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Express Tribune
2 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Chinese investment rattles exporters
Such partnerships could align with the broader motives of CPEC, the multibillion-dollar infrastructure project aimed at integrating Pakistan more deeply into regional trade routes. photo: file Domestic textile exporters and industry analysts have described the arrival of a $150 million Chinese garment manufacturing project in Punjab as both a wake-up call and an opportunity, coming just days after the Trump administration cut US tariffs on Pakistani goods to 19%, the lowest in South Asia. "This is the reality of modern trade," said Shahid Khan, General Manager of a large garment unit in Faisalabad. "If a Chinese company can bring in cutting-edge machinery, secure US buyers, and deliver on time, they will dominate. The only way for us to counter this is to either match their efficiency or partner with them through joint ventures." While the investment promises jobs, export revenue, and technology transfer, it also raises strategic questions. Much of the capital and eventual profits will flow back to China, given the ownership structure. Domestic textile exporters privately admit they see this as both a threat and a wake-up call. Some industry leaders, however, warn against viewing the Chinese arrival purely as a threat. "We need to move away from the old habit of finding excuses," said Imran Yousaf, a home textiles exporter. "Yes, a big Chinese player can take market share, but they can also be a partner. If Bangladesh can grow exports with higher tariffs, why can't we with the lowest tariff in the region?" Economists believe the Chinese move is driven not just by Pakistan's low labour cost, but also by the need to bypass higher US tariffs on China-made goods. "Producing in Pakistan now makes perfect sense for Chinese manufacturers," said Farah Iqbal, a Lahore-based trade economist. "They get a lower tariff rate into the US market, local government incentives, and proximity to cotton-producing regions. For Pakistan, it's an investment inflow, but the challenge is ensuring that local companies also grow and do not get sidelined." For domestic producers, the tariff change still represents a unique opportunity, if they can act fast. Pakistan's 19% rate undercuts India's 25%, and is slightly better than Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, all at 20%. Last fiscal year, Pakistan exported over $6 billion worth of goods to the US, dominated by textiles. Analysts project shipments could reach $7 billion in FY26 if the sector leverages its cost advantage. But operational hurdles remain. Energy costs for Pakistani mills are among the highest in the region, and cotton shortages are acute. According to the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, Pakistan's cotton production in 2025/26 is forecast at just 5.5 million bales, far less than the 15 million bales needed by the textile industry. This forces mills to rely on expensive imports. "If the government reduces duties on imported cotton and polyester fibre, we could operate at full capacity," said Waheed Abbas, a spinning mill owner. "Otherwise, Chinese units in SEZs with better incentives will be the only ones expanding exports to the US." Investment analysts point out that the Chinese company's backing from provincial authorities, combined with its in-house access to global buyers, could see it meeting its production and export targets on schedule. "Local firms often face delays in getting permissions or financing," said Mohsin Ali, an investment adviser. "This group's entry shows how quickly things can move when capital, buyers, and government facilitation come together." Just days after the tariff cut, Challenge Fashion Pvt Ltd announced it will build one of the most advanced garment manufacturing facilities in the country. The project, to be set up in a proposed Special Economic Zone in Punjab, will cover 100 acres and is expected to begin operations within 12 months. It will employ around 25,000 workers, produce up to 8 million garments per month, and supply leading American apparel brands directly from Pakistan. Provincial officials have confirmed the company will enjoy export-based concessions under the SEZ framework. "We are facilitating this investment with infrastructure, security, and fast-track approvals," said a senior Punjab government representative. "It is part of our strategy to attract large-scale export-oriented industries, especially in light of Pakistan's improved tariff position in the US market." Such partnerships could align with the broader motives of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the multibillion-dollar infrastructure project aimed at integrating Pakistan more deeply into regional trade routes. Joint ventures could allow Pakistani firms to gain access to foreign technology, investment, and global distribution networks without losing local ownership completely. Industry pundits said that the next 18 months will be decisive for Pakistan's textile sector. With the US tariff at 19%, the industry holds a clear cost advantage over regional competitors. Converting this into higher exports will require immediate policy action including lowering energy costs, ensuring steady raw material supplies, speeding up tax refunds, and improving port logistics. The recent entry of a Chinese textile group with a $150 million investment in Punjab signals that international players are already eyeing Pakistan as a competitive base for exports to the US and EU. If local manufacturers receive the same level of policy support, they too can seize this moment to expand market share and strengthen Pakistan's position in the global textile supply chain, they added.
