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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Tops $116K as Bullish Signals Spur Confidence: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Bitcoin (BTC) rose to the highest this month, touching $116,430 and establishing itself more firmly above the $115,000 level on renewed demand for risk assets as the implications from Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs market data sink in. The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with the CME's FedWatch tool weighing a 93.4% chance of that happening. On Polymarket, traders are slightly less convinced, seeing a 79% chance of a cut. Traders are positioning for reductions at the following two meetings as well. Add in strong earnings from major companies and a weakening U.S. dollar, and the outlook is looking a little stronger for equities and other risk assets. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.65% today, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.73% on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.2% on news of chip tariff exemptions and President Trump signaling he may appoint dovish members to the Fed. In a sign of long-term institutional interest, the State of Michigan Retirement System (SMRS) said boosted its bitcoin exposure through spot ETFs in the second quarter. Yet the real story may be how little BTC is moving. The cryptocurrency's 30-day implied volatility, as tracked by the BVIV index from Volmex, has dropped to 36.5%, a level not seen since October 2023, when bitcoin traded under $30,000. The pattern resembles Wall Street's bull markets, where implied volatility tends to shrink as optimism grows. In previous cycles, bitcoin's price and volatility moved in tandem. Structured crypto projects that allow investors to sell out-of-the-money call options to generate yield may be playing a part in reducing the volatility. Still, geopolitical risk isn't going to go away. Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on India over its Russian oil purchases, which could lead to a 'mini crunch in supplies if Delhi draws on other crude sources instead,' Hargreaves Lansdown said in an emailed note. That would likely force OPEC+ members to amp up production to avoid a crisis, Hargreaves Lansdown said. On top of that, while peace talks on Ukraine have been advancing, recent nuclear rhetoric suggests there's a long way to go. Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, "The GENIUS Act Era Begins," featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will discuss the first U.S. federal payment stablecoin framework and its impact on crypto innovation and regulation. Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements. Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures. Macro Aug. 7, 7 a.m.: The U.K.'s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), announces its monetary policy decision. Bank Rate Est. 4% vs. Prev. 4.25% Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Prev. -1.29% PPI YoY Prev. 5.78% Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data. Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.39% Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.23% vs. Prev. 4.24% Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.28% vs. Prev. 0.28% Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.53% vs. Prev. 4.32% Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico's central bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary policy decision. Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8% Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler's resignation becomes effective, creating an early vacancy on the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.07 Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.63 Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.30, Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market, N/A Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.07 Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06 Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.12 Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02 Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market, N/A Token Events Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years, starting September 2025. The proposal includes $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB for incentives for Entropy to focus on treasury management, incentive design, data infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7. BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards, and launching monthly buybacks using 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10. 1inch DAO is voting on a $1.88 million grant to fund its participation in nine global crypto events through late 2025. The proposal aims to boost developer engagement, grow institutional ties and expand adoption across ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. Voting ends Aug. 10. Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call. Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a town hall on Discord. Unlocks Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.66 million. Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million. Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $37.2 million. Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $15.40 million. Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $16.52 million. Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million. Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.4 million. Token Launches Aug. 7: TaleX (X) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, MEXC, and others. Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31. Day 2 of 2: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Day 2 of 5: Rare EVO (Las Vegas) Day 1 of 2: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion) Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul) Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York) Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter '25 (Queenstown, New Zealand) Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa The Solana-based Troll memecoin has surged over 1,050% in two weeks, jumping from a $16 million to $184 million market cap. It's now ranked No. 32 among all meme tokens, according to CoinGecko. But Carlos Ramirez, the artist behind the original Trollface meme, says he wants nothing to do with it, calling the token's hype a "cursed proposition" in his first interview in a decade. Ramirez told Decrypt he's constantly offered Troll-related token allocations, but refuses to participate, saying he'd either be stuck holding worthless supply or blamed for a crash if he sold. Still, Ramirez promoted a separate Troll token earlier this year — and again this week — leading to confusion over his stance. He criticized the memecoin economy as profit-driven and artistically hollow, saying the financial incentives undermine authentic expression and reduce art to speculation. Ramirez added that at least 30 different Troll tokens have been minted across platforms like Bags, none with his blessing — a pattern he sees as exploitative and detached from the original spirit of the meme. The saga highlights the growing tension between viral internet culture and tokenized financialization, especially as legacy creators push back against involuntary meme monetization in Web3. Derivatives Positioning Bitcoin futures open interest remains firm at $78.5 billion, with CME leading at $16.24 billion (a 21% market share). This confirms persistent institutional engagement, especially as CME's BTC basis rose to 3.6% — among the highest across venues — hinting at spot-driven interest or hedged long exposure. ETH futures open interest rose to $48.18 billion, a 3.57% increase over the past week. CME's ETH OI rose 4.56% in the past 24 hours alone, alongside a basis of 2.6%, showing that institutions are re-entering ETH positioning aggressively — likely tied to ETF speculation and technical breakout setups. Altcoin positioning is back in focus, with XRP OI up 1.6% daily to $7.33 billion. CME's XRP basis is a standout at 8.4%, far exceeding other venues and suggesting leveraged long appetite or premium pricing for compliant exposure. XRP open interest is now concentrated across Bybit and Binance, indicating retail-trader skew. Funding rates remain elevated across majors, with