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Politico
11-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
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Presented by Forestry For The Future Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday! In today's edition: → DONALD TRUMP wrote a letter to the PM. → ANITA ANAND treads carefully in Kuala Lumpur. → New Democrats will pick a new leader in March. Trade war TOPSY-TURVY — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY and President DONALD TRUMP have agreed to extend negotiations to finalize a new economic and security deal. — But, but, but: If there's no deal by the revised Aug. 1 deadline, Canadian goods imported into the U.S. could face a blanket 35 percent tariff. — State of play: The two sides remain at the negotiating table, but Trump threw chaos into the mix Thursday evening. The president released a letter he wrote to the PM warning of new tariffs on Aug. 1. Futures for the major stock indexes fell on the news. The rate is higher than expected and marks an increase from the 25 percent he set on Canadian goods back in February. A White House official, granted anonymity to discuss the negotiations, told POLITICO the administration plans to impose the tariff only on goods that do not comply with the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — though the ultimate details will be up to Trump to decide. — Buzzkill: The news dropped while the PM is vacationing. The two leaders did not speak on Thursday, the Prime Minister's Office said, but officials from both sides remained in touch during the day. 'Throughout the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and businesses,' Carney said on X at 11:46 p.m. 'We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of August 1.' — Retaliation: It's unclear if Canada is also prolonging its counter-tariff threat against the U.S. to Aug. 1. The PM previously said if a deal wasn't reached by July 21, then Canada would adjust its counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum to match what the U.S. has imposed on Canada. — Moving goalposts: This is the second time the deadline has inched back. The leaders first agreed to a July 16 deadline during the G7 Leaders' Summit, but later moved that to July 21. — In lockstep: Leaders from all political stripes called for Canadians to focus on what they can control domestically. 'Conservatives stand ready to do everything we can to secure the best deal for Canada,' Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said. — F-words: British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY called Trump's letter 'flailing and factually incorrect.''Other F words come to mind,' Eby said on X. 'Just one more reminder of why Canadians need to come together, to grow our economy and stand strong.' — Bone to pick: Trump justified the tariff increase by pointing to fentanyl trafficking — even though the Americans' own data show that less than 0.1 percent of fentanyl seized by U.S. authorities was at the Canada-U.S. also railed against Canada's tariffs on U.S. dairy — which are levied only if U.S. dairy exports exceed a predetermined quota. 'Frustratingly, the U.S. has never gotten close to exceeding' the quotas, the International Dairy Foods Association said in March. — No big deal: Our colleagues in Washington report that Trump is impatient with arduous trade negotiations. 'Vietnam thought it had a preliminary deal with the U.S. to lower its tariff level substantially,' they report. 'Then, at the last minute, President Donald Trump raised the rate.' — In case you missed it: He's also threatening to slap a 50 percent tariff on Brazil. — Tariff math: Letter = deal, Trump said at the White House earlier this week. 'We can't meet with 200 countries.' → Checks out: The president's willingness to alter tariff threats on a whim has trading partners on edge. 'Other countries are watching this stuff,' HARRY BROADMAN, a former assistant U.S. trade representative in the GEORGE H.W. BUSH and BILL CLINTON administrations, told POLITICO's team. He added: 'If you're going to the negotiating table with country X, and they just saw country Y did a deal but then it was undercut, they'll say, 'Why am I spending time with you? And how do I know that what we agree here is going to be ultimately what the final deal is?'' ASIA PIVOT — ANITA ANAND is in Kuala Lumpur today with two big fish to fry, after a speed-dating Thursday of meetings at the 10-country ASEAN summit. — Today's dance card: Meetings with U.S. Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO and Chinese foreign minister WANG YI. — Eyes wide open: Playbook reached VINA NADJIBULLA at the KL summit for her take on the Wang-Anand tête-à-tête. Nadjibulla is the vice president of research and strategy for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Job one for Anand, she said, is to build on Carney's June 5 telephone call with Chinese Premier LI QIANG. 'What China wants — and we've seen this in their discussion with Australia — is cooperation on AI, cooperation on technology,' said Nadjibulla. 'There are serious national security and economic security concerns.' Canada is aligned with the Trump administration's long-standing concerns about China's state-driven trading and security posture, especially around technology, said Nadjibulla. Even as Canadians increasingly view the U.S. as a less reliable ally, any search for new partners comes with guardrails: 'China is not an alternative when it comes to those critical sectors,' she said. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Conservative coffers. Down: Public service morale. For your radar ORANGE JUICE — Federal New Democrats will have a new leader by the end of March. — It's a daunting task: The winner will have to heal internal rifts and bring the party back from electoral collapse. The federal council held a four-hour, closed-door meeting on Thursday to hash out the details. Out of it, Playbook has confirmed: — Entry fee: $100,000. — Length of the race: Six months, starting in September. — Give and take: The decisions follow multiple meetings and months of infighting. The grassroots arm of the party pushed for a C$50,000 entry, hoping to draw in everyday Canadians, while giving them time to raise funds. The party brass got the higher C$100,000 entry fee they were after, backing down from the C$150,000 floated in May. But they lost the fight over how long the race would run — they'd wanted it finished by the end of the year. — Not over yet: Other leadership race rules are TBD. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will speak to reporters at 11:30 a.m. about the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome. — Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON is meeting with his counterparts in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. He'll hold a joint media conference with P.E.I. counterpart GILLES ARSENAULT at 12:30 ET (1:30 p.m. local time) to close up the Energy and Mines Ministers' Conference. — Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will hold a joint media availability in Ottawa at 1:15 p.m. with EU industry chief STÉPHANE SÉJOURNÉ. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — The Star's ROBERT BENZIE reports on 'the most important political alliance in the country' — that is, between the PM and Premier DOUG FORD, forged over poached eggs and tea at Wally's Grill. — From a team at the Globe: A Canadian man died in ICE custody. Now, his family is searching for answers. — How is Carney going to pay for his commitments? Economist TREVOR TOMBE says there are tough choices ahead. — TANYA TALAGA writes from Moose Factory, Ontario: 'Some free advice for governments that ram through nation-building legislation without consulting the actual First Nations they will be trampling all over to mine critical minerals: go visit the communities.' — Google's global affairs president KENT WALKER talks about future AI regulation in Canada on the latest 'WONK' podcast. — 'It's a very different Stampede this year,' DEBORAH YEDLIN, the chief executive of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, told the NYT. 'There's a really high level of optimism.' — NICK MURRAY of The Canadian Press reports that Ottawa is going to reimburse auto dealers on hook for $11 million in unpaid EV rebates. LOBBY WATCH — Former Cabmin ANNE MCLELLAN is lobbying for Air Products Canada Ltd., which has received federal funding for an Edmonton-based 'Net-zero Hydrogen Energy Complex' — and hopes to 'promote hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage in Alberta.' — The Aluminium Association of Canada posted June meetings with Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Deputy Ambassador ARUN ALEXANDER, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and PATRICK HALLEY, assistant deputy minister of the Department of Finance's international trade and finance branch. — Scotiabank posted a June meeting with PAUL HALUCHA, the deputy minister for housing, infrastructure and communities. Top priority: 'Financial institutions, as it relates to housing.' PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Cabmin JOYCE MURRAY, academic MICHAEL GEIST and former MP BOBBIE SPARROW (90!). Saturday: HBD to Mississauga-Malton MP IQWINDER GAHEER, former chief electoral officer of Elections Canada JEAN-PIERRE KINGSLEY, retired Sen. SABI MARWAH, journalist MICHELE LANDSBERG, former Saskatchewan Cabmin DON MCMORRIS, Alberta lawyer KARAMVEER LALH and former MP ANDY SAVOY. Sunday: MILA MULRONEY, Crestview Strategy's WILL WUEHR and former MP NATHAN CULLEN. Spotted: Hundreds of top Liberal Party donors, noted by a report submitted to Elections Canada as attending last month's Laurier Club summer reception. MARK CARNEY and 24 members of his ministry were in the room. Movers and shakers: Lt.-Gen. JAMIE SPEISER-BLANCHET is the first woman to lead the Royal Canadian Air Force … JOHN FRAGOS is press secretary to Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE … JESSICA MAGA is Enbridge's manager of government relations … KEVIN DEAGLE joins Crestview Strategy as vice president. ANDREW BEVAN, the Liberals' most recent national campaign director and longtime senior aide, is said to be preparing to launch a new strategic advisory firm. Send Playbookers tips to canadaplaybook@ PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from MIKE BLANCHFIELD: Why Carney is turning to Asia. In other Pro headlines: — Elon Musk faces a new threat in Canada. — Heat waves endanger data centers. — Commission unveils voluntary rules for most advanced AI models. — Ireland launches second probe into TikTok data flows to China. — EU throws down gauntlet to Big Tech over artificial intelligence risks. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: Canada's first drive-in movie theater opened in July 1946 in Stoney Creek, outside of Hamilton. Admission for adults was 42 cents plus tax. Props to DARREN MAJOR, ROD PIUKKALA, JOHN PEPPER, DAVE PENNER, DARRYL DAMUDE, RAY DEL BIANCO, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, GARY ALLEN and JOHN ECKER. Bonus marks to MALCOLM MCKAY, ELIZABETH BURN, JOHN MERRIMAN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL who answered both questions. Friday's question: Which Canadian prime minister was the first to deliver a speech in the House of Commons after the original Centre Block was destroyed by a fire? Answer to canadaplaybook@
Politico
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Who wants to lead the NDP?