Straits Times
08-05-2025
- Climate
- Straits Times
US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields. CONTEXT The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed. KEY QUOTES "Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said. "The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects." REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Business Standard
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
USDA estimates a 26% spike in India's Sugar output on monsoon effect
Robust gains are expected in India's Sugar output. The United States Department of Agriculture or USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects India's sugar production to reach 35 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, reflecting a 26% spike from the revised estimate of the current year. This production forecast is attributed to the southwest monsoon received in key sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25, alongside an expected recovery in planted area for MY 2025/26. The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 MMT (raw value) due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation. Sugar consumption for the upcoming year is anticipated to reach 31 MMT, which is 5 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25, driven by sustained growth from the food service sector. Post expects total raw and refined sugar exports and ending stocks to increase in the outyear based on the projected increase in production.
Axios
26-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Key commodity exports plunge as Trump's trade war bites
Sales to China of key commodities, like soybeans and pork, are plunging as the trade war begins to impact the domestic economy. Why it matters: U.S. farmers export more than $176 billion in agricultural products annually — almost 10% of which is just soybean and pork shipments to China. Losing even a fraction of those exports for the long term could be economically devastating. By the numbers: In the week of April 11-17, net soybean sales were down 50% week over week and down 25% versus the four-week average, per data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service released Thursday. Net pork sales were down 72% week on week and 82% versus the four-week average, the USDA said. What they're saying: "This is directly related to the tariff situation. There's no doubt about it, there's not some other magic behind-the-scenes thing going on," Rob Dongoski, global lead for food and agribusiness at consultancy Kearney, tells Axios. The big picture: In his first term, President Trump bailed out farmers when 2018 tariffs on China impacted exports. Those bailouts, collectively, ended up being so large that they almost equaled the tariff revenue generated. This trade war is orders of magnitude larger than the last one, but there's been no explicit relief for farmers — yet. Between the lines: "This already looks worse than 2018," American Soybean Association economist Jacquie Holland tells Axios. "That's because there's also a trade spat with Canada, a major supplier of potash which is a really key input for soybean production. "Farmers are going to feel the pain of this at so many points on the supply chain, not just from the prices that they receive." The intrigue: If exports are plunging, the surplus has to go somewhere, but the obvious option — more domestic consumption — may not be much of a solution. "To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States," President Trump wrote on Truth Social in March. But pork demand in the U.S. has been challenging in recent years, meaning there's no ready consumer safety valve. (International demand has been falling as well — and ironically, China was one of the few bright spots for growth before the tariffs hit.) On the soybean side, Holland said there are calls for the EPA to increase biodiesel usage requirements, which she said could stabilize the market but wouldn't fully replace lost demand. The bottom line: Spring planting season is in full swing now, but it's already looking like a rough year for farmers.
Zawya
18-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
South Africa: The agricultural sector can overcome the impact of potential Agoa exit
The hostile disposition of United States' (US) President Donald Trump toward South Africa raises serious concerns about the possible exclusion of South Africa as a beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set for renewal in 2025. With South Africa consistently ranking as the top Agoa user, as well as the number one African agricultural exporter under AGOA, we look at the possible ramifications for agriculture. A law implemented in 2000 by the US, Agoa, establishes a unilateral trade preference programme, allowing certain exports from South Africa and many other eligible sub-Saharan African countries to enter the US market, duty-free. Under Agoa, two-thirds of South Africa's agricultural exports to the US benefit from tariff-free treatment. Since its inception, South Africa has exported over $7bn (R125bn) worth of agricultural products to the US. This is according to a November 2023 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service report, entitled "AGOA Supports South African Agriculture'. Impact of a potential Agoa loss A November 2023 report published by the Brookings Institution, a non-profit organisation based in the US, detailed the potential impact of an Agoa exit for South Africa. The report found that the impact of a loss of preferential market access under Agoa on exports and gross domestic product (GDP) would be small. Their model estimated that, at worst, South Africa's total exports to the US would fall by about 2.7%, with the biggest losses felt by the food and beverages, transport equipment, and the fruit and vegetable sectors. Yet, in total, a loss of AgoaA benefits would lead to a GDP decline of just 0.06%, the paper argued. Agriculture would constitute