BTC, ETH, DOGE and XRP all capped at the 0.03% daily limit (about 11% annualized). SOL funding is less aggressive around 0.006%, but the 30-day average sits at the cap, implying longer-term leveraged bias even if short-term flows are cooling. The derivatives volume remains concentrated, with Binance and Bybit collectively holding 29% of BTC OI, while CME continues to grow. For ETH, CME now accounts for nearly 12% of total open interest, a key institutional marker that wasn't true even two months ago. Risk-reward asymmetry may be building, as sustained long-heavy funding, rising CME premiums, and relative flatness in altcoin open interest suggest an environment ripe for volatility. The next move — whether a breakout or a flush — is likely to be aggressive, given the significant directional leverage now in place. Market Movements BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $115,030.54 (24hrs: +1.29%) ETH is up 1.41% at $3,727.41 (24hrs: +4.97%) CoinDesk 20 is up 0.67% at 3,846.17 (24hrs: +2.98%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.9% BTC funding rate is at 0.0095% (10.4386% annualized) on Binance DXY is unchanged at 98.13 Gold futures are up 0.52% at $3,451.20 Silver futures are up 1.29% at $38.39 Nikkei 225 closed up 0.65% at 41,059.15 Hang Seng closed up 0.69% at 25,081.63 FTSE is down 0.24% at 9,142.34 Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.72% at 5,353.88 DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.18% at 44,193.12 S&P 500 closed up 0.73% at 6,345.06 Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.21% at 21,169.42 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.27% at 27,920.87 S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.89% at 2,613.50 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.3 bps at 4.235% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.66% at 6,413.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.69% at 23,585.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.45% at 44,511.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 61.6% (-0.20%) Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03239 (1.13%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 955 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $57.48 Total fees: 5.88 BTC / $674,584 CME Futures Open Interest: 138,150 BTC BTC priced in gold: 34.0% BTC vs gold market cap: 9.63% Crypto Equities Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $383.41 (+2.12%), +0.13% at $383.89 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $303.58 (+1.88%), +1.55% at $308.28 Circle (CRCL): closed at $161.71 (+5.05%), +2.03% at $165 Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.34 (-1.23%), +2.63% at $28.06 MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.89 (+1.73%), +0.44% at $15.96 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.66 (+4.76%), +0.69% at $11.74 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.11 (+0.21%), +0.28% at $14.15 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11 (+1.57%), +1% at $11.11 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.73 (+3.54%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.66 (+2.27%), +1.65% at $36.25 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.36 (+1.59%) SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $22.14 (+9.44%), +3.16% at $22.84 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: $91.6 million Cumulative net flows: $53.73 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: $35.1 million Cumulative net flows: $9.15 billion Total ETH holdings ~5.59 million Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day Top crypto traders — the 20% of users with the highest margin balance on Binance — turned bullish on BTC before its recent recovery, with the ratio of long to short positions reaching 1.51, indicating a strong lean towards longs, SoSoValue data shows. While the top traders' ratio has since risen to 1.81, the overall market's is at 1.18, showing widespread bullish sentiment, per SoSoValue data. While You Were Sleeping Bitcoin's Volatility Disappears to Levels Not Seen Since October 2023 (CoinDesk): Despite a 60% rally since November 2024, demand for options remains subdued, driving 30-day implied volatility — a gauge of expected price swings — to its lowest since October 2023. Staggering U.S. Tariffs Begin as Trump Widens Trade War (The New York Times): Hours before new levies took effect, Trump floated a 100% tariff on semiconductors, seemingly brushing off stagflation warnings from economists and business concerns over unsustainable import costs. U.S. Trading Partners Race to Secure Exemptions From Trump's Tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): Several trade partners with signed agreements, including the EU, Japan and South Korea, are still pressing for sector-specific relief while unresolved terms continue to create confusion around implementation. UK Crypto Investors Hail Regulatory Changes as 'Pivotal Moment' (Financial Times): U.K. retail investors will gain access to 17 bitcoin and ether exchange-traded notes in October as the country's financial regulator lifts its retail ban. U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs will remain inaccessible. Exclusive: Rubio Orders US Diplomats to Launch Lobbying Blitz Against Europe's Tech Law (Reuters): An Aug. 4 classified directive from the U.S. State Department, signed by Marco Rubio, called on embassy officials to push back against Europe's Digital Services Act and defend U.S. tech interests. With South Korea's CBDC Plans Dead, KakaoBank Joins Stablecoin Gold Rush (CoinDesk): KakaoBank's CFO highlighted the firm's preparedness for stablecoin issuance and custody, pointing to its work on Korea's shelved CBDC pilot and its track record handling compliance for crypto exchanges. In the Ether
Yahoo
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Slides as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The wind seems to be coming out of the crypto market's sails. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3% in the past 24 hours, dropping below $115,000, and it's actually one of the better performing of the largest cryptocurrencies. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, a measure of the broader market, fell 6% with ether (ETH) down 5.7% after posting its strongest monthly gain in three years and XRP (XRP) losing more than 7%. The drop comes as some of President Donald Trump's tariffs started taking effect with more due to kick in on Aug. 7. The levies range from 10% to 41% on imports from key trading partners including Canada, the European Union and Japan. That sent Asian equity markets to their worst week since April and fueled a rally in the U.S. dollar, sending the dollar index above 100 for the first time since May. The tariffs also pushed up the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, to 2.8% year-over-year in June. That increase has dampened hopes for a reduction in interest rates in September. Polymarket traders moved from a perceived 56% chance of a rate cut to now 38%. The CME's FedWatch tool shows a 39% chance. "For crypto, looser financial conditions would be a major tailwind,' said 21Shares strategist Matt Mena in an emailed statement. Today's nonfarm payrolls data could be decisive. The report is expected to the U.S. economy created 110,000 jobs last month. Options traders are already seeking protection from further declines. 'We're seeing increased short-term bearish positioning on BTC with capped upside strategies,' said Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute. 'ETH options into late August are notably different, with positioning balanced to even outright bullish.' If economic data points to higher rates for longer, traders may pivot toward assets that benefit from tighter conditions. A stronger dollar and higher interest rates could nudge investors toward yield-bearing stablecoins or transparent ETH-based vaults, given the GENIUS Act's passage into law. Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT. Aug. 1: Hong Kong's Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city. Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs will launch BTCD, which it says is the first fully bitcoin-backed stablecoin, on the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation. Aug. 4: Solana Mobile begins worldwide shipping of its Seeker Web3 mobile device. Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements. Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures. Macro Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1% Government Payrolls Prev. 73K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -3K vs. Prev. -7K Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Brazil. Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3 Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Canada. Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6 Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services data for the U.S. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9 Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services sector data. Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49 Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. consumer sentiment data. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 62 vs. Prev. 60.7 Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Mexico. Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3 Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July consumer price inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69% Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: A 50% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian imports, announced in President Trump's July 30 executive order, goes into effect. Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump's July 31 executive order become effective for a broad range of trading partners that did not secure deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs range from 15% to 41%, depending on the country. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22 Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19 Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67 Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19 Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08 Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06 Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00 Token Events Governance votes & calls NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR's inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approve the proposal for it to pass and, if if it does, it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1. Venus DAO is voting on a 12-month renewal with Chaos Labs for the BNB Chain deployment at a cost of $400,000, focused on expanding the Risk Oracle system for real-time, automated risk parameter updates. Voting ends Aug. 1. Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing between ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5. Unlocks Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $23.36 million. Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.26 million. Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $47.95 million. Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million. Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.42 million. Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $15.78 million. Token Launches Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken. Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31. Aug. 6-7: 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas) Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion) Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul) Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York) Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter '25 (Queenstown, New Zealand) Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia) Token Talk By Francisco Rodrigues The non-fungible token (NFT) market recovery is well underway with CryptoPunks, the dominant collection, seeing its floor price in dollar terms hit a three-year high, according to NFTPriceFloor. The total market capitalization of NFTs has almost doubled to $6.4 billion in just a month, according to CoinGecko data. The rally was led by the CryptoPunks, which rose 33.3% over the period. Other collections, such as the Pudgy Penguins, also helped. CryptoPunks' increase took it near 30% of the total market capitalization of the NFT sector. In ETH terms, the 52 ETH price is the highest in over a year. Derivatives Positioning The number of open contracts in CME bitcoin standard futures has dropped to 27,699, representing 138,495 BTC, the lowest since April. The capital flight could be institutions preferring spot ETFs over futures or traders scaling back exposure as the dollar's rally gathers speed. Open interest in ether futures has fallen to 32,903 contracts from the recent high of 41,636. The ether contract is sized at 50 ETH. BTC and ETH OI remains elevated near record highs in offshore perpetual futures, with funding rates receding to under 5%, a sign of weakening of bullish sentiment. On Deribit, the market sentiment has shifted against ether, with downside insurance premiums costlier than for bitcoin. Market Movements BTC is down 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $114,962.47 (24hrs: -2.92%) ETH is down 3.09% at $3,619.49 (24hrs: -5.94%) CoinDesk 20 is down 3.26% at 3,764.26 (24hrs: -6.05%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.94% BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8448% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.25% at 100.22 Gold futures are unchanged at $3,345.70 Silver futures are down 0.67% at $36.47 Nikkei 225 closed down 0.66% at 40,799.60 Hang Seng closed down 1.07% at 24,507.81 FTSE is down 0.40% at 9,096.56 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.36% at 5,319.92 DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.74% at 44,130.98 S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,339.39 Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 21,122.45 S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.40% at 27,259.78 S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.71% at 2,563.84 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3.6 bps at 4.396% E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.94% at 6,314.25 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.03% at 23,125.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.91% at 43,900.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 61.98% (0.41%) Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03150 (-1.38%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 904 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $57.21 Total Fees: 3.96 BTC / $468,378 CME Futures Open Interest: 138,495 BTC BTC priced in gold: 34.8 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 9.85% Technical Analysis The ether-bitcoin ratio's daily chart shows a bearish divergence of the RSI. The pattern is marked by the indicator printing a lower high, decoupling from the rising price, and suggests a weakening of the bullish momentum. In other words, ether could underperform bitcoin in the coming days. The MACD histogram, a trend-following indicator, has also turned negative Crypto Equities Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $401.86 (+1.73%), -4.2% at $385 at pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $377.76 (+0.07%), -11.15% at $335.65 Circle (CRCL): closed at $183.52 (-3.66%), -5.19% at $174 Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.41 (-1.68%), -7.97% at $26.15 MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.08 (-2.84%), -3.61% at $15.5 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.41 (-0.81%), -8.05% at $12.33 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.54 (+3.72%), -4.21% at $12.97 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.37 (-0.44%), -3.25% at $11 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.26 (+2.23%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.85 (-0.17%), -0.7% at $35.60 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.84 (+6.05%), -1.85% at $30.27 SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.81 (-3.83%), -6.11% at $17.66 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: -$114.8 million Cumulative net flows: $54.97 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: $17 million Cumulative net flows: $9.66 billion Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day The total amount of USDT transferred on-chain has risen to $52.9 billion, the highest since early 2022. It shows that a slow but consistent recovery in stablecoin velocity and market activity, according to Glassnode. The 2021 crypto bull market peak was marked