Latest news with #Finlandization
Asia Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
Taiwan in 2025: a proposal to build peace, not walls
In an increasingly fragmented world, one of the most consequential trilateral relationships remains that among the People's Republic of China, the United States and Taiwan. In a year of political transition in both Taiwan and the United States – and with China facing deep economic and generational shifts – the stakes for regional peace are rising. Yet this is not just about three actors. The strategic future of East Asia – especially for US allies including Japan and South Korea – is closely tied to stability across the Taiwan Strait. A military crisis would not only trigger devastating economic fallout but also fracture the Indo-Pacific order. It is time to think beyond deterrence and toward a framework for peacebuilding. That means rejecting 'Finlandization' – the idea that Taiwan must remain politically neutral or muted in the face of external pressure – and instead embracing a cooperative trilateral structure that empowers Taiwan as a responsible stakeholder, not a geopolitical pawn. In fact, Taiwan is already taking steps to avoid Finlandization. Despite mounting pressure, it has repeatedly emphasized its willingness to engage Beijing in dialogue. It has pursued humanitarian, trade and cultural exchanges as a form of soft diplomacy, even amid growing military tension. The island's vibrant civil society and outward-looking young people – many of whom admire both American values and Chinese heritage – represent an untapped potential for cross-strait healing. Yet efforts at institutionalized peace are stalled. American sociologist Peter B. Evans warned two decades ago that regional frameworks lacked clear objectives, shared visions and strong political support. That remains true today. Domestic politics dominates national agendas. The US and Taiwan are entering turbulent election cycles. China, while projecting strength, is contending with demographic decline and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are emerging as quiet stabilizers. Tokyo has openly stated that Taiwan's security is linked to Japan's own national interests. Seoul, traditionally cautious, is now recalibrating its regional posture given tensions with North Korea and greater integration into the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Both countries would be drawn into any regional conflict. Their alignment with peace and dialogue gives the trilateral effort broader credibility – and urgency. Martin Luther King Jr. once wrote, 'One of the great liabilities of history is that all too many people fail to remain awake through great periods of social change.' In 2025, we cannot afford to sleepwalk into conflict. This year marks 25 years since Taiwan's first democratic transition – proof that its democracy is not a phase but a core identity. The APEC summit upcoming in November, focused on innovation and inclusive recovery, offers a symbolic chance to reframe Taiwan not as a flashpoint but as a bridge. That's why I propose a bold yet practical initiative: the creation of a PRC-US-ROC Education Foundation – a trilateral intergovernmental platform for cultural and academic exchange. This foundation would: offer government-endorsed scholarships and tuition waivers for students from all three places; facilitate joint research on climate change, AI governance, health crises and social resilience; and sponsor regular forums for youth, academics, and civil society leaders to foster trust and dialogue Rather than treating Taiwan solely as a military liability or ideological flashpoint, this initiative would center the island as a platform for regional innovation and cooperation. Historically, education and cultural exchange have softened hard geopolitical divides. This is not idealism – it is a tested path to mutual understanding. China, for its part, could use such a platform to show that it is serious about peaceful development and benevolent leadership. Reviving the traditional concept of Tianxia wei gong – the idea that the world belongs to all – could offer a powerful counter-narrative to rising fears of Chinese authoritarianism. The US must also do more than deter – it must inspire. That means investing in diplomatic consistency, cultural diplomacy and constructive engagement with both sides of the Strait. At the same time, Taiwan must continue charting its own course, engaging both powers while standing firm on its democratic values. Japan and South Korea could act as regional partners or observers in this education foundation. Their involvement would send a signal: Peace in the Taiwan Strait is not a bilateral or trilateral issue alone, but one of regional and global significance. Their cultural institutions and education ministries are already deeply respected across East Asia – why not put that soft power to work for peace? Most importantly, Taiwan must not be turned into a 21st-century Berlin Wall dividing East and West. Its success as a democracy and technology hub should be seen not as a threat but as a contribution to a more pluralistic Asia. The future of peace in the Taiwan Strait cannot be dictated. It must be built—deliberately, multilaterally, and creatively. If PRC, U.S., and ROC leaderships can think beyond zero-sum logic, they may yet define a shared vision: one that prioritizes education over escalation, empathy over fear, and institutions over instability. Yujing Shentu PhD (yujing@ is an independent scholar and writer focused on digital politics, international political economy and US-China strategic competition. She has a background in policy analysis and economic strategy.