Presented by Forestry For The Future Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → NDP's leadership race starts with a fight over who gets in. → Advice for MARK CARNEY on Canada's 'hard power.' → FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Rome with Ukraine on the agenda. DRIVING THE DAY FAMILY FEUD — Federal New Democrats from across Canada have booked a four-hour meeting this morning to hash out leadership race rules. Already it's a messy fight between party executives and grassroots members. The party is trying to rebuild after a historic election slaughter that resulted in the NDP losing recognized party status in the House of Commons. JAGMEET SINGH stepped down after losing his seat and MP DON DAVIES was appointed interim leader. That created a rift in the NDP's seven-member caucus. — Word on the street: The names of potential contenders floating around, include International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada President ROB ASHTON, activist AVI LEWIS, former Hamilton NDP MP MATTHEW GREEN, Edmonton MP HEATHER MCPHERSON, Winnipeg MP LEAH GAZAN, Rimouski Mayor GUY CARON and Montreal Mayor VALÉRIE PLANTE. → Definitely interested: Activist YVES ENGLER says he will be running. Farmer TONY MCQUAIL wants to run so he can merge the NDP with the Greens. → Not interested: Former NDP MP CHARLIE ANGUS. → Likely over it: Former Alberta Premier RACHEL NOTLEY. — First thing's first: Before anyone can officially enter the leadership race, the party needs ground rules. The council has already met three times on this, including on Sunday. — Dog bites man: Playbook has learned several camps are pushing for rules that could give an edge to their preferred candidate. — Sticking points: Entry fees and the length of the race. — For your calendar: The leadership vote could be held as early as September. Next March is also on the table, to coincide with a possible party convention. — Grassroots unite: Reclaim Canada's NDP — a movement founded by riding associations, former MPs, candidates, staff and volunteers — penned a letter to top party officials — including National Director LUCY WATSON — ahead of today's meeting. The Reclaim-ers want an entry fee of less than C$50,000. If the fee can be paid in instalments, they'd support up to C$75,000. — Make ends meet: Sources familiar with the meetings say party execs are pushing for a C$100,000 entry fee, a high bar for lesser-known candidates who lack fundraising chops. — By comparison: The entry fee for the 2017 NDP leadership race was C$30,000. — The party needs money: New Democrats took out a loan to run their last federal election. But the NDP then lost millions in federal rebates when most of their candidates failed to win 10 percent of the vote — the threshold for partial reimbursement of campaign expenses. Those rebates helped New Democrats pay down campaign loans in the past. — Hitting reset: This week, the NDP launched a campaign review led by lawyer and former NDP candidate EMILIE TAMAN. While the party looks inside itself, McPherson offered up her own post-mortem: 'Let's be honest, the last election was a wakeup call,' she said. 'The NDP played it safe. We were neutral in a moment that demanded leadership. We stayed on the sidelines while people were asking us for solutions, and as a result we lost trust.' — Why the Dippers matter: A weak NDP has consequences for the competition. → On the hustings: New Democrats and Liberals compete for swing voters that can turn an election. When the left splits, Conservatives often benefit. → In the House: Liberals have found success partnering with the NDP on shared priorities. But New Democrats don't have committee seats — cutting them out of part of the legislative process. Trade war BETWEEN ROCKS AND A 'HARD' PLACE — A lobby group for Canadian CEOs offers blunt advice in a new report out this morning: 'Unleash energy as Canada's hard power.' The Business Council of Canada sees opportunity in vast critical mineral resources that could build next-generation weaponry, surveillance hardware and AI tech that could fuel NATO's war machine. — Key context: That's a play on 'soft power,' a label often used to describe Canada's traditional, less hawkish foreign policy that refers to the way countries use non-military force to push their policies on others. — Top of the to-do list: Canada 'should work immediately with NATO members to create a critical mineral reserve for defence technology and military purposes,' the report says. 'Doing so will require targeted federal resources to support mining in Canada.' The BCC argues that nuclear technology and uranium are also Canadian competitive advantages. — Sound familiar? MICHAEL GULLO, the council's vice president of policy, tells Playbook the BCC is teeing up a meeting with Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON. 'We see a lot of alignment between our recommendations and the federal government's objectives,' Gullo said. 'Collaboration with the private sector will be essential.' — Meeting count: Hodgson isn't shying away from taking meetings with lobbyists. His name is on 43 lobbyist reports and counting. Elsewhere in the world of trade: — 'We are a different kind of partner,' Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. KIRSTEN HILLMAN recently told The New York Times. 'This is an exercise as partners and neighbors and each other's No. 1 security partners.' Per the NYT headline: 'Does That Matter?' — 'Canada should be wary about entering into any renewal of CUSMA given that the original agreement has been flagrantly violated by the U.S.,' Hillman predecessor DEREK BURNEY writes in the National Post. 'The element of mutual trust essential to any international agreement has evaporated.' — Our colleagues in Brussels report: EU faces dilemma in tariff showdown with Trump. — And from Globe mining reporter NIALL MCGEE: Copper spikes to record on Trump's tariff threat, but quick U.S. self-sufficiency push is a pipedream. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — 10:30 a.m. Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND speaks to media from Malaysia. — 11 a.m. Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON will deliver remarks at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade. — Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome. — 1 p.m. AI Minister EVAN SOLOMON makes an announcement in Montreal. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — POLITICO's CLEA CAULCUTT and ESTHER WEBBER report from London: EMMANUEL MACRON pitches KEIR STARMER on new special relationship as leaders strike defense deals. — From the Star's ALEX BALLINGALL: Brace for layoffs, budget watchdog says. — KELLY GERALDINE MALONE of The Canadian Press reports from Washington on some Republican lawmakers who want to know what Canada is doing to curb wildfire smoke. — RAFFY BOUDJIKANIAN of CBC News notes that the PM has ordered a review of all government regulations. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE told OMNI News in an interview that he's going to 'make a comeback' to the House of Commons. On losing his seat, he said: 'I see it not as a defeat, but a delay.' — Poilievre also sat down for a friendly one-on-one in Calgary with Postmedia's RICK BELL. The party leader's take on MARK CARNEY's governing agenda: 'At the end of the day he can't deliver on it all, because he's got too many radical ideologues in his party and he doesn't truly believe in it anyway.' — The Globe editorial board: 'Alberta's problem is not in Ottawa — it's in Alberta.' PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest policy newsletter: Security experts flag risks in EU pivot. From DOUG PALMER: U.S. Chamber, Consumer Technology Association urge court to strike down Trump's 'emergency' tariffs. In news for Pro subscribers: — How Trump could crack down on clean energy credits. — US carbon removal seen backsliding under Trump — report. — Researchers who question mainstream climate science join DOE. — Far-right climate delayers to lead Parliament talks on EU's 2040 target. — Europe's privacy groups take on Big Tech with class action cases. LOBBY WATCH — The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada posted a pile of June meetings. The lobby group met with Industry Minister JOLY, Defense Minister DAVID MCGUINTY, Secretary of State for Defense Procurement STEPHEN FUHR, Ambassador to France STÉPHANE DION, Conservative MP RAQUEL DANCHO and senior bureaucrats. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Sen. JULIE MIVILLE-DECHÊNE; former Hill staffer ALISON MURPHY; DIMITRI SOUDAS, former director of communications to Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER; JOE CRESSY, chief of staff at Waterfront Toronto; former Ottawa politician MICHEL BELLEMARE; National Post's CHRIS NARDI; and City of Ottawa's ALAIN MIGUELEZ. HBD+1 to Conservative MP ARPAN KHANNA. Noted: A recent order-in-council clarified that only Industry Canada will 'provide support' to AI Minister SOLOMON, repealing an earlier order that had that task shared with Canadian Heritage. OICs also appointed Justice Minister SEAN FRASER and Public Safety Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE as King's Counsel, a ceremonial honorific bestowed on each Trudeau-era justice minister — but which stirred up controversy for DOUG FORD's government in 2023. Movers and shakers: Former MP and Cabmin DAVID LAMETTI is now principal secretary to Prime Minister CARNEY, his friend of more than 30 years … ELIZABETH ANDERSON is now a fellow at the Montreal Institute for Global Security. Spotted: An open tab, labeled 'BOOK PROPOSAL' on ANAIDA POILIEVRE's laptop — as seen in a 24-hour Instagram story post. In memoriam: Former MP and Cabinet minister JAKE EPP died on Saturday. 'He approached every role with a sense of duty and purpose,' his family said. Read his obituary. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Wednesday's answer: Then-Fisheries Minister HUNTER TOOTOO was the first Cabinet minister to attend Senate QP on behalf of the government. Props to GOZDE KAZAZOGLU, JOHN PEPPER, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ELIZABETH BURN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, JOHN ECKER, CAITLIN KEALEY, DARRYL DAMUDE and RAY DEL BIANCO. Today's question: Canada's first drive-in movie theater opened in July 1946. Tell us where. For bonus marks, tell us the price of an adult admission. Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
08-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Barbecue sauce
Presented by Forestry For The Future Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → Some dish on CHRYSTIA FREELAND's top-tier backyard bash. → The voice of the Big Three automakers has an ELON MUSK-sized warning. → At Stampede, DOUG FORD blames Trudeau for the interprovincial bad times. Trade war GRILL BOSS — The hottest political ticket on Independence Day wasn't to the U.S. ambassador to Canada's residence — but rather a cramped backyard barbecue five-ish hours west of Parliament Hill. While PETE HOEKSTRA was preoccupied with the crowd size at his embassy party in Ottawa, Transport and Internal Trade Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND was at home in Toronto, hosting the A-team that's working to soften the blow of DONALD TRUMP's trade war. — Missing at Hoekstra's shindig: Political heavyweights. The crowd featured no former PMs, premiers or Cabinet ministers. — Found at Freeland's barbecue: Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD, Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON, Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ and Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW. — On the menu in Toronto: Alberta hamburgers and Quebec tourtière. — Turning up the heat: Freeland, who has a knack for getting under the president's skin, has been arguing