by sharp spikes in USDT velocity. While You Were Sleeping Donald Trump Reignites Global Trade War With Sweeping Tariff Regime (Financial Times): A 35% tariff on Canadian non-USMCA goods begins Aug. 1, while broader tariffs announced in Thursday's executive order take effect Aug. 7 to allow U.S. Customs time to implement them. Bitcoin, Ether Start August on a Shaky Note as Dollar Index Tops 100; Yen Hits 4-Month Low Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls (CoinDesk): Major cryptocurrencies saw volatile trading as a stronger dollar followed the new tariffs, which may worsen inflation and complicate the Fed's path to cutting interest rates. Are Traders Done With Ether? Options Market Now Prices Higher Risk for ETH Than BTC (CoinDesk): Deribit data shows it now costs more to hedge ether than bitcoin, marking a sentiment shift after weeks of institutional preference for the second-largest cryptocurrency. El Salvador Scraps Presidential Term Limits, Opening Door for Another Bukele Term (Reuters): The bill passed in Congress Thursday allows indefinite re-election, extends presidential terms to six years, eliminates run-offs and shortens Bukele's current term to align all elections in 2027. Goldman Urges Caution as Global Credit Spreads Hit 2007 Lows (Bloomberg): Although markets show confidence, strategists warned that investors may be overlooking risks like softening growth, delayed Fed rate cuts, and uneven effects from trade policy — and advised keeping hedges in place. Bitcoin Holders Can Now Earn Automated Yield Via $2B Solv Protocol (CoinDesk): Solv's BTC+ vault offers 4.5%–5.5% returns on bitcoin through DeFi lending and protocol staking, automating yield generation and relieving holders from manually selecting and managing strategies. In the Ether Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Treads Water as Traders Eye $140K: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) While bitcoin (BTC) is pretty much back to where it was 24 hours ago, ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) extended their gains after the House of Representatives passed the first major crypto regulatory initiative in the U.S. even though the legislation is aimed at stablecoins. It's the knock-on effect that spurred trading activity. More about that later. While the second- and third-largest cryptocurrencies have outpaced their larger rival in the past seven and 30 days, it's worth noting BTC has climbed more than 40% in the past three months and hit a new record high. Market participants are betting the party isn't over yet, the derivatives market shows. Bitcoin's options market now carries a $2.36 billion wager the price will clear $140,000, data from Deribit shows. That single strike price holds the most open interest on the exchange, double the OI of the busiest put option, or bet on a decline. Ether options show a similar pattern. The $4,000 call leads with $651 million in open interest, and another $280 million is targeting $6,000. The data shows how heavily the market is tilting bullish even after ETH surged more than 125% in just three months. As the prices rise, the money flows in. Spot bitcoin ETFs have already brought in $5.41 billion this month, the most since November 2024, when President Donald Trump was elected on a pro-crypto platform. Spot ether ETFs saw net inflows of $2.88 billion, the highest since August 2024, SoSoValue data shows. As an aside, to underpin the altcoin narrative, net inflows into the ether ETFs beat those for bitcoin ETFs yesterday. To Boris Alergant, the head of institutional partnerships at Babylon Labs, these flows underscore 'the shift from speculative retail to long-term institutional allocation.' The regulatory environment is part of the story. The GENIUS Act, expected to be signed into law later today, tightens rules for yield-bearing stablecoins. The law is seen as nudging treasurers toward native ETH staking and transparent restaking vaults. Robinson Burkey, co-founder of the Wormhole Foundation, told CoinDesk the GENIUS act, along with the Clarity Act are the 'first meaningful answers' to the crypto market's requests for rules that won't stifle innovation. Trump is also expected to sign an executive order in the near future opening up 401K plans to investments beyond stocks and bonds. That would open the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market to cryptocurrency, gold and other investments. 'It's plausible that the meaningful progression of legislative matters could be the catalyst for unlocking further participation from risk-averse capital that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for regulatory certainty,' Babylon Labs' Alergant told CoinDesk. 'When you combine structural demand, tightening BTC supply post-halving, and a potentially favorable policy backdrop, the setup for this market remains incredibly strong.' Still, bitcoin's share of the market has been dropping this month and the broad CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is up 32% this month, outperforming the bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5), which rose 17% in the same period. Bitcoin dominance, which measures bitcoin's weighting in what is now a more than $4 trillion market cap, has dropped to 61.7% from 65.5% on June 30. 'The infrastructure has matured, stablecoins are proven, liquidity is deeper, and execution is faster, making this cycle feel more durable than past rallies.' Sei Labs co-founder Jeff Feng told CoinDesk 'It's a pivotal moment for on-chain finance to prove its staying power.' Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto July 18: Lorenzo Protocol, a Cosmos-based blockchain with native token BANK, launches USD1+ OTF on BNB Chain's mainnet. The institutional-grade on-chain traded fund lets users stake stablecoins to mint sUSD1+ tokens that earn stable, NAV-backed yield from real-world assets, CeFi quantitative strategies and DeFi protocols. All returns are settled in USD1 stablecoin, issued by World Liberty Financial, whose stablecoin infrastructure powers the product's stable yield mechanism. July 18, 2:30 p.m.: President Trump is expected to sign the GENIUS Act into law at a White House ceremony, enacting the first major U.S. federal stablecoin regulatory framework following House passage during Crypto Week. Macro July 18, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Preliminary) July U.S. consumer sentiment data. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 61.5 vs. Prev. 60.7 July 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases June producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Prev. -0.5% PPI YoY Prev. 1.2% Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trade partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) July 23: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $0.42 July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29 July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.30 July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.35 July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19 Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market Token Events Governance votes & calls Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a $245,000 funding proposal to expand Gotchi Battler into a revenue-generating game with PvE modes, NFTs and battle passes, aiming to reverse declining player numbers, boost GHST utility and create sustainable rewards. Voting ends July 22. Ethereum Name Service DAO is voting on a proposal from Tally to enter a one-year renewable agreement to enhance ENS governance. Voting ends July 22. Rocket Pool DAO is voting to finalize Saturn 1's implementation. Approval by a 75% supermajority will ratify key protocol changes, including new transaction designs and a potential revenue share to the pDAO treasury. Voting ends July 24. NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR's inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1. July 29, 10 a.m.: to host a bi-quarterly analyst call. Unlocks July 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 23.13% of its circulating supply worth $60.41 million. July 25: Venom (VENOM) to unlock 2.84% of its circulating supply worth $12.88 million. July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $24.16 million. Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $178.18 million. Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $16.77 million. Token Launches July 18: PUMP to be listed on OKX. July 18: (TA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, and others. Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17. July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta) July 21-22: Malaysia Blockchain Week 2025 (Kuala Lumpur) July 24: Decasonic's Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago) July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay) July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore) Aug. 6-7: 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas) Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia) Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Shiba Inu lead Shytoshi Kusama has internally released a 36-page, AI-focused whitepaper titled "The ShibPaper," teasing a new evolution for the SHIB ecosystem. While the full document isn't public, insiders suggest it outlines how AI will integrate into the projects roadmap, potentially reshaping infrastructure, governance and user engagement. Marketing head Lucie called it 'a new season or a whole new show,' playfully branding it SHIB City: The AI Utopia. The release triggered a 3,615% spike in SHIB's burn rate, with 6.3 million tokens destroyed in 24 hours, including a 5.8 million token burn in a single transaction. The sudden jump in burnings comes despite the weekly burn rate being down 97%, suggesting renewed community interest tied to the whitepaper buzz. With AI tailwinds and rising burn activity, SHIB appears to be positioning itself for a new narrative cycle in the memecoin world. Derivatives Positioning Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues remains close to all time highs According to Velo, BTC OI currently sits at $32.2 billion, just shy of the record $33 billion hit earlier in the week. Binance still leads the market with $13.7 billion open interest, followed by Bybit at $8.4 billion. BTC three-month annualized basis is starting to rise and is currently at 8%. That's still some way off the Q4 2024 highs of around 15%. In terms of perpetual volumes, ETH exceeded BTC for a second consecutive day at $167.7 billion vs. $111.4 billion, according to Coinglass data. BTC put and call contracts stand at 325,000, with BTC calls accounting for more than 60% of the total for the second consecutive day, according to Velo. Open interest for BTC options is at an all time high of $51.67 billion, Coinglass data show. ETH has 2.62 million call and put contracts with 69% being calls. At $12 billion, ETH open interest is starting to pick up, but is still below the all-time high of $14.76 billion from March 2024, as per Coinglass data. Funding rate APRs across perpetual swaps have started to pick up, according to Velo data. BTC annualized funding on Hyperliquid has jumped to around 52%, up from 10% yesterday. ETH surged to 90% from 10% yesterday. Alts such as XRP (104%) and DOGE (92%) are also starting to reach high levels of annualized funding rates, as per Coinglass Coinglass data shows $812 million in 24 hour liquidations, which is higher than Thursday's $521.29 million. This is skewed 59% towards shorts liquidations, with ETH leading in terms of notional liquidations at $238 million followed by BTC at $147 million. Binance's liquidation heatmap for BTC indicates high leverage positions at $119,000. BTC dominance continues to hover above 60% but is declining and with a sharp pickup in funding across majors and alts, potential short term cooldown in prices is a possibility. Market Movements BTC is down 0.57% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $118,738.05 (24hrs: -0.26%) ETH is up 0.23% at $3,426.89 (24hrs: +4.58%) CoinDesk 20 is up 3.51% at 4,046.62 (24hrs: +3.41%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 3.08% BTC funding rate is at 0.0218% (23.871% annualized) on KuCoin DXY is down 0.37% at 98.37 Gold futures are up 0.46% at $3,360.60 Silver futures are up 1.30% at $38.80 Nikkei 225 closed down 0.21% at 39,819.11 Hang Seng closed up 1.33% at 24,825.66 FTSE is up 0.28% at 8,997.58 Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 5,400.99 DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.52% at 44,484.49 S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,297.36 Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.75% at 20,885.65 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.86% at 27,386.93 S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.58% at 2,628.42 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.445% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% at 6,349.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.14% at 23,284.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.15% at 44,783.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 61.68% (-0.9%) Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03035 (4.08%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 898 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $60.07 Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $751,661 CME Futures Open Interest: 159,640 BTC priced in gold: 35.4 oz. BTC vs gold market cap: 10.07% Technical Analysis Market sentiment has turned sharply bullish following the House's passage of the GENIUS and CLARITY acts alongside reports that President Trump is preparing to allow retirement accounts to invest in alternative assets, including digital assets. Among the standout performers, XRP surged to a new all-time high of $3.65. However, there are early signs of caution, with a potential bearish RSI divergence forming on the weekly timeframe. From a technical perspective, XRP needs to maintain a weekly close above $3.30 to invalidate the risk of a swing failure pattern. If the bullish conditions hold, the next long-term upside target for XRP could be around $5.19, which aligns with the key Fibonacci extension level following its retracement to the golden pocket in April. Crypto Equities Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $451.34 (-1%), +0.56% at $453.85 Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $410.75 (+3.15%), +1.74% at $417.91 Circle (CRCL): closed at $235.08 (+0.81%), +2.94% at $241.99 Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.04 (+6.9%), +10.45% at $28.76 MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.97 (+2.73%), +0.95% at $20.16 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.33 (+6.05%), +0.98% at $13.46 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.47 (-3.23%), +1.11% at $13.62 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.98 (+3.26%), +1.16% at $13.13 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.83 (+2.52%), +3.54% at $27.78 Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.6 (+2.08%), +0.46% at $43.80 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.3 (-4.92%), +2.89% at $37.35 SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $36.4 (-2.62%), +5.19% at $38.29 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: $522.6 million Cumulative net flows: $54.36 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: $602 million Cumulative net flows: $7.1 billion Total ETH holdings ~4.78 million Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day Ether futures open interest hit an all-time high as the second-largest cryptocurrency surges on an expected shift from yield-bearing stablecoins to ETH-based strategies. The cryptocurrency underperformed the wider market for months as bitcoin's dominance rose. Now, it's more than doubled in just three months. While You Were Sleeping What Is Big Money Betting on? Bitcoin $140K, Ether $4K Calls Lead Open Interest (CoinDesk): The GENIUS Act's stablecoin curbs are expected to drive more ETH staking and restaking, boosting activity on the Ethereum blockchain and strengthening ether's long-term appeal to institutional treasuries, Republic Technologies' CEO said. Dogecoin Open Futures Bets Surge to Record 16B DOGE as Prices Top Downtrend Line (CoinDesk): Open interest in DOGE futures has climbed 48% to a record 16.24 billion tokens, with positive funding rates signaling growing demand for bullish bets and potential for greater volatility. Bitcoin DeFi Has Ballooned 20x Since Start of 2024 as Builders Bet on Yield (CoinDesk): Bitcoin-native DeFi has grown to $6.36 billion from $307 million this year, led by lending protocols. Developers are exploring new infrastructure to overcome the blockchain's limited smart-contract functionality. Lula Says He Won't Take Orders From Foreigner Trump, Calls Tariffs Blackmail (Reuters): The Brazilian president, buoyed by rising approval since the feud with his U.S. counterpart began, vowed to press ahead with measures targeting U.S. social media platforms he called purveyors of fake news. EU Backs Revised Russia Oil Price Cap and New Russia Sanctions (Bloomberg): The new sanctions package expands SWIFT bans to 20 more Russian banks, targets 400 covert oil tankers and penalizes more foreign firms accused of helping Moscow evade trade restrictions. Japan Inflation Eases, But BOJ Still Faces Policy Challenges (The Wall Street Journal): A dip in Japan's core inflation offered some relief, but sticky food prices and uncertainty over President Trump's looming tariffs complicate the central bank's outlook for further tightening. 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14-06-2025
