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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Florida in 2025? History says that's unlikely
Starting today, June 1 and for the next 182 days (until Nov. 30), Southwest Floridians will paying more attention to the weather forecast, especially with what is happening in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf.
It's called Hurricane Season.
In recent years, because of the number of hurricanes Southwest Florida has had to deal with and the damage caused by those storms, including historic Hurricane Ian in September 2022, it might feel like we must have been hit by a Category 5 hurricane during this run.
You could argue the back-to-back hurricanes we had last year (2024) − Helene and Milton − combined added up to a Cat 5, but that's not how it works.
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Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 26, 2024, with winds of 140 mph.
Just 13 days later, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. It struck near Siesta Key Oct. 9, 2024. The storm was accompanied by sustained winds of 120 mph.
Turn back the clock a couple of years to Sept. 28, 2022 and we had Hurricane Ian, which caused catastrophic to Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and other coastal locations in Southwest Florida. It sure felt and looked like a Category 5 hit here.
But officially, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm. It was initially a Category 5 storm before weakening to a Category 4 just before landfall at Cayo Costa.
Ian had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
There were more than 140 deaths attributed to Ian.
It is possible, but not probable based on past history. Could it happen? Sure. But since records have been kept, it has never happened here, even though with Ian it was right on the edge of being added to the short list.
Since the 1900, three Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in Florida:
The 'Labor Day Hurricane' of 1935
The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is considered the strongest storm ever recorded to make landfall in the U.S., smashing into the Florida Keys on Sept. 2, 1935, with winds of 185 mph. It killed an estimated 409 people.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992
On Aug. 24, 1992, Andrew made landfall in South Miami-Dade County with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph. Although 23 deaths were directly attributed to the storm, according to NOAA, "Hurricane Andrew destroyed more than 50,000 homes and caused an estimated $26 billion in damage, making it at the time the most expensive natural disaster in United States history."
And the most recent, Hurricane Michael in 2018
Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Oct. 10, 2018, as a Category 5 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 161 mph. According to the National Weather Service: "Wind and storm surge caused catastrophic damage, particularly in the Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach areas. Eight direct fatalities were reported: seven in Florida and one in Georgia. In addition, 43 indirect deaths were attributed to the storm."
More: When does hurricane season start in Florida? What to document for insurance now
There's only be one.
Hurricane Camille in 1969.
Camille had sustained winds of more than 170 mph when it hit Mississippi on Aug. 17, 1969. More than 250 people were killed, many in Virginia due to massive flooding the storm brought to that state. Camille tracked north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a Category 5 the day before making landfall.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: How many Category 5 hurricanes hit Florida?