New York Times
29-04-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
3 Takeaways From The Times's Interview With Finland's President
President Alexander Stubb of Finland has become a surprise player in President Trump's pursuit of an agreement to end Russia's war against Ukraine. He golfed with Mr. Trump in Palm Beach last month, using his borderline-pro skills to help the president win a tournament and his time on the course to share his views on Russia and Ukraine. He sat next to Mr. Trump at Pope Francis' funeral in Vatican City this weekend, after the U.S. president met in St. Peter's Basilica with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, someone Mr. Stubb speaks to regularly. Perhaps more than any other country, Finland can empathize with the peril of Ukraine's position in peace talks. In the 1940s, the Finns were forced to give up land to the Kremlin, agree to neutrality and accept limits on their military — the same demands Russia is making of Ukraine. Finland operated under those strictures for almost half a century. Mr. Stubb sat with The New York Times in the city of Hameenlinna, Finland, on Sunday. Here are some key takeaways: Ukraine Must Avoid 'Finlandization' Mr. Stubb rejected suggestions that Ukraine submit to what political scientists call 'Finlandization' — a smaller country, despite retaining its independence and domestic political system, being forced to cede some of its autonomy to a more powerful neighbor. He emphasized how the arrangement eroded Helsinki's sovereignty and held back the country for decades, as Finns wanted to be with the West. 'I would never bestow upon another state the predicament of a larger player determining some of the key elements of who you are as a country,' he said. The Finnish president noted that nationhood consists of land, sovereignty and independence, and Finland lost control over two of the three, retaining only its independence. He wants Ukraine to have a better fate. 'The truth is that, in a war, there are never winners — there are only losers,' Mr. Stubb said. 'And the question is, how much do you lose? And we are trying to minimize the damage for Ukraine.' Trump Is Running Out of Patience Having seen Mr. Trump in Vatican City, the Finnish president reiterated what he had said after golfing with the American leader last month: Mr. Trump is getting fed up. Mr. Trump, who promised on the campaign trail last year to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in a day, has held phone calls with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and sent his envoys to negotiate a deal. But the Kremlin has given little, as Russian forces have continued to advance on the battlefield. 'The president is running out of patience, and we've now seen statements which are quite tough on Putin and Russia,' Mr. Stubb said. 'So I just hope the Kremlin understands that you don't play with President Trump.' He said Mr. Trump's diminished patience could 'actually then move things in the right direction' by forcing Russia to stop delaying. The Finnish leader left Vatican City on Saturday a 'tad more optimistic' about the prospects for a peace deal. He says he believes that 'with a little bit of creative writing,' wording can be found to stop the killing in Ukraine, even reflecting differences such as the U.S. willingness to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the European refusal, in separate annexes. At some point, he added, Ukraine and Russia will need to negotiate directly. Putin Understands Only Power Mr. Stubb said the most important next step to move the process along was for the United States and its allies to step up pressure on Mr. Putin. So far, he is stringing Washington along, Mr. Stubb warned, noting that the Russian leader would 'play a cat-and-mouse game to the bitter end.' 'Everyone has to understand that the only thing that Putin understands is power,' Mr. Stubb said. 'I mean, there's a reason why Finland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe, and the reason is not Sweden.' Russia shares an 835-mile border with Finland, and by Mr. Stubb's count, has fought 30 wars or skirmishes against the Finns since the 1300s. 'Right now, politically, the key is to maximize the pressure on Putin,' he said.
Bloomberg
24-03-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Russia and the US Both Want to Finlandize the World
As president of the United States, Joe Biden kept using a peculiar phrase that showed two of the many ways in which he was a foil for his successor, Donald Trump: The 46th president was a bad communicator but a good geopolitical strategist; the 47th is the opposite. Over and over again, Biden all but gloated that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted 'the Finlandization of NATO' but instead got 'the NATOization of Finland.' Finlandization and NATOization each have five syllables and mean little to ordinary Americans, who might have pictured generals and admirals spending more time in the sauna. You won't hear such stilted oratory from Trump, who prefers punchy monosyllabic Anglo-Saxon words. As a way of communicating grand strategy to voters, Biden's phrase failed.
