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The Herald Scotland
5 days ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Edinburgh's West Town: A new city rising – or a chance slipping away?
All of this is slated for West Edinburgh, an area stretching from Maybury out to the airport, close to the tram line and the A8. A new community of high-quality homes and green space. This west Edinburgh story is only just beginning and for several reasons it should be one of the most notable developments in the whole of the UK. The population of Scotland's capital is growing. And the demand for housing, whether rented or owner-occupied, is soaring. Renters need them. Buyers want them. Businesses demand them. Politicians talk about them. Frank O'Donnell (Image: Handout) In short, it's the subject that (almost) everyone agrees on: we need more houses to underpin economic growth, not only in rural areas but also in our cities. Planning permission has already been granted for homes in the Garden District. In December permission was granted for a further 10,000 homes alongside the tram line to the Airport in two developments known as West Town and Elements Edinburgh. But progress remains painfully slow. There has been much talk about Scotland (and Britain's) cumbersome planning system. A system that seems to revel in delay, one that sometimes appears to prioritise red tape, and even wildlife, over people. And one which often drives international investment elsewhere. This is partly true. We do need faster decisions. But that's only half the story. After planning, housebuilders need to pay money to the local authority towards the building of schools, health centres and public transport, known as Section 75 contributions. Few would argue with this as a principle. Why should Edinburgh City Council foot the bill to upgrade roads and build new schools? But the level of contributions in Edinburgh are now leaving developers struggling for breath and unable to see a way forward. The contributions, which run into tens of millions for some developments, are now a significant barrier to spades in the ground. But this is not all. Finding the construction companies that are able to take on the work is also a challenge, contributing further to delays and increased costs. If you are already a homeowner in Edinburgh you might shrug your shoulders and ask: 'so what if some new houses are delayed?' But the chronic shortage of housing – estimated at over 100,000 in Scotland since the financial crash in 2008 – is acting as a drag on investment and jobs for Scotland's economy which affects us all. More than this, good quality housing is central to a fairer, sustainable and thriving Scottish economy and society. In Edinburgh, the issue is particularly acute. Read more from our Future of Edinburgh series The city's private rented sector has the highest rents in Scotland and soaring rental inflation is pushing families towards an already overstretched social sector, and in some cases to homelessness. In Edinburgh the average house price is almost 80% higher than the Scottish average. In the private rented sector, the average three bed rental price is around £1450 per month, £300 higher than the Scottish average. The Scottish Housing Regulator has stated that the housing system in Edinburgh is in systemic failure, with further pressures looming related to asylum and refugee arrivals in the city. For more than 20 years Edinburgh has largely subcontracted its needs for new homes to local authority neighbours in West, East and Midlothian. Cross the city boundary to the south around Gilmerton and Dalkeith and you quickly get a flavour of this. And it's continuing. In 2024, East Lothian and Midlothian had the highest rate of new build completions in Scotland. While this has helped to meet demand – a great number of families living outside the city are commuting back into the city daily for work. This puts pressure on road and increases air pollution. Housing emergency It is now 19 months since Edinburgh formally declared a Housing Emergency in the city. The Scottish Government followed with a national housing emergency in May 2024. The word emergency typically implies a need for immediate action and evokes images of stop-everything-else-and-deal-with-this. There should be sirens but the silence is deafening. Instead of an emergency imagine a piece of paper sitting in an in-tray for two months, followed by an oblique and unhelpful response delivered via second class post. Declaring an emergency could have been a useful vehicle to catalyse urgent action. Instead it is becoming a policy joke that isn't very funny. The problem is acute in rural areas where a lack of homes threatens to stall Scotland's economic growth and our ability to take advantage of the growth in renewable energy. But in Scotland's capital the issue is, for different reasons, especially problematic. Leadership There is no shortage of goodwill. Paul Lawrence, the new chief executive of Edinburgh City Council, came from