that tearing down Canada's internal trade barriers is the country's 'best answer to Donald Trump.' So she threw a barbecue for those trying to drive that work — including Chrétien, who has been helping unite the political class behind the 'Team Canada' effort. — Trade policy on a bun: 'The premiers, ministers, senators, MPs and the mayor reflected on what we have all accomplished on free trade in Canada, and talked about the work ahead and the need to keep the momentum going,' Freeland's office said to Playbook. Earlier in the day, Freeland hosted a roundtable in Toronto with CIBC economist AVERY SHENFELD and government adviser RYAN MANUCHA, who both joined the backyard gathering. — Backyard diplomacy: As Playbook previously reported, the minister likes to gather people in her Toronto home where she often cooks dinner herself. Past guests have included PAUL GROD, BRIAN CLOW, PREM WATSA and MARK CARNEY — before he was PM. She once served up roast beef for former U.S. Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER. — Torching trade barriers: On June 26, Parliament passed the One Canadian Economy Act, which removed federal barriers to internal trade and labor mobility. — But, but, but: The ability to dismantle remaining barriers is up to the provinces. Multiple provinces have introduced their own bill to free up trade, including Ontario, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Quebec, Manitoba and P.E.I. And on Monday, Ford and Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH signed an MOU to get Ontario's critical minerals and Western Canada's oil and gas to new markets. — Work to do: Freeland will meet today in Quebec City with the Committee on Internal Trade. Northwest Territories Industry Minister CAITLIN CLEVELAND, the committee's chair, will join Quebec's Economy Minister CHRISTOPHER SKEETE at a press conference on the group's progress. For your radar BLAME ELON — BRIAN KINGSTON insists Canada's EV mandate should be scrapped — and he has data points to bolster his case. The president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association says declining sales is a big one: 8.7 percent of vehicle sales in May, with the market on track to fall just shy of 10 percent this year. But here's another biggie. — It's making ELON MUSK richer: The Trudeau government policy aims to ban new combustion engine cars by 2035, forcing traditional automakers to sell more EVs — or else buy credits from those who have. Kingston represents the Big Three automakers. But there's just one automaker in a position to claim EV credits, Kingston tells Playbook. 'This regulation will directly benefit Tesla and Elon Musk. That makes no sense,' he says. Kingston says the cost of having to buy credits is essentially a trade secret. — Why Tesla is profiting: The EV mandate requires automakers to meet a sales quota for EVs, and if they fall short, they are required to purchase credits from other automakers that exceed their EV sales quota. Tesla is the only automaker in Canada that has a surplus of credits, says Kingston, and is in a position to sell them 'because all they sell is electric vehicles.' — But consider this: 'In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla booked over $400 million in regulatory credits — the majority of that driven out of North American policies.' Some estimates peg Tesla's 2025 credit level almost 50 percent higher. — Why it matters: After ditching a controversial digital services tax, Prime Minister MARK CARNEY's government is facing pressure to scrap the EV mandate as part of bargaining with President DONALD TRUMP toward a new economic and security agreement. — Not so fast: Clean Energy Canada, a B.C. think tank, has advised Carney to retool the EV mandate to help the auto sector 'weather this temporary storm' of slumping EV sales. LISTEN UP, OTTAWA BLAME JUSTIN — Ontario Premier DOUG FORD donned a big fat belt buckle gifted to him at the Calgary Stampede by Alberta's DANIELLE SMITH as they inked an energy and infrastructure pact — and then he took aim at JUSTIN TRUDEAU. 'For far too long — for 10 years under Prime Minister Trudeau — [provinces] were treated terribly. The West was treated terribly, Saskatchewan and Alberta. And as I said in our meeting, and you heard it, Premier Smith, we got to start showing respect,' said Ford. — What's he talkin' 'bout?: Ford was blaming red tape, regulations, and what some see as an unnecessarily long approval process, for the delays in building big projects such as a proposed deepwater port on Northern Ontario's James Bay that the premiers want Prime Minister CARNEY to fast-track. — All talk, no walk, no ball: A reporter challenged Ford over his faith in Carney, asking whether the PM 'is actually going to play ball, or is he just talking the talk?' The premier blasted back. 'Prime Minister Carney is no Justin Trudeau,' Ford said. 'He's run massive, multi-billion dollar businesses, and he's bringing a business approach to the federal government that hasn't had that approach in the last 10 years. He wants to get things going. He comes from Alberta.' THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Procurement Ombudsman ALEXANDER JEGLIC will hold a 10 a.m. presser in the National Press Theatre to discuss his new report on the foundational changes he says are needed in federal procurement. — Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW is in Dublin, Ireland as part of her overseas trade mission. Chow has meetings on the books with the Ireland-Canada Business Association, Screen Producers Ireland, Lord Mayor of Dublin RAY MCADAM and Irish film and television studios. She departs for London in the evening. — The Caribbean Community wraps up its heads of government meeting in Jamaica. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: Sen. PERCY DOWNE and GERRY BUTTS. HBD +1 to PMO's JACKIE LEE. Spotted: Governor General MARY SIMON in Iqaluit. Movers and shakers: DANI SAAD has left the Prime Minister's Office … Longtime Liberal Hill staffer MIKE JONES is now a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies … FRANK TERSIGNI is now director of parliamentary affairs to International Trade Minister MANINDER SIDHU. Lobby watch: The Canadian Renewable Energy Association posted a June 24 meeting with Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON. — Pulse Canada posted a spate of June meetings. Top priority for exporters of dry peas, beans, lentils, faba beans and chickpeas: 'Working to maintain and strengthen market access for Canadian pulses and special crops in China and India.' The lobby group met with Ag Minister HEATH MACDONALD and Minister Sidhu; MPs CLIFFORD SMALL, RANDY HOBACK, ADAM CHAMBERS, JOHN BARLOW and KODY BLOIS; WELDON EPP, assistant deputy minister at Global Affairs' Indo-Pacific branch; AARON WUDRICK and HOLLY DUGGAN in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition; and DAVID ANGELL, foreign and defense policy adviser to the prime minister. Noted: Sen. PATRICK BRAZEAU is launching a men's mental health caucus. Media mentions: Former 'Canada Tonight' host TRAVIS DHANRAJ sent an email blast to CBC employees announcing that he was forced to resign from the public broadcaster. He called for reforms, while claiming the CBC has 'problematic political coverage protocols.' → CBC responds: 'While we are limited in what we can say in response due to privacy and confidentiality considerations, CBC categorically rejects the accusations made about CBC News, our staff and management,' a spokesperson told Playbook. → Staying out of it: Canadian Identity Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — From ANTOINE TRÉPANIER of the National Post: Finance minister directs Cabinet colleagues to find billions in spending cuts. — The Globe's BILL CURRY reports that the House transport committee has voted to have ministers explain C$1-billion loan for BC Ferries' purchase of Chinese vessels. — POLITICO's ALEX BURNS explains how ELON MUSK's third party gamble could succeed. — KATE MCKENNA of CBC News reports that a major defense contract is set to favor a U.S. supplier, despite Carney's promise to diversify. — A question from DAVID SKOK, CEO and editor-in-chief of The Logic: 'What happens to the news business when people stop clicking?' — DYLAN ROBERTSON of The Canadian Press reports on ANITA ANAND's visit to Malaysia and Japan. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers is here. From ZACK COLMAN, ANNIE SNIDER and JAMES BIKALES: Climate change makes deadly floods more likely — but Washington is responding with cuts. The latest headlines for our paid subscribers: — Halted military aid for Ukraine may start flowing again. — Trump sends tariff letters … extending deadline to Aug. 1. — France can live with US tariffs if strategic sectors are shielded. — International tribunal declares right to healthy climate. — How one carbon market is helping industry fight climate change. TRIVIA Monday's answer: ED BROADBENT ran against ROSEMARY BROWN, DOUGLAS CAMPBELL, JOHN PAUL HARNEY and LORNE NYSTROM. Props to DEREK DECLOET, MICHAEL WERNICK, GORDON RANDALL, TRACY SALMON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAVE PENNER, ELIZABETH BURN, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, LAURA JARVIS, JOANNA PLATER, JEFFREY VALOIS, JOHN PEPPER, STÉPHANE HAMADE, NANCI WAUGH, RAY DEL BIANCO, MARY JANE ALLAN, DARRYL DAMUDE, JOSEPH PLANTA, PAUL PARK, CHARLES DILLON and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Today's question: Who was then-Prime Minister ROBERT BORDEN talking about when he told the House: 'He had a magnificent courage which never quailed before any danger, or in the face of any odds.' For bonus marks, connect your answer to this date in history. Answers to canadaplaybook@ Wednesday's Playbook will be written by NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
07-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Kovrig: PM needs a China strategy
Presented by Forestry For The Future Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Happy Monday. Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Let's get to it. → MICHAEL KOVRIG on the struggle for global dominance. → Ambassador PETE HOEKSTRA on a continental 'kerfuffle.' → Plus, CHRYSTIA FREELAND hosted a heck of a barbecue. Trade war 'AGE OF MONSTERS' — MICHAEL KOVRIG says Prime Minister MARK CARNEY needs a plan for dealing with China. He offered the advice in an email to Playbook in response to news that a U.S. judge had ruled China's Huawei Technologies must stand trial on a variety of criminal charges, including evading U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea, and trying to steal technology. The case is set for 2026. — Not about the U.S.A.: 'Job one for Prime Minister Carney is to prepare this country for a much harsher geopolitical environment. Since China is the primary driver of that shift, that means he needs a strategy for dealing with China,' Kovrig said. 'This is not just a trade war. It's a multidimensional, existential struggle for global dominance, to see who will have the most influence in defining the contours of world order for the coming decades,' he added. 'We're passing through a geopolitical inflection point from Pax Americana and Peak Globalization into an Age of Monsters.' — Top of mind: Carney's main focus these days is getting an economic and security deal with President DONALD TRUMP, but he has also flagged the necessity of 'recalibrating' relations with China because it is Canada's second-largest trading partner. Carney recently listed Canada's trade disputes with China. 