Latest news with #FitchSolutions
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bangladesh Taka Will Extend Slide on Election, Tariffs, BMI Says
The Bangladesh taka is set to extend this year's decline due to potential political instability in the South Asian country and the increase in US tariffs, according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. The currency is forecast to average 125 per dollar over the year as a whole, said Sayaka Shiba, senior country risk analyst at the research firm in Singapore. That compares to an average of 115.35 during 2024 and Tuesday's close of 121.86, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Malay Mail
20-05-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Fitch Solutions unit trims Malaysia's 2025 GDP forecast as global risks rise
KUALA LUMPUR, May 20 — BMI has revised its forecast for Malaysia's economic growth in 2025 to 4.2 per cent, down from an earlier projection of 5.0 per cent. The research firm, part of Fitch Solutions, said the slowdown reflected mounting pressure on exports as a result of US tariffs and cooling investment momentum. The revised figure also falls below the Malaysian government's target of 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent for the year. Official data released on May 16 showed that GDP grew 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, down from 4.9 per cent in the final quarter of 2024. In its report today, BMI said Malaysia's export performance will deteriorate in the months ahead, with recent gains unlikely to be sustained. Exports of electronic and electrical products to the United States spiked in February and March, but the report attributed this to companies rushing orders ahead of new US tariffs. BMI noted that Malaysia remains highly exposed to the US semiconductor market, which made up nearly 20 per cent of its American-bound exports in 2024. 'We expect this trend to persist over the coming quarters, significantly weakening a tailwind that had propelled Malaysia's growth in recent years,' the research firm said. BMI further warned that investment activity, particularly in the construction sector, is losing steam after a strong run in 2024. Growth in construction work slowed from 23.1 per cent in the final quarter of last year to 16.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. BMI linked the decline to growing investor caution amid global uncertainty and 'fickle' policymaking in the United States under President Donald Trump. With external and investment-driven growth likely to fade, BMI said domestic demand will play an increasingly central role in Malaysia's economic performance this year.
Business Recorder
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil set for second weekly rise on trade war truce
BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain due to easing US-China trade tensions though a potential return of Iranian supply limited price gains. Brent crude futures dipped 1 cent to $64.52 a barrel by 0326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 2 cents to $61.64. Both contracts fell more than 2% in the previous session following a selloff due to the rising prospect of an Iranian nuclear deal. President Donald Trump said the US was nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, with Tehran 'sort of' agreeing to its terms. However, a source familiar with the talks said there were still issues to resolve. ING analysts wrote in a note that a nuclear deal lifting sanctions would ease supply risk, allowing Iran to increase oil output and find more willing buyers for its oil. That could result in additional supply of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), they said. Despite the potential supply pressure, both Brent and WTI were up 1% so far this week, after a surge earlier in the week. Sentiment got a boost after the US and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers and economies, agreed to a 90-day pause on their trade war during which both sides would sharply lower trade duties. The hefty reciprocal Sino-US tariffs had raised fears of a sharp blow to global growth and oil demand. Analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, maintained their forecasts for Brent to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $71 per barrel in 2026, down from 2024's $80 per barrel, citing the uncertainty of trade policy on the price outlook. Crude oil climbs more than $1 on tariff cuts, outlook 'While the 90-day cooling off period leaves the door open for additional progress on lowering trade barriers on both sides, the uncertainty on longer-term trade policy will limit price upside,' the analysts said in a research report. Adding to market concerns was an expected surplus. The International Energy Agency on Thursday hiked its 2025 global supply growth forecast by 380,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members unwind output cuts. The IEA also projected a surplus for next year, despite a minor upward revision of its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 20,000 bpd. Investors were also watching for signs of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could bolster the economy and oil demand. Earlier this week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a bigger-than-expected jump in crude stockpiles, heightening demand concerns in the world's biggest oil consumer.
Arab News
16-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Oil Updates — crude set for 2nd weekly rise on trade war truce
BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain due to easing US-China trade tensions though a potential return of Iranian supply limited price gains. Brent crude futures dipped 1 cent to $64.52 a barrel by 6:26 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 2 cents to $61.64. Both contracts fell more than 2 percent in the previous session following a selloff due to the rising prospect of an Iranian nuclear deal. President Donald Trump said the US was nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, with Tehran 'sort of' agreeing to its terms. However, a source familiar with the talks said there were still issues to resolve. ING analysts wrote in a note that a nuclear deal lifting sanctions would ease supply risk, allowing Iran to increase oil output and find more willing buyers for its oil. That could result in additional supply of around 400,000 barrels per day, they said. Despite the potential supply pressure, both Brent and WTI were up 1 percent so far this week, after a surge earlier in the week. Sentiment got a boost after the US and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers and economies, agreed to a 90-day pause on their trade war during which both sides would sharply lower trade duties. The hefty reciprocal Sino-US tariffs had raised fears of a sharp blow to global growth and oil demand. Analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, maintained their forecasts for Brent to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $71 per barrel in 2026, down from 2024's $80 per barrel, citing the uncertainty of trade policy on the price outlook. 'While the 90-day cooling off period leaves the door open for additional progress on lowering trade barriers on both sides, the uncertainty on longer-term trade policy will limit price upside,' the analysts said in a research report. Adding to market concerns was an expected surplus. The International Energy Agency on Thursday hiked its 2025 global supply growth forecast by 380,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members unwind output cuts. The IEA also projected a surplus for next year, despite a minor upward revision of its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 20,000 bpd. Investors were also watching for signs of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could bolster the economy and oil demand. Earlier this week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a bigger-than-expected jump in crude stockpiles, heightening demand concerns in the world's biggest oil consumer.
New Straits Times
12-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Malaysia's investment growth to ease, BMI warns
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's strong investment momentum in recent years is likely to ease, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. Signaling a more subdued outlook, the latest Business Tendency Survey showed the confidence indicator among manufacturers slipping to just 0.3 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2025—the lowest level recorded in 18 months. The decline points to growing business caution amid expectations of a more challenging economic environment. "This aligns with our view that the rapid growth in investment in recent years is not likely to continue, a key reason underpinning the downward revision to our 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 4.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent," it said. The firm noted that Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to hold the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3.0 per cent was in line with what it expected. It also said that the latest policy statement was relatively similar to the last, particularly with respect to forward guidance. "Among others, the central bank attributed downside risks to growth to "weaker sentiment amid higher uncertainties affecting spending and investments", a phrase notably absent from previous statements. We believe this refers to US tariff policy. "We continue to expect the bank to leave the OPR on hold at 3.0 per cent through 2025." Looking ahead, the firm expects oil prices to average US$68 per barrel in 2025, down from US$76 per barrel previously, which will keep a lid on headline inflation. It added that slowing economic growth in the US and China will weigh on domestic consumption. "These inform our view that inflation will probably average 2.1 per cent in 2025, down from 2.4 per cent previously. However, the impact of the RON95 subsidy rationalisation plan, details of which remain scant, could pose upside risks to this view."