economic development and understands only too well the importance of getting this right. And that doing so, would likely mark his tenure as a major success. The Scottish Government, the UK government and the industry are all making the right noises. What is absent is real knock-heads-together leadership of the kind we see in English cities like Manchester. A structure which allows one department to get everyone around the table to work through problems and move things on. Right now, this feels like a system problem with no clear way forward. There isn't even a national housebuilding target in Scotland, unlike in England. And yet Scotland does have examples of success. Look west at the Clyde Gateway project and you will see progress across local authority boundaries, and real positivity and leadership. Perhaps we need west Edinburgh to be renamed Forth Gateway – or something more imaginative. West Edinburgh could be a model of modern, green, high-density, liveable city planning – the kind of place other countries write case studies about. The opportunity is clear. Act now, or the prize of a new urban district – and all it could deliver – will slip through our fingers. Frank O'Donnell is a former editor of the Edinburgh Evening News and The Scotsman, and a senior partner with Charlotte Street Partners
India Today
6 days ago
- Politics
- India Today
India vs Pakistan: The battle for air superiority
(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 9, 2025)As the dust settles over the India-Pakistan conflict—triggered by India's missile strikes on nine terrorist hubs in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Punjab province in response to the Islamabad-sponsored terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April—it is time for a reckoning of how the two adversaries fared. Uniquely, over four intense, dramatic days (May 7-10), the theatre of war was the skies on either side of the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border. Airpower was the key factor, manifested not in the dogfights of yore, but their modern equivalent, comprising precise strikes, electronic warfare and smart coordination between aircraft, ground radars and airborne early warning and control system (AEW&CS)/ Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. Drones and missiles were used aplenty by Pakistan, and India's multi-layered air defence (AD) system rose to the occasion like never before. According to the Indian Army, its air defence units neutralised nearly 800-900 Pakistani drones during Operation early on May 7, the Pakistani air defence had no immediate answer to the loitering munitions/ kamikaze drones, and SCALP/ Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and HAMMER bombs fired from the Rafales of the Indian Air Force (IAF) that destroyed the terrorist camps, the Pakistan Air Force's (PAF) J-10CEs, F-16s and JF-17 fighter jets did pose a threat. Indeed, Pakistan has claimed—without definitive proof or explicit acknowledgement from India—that several Indian jets were lost. Significantly, wary of each other's missiles, particularly those launched beyond visual range (BVR), both forces operated well within their respective air space. However, on May 8 and 10, after Indian missile and drone strikes took out vital Pakistani air defence radars in Lahore and Karachi—one precious PAF AWACS was reportedly lost too—its air defence systems were rendered toothless, largely driving the PAF from the skies. So, after Pakistan targeted Indian air bases and military installations with drones and missiles on May 9 and 10—almost all of which were intercepted and shot to pieces—it was helpless before India's retaliatory barrage of SCALP and BrahMos supersonic missiles, fired by aircraft and from the ground on eight Pakistani air bases, including the Nur Khan base near Rawalpindi, the general headquarters of the Pakistan army. Thus chastened, Pakistan is said to have called for a Sindoor was a demonstration of Indian precision and reach, and showcased India's capability to strike any target in Pakistan at will. Frank O'Donnell, senior research adviser at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network and non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, says that it signals India's ability for precision strikes on targets within each base and suggests its implicit capacity to incapacitate these bases if desired. 