'Farmers across this country, fishers across this country, are being affected by Chinese tech. People across this country have been affected by fentanyl and precursors.' He said he raised the issues directly in a June 5 call with Chinese Premier LI QIANG. — Almost three years: Kovrig and fellow Canadian MICHAEL SPAVOR spent more than 1,000 days in Chinese detention after the RCMP arrested Huawei's MENG WANZHOU. Kovrig is back working for International Crisis Group, speaking about geopolitics and rejoining the global conversation he was deprived of participating in while he and Spavor were being used as geopolitical pawns. — Courtroom reckoning: Kovrig says the 'wheels of justice grind slowly.' Even still, he said it is 'still something' the indictment will go to trial, after Huawei's lawyers failed to persuade the judge to throw the case out on the grounds it was a politically motivated prosecution by Trump aimed at crippling China's telecommunications industry. 'I wonder if there's any way for the U.S. court to also take into account that Huawei's protector, the Chinese Communist Party, engaged in criminal acts — kidnapping and blackmail — and violated international treaties, all in an effort to disrupt the extradition proceedings against Meng Wanzhou,' Kovrig said about his detention. Many U.S. policy makers say the company is an extension of the Chinese Communist Party. Huawei says it is an independent company. Huawei argued in court that the charges against it were too vague and the Chinese government has said the prosecution of the company is 'economic bullying' by the U.S. to oppress Chinese companies. Playbook reached out to Huawei for comment but has yet to hear back. The company did not respond to requests for comment on the original ruling last week. — Same here: VINA NADJIBULLA, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, is Kovrig's ex-wife and fought tirelessly for his and Spavor's release. She tells Playbook the court ruling 'matters for Canada' because China 'has long framed the 2018 extradition request for Meng Wanzhou as a purely political manoeuvre, but the ruling underlines that the allegations will now be tested in open court.' Chinese authorities have said they acted in accordance with the law. — Advice for C-suiters: 'Even as Canadian exporters explore opportunities in the Chinese market, national- and economic-security considerations must steer any partnership discussions in 5G, AI, critical minerals and other sensitive sectors,' Nadjibulla said. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH are in Calgary where at 9 a.m. local time they'll sign 'a memorandum of understanding to build new energy and trade infrastructure.' THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING DEAR MR. POSTMAN — With Trump's Wednesday deadline to get multiple trade deals done with the world, Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT told CNN's 'State of the Union' on Sunday that the administration would be sending letters to 100 smaller countries 'saying that if you don't move things along, then on Aug. 1st, you will boomerang back to your April 2nd tariff level.' POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS has more on that news. 'I'm not going to give away the playbook, because we're going to be very busy over the next 72 hours,' Bessent told CNN's DANA BASH. 'President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners.' — In related reading: From CBC News: What's at stake for Canada? T-MINUS TWO WEEKS — It's 14 days — but who's counting — until that deadline for a new economic and security deal that Prime Minister CARNEY keeps talking about. But the PMO noted Sunday that their boss will be taking a staycation of sorts for the next week in the national capital region. — WFH: Carney will be on a 'reduced schedule' with no events on the horizon. However, 'he will remain in close coordination with his team and officials on several priorities, including ongoing negotiations on the economic and security relationship between Canada and the United States,' said a Sunday statement from the PMO. — Grounded: Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC has no plans to travel to Washington in the coming days, his office told POLITICO. — Being 'nimble': Carney told Global News at the Calgary Stampede that he realizes Trump is juggling a lot of priorities, including 'strategic competition with China' so that means he has to stay 'nimble.' The PM also spoke with Postmedia over the weekend. The headline out of that sitdown: 'Carney says it's 'highly likely' an oil pipeline will make Ottawa's major project list.' ALBERTA-ONTARIO HANDSHAKE — Ontario Premier Ford and Alberta Premier Smith will meet at the Calgary Stampede today to sign a memorandum of cooperation on energy and trade infrastructure. The Toronto Star's Queen's Park bureau chief ROBERT BENZIE has the background. 'I've never seen a country more united,' Ford told reporters recently. 'I'm going to be flying out to see Premier Smith and we're going to have a great conversation about building pipelines right across our great country.' TALK OF THE TOWN NOTHING TO SEE HERE — 'I can't announce a trade deal today,' deadpanned U.S. Ambassador PETE HOEKSTRA, sparking a hearty laugh from the guests gathered on the lawn of his Rockcliffe Park residence for a July Fourth celebration. — Don't worry, be happy: 'We're going to get through this little kerfuffle — whatever you want to call it,' TRUMP's envoy to Canada said. — Greatness: Hoekstra predicted a deal that would good for both countries — but added that Carney was 'wrong' for suggesting Canada will become the fastest growing economy in the G7. Canada, he told his invited guests, will be second to the United States, but that will be good for both countries. 