward the traditional energy sector than the previous government, his plan focuses more on investing in renewable energy and electrification technologies, said Chris McHaney, executive vice-president of investment management and strategy at Global X Investments Canada Inc. 'We have a lot of commodities. To build out electrification and alternative sources of energy, you still need some of those base metals, like copper. I think that's where we're going to see a lot of the investment over the next few years in Canada,' said McHaney. A focus on mining critical minerals could benefit global giants such as Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group Ltd. 'There are a lot of Canadian companies in the copper sector as well. We're thinking about other metals, too, like lithium, for example. Battery technology and the metals that go into that could also benefit, but that is more of a global play in terms of the companies that are out there.' Spending on clean energy and renewable energy could benefit companies such as Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P., Northland Power Inc. and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., said Priest. 'The resource sector, LNG and oil and gas should both do well. You'd be looking at some expansion of traditional energy and then also clean energy,' he said. The Liberals have promised to end 'chronic lapsing of defence spending' by creating a dedicated defence capital account and investing in equipment and infrastructure for the Canadian Armed Forces. 'Good, because we've got a rowdy neighbour threatening our sovereignty and we've been shirking our commitment to our NATO allies for years and years and years,' said Madden. The Liberals indicated they plan to modernize procurement legislation and 'prioritize domestic manufacturing and supply chains,' including sourcing Canadian steel and aluminum. They also plan to partner with 'allies' to procure the next generation of aircraft. Canada has a small defence technology and aerospace sector — though Canadian startups are attracting increasing interest from global investors. While jet manufacturer Bombardier Inc. mostly focuses on civilian aircraft and private aviation, its defence business is growing. The company established Bombardier Defense in 2022, and the division aims to reach revenues of $1 billion to $1.5 billion by 2030 as a 'key pillar' of its expansion strategy. 'You would imagine that Canada would likely, to the extent they're beefing up their aircraft fleet, try and spend those dollars in Canada, and Bombardier is really the only team in town for aircraft manufacturing in Canada,' said Madden. There's a saying that the stock market is not the economy — and markets treated Carney's win as 'largely a status quo type of election,' said McHaney. Government policies can take years to get baked into the economy, and we'll have to see which policies are pushed through and how they take shape, he said. In the short term, uncertainty around tariffs is likely to steer the direction of the economy and stock market. 'U.S. trade policy and U.S. relations are probably going to dominate the impact on Canada's economy overall, for the next short while at least,' said McHaney. Why BCE Inc. was forced to cut its dividend and what it means for investors Ask yourself as an investor: What would Buffett do? Political leadership and policies do matter, said Madden, but Canada and the U.S. are capitalist economies that are dynamic, innovative and adaptive to whatever comes their way. 'Good companies adapt to whatever the government of the day is doing, and they find ways to grow amidst other headwinds or tailwinds,' said Madden. • Email: jswitzer@ Sign in to access your portfolio
Calgary Herald
12-05-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Canadian business leaders say trade diversification should be Ottawa's top priority: Léger poll
Article content Canadian business leaders are in the throes of major economic uncertainty and want the federal government to prioritize its approach to foreign and domestic trade, according to the latest Léger survey conducted exclusively for Financial Post. Article content The senior business leaders surveyed identified trade diversification outside of the U.S. as the top priority for the government (36 per cent of respondents), followed by reducing interprovincial trade barriers (33 per cent) and agenda items like tax reforms and relief (29 per cent). Article content Article content Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Léger's Central Canada operations, said Canadian businesses could be hoping these measures boost productivity and 'take the edge off' a potential recession. The data also reflected how Canadian businesses have changed their views of the U.S. as a reliable trading partner, Enns said. Article content Article content The poll findings revealed 86 per cent of senior business leaders were concerned about inflation and 87 per cent about a potential recession — high numbers, but not significantly different from Léger's last poll, which was conducted in March. Article content Canadian businesses are in 'a bit of a holding pattern,' said Enns. 