'The very short flight time of India's air-to-ground missiles, and especially its reported use of the supersonic BrahMos, leveraged the continuing challenge for Pakistan of operationalising missile defence systems and the extreme difficulty of blocking cruise missile strikes. However, this challenge is also shared by India,' he says. OPPOSING AIR WARRIORSThough in recent decades India has held a qualitative and numerical advantage in air superiority over Pakistan, the latter's acquisition of sophisticated Chinese aircraft has led analysts to suggest that the technological disparity is India's frontline fighter jets, the Mirage 2000H, armed with the Thales RDY radar (range: 100-130 km) and MICA missiles (both beyond visual range or BVR and short range or SR, with a reach of 60-80 km), excels in precision strikes but has an ageing airframe. The MiG-29UPG, with Zhuk-ME radar (range: 120 km) and R-77 missiles (BVR, with a range of 80-100 km) is agile, but lags in networking. The Su-30MKI, equipped with a Bars PESA radar (or a Passive Electronically Scanned Array radar with a 200 km range) and BrahMos missiles, offers long-range strike capability but has a large radar cross-section, meaning it can be detected by enemy radars. The Rafale has an RBE2 AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar and SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, which ensures data fusion across electromagnetic, laser and infrared domains to protect it from threats. Both PESA and AESA radars can track multiple targets at once. The Rafale, armed with Meteor and SCALP missiles and HAMMER precision-guided munition, is India's most advanced jet, but its small fleet size limits the other side, Pakistan's Chinese J-10C fighters, armed with PL-15E BVR missiles, and equipped with dual-pulse motors and AESA seekers, mounted a challenge for the IAF. The J-10CE's AESA radar and its integration with Saab 2000 Erieye AEWC enables long-range engagements, while the JF-17's KLJ-7A radar is less capable but still effective with networked Sindoor drew global attention to a possible aerial duel between the Rafale and J-10C fighters—both 4.5-generation multirole fighters. 'Rafale is a proven platform, as it has been used in combat in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq and Syria, while J-10 C has not seen any combat,' says a key IAF aviation experts claim that Pakistan's J-10C, manufactured by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, lags behind the Rafale, made by the French firm Dassault, in armament. The J-10C has 11 hardpoints (mounting points to carry weapons) and a six-tonne load capacity. The Rafale has 14 hardpoints and a nine-tonne capacity, including nuclear-capable munitions. The Rafale's 24-tonne take-off weight exceeds the J-10C's 19 tonnes, offering greater payload flexibility, though the J-10C reaches a higher 18,000-metre ceiling, compared to the Rafale's 16,000 metres. The J-10C excels in high-altitude performance; the Rafale dominates in versatility and range. Experts say that the Rafale holds a slight edge in terms of sensor fusion and missile performance. However, uncertainty persists over Pakistan's unverified claims of downing Indian jets, including evidence does not confirm that a Rafale was downed by a J-10C-fired PL-15E missile. However, the loss of at least one Rafale demands an urgent review of technical and tactical vulnerabilities,' notes O'Donnell. He adds that Pakistan and China have valuable combat data about western aircraft, aiding their fighter modernisation, while Pakistan's swift acquisition of Chinese platforms outpaces India's sluggish defence procurement, exacerbating the IAF's declining squadron analyst Shreyas Deshmukh, research associate at the Delhi Policy Group, says that the Rafale vs J-10C comparison reflects a contest for battlefield superiority, given their similar capabilities. Though debris, including PL-15E remnants and possible MICA missile fragments from an IAF jet, were reportedly recovered, Deshmukh asserts that 'no concrete evidence supports claims of aerial losses on either side'. INDIA'S AIR DEFENCE EDGEadvertisementFor India, the real positive to have emerged from Operation Sindoor is the overwhelming success of its integrated air defence system. The two units that synergised perfectly to nullify all projectiles hurled at India are the IAF's Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) and the army's Akashteer. The IACCS is an automated command and control system that integrates data at its control centres from air defence assets like ground-based radar, airborne sensors, AWACS/ AEW&CS, communication nodes and IAF command and control centres. The consolidated data along with real-time updates gives commanders of air defence units an overall situational awareness and full battlefield picture to respond to incoming aerial threats. Similarly, the army's Akashteer is an air defence control and reporting system comprising radars and sensors that are connected to units of its air the integration of the resources of IACCS and Akashteer, the Indian air defence threw up a layered grid. The first layer comprises counter drone systems like D4 and MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence Systems) like Igla-M and Igla-S, while the second layer has low-level air defence (LLAD) guns like Bofors L-70 and ZSU-23-4 Schilka self-propelled system, and short-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) like Pechora, Tunguska and OSA-AK. The third and fourth layers have medium- and long-range SAMs like Pechora, SPYDER, the indigenous Akash and the long-range S-400 Triumf and Barak-8 