'We have two leaders that are both very, very talented and aggressive effective negotiators. We have one that is doing everything that he can to make America great again, and we have a prime minister in Canada that is doing everything that he can to make Canada great again. I think he says it a little bit differently.' Poker faces, punctuated by nervous laughter ensued. — Indie day vibe: Marines presented colors, both national anthems were sung. Nothing got booed. It was a lazy, relaxed Independence Day crowd in the capital of a country that is fighting a trade war that was started by their closest friend and neighbor. The crowd was smaller, by more than half, than last year's packed, humidity-soaked blowout that had one-hour food and drink lines. Libation and picnic fare — 'slaw, mac and cheese, pulled pork, sliders and more — was available virtually on demand. — Spotted: Sen. TONY LOFFREDA, Liberal MPs TERRY DUGUID, ALI EHSASSI and ROB OLIPHANT, Conservative trade critic SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN, ALICE HANSEN, director of communications for Defense Minister DAVID MCGUINTY. Also: LORI TURNBULL, FRED DELOREY, GREG MACEACHERN, DAVID THURTON, MERCEDES STEPHENSON, MIKE LE COUTEUR, ISABELLA OROZCO-MADISON. — That's all folks: Bars closed at 6:30 p.m., a half hour before the event was scheduled to end. A bellowing staffer circulated the grounds, exhorting guests to grab a waiting shuttle bus. — Brought to you by: Leading up to the party, former JUSTIN TRUDEAU adviser TYLER MEREDITH took to social media to excoriate Canadian business leaders from attending the party given the trade war. A placard at the event thanked many sponsors: Air Canada, Bell, BMO, Bombardier, Business Council of Canada, Cameco, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Capital Power, CIBC, ConocoPhillips, Earnscliffe, J.D. Irving Ltd., Labatt, Porter, Sandstone Group, Nutrien, Scotiabank, Sun Life, TD Bank, Teck, Telus, the Westin hotel in Ottawa, and Vale. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — ELON MUSK declared the launch of his new political party on Saturday. POLITICO's GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING has the latest. — From SIMON TUCK and ANTOINE TRÉPANIER in the Post: How Carney's team full of Quebecers wants to govern Canada. — BILL GRAVELAND of CP caught up with defense staff chief Gen. JENNIE CARIGNAN at the Calgary Stampede to find out how she's going to deliver those 20 percent pay hikes Defense Minister DAVID MCGUINTY has promised. — Vice-Admiral ANGUS TOPSHEE, commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, joined DAVID HERLE to discuss Canada's military. — Our colleagues in Europe report: The Starmer-Macron bromance has a Donald Trump problem. PROZONE For Pro subscribers: our latest policy newsletter. In other news for Pro readers: — The next megabill Congress needs to worry about. — Why Trump isn't sweating his lack of trade deals. — EU digital rules surface in trade talks with the US. — EPA puts 139 employees on leave who criticized administration. — Beijing and Washington lift export restrictions on key products. For your radar FRONT AND CENTER — Sunday marked the 12th anniversary of the Lac-Mégantic rail disaster that killed 47 in the Quebec town. In his 2024 memoir, the late MARC GARNEAU wrote that when he was transport minister attending an emotional town hall in Lac-Mégantic, a resident presented him with a rail spike salvaged from the track. Garneau kept the spike on his desk and passed it on to his successor, OMAR ALGHABRA, following a Cabinet shuffle. Playbook confirmed with Transport Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND's office that the spike is 'front and center' on her desk. PABLO RODRIGUEZ, another former transport minister, added a note about rail safety that still sits near the spike. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former MPs VIVIAN BARBOT, LEON BENOIT and JEAN CROWDER. Also celebrating today: Summa's KATE HARRISON, GT's GENEVIEVE TOMNEY, Earnscliffe's ELLY ALBOIM, SHEILA GERVAIS and BRAEDEN CALEY, the PM's deputy chief of staff. Spotted: At CHRYSTIA FREELAND's backyard barbecue over the weekend — 'to celebrate what we have accomplished on free trade' in Canada: Former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister LEBLANC, Ontario Premier FORD, Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW, former Yukon Premier RANJ PILLAI, Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON, Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ and many others. At the Stampede: MARK CARNEY took a turn at flapjack flipping. Verdict via CP: 'Could use some work.' Also spotted: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Premier DANIELLE SMITH, Liberal MPs KODY BLOIS and COREY HOGAN, Canadian Chamber of Commerce President CANDACE LAING and defence staff chief CARIGNAN. BRUCE FANJOY with a pair of bronzed sneakers, a gift from his campaign staff. Movers and shakers: Updates from the Riddell program in political management: JENNIFER ROBSON is back in the director's chair after a sabbatical. DON GUY (Pollara) replaces SEAN SPEER as practitioner-in-residence. Speer is sticking around as a program fellow. New fellows to the program include TASHA KHEIRIDDIN (Postmedia), DENNIS MATTHEWS (Creative Currency), JOANNE MCPHERSON (formerly of the CBC) and GOZDE KAZAZOGLU (Coca-Cola Canada). Lobby watch: On behalf of Porter Airlines, LIAM DALY met with KYLE FOX of the Finance department on Friday, 'to raise awareness about Porter's work and activities.' — Meanwhile on K Street: Ballard Partners has registered to lobby for the Binational Softwood Lumber Council amid a U.S. Commerce Department review of duties on Canadian softwood lumber. Media mentions: PAUL BAGNELL announced that his final day at BNN will be July 18. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Friday's answer: GRITTY attended the 2022 July Fourth bash at Lornado. Props to SEAN SUNDERLAND, CAMERON RYAN, KELSEY MACDONALD, DARRY DAMUDE, AMY CASTLE, MICHAEL POWELL, ELIZABETH BURN, LESLIE SWARTMAN, BRIAN PEEBLES, DANIEL KOMESH, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN PEPPER and RAY DEL BIANCO. Today's question: On this date in 1975, ED BROADBENT was elected leader of the NDP. Who did he run against? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