'There's just really no consensus around where things are going to go.' Article content They're still taking, or considering taking, steps to manage their costs, such as cutting back on spending (68 per cent), buying or investing more in Canada (64 per cent) and looking for alternatives to American suppliers and clients (63 per cent). Article content Article content There was an increase in those considering or actually postponing new hirings (58 per cent, compared to 54 per cent in March) and laying off existing staff (36 per cent compared to 28 per cent). The May poll also said 42 per cent of business leaders were looking at reducing or had reduced or re-evaluated employee benefits and compensation packages. Article content Article content 'The uncertainty for businesses is really challenging from an operational standpoint,' said Enns, adding that these measures don't bode well for Canadians looking for work right now. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9 per cent in April, returning to November's high, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian businesses in ‘a bit of a holding pattern' amid trade war, recession fears: Léger poll
Canadian business leaders are in the throes of major economic uncertainty and want the federal government to prioritize its approach to foreign and domestic trade, according to the latest Léger survey conducted exclusively for Financial Post. The senior business leaders surveyed identified trade diversification outside of the U.S. as the top priority for the government (36 per cent of respondents), followed by reducing interprovincial trade barriers (33 per cent) and agenda items like tax reforms and relief (29 per cent). Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Léger's Central Canada operations, said Canadian businesses could be hoping these measures boost productivity and 'take the edge off' a potential recession. The data also reflected how Canadian businesses have changed their views of the U.S. as a reliable trading partner, Enns said. The poll findings revealed 86 per cent of senior business leaders were concerned about inflation and 87 per cent about a potential recession — high numbers, but not significantly different from Léger's last poll, which was conducted in March. Canadian businesses are in 'a bit of a holding pattern,' said Enns. 'There's just really no consensus around where things are going to go.' They're still taking, or considering taking, steps to manage their costs, such as cutting back on spending (68 per cent), buying or investing more in Canada (64 per cent) and looking for alternatives to American suppliers and clients (63 per cent). There was an increase in those considering or actually postponing new hirings (58 per cent, compared to 54 per cent in March) and laying off existing staff (36 per cent compared to 28 per cent). The May poll also said 42 per cent of business leaders were looking at reducing or had reduced or re-evaluated employee benefits and compensation packages. 'The uncertainty for businesses is really challenging from an operational standpoint,' said Enns, adding that these measures don't bode well for Canadians looking for work right now. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9 per cent in April, returning to November's high, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada. The Léger poll said 38 per cent of senior business leaders had no idea what will happen with U.S. tariffs imposed on Canada. Another 23 per cent said they expected the U.S. to remove all, or nearly all, tariffs on Canada in the coming weeks, while 19 per cent said they believed tariffs could remain in place for a year or more. Seventeen per cent felt even more tariffs could be coming. However, Enns thinks most business leaders are 'cautiously optimistic' about the new government. More than half of business leaders (55 per cent) said they trusted Prime Minister Mark Carney to manage the Canada–U.S. relationship and defend the country against the political and financial decisions of U.S. President Donald Trump. 'Mr. Carney's resume with managing the economic crisis in 2008–2009, as well as his pedigree in terms of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, probably provided a greater measure of comfort,' Enns said. 'And I would also say that, for business leaders, where certainty and stability is really critical for operations, Mr. Carney might have presented a more stable transition from the Trudeau government.' About 63 per cent of senior business leaders reported satisfaction with the election outcome. What's in the U.S.-U.K. trade deal? Canada's trade deficit narrows to $506 million That said, Enns noted only 55 per cent of business leaders in Western Canada were satisfied with the election results (compared to over 70 per cent of respondents in Eastern Canada), pointing to strong dissatisfaction from Albertans who want more progress made on Canada's energy sector. The survey was conducted between Apr. 29 and May 5 among 201 members of the LEO Decision panel, a proprietary group of Canadian business leaders, established by Léger in collaboration with HEC Montreal. • Email: slouis@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