missile defence systems. India's counter-unmanned aerial system (UAS) technologies also played a major role in detecting and neutralising Pakistani drones. This multi-layered air defence network not only protected Indian air bases, army installations, airports and cities, but also protected Amritsar's Golden Temple from a Pakistani drone and missile attack. In contrast, Pakistan's Chinese HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defence systems failed to detect and intercept the devastating Indian strikes on its air bases on May 10. Early on May 10, Indian strikes took out a Chinese-made LY80 air defence system using a Harpy kamikaze drone at Lahore, while a missile destroyed an HQ-9 system in Karachi. Comparative analysis also suggests that the S-400 surpasses the HQ-9 in performance. 'India's multi-layered air defence systems exhibited greater effectiveness in deployment and integration than their Pakistani counterparts,' a key defence official said. Defence analysts say that for the past two decades, as a probable counter to India's Cold Start Doctrine, which envisages short, swift strikes into Pakistan that would avoid a nuclear escalation, Pakistan has been buying mostly offensive weaponry. 'In contrast, India's strategic focus was on technological advancement and indigenous production, leading to investments in radars such as the ADTCR, Ashwini and Indra (electronically scanned array radars), sensor processing systems, jamming devices, and electronic warfare systems, including drone jammers as well as counter-battery radars,' says Deshmukh. The development of missile systems such as BrahMos and Akash, coupled with the timely procurement of the S-400, has provided India with a significant advantage in non-contact warfare, he adds. Thus, Pakistan's investment in offensive weapons lays bare its weak air defence capabilities, leaving its command and control the conflict reaffirmed that modern warfare is driven by air power, not merely in terms of aircraft but through sensors, missiles, data networks, electronic warfare and unmanned systems. 'Operation Sindoor is a testimony to the power of a capable air force,' notes a senior defence analyst. 'But no country can win future wars without continuous investment in modern air platforms and integrated defence networks.' Despite its strong showing, experts argue that India must not become complacent. The IAF's thinning squadron strength and the slow induction of next-gen air dominance fighters leave gaps that adversaries may exploit in the to India Today MagazineMust Watch
Japan Times
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict
India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbors clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict, former military officers and experts say. Pakistan says India plans a military incursion after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on domestic tourists in Indian Kashmir last month. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to punish the backers of the attack "beyond their imagination." Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack but has warned it will hit back if it is targeted. In 2019, India carried out airstrikes inside Pakistan after the bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir and said it destroyed "terrorist camps." Pakistani jets conducted a retaliatory airstrike and shot down an Indian aircraft during actions spread over two days. The neighbors have fought three wars — in 1948, 1965 and 1971 — and clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region, which both claim. Both acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s and Kashmir is considered one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world. Military experts say neither side will consider nuclear weapons unless pushed to the wall, but even a limited conflict would carry high risks of escalation. They say such a conflict is likely to involve aircraft, missiles or drones, where India and Pakistan are considered closely matched, although India's far greater resources would come into play over a longer period. "Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019," said Frank O'Donnell, a nonresident fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, as they had managed then to clash without nuclear weapons being used. "But without a clear mutual sense of the precise actions, that could trigger inadvertent escalation," he added. Both sides have acquired new military hardware since 2019, opening up new conventional strike options. "Each side will think they are in a better position than last time," said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher based at the University of Technology, Sydney. "It is only when we see actual combat that we will find out." In particular, India believes that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on aging Russian jets. It has since inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, a top Western aircraft, with more on order for its