just a percentage of that. Nonetheless, whilst the impact as a percentage of total GDP might not be excruciatingly large, it would affect provinces where agricultural exports are a prominent source of income. The Western Cape is by far the province that benefits most from Agoa trade, according to figures from the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC). Between 2018 and 2022, the Western Cape accounted for 49% of South Africa's overall agricultural exports to the US in terms of value. Mpumalanga's agricultural sector is AGOA's second-largest beneficiary, accounting for at least 15% of South Africa's total agricultural exports in 2022. Gauteng, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal round off the five provinces that most benefit from Agoa in terms of agriculture. Regardless, our overriding message is to keep calm and keep moving in the face of a potential threat to Agoa. We are in the same position as anybody else in the world when it comes to uncertainty around US economic relations, as demonstrated by the "liberation day" tariffs announced by President Trump. Should South Africa lose access to AGOA benefits, doing proactive groundwork should soften the blow. Potential scenarios We see three potential scenarios with regard to the future of Agoa. The viability of these scenarios is seriously challenged by the imposition of a 30% "liberation day" tariffs against all South African imports into the US, effective 5 April 2025 and the 25% imposed earlier in respect of automotive vehicles. 1. South Africa loses the preferential treatment that it currently qualifies for under Agoa, and its goods are traded with the US in the same way as those of any other country outside the AGOA agreement. If our goods are not as competitive as those of other suppliers to the US market, then we can expect a decline in the volume of our exports to the US. If they are, it's business as usual, bar the impact of liberation day tariffs. In practice, the South African producer and US importer may bear a share of the duties' costs, in which case the US consumer will remain in a net neutral position. Alternatively, the consumer could shoulder a portion too, splitting the burden three ways. 2. The US importer and the South African supplier absorb the duty, and the US consumer continues to benefit from good prices. Both the South African supplier and the US importer will be less profitable, but trade will continue, barring the impact of liberation day tariffs. Or the South African producer may choose to shoulder the entire burden in exchange for remaining competitive in the US market, yet at a cost. 3. The full duty and its inflationary effect is passed onto the US consumer. Trade continues, and the South African producer and US importer remain profitable. Yet they will lose a share of the US market. With the imposition of liberation day tariffs, this option seems unviable. Be prepared To determine the best option, modelling these different scenarios is advisable. South African suppliers should examine their sectors, understand their tariff risks and talk to their importers to negotiate deals. Regardless of which scenario plays out, the agricultural sector should diversify and explore other markets – it is always beneficial to grow the market for our goods. The basket of goods we supply to the US is broad, made up of raw materials, semi-processed goods and processed goods – finished products. Therefore, on value-added goods, this means there is a positive economic impact on South Africa, which is not the case when trading with China to who supply primarily raw materials. Citrus, fruit, vines, nuts, avocados, and beef are among South Africa's main agricultural exports to the US. Those working with these products should understand which tariffs apply to them. Liaising with importers is advisable to ensure supply chain agreements are in place, along with appropriate contractual arrangements that include exit clauses depending on how circumstances unfold. Exploring other markets With preferential market access in the US ending, South African suppliers must examine opportunities in similar markets around the world – namely, Canada (which, like the US, is in North America), the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK). South Africa has economic partnership agreements with the EU as well as with the UK, which both provide a large range of our goods with preferential market access. On our continent, most of our agricultural and other exports are value-added goods. It is therefore advisable to increase our trade with other African countries to maximise the net positive economic impact. Here, we can leverage regional agreements such as the SADC Protocol on Trade as well as the Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), enabling us to trade on preferential terms with other African states. With Trump destined to ease sanctions on Russia, it could also potentially become a workable market for the export of South African agricultural products. Should the EU follow the US (which seems unlikely in the short term), trade with Russia will be open. Additionally, with Johannesburg set to host the upcoming G20 Summit in November, we could leverage the Business 20 (B20), the official G20 dialogue forum with the global business community, potentially accessing new markets. The immediate opportunity, whether AGOA stays or goes, is to start building new relationships while still strengthening existing relationships with the US. Forging ties with the Canadian and other markets as they navigate trade wars with US may also be a wise strategy. Ultimately, agricultural exporters must safeguard their positions. Build relationships with their importers, and deal with the relevant organisational bodies for products in the US and South Africa to take a coordinated approach, so that there are viable alternate scenarios. Diversification and competitiveness are always a vital enabling mechanism.