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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Weathers Market Rout as Israel Hits Iran
By Francisco Rodrigues(All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Cryptocurrencies slid as Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and missile sites roiled global sentiment and sent investors fleeing risk assets. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broad crypto market, lost 6.1% over 24 hours, and bitcoin (BTC), seen by some as a haven investment, dropped 2.9%. Gold futures, a more traditional refuge, rose 1.3% from their close. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the overnight attack, which also targeted Iran's top military leaders, was aimed at rolling back Iran's nuclear program and missile capabilities. Iran, which has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction, responded by launching 100 suicide drones toward Israeli territory, though a more concerted reaction is anticipated. The strike came less than 24 hours after the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran was not complying with uranium enrichment limits. The U.S. said it was not involved in the attack, which killed some of Iran's military leaders. The escalation saw risk assets across the board plunge. Japan's Nikkei dropped around 0.9%, U.S. index futures fell 1.2% and the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.35%. U.S. crude oil futures, on the other hand, rose more than 6% to $73, with Brent crude spiking 14% at one point. Gold surged to $3,445 per ounce, approaching its all-time high. Cryptocurrencies' declines dashed gains eked out earlier in the week on the back of ETF approval speculation. Solana's sol SOL, in particular, had rallied on reports the SEC asked ETF issuers to update their S-1 filings, potentially accelerating the launch timeline. SOL is down nearly 9.5% in the last 24 hours. 'Overnight, reports surfaced that the SEC has asked Solana ETF issuers to update S-1 filings, triggering a sharp rally in SOL,' Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk. 'Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart remain optimistic, assigning a 90% probability of approval by year-end, with potential approvals coming as soon as July or within three to five weeks of the updated filings,' Ostrovskis said. As a result, he said, the market is 'now relatively underexposed to SOL and related assets, which makes the current setup particularly interesting to watch.' Despite the optimism and growing inflows into spot crypto ETFs, with BTC funds bringing in $939 million month-to-date and ETH seeing $811 million in net inflows, investors are now focused on the Middle East. Polymarket traders are weighing a 91% chance that Iran will retaliate against Israel this month, while the perceived odds of U.S. military action against Iran jumped from a mere 4% to 28%. Stay alert! Crypto June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged. June 16: Brazil's B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil's securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices. Macro June 15-17: G7 2025 Summit (Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada) June 17: The U.S. Senate will vote on the final passage of the bill Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (the GENIUS Act of 2025). Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, $-0.12 Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is voting on a proposal to launch DRIP, an $80M incentives program targeting specific DeFi activity. Managed by a foundation-led committee, DRIP would reward users directly and allow the DAO to shut it down via vote. Voting ends June 20. Unlocks June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $15.04 million. June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $9.70 million. June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $31.28 million. June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $37.26 million. June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $10.43 million. Token Launches June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon's sunsetting process ends June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN). June 14: Incrypted Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) June 18-19: Canadian Blockchain Consortium's 2nd Annual Policy Summit (Ottawa) June 19-21: BTC Prague 2025 June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute's Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington) June 26: The Injective Summit (New York) June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France) Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues saw a sharp reset. After peaking above $55 billion on June 12, total OI dropped to a the month's low of $49.31 billion, according to Velo data. Binance shed over $2.5 billion overnight, alongside broad risk reduction across OKX, Bybit, Deribit and Hyperliquid. The pullback unwinds much of the steady build seen earlier this month. Options positioning also turned more defensive, with Deribit data showing the BTC and ETH put/call ratios climbing to 1.28 and 1.25, respectively. While upside strikes like $140K (BTC) and $3,200 (ETH) still hold large call interest, the majority of June 27 exposure remains out-of-the-money. The shift suggests growing demand for downside protection alongside lingering upside optionality. Funding remains broadly negative, especially across altcoins. ETH sits at –7.99% on Deribit and BTC at –1.06%. Sharp discounts persist for DOT (–15.2%), LINK (–15.1%) and 1000SHIB (–44.5%). HYPE (+8.27% on Hyperliquid) and AAVE (+9.95% on Bybit) are among the few to show long bias. Despite Tuesday's $1.16 billion in liquidations, leverage remains elevated. Coinglass data shows 90% of liquidations came from longs. As of June 13, bitcoin liquidation heatmaps highlight up to $84 million in long-side OI between $102K and $104K. These levels remain untriggered, but could amplify downside if breached. BTC is down 1.08% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $104,889.07 (24hrs: -2.42%) ETH is down 4.48% at $2,523.28 (24hrs: -8.81%) CoinDesk 20 is down 3.2% at 3,007.21 (24hrs: -6.04%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.11% BTC funding rate is at 0.0018% (1.9776% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.44% at 98.35 Gold futures are up 1.25% at $3,445.00 Silver futures are up 0.47% at $36.47 Nikkei 225 closed down 0.89% at 37,834.25 Hang Seng closed down 0.59% at 23,892.56 FTSE is down 0.38% at 8,851.53 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.37% at 5,287.21 DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.24% at 42,967.62 S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 6,045.26 Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.24% at 19,662.48 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.35% at 26,615.75 S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.30% at 2,617.09 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.365% E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.16% at 5,979.50 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 21,621.50 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 1.18% at 42,483.00 BTC Dominance: 64.77 (0.70%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02412 (-3.52%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 928 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $52.43 Total Fees: 4.86 BTC / $508,710.78 CME Futures Open Interest: 150,705 BTC BTC priced in gold: 30.6 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 8.66% Ether continues to face resistance at the daily order block, with the price dropping below Monday's high as tensions ramp up in the Middle East. Earlier today, it briefly traded below Monday's low before reclaiming that level. A daily close above Monday's low of $2480 — aligned with the 200-day exponential moving average, which has served as key support since May — would be an encouraging sign of strength. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $379.76 (-1.9%), -2.63% at $369.78 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $241.05 (-3.84%), 2.1% at $236 Circle (CRCL): closed at $106.54 (-9.1%), +1.32% at $108.1 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.44 (+0.08%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.82 (-3.24%), 3.41% at $15.28 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.21 (-3.22%), -3.33% at $9.87 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.14 (-0.9%), -2.55% at $11.83 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.71 (-2.61%), -2.99% at $9.42 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.61 (-1.95%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.74 (-3.09%), -2.41% at $30 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.62 (+1.74%) Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flow: $86.3 million Cumulative net flows: $45.29 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.21 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: $112.3 million Cumulative net flows: $3.87 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.92 million Source: Farside Investors In the past 24 hours, 248,759 traders were liquidated , with total liquidations coming in at $1.16 billion according to CoinGlass data. Bitcoin Tumbles Below $104K as Israel Strikes Iran (CoinDesk): Israel said it launched a 'precise, preemptive strike' to neutralize the country's nuclear program. Judge Orders Trump to Return California National Guard to Newsom (The Wall Street Journal): A federal judge ruled Trump violated the Tenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution by unlawfully taking control of California's National Guard. An appeals court has paused the order pending review. Bitcoin 'Skew' Slides as Oil Prices Surge 6% on Israel-Iran Tensions (CoinDesk): The seven-day skew fell to its lowest since April, indicating increased demand for put options over calls after Israel's attack. Bitcoin's price fell to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $103,150. Oil Curve Shift Shows Fears of Protracted Mideast Conflict (Bloomberg): A commodities strategist warned that escalation could disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping, threatening 14 million barrels a day and potentially driving oil prices as high as $120. Single Bitcoin Trader Loses $200M as Crypto Bulls See $1B Liquidations (CoinDesk): About 247,000 traders were liquidated in the past day as $1.15 billion in positions were wiped out following overly bullish sentiment fueled by Circle's IPO and renewed U.S. enthusiasm for DeFi. Ripple, SEC File Joint Motion to Release $125M Held in Escrow (CoinDesk): The proposed resolution would return $75 million to Ripple and grant $50 million to the SEC, aiming to avoid further litigation and settle outstanding appeals. Replaces TKTK with "Thursday" in Market Movements section. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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13-06-2025
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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Drops as Mideast Tensions Rise, but $200K Still In Play
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) A weaker dollar, subdued inflation and heightened tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the crypto market's trajectory, giving bitcoin (BTC) room to run in the future, while pushing it down in the near term. While the largest cryptocurrency is lower today, analysts say a price of $200,000 is in play by year-end. One influence is the U.S. interest rate. Consumer prices rose less than forecast last month, increasing the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which would bolster risk assets including cryptocurrencies. With core inflation stable at 2.8%, traders now largely expect two cuts this year beginning in September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Then there's the Middle East. The U.S. said yesterday it was moving people out of the region over heightened security risk and amid reports Israel is considering military action against Iran. Earlier today, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, ruled that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation duties for the first time in 20 years. With tensions rising, investors are ditching the dollar in favor of safe havens including gold and the Swiss franc as they position for a potential conflict. That has also pushed down cryptocurrency prices, with BTC losing 1.7% of its value in the last 24 hours and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index retreating 2.25%. 'Bitcoin continues to trade like a classic risk-on asset, responding sharply to macro tailwinds,' Boris Alergant, head of institutional partnerships at Babylon and a former Ripple and JPMorgan executive, told CoinDesk. 'That said, the broader picture for BTC remains optimistic,' Alergant said. 'More institutions are emulating MicroStrategy's BTC treasury strategy, creating a steady base of structural demand.' Still, the SEC's recent willingness to greenlight ETF applications tied to altcoins such as solana, led to predictions of an 'altcoin ETF summer' while signals of regulatory friendliness toward staking and protocol-based yield helped lift DeFi tokens. 'This marks the first time the SEC has shown coordinated openness to both layer-1 assets and the DeFi ecosystem,' Youwei Yang, chief economist at BIT Mining, told CoinDesk in an emailed statement. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, pointed to $900 million in new digital asset fund inflows this week, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding. 'This resurgence comes as bitcoin trades near all-time highs and global money supply conditions loosen, suggesting there could be further upside potential for digital asset prices more broadly,' he said. Keep in mind, though, the balance of global events. Tame inflation could help boost risk assets, yet unexpected escalation in the Middle East could reverse those gains. Stay alert! Crypto June 12, 10 a.m.: Coinbase's State of Crypto Summit 2025 (New York). Livestream link. June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged. June 16: Brazil's B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil's securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices. Macro June 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May producer price inflation data. Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.4% Core PPI YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.1% PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.5% PPI YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.4% June 12, 3 p.m.: Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census releases May inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 2.8% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 47.3% June 15-17: G7 2025 Summit (Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada) Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market Governance votes & calls ApeCoin DAO is weighing scrapping the decentralized autonomous organization and launching ApeCo to 'supercharge the APE ecosystem.' The discussion is scheduled to end later today. Arbitrum DAO is voting on a proposal to launch DRIP, an $80M incentives program targeting specific DeFi activity. Managed by a foundation-led committee, DRIP would reward users directly and allow the DAO to shut it down via vote. Voting ends June 20. June 12, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to host its Planetary Call with a 'special guest.' Unlocks June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.44 million. June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.06 million. June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million. June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $35.74 