navy. To counter, Pakistan got one of China's most advanced warplanes, the J-10, a rough equivalent of the Rafale, in batches since 2022. It has at least 20 of the aircraft, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. An Indian paramilitary soldier conducts surveillance using binoculars as he stands atop a commercial building in Srinagar, in Indian-controlled Kashmir, on Monday. | AFP-JIJI The planes carry advanced capabilities, with the Rafale armed with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. The J-10 is armed with the comparable PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to brief the media. To plug the gaps in air defenses exposed on both sides in the 2019 conflict, India secured Russia's battle-tested S-400, a mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan obtained the HQ-9 from China, which is based on Russia's S-300, one notch down. "Most certainly in some respects we are better off (than 2019)," said Anil Golani, a former air vice marshal in the Indian Air Force, and the director-general of the New Delhi-based Center for Air Power Studies think tank. "There's a lot of clamor for action in the country but, in my personal assessment, both India and Pakistan are not looking for an all-out conflict," he added. Hanging over any conflict is China, India's rival and Pakistan's close ally and biggest supplier of military equipment. Although the U.S. has urged India and Pakistan to ease tensions, it will closely watch any conflict for insights on Beijing's aerial strength. The Chinese plane and its PL-15 missile have not previously been tested in combat. "It could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology," said Faisal, adding "for India, there is the dilemma of how many air squadrons to commit to the Pakistan front, as it must also guard against China." China and India fought a brief border war in 1962 and the two armies have clashed, most recently in 2022, along their tense Himalayan frontier. Pakistan has a fleet of F-16s, the U.S. aircraft acquired decades back when ties with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were deployed in the 2019 tussle, leading India to lodge protests with the U.S., although New Delhi now enjoys far closer ties with Washington. Fireballs rise during the Pakistani Army's Hammer Strike exercise, a high-intensity field training drill, at the Tilla Field Firing Ranges in Jhelum, Pakistan, on May 1. | Pakistani Inter-Service Public Relations / VIA AFP-JIJI This time, to avoid the political fallout with the F-16 and to take advantage of having a more advanced aircraft, Pakistan will likely spearhead with the Chinese J-10, experts said. But a drone or ground-launched missile strike is considered more likely since neither would risk a pilot being shot down. India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones, getting the Heron Mark 2, and it has U.S. Predator drones on order. Pakistan has acquired Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 — used by Ukraine in its war with Russia — and the Akinci, also from Turkey, according to the Pakistani security official. Amid the standoff, Pakistan carried out a second missile test in three days on Monday and India said it ordered several states to conduct security drills. The countries have shut their land borders, suspended trade, and closed their airspace to each other's airlines, and there have been exchanges of small arms fire across the frontier in Kashmir. India's interior ministry has asked several states to conduct mock security drills on Wednesday to ensure civil preparedness, a government source said Monday. They did not say which states or mention Pakistan or Kashmir. The drills will include air raid warning sirens, evacuation plans and training people to respond in case of any attacks, added the source, who asked not to be named. Earlier, the Pakistani Army said it had tested a Fatah series surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles), two days after a successful launch of the Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km. There was no immediate comment from India on the tests. India's capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile of about 300 km range as well the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The 2019 skirmish almost spiraled out of control, with multiple missile strikes threatened before U.S. intervention calmed the situation down. Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistani Air Force, said that India did not manage to establish deterrence in 2019, so it would aim for a more incisive strike this time, bringing more risks in its wake. Modi said following the 2019 skirmishes that the country had felt the lack of Rafale fighters at the time, which were on order, and suggested that the results of the clash could have been different if it had the French fighter. "If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, it is very risky," said Tufail. "Nuclear-armed countries slugging it out is extremely dangerous."