million. June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $41.78 million. June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.10 million. Token Launches June 12: Coinbase to list Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), Subsquid (SQD) and PancakeSwap (CAKE). June 12: Ethena (ENA) and Solayer (LAYER) to be listed on June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon's sunsetting process ends June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN). Day 3 of 3: Ripple's Apex 2025 (Singapore) June 14: Incrypted Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) June 18-19: Canadian Blockchain Consortium's 2nd Annual Policy Summit (Ottawa) June 19-21: BTC Prague 2025 June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute's Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington) June 26: The Injective Summit (New York) June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France) By Oliver Knight SPX6900 (SPX), one of many AI agent memecoins that spawned in the latter half of 2024, rocketed to a record high of $1.71 on Wednesday, defying a wider market sell-off prompted by political tensions involving Iran. The project's goal is to flip the entire U.S. stock market in terms of capitalization and while it's a few trillion dollars away, it has amassed a $1.7 billion market cap. Crypto analyst and social media personality Murad famously racked up a $40 million unrealized loss earlier this year. That loss has become a $55 million gain due to the token's ascent. SPX remains one of just a handful of altcoins that are positive over the past 24 hours as much of the market continues to reel over fears that a fighting could escalate in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose significantly overnight, which is historically a sign of impending conflict. CoinMarketCap's AI agent memecoin sector is down by 3.5%. Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit has reached $36.7 billion, the highest level seen this month. The dominant expiry remains June 27 with over $13.8 billion in notional open interest, and bullish call positioning continuing to cluster at the $140,000 strike. The put/call ratio stands at 0.60, reflecting a moderate bias toward calls, though less so than in recent sessions. Ether options open interest has climbed to a yearly high of $6.87 billion on Deribit. More than $2.38 billion in notional value is tied to the June 27 expiry, with calls heavily concentrated at the $3,000 strike where $614 million is positioned. The put/call ratio sits at 0.45, indicating a strong preference for upside exposure into the quarter-end. BTC funding rates have stabilized across major venues, with Deribit at 12.84% APR, Bybit at 10.75%, and Binance at 8.12%, according to data from Velo. This supports the view that long positioning remains elevated, but not at extremes. Aggregate futures open interest stands at $55.4 billion across Binance, Bybit, OKX, Deribit and Hyperliquid with Binance accounting for $23.3 billion of that total, based on Velo data. BTC is down 1.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,534.98 (24hrs: -1.77%) ETH is down 2.21% at $2,753.40 (24hrs: -0.8%) CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% at 3,198.06 (24hrs: -2.52%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05% BTC funding rate is at 0.0075% (8.1731% annualized) on Binance DXY is down 0.57% at 98.07 Gold futures are up 1.26% at $3,385.80 Silver futures are down 0.54% at $36.06 Nikkei 225 closed down 0.65% at 38,173.09 Hang Seng closed down 1.36% at 24,035.38 FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,851.13 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.87% at 5,346.38 DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 42,865.77 S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,022.24 Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.50% at 19,615.88 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.37% at 26,524.16 S&P 40 Latin America closed up +1.42% at 2,625.01 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.39% E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.41% at 6,004.25 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 21,815.50 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.60% at 42,649.00 BTC Dominance: 64.07 (-0.08%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02562 (0.43%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $54.7 Total Fees: 4.76 BTC / $521,445 CME Futures Open Interest: 150,075 BTC BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04% Solana's sol (SOL) failed to find acceptance above the 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe, leading to a deviation back below key moving averages. The 100-day EMA is currently providing support. Notably, SOL closed below Monday's high in the previous session, presenting a clean setup for a Monday Range strategy. If the pullback continues, Monday's low at $149.68 serves as a key downside target. This level also aligns with a weekly demand zone (order block), potentially acting as a strong support area. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $387.11 (-1.04%), -1.47% at $381.43 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $250.68 (-1.67%), -1.11% at $247.90 Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.2 (+10.66%), unchanged in pre-market Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.42 (-3.4%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.35 (-0.85%), -2.08% at $16.01 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.55 (+0.96%), -1.42% at $10.40 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.25 (-4.07%), -1.22% at $12.10 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.97 (-1.58%), -1.6% at $9.81 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20 (-1.38%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.72 (+0.7%), -0.69% at $31.50 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.08 (-7.91%), +1.38% at $31.51 Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flow: $164.6 million Cumulative net flows: $45.20 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.21 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: $240.3 million Cumulative net flows: $3.76 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.84 million Source: Farside Investors The chart from TheTie shows bitcoin generally moved in the same direction as the U.S. equity market as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. The cryptocurrency is nevertheless more volatile than the equity benchmark. Bitcoin briefly decoupled around April as it sold off while equities were relatively steady. Bitcoin at $200K by Year-End Is Now Firmly in Play, Analyst Says After Muted U.S. Inflation Data (CoinDesk): Matt Mena says bitcoin could benefit from improving macro clarity, institutional adoption, treasury demand and state-level reserve programs that may boost ETF inflows and strengthen its role in global portfolios. Strong Uptake at 10-Year U.S. Debt Sale Eases Demand Concerns, 30-Year Sale's Up Next (CoinDesk): Strong demand for 10-year Treasuries countered concerns over waning appetite for U.S. debt, now above $36 trillion, while some analysts cited bitcoin and gold as hedges against mounting fiscal risks. Marines to Deploy on L.A. Streets Within Two Days With Authority to Detain Civilians (Reuters): The 700 Marines have completed training in deescalation and crowd control and will join National Guard forces to help protect federal personnel and property under Title 10 of U.S. Code. Trump Is Pushing Allies Away and Closer to Each Other (The New York Times): The U.K., France, Canada and other mid-sized allies are deepening cooperation as Trump's unilateralism and tariff policy strain their longstanding ties with the U.S. Where Russia Is Advancing in Ukraine and What It Hopes to Gain (The Wall Street Journal): Russia made its largest monthly gains since late 2022 in May, aiming to convince Ukraine's allies that continued military and financial aid is pointless because Russia's victory is inevitable. Mercurity Fintech Plans $800M Bitcoin Treasury, Eyes Russell 2000 Inclusion (CoinDesk): The company said it will use the funds to acquire bitcoin, secure it with blockchain-native custody, and integrate it into a platform combining tokenized treasuries and staking services. Sign in to access your portfolio