Business Recorder
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in conflict
India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbours clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict, former military officers and experts say. In 2019, India carried out air strikes inside Pakistan after the bombing of an Indian military convoy in IIOJK and said it destroyed 'terrorist camps'. Pakistani jets conducted a retaliatory air strike and shot down an Indian aircraft during actions spread over two days. The neighbours have fought three wars - in 1948, 1965 and 1971 - and clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region which both claim. Both acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s and Kashmir is considered one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world. Military experts say neither side will consider nuclear weapons unless pushed to the wall, but even a limited conflict would carry high risks of escalation. They say such a conflict is likely to involve aircraft, missiles or drones, where India and Pakistan are considered closely matched, although India's far greater resources would come into play over a longer period. 'Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019,' said Frank O'Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington, as they had managed then to clash without nuclear weapons being used. 'But without a clear mutual sense of the precise actions, that could trigger inadvertent escalation,' he added. Both sides have acquired new military hardware since 2019, opening up new conventional strike options. 'Each side will think they are in a better position than last time,' said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher based at the University of Technology, Sydney. 'It is only when we see actual combat that we will find out.' In particular, India believes that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on ageing Russian jets. It has since inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, a top Western aircraft, with more on order for its navy. To counter, Pakistan got one of China's most advanced war planes, the J-10, a rough equivalent of the Rafale, in batches since 2022. It has at least 20 of the aircraft, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. The planes carry advanced capabilities, with the Rafale armed with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. The J-10 is armed with the comparable PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official who declined to be identified because they were not authorised to brief the media. To plug the gaps in air defences exposed on both sides in the 2019 conflict, India secured Russia's battle-tested S-400, a mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan obtained the HQ-9 from China, which is based on Russia's S-300, one notch down. 'Most certainly in some respects we are better off (than 2019),' said Anil Golani, a former air vice marshal in the Indian Air Force, and the director general of the Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies think tank. 'There's a lot of clamour for action in the country but, in my personal assessment, both India and Pakistan are not looking for an all-out conflict,' he added. Hanging over any conflict is China, India's rival and Pakistan's close ally and biggest supplier of military equipment. Although the US has urged India and Pakistan to ease tensions, it will closely watch any conflict for insights on Beijing's aerial strength. The Chinese plane and its PL-15 missile have not previously been tested in combat. 'It could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology,' said Faisal, adding 'for India, there is the dilemma of how many air squadrons to commit to the Pakistan front, as it must also guard against China.' China and India fought a brief border war in 1962 and the two armies have clashed, most recently in 2022, along their tense Himalayan frontier. Pakistan has a fleet of F-16s, the US aircraft acquired decades back when ties with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were deployed in the 2019 tussle, leading India to lodge protests with the US, although New Delhi now enjoys far closer ties with Washington. This time, to avoid the political fallout with the F-16 and to take advantage of having a more advanced aircraft, Pakistan will likely spearhead with the Chinese J-10, experts said. But a drone or ground-launched missile strike is considered more likely since neither would risk a pilot being shot down. India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones, getting the Heron Mark 2, and it has US Predator drones on order. Pakistan has acquired Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 - used by Ukraine in its war with Russia - and the Akinci, also from Turkey, according to the Pakistani security official. Amid the standoff, Pakistan tested a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km (280 miles) on Saturday, to show that the armed forces were ready to 'safeguard national security against any aggression,' according to a statement from the country's military. Pakistan also has a range of short-range and medium-range missiles, capable of being fired from ground, sea and air. There was no immediate comment from India on the test. India's capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile of about 300 km range as well the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The 2019 skirmish almost spiralled out of control, with multiple missile strikes threatened before US intervention calmed the situation down. Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistani air force, said that India did not manage to establish deterrence in 2019, so it would aim for a more incisive strike this time, bringing more risks in its wake. Modi said following the 2019 skirmishes that the country had felt the lack of Rafale fighters at the time, which were on order, and suggested that the results of the clash could have been different if it had the French fighter. 'If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, it is very risky,' said Tufail. 'Nuclear-armed countries slugging it out is extremely dangerous.'Reuters Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
AsiaOne
05-05-2025
- Politics
- AsiaOne
With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict, Asia News
ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI — India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbours clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict, former military officers and experts say. Pakistan says India plans a military incursion after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on domestic tourists in Indian Kashmir last month. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to punish the backers of the attack "beyond their imagination". Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack but has warned it will hit back if it is targeted. In 2019, India carried out air strikes inside Pakistan after the bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir and said it destroyed "terrorist camps". Pakistani jets conducted a retaliatory air strike and shot down an Indian aircraft during actions spread over two days. The neighbours have fought three wars — in 1948, 1965 and 1971 — and clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region which both claim. Both acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s and Kashmir is considered one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world. Military experts say neither side will consider nuclear weapons unless pushed to the wall, but even a limited conflict would carry high risks of escalation. They say such a conflict is likely to involve aircraft, missiles or drones, where India and Pakistan are considered closely matched, although India's far greater resources would come into play over a longer period. "Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019," said Frank O'Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington, as they had managed then to clash without nuclear weapons being used. "But without a clear mutual sense of the precise actions, that could trigger inadvertent escalation," he added. Both sides have acquired new military hardware since 2019, opening up new conventional strike options. "Each side will think they are in a better position than last time," said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher based at the University of Technology, Sydney. "It is only when we see actual combat that we will find out." In particular, India believes that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on ageing Russian jets. It has since inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, a top Western aircraft, with more on order for its navy. To counter, Pakistan got one of China's most advanced war planes, the J-10, a rough equivalent of the Rafale, in batches since 2022. It has at least 20 of the aircraft, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. The planes carry advanced capabilities, with the Rafale armed with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. The J-10 is armed with the comparable PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official who declined to be identified because they were not authorised to brief the media. [[nid:717446]] To plug the gaps in air defences exposed on both sides in the 2019 conflict, India secured Russia's battle-tested S-400, a mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan obtained the HQ-9 from China, which is based on Russia's S-300, one notch down. 'Clamour for action' "Most certainly in some respects we are better off (than 2019)," said Anil Golani, a former air vice marshal in the Indian Air Force, and the director general of the Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies think tank. "There's a lot of clamour for action in the country but, in my personal assessment, both India and Pakistan are not looking for an all-out conflict," he added. Hanging over any conflict is China, India's rival and Pakistan's close ally and biggest supplier of military equipment. Although the US has urged India and Pakistan to ease tensions, it will closely watch any conflict for insights on Beijing's aerial strength. The Chinese plane and its PL-15 missile have not previously been tested in combat. "It could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology," said Faisal, adding "for India, there is the dilemma of how many air squadrons to commit to the Pakistan front, as it must also guard against China." China and India fought a brief border war in 1962 and the two armies have clashed, most recently in 2022, along their tense Himalayan frontier. Pakistan has a fleet of F-16s, the US aircraft acquired decades back when ties with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were deployed in the 2019 tussle, leading India to lodge protests with the US, although New Delhi now enjoys far closer ties with Washington. This time, to avoid the political fallout with the F-16 and to take advantage of having a more advanced aircraft, Pakistan will likely spearhead with the Chinese J-10, experts said. But a drone or ground-launched missile strike is considered more likely since neither would risk a pilot being shot down. India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones, getting the Heron Mark 2, and it has US Predator drones on order. Pakistan has acquired Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 — used by Ukraine in its war with Russia — and the Akinci, also from Turkey, according to the Pakistani security official. Amid the standoff, Pakistan tested a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450km on Saturday, to show that the armed forces were ready to "safeguard national security against any aggression," according to a statement from the country's military. Pakistan also has a range of short-range and medium-range missiles, capable of being fired from ground, sea and air. There was no immediate comment from India on the test. India's capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile of about 300km range as well the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The 2019 skirmish almost spiralled out of control, with multiple missile strikes threatened before US intervention calmed the situation down. Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistani air force, said that India did not manage to establish deterrence in 2019, so it would aim for a more incisive strike this time, bringing more risks in its wake. Modi said following the 2019 skirmishes that the country had felt the lack of Rafale fighters at the time, which were on order, and suggested that the results of the clash could have been different if it had the French fighter. "If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, it is very risky," said Tufail. "Nuclear-armed countries slugging it out is extremely dangerous." [[nid:717540]]
