Latest news with #FrançoisBayrou
Local France
11 hours ago
- Politics
- Local France
OPINION: France is a mess, but it's far from the only country floundering
A year ago, France had no government and no obvious means of acquiring one. Enter Michel Barnier in September. Exit Michel Barnier in December. François Bayrou, the fourth Prime Minister in 11 months, took his place. Bayrou's exit seems likely in October or November. This year, at least, we should be spared a summer of politics or politicking. Normal warfare has been suspended until the Autumn. An IFOP opinion poll last weekend found that President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating has fallen to its lowest ever level – 19 percent. Bayrou, who was already the least popular Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic (ie for 67 years), has slumped to 13 percent. It is now less than two years (gulp) before France elects a new President of the Republic. READ ALSO : ANALYSIS: Who's who in France's 2027 presidential election race✎ The democratic health of the country has reached its most disturbing ebb since the 1950s or maybe the 1930s (ignoring the hiatus of 1940-44). The Centre and Centre-right government is exploring unseen depths of unpopularity. The Left is not only divided but its divisions and sub-divisions are divided. Advertisement France's most popular politician, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, is also one of its most unpopular, with negative ratings in the high 40s. She is, in any case, banned from running for President in 2027 after being found guilty of stealing money from the European Union last March. Her appeal will be heard in the Spring. As things stand, the front-runner for the presidency is her 29-year-old deputy, Jordan Bardella, who proved in last year's parliamentary election to be a pretty (and petty) TikTok politician incapable of defending his own policies without a script. Whoever does enter the Elysée in 22 months' time will inherit a fiscal time-bomb. The unserious reactions to François Bayrou's truth-or-consequences budget plan last week suggest that the French – both politicians and people – are not yet willing to confront the €1.3 trillion consequences of a half-century of state overspending. At the same time, France faces rising unemployment, deep divisions over immigration and the challenges of two forever wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Like the rest of the EU, it is still scrambling to grasp the implications of a second Trump presidency in the US which is anti-democratic, anti-truthful and anti-European. What a mess. And yet the mess is not French alone. The politics of the USA, Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium are equally poisonous and divided. Democracy and truth have gone out of fashion. The old half-truths and approximations which allowed democracy to function have been overwhelmed by outright falsehoods. Political parties have been pushed aside by the cult of personality – from Donald Trump to Nigel Farage to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Social media and slanted 24-hour TV news channels are partly to blame. The rule of acknowledged fact and widely accepted opinion is over. It is unlikely to return. Young people never read newspapers and seldom consult traditional news sites on line. In other words, the extreme fragility of French politics in 2025 cannot be understood by looking at France alone. It is the result of a coupling of the old and the new, the domestic and the global. Advertisement There is a traditional and permanent French disenchantment with politics – a constant desire for change and a perpetual rejection of all changes. To this has been added the aggressive cynicism of the social media age which sees all mainstream politicians as corrupt and all received wisdom as a conspiracy. This is fertile ground for the Far Right, as shown by the success of Donald Trump and the surge of support for Nigel Farage in the UK. I used to argue that the Far Right could not be elected in France. I am no longer so sure. In France, we are lucky, perhaps, in having ineffectual Far Right leaders. Marine Le Pen is disturbingly likeable if you meet her but she lacks the hallucinatory mass appeal of a Trump. Bardella is good on social media but feeble on TV. France, I fear, would be ripe for plucking by a demagogue with genuine charisma and a more convincingly intellectual manner – a right-wing Mélenchon. Advertisement If not the Far Right, then who in 2027? Who could win by honestly confronting France's weaknesses and reminding France that – despite all – it gets many things right? There is Edouard Philippe, the former PM who hopes to reconcile the Macron centre with what remains of the ex-Gaullist Centre-right. He is a decent man but looks increasingly like a 1990s politician floundering in the 2020s. There is Gabriel Attal, the former PM who is struggling to transition from wonderkid to statesman. He has the impossible task of distancing himself from Macron while promising to rescue Macronism. There is Bruno Retailleau, the hard-line interior minister who wants to resurrect the Centre-right but has nothing to say on any subject but crime and immigration. Could there still be hope for a Relative Unknown, another Macron, from right, left or centre-field? It would take great luck to pull off that trick again but the TikTok Age demands instant celebrity and politics as a form of reality TV. Wanted: a moderate and well-meaning Messiah of moderate Left or Right or Centre who is ready to become, as soon as she or he is elected, the most hated person in France. Does such a person exist? Probably not.
Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
French are told they 'don't work enough' as minister launches crackdown on Le Sickie to stop country slipping into bankruptcy
Workers in France have been told to stop being in denial and accept that they 'do not work enough' as the government aims to clampdown on soaring levels of absenteeism. Prime Minister François Bayrou is cracking down on those who pull a sickie in an attempt to 'reconcile the French with work', and save the country from bankruptcy. The country has fewer people working than its neighbours and spends the most on benefits, 'yet the French are increasingly dissatisfied with their public services and we are the most pessimistic country in the world', the prime minister said last week when laying out plans for next year's budget. President Emmanuel Macron tasked Bayrou with crafting a budget that shaves costs to bring down France's staggering debt and deficit - while also adding billions in new defense spending to face what Macron says are resurgent threats from Russia and beyond. His proposed measures include scrapping two public holidays, putting pressure on doctors to stop handing out notes for non-existent symptoms and getting people off work to tell their employers the medical condition they are suffering from. The level of absence from work in France is one of Europe's highest and at least double that of Britain. Nearly six percent of employees in the private sector are off sick from work at any time, while the rate of absenteeism has soared by 40 percent over the last five years. Between 2014 and 2022, there was a 79 percent increase in public servants taking sick leave. Meanwhile, people staying off work for 'psycho-social' conditions have jumped since the pandemic. The cost of these absences is estimated at up to 80 billion euros, or £69 billion. But his plans have sparked outrage among opposition groups on the left and right sides of the political spectrum. In addition, unions have accused the government of trying to 'destroy the health of the French' as they crack down on sick leave. Parliament is set to vote on Bayrou's 2026 budget this autumn. With no parliamentary majority, Macron's centrist grouping must win support from adversaries on the left and right to pass the budget.
Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Times
France clamps down on sick leave as bankruptcy looms
With their love of a long holiday, a coveted 35-hour working week and the 'right to disconnect' from office-related communication, many countries may gaze with envy at French working life. But a central tenet to what many in France would call a hard-fought right, is now at risk as authorities aim to curb a record rate of absenteeism that is costing the country billions more than its neighbours. François Bayrou, the centrist at the head of the minority government since December, has declared war on malingering as part of his drive to 'reconcile the French with work' — and save the country from looming bankruptcy. François Bayrou is aiming to discourage unwarranted sick leave MOHAMMED BADRA/EPA The French absentee level is one of Europe's highest and about double that of Britain and the United States. The cost is estimated at up to €80 billion, more than the state education budget.
Local France
a day ago
- Politics
- Local France
Diets, TV and love: How the average Frenchman or Frenchwoman really lives
French is a good country when it comes to statistics - its population is regularly surveyed and polled, and the national statistics agency Insee does a good job of making data public. Which means that we can build a good picture of how the average Frenchman and Frenchwoman live their lives. With the obvious caveat that an average won't apply to the entire 67-million strong population, here's how the modern Frenchie lives, loves and laughs. Age and children The average (mean) age for Frenchmen in 2025 is 41.3, while the average Frenchwoman is 44.1. The population as a whole is getting older - back in 2014 the average man was 39.3, and the average woman was 42.1. Those average-age people aren't worrying about death any time soon - the average Frenchman has a life expectancy of 80, while women can expect to live to be 85.7. Advertisement They might be looking ahead to retirement, though - in 2021 the average retirement age in France was 63.1. The pension age is something of a political hot potato in France , it is currently gradually rising from 62 to 64 after Emmanuel Macron pushed through highly contentious reforms to the pension system. That age is when people most people can start to collect their pensions - lower pension ages exist for people in physically strenuous jobs, meanwhile some people enjoy work and choose to stay in the workforce past the legal pension age. Current prime minister François Bayrou is 74, while Senate leader Gérard Larcher is 75. Nevertheless, most people retire at or near the official pension age, with an average retirement age of 63.1 - giving an average retirement of 22.6 years for women and 16.9 years for men. At the other end of the life cycle, the average family size in France is now 1.6 children per couple, a fall from 2.0 in 2024. The average age of a French first-time mum is 29. While some people are choosing not to have children at all, smaller family sizes are the norm even for people who do have kids - a survey in 2024 found that the average 'ideal number of children' per family was 2.3, compared to 2.7 in 1998. Money The average French person is an employee, and not a well-paid one. Data from 2023 shows that 26.9 million French people work as salaried employees, while just 3.3 million are fully self-employed. Insee's 2023 data shows that the average full-time employee in the private sector earns €2,730 net per month, while the average public sector employee earns €2,600 net per month (although that falls to €2,340 if we take out relatively well-paid medics). Advertisement Of those 27 million employees, more than half - 17 million - are earning the minimum wage ( le smic ) of €1,426 net per month (€21,621.60 per year pre tax or €17,115.69 after tax). The most common job among men is being a driver - comprising bus drivers and hauliers but not couriers - while women are most likely to be teachers. France has a decent number of people out of the workforce - from a population of 67 million only 30.8 million are classed as 'economically active' - the rest are either children, pensioners (roughly 25 percent of the population, or 16.7 million people, are retired), job-seekers, students or not working for other reasons (eg stay-at-home parents or people with an illness or disability that leaves them unable to work). This large non-working population means that France can come out quite badly on international comparisons of work and productivity - although if you analyse the work done by the working population France come out higher than the European average, and even higher than the Germans . The average work week in France is 39.6 hours. Advertisement Education The average French person does not have a university degree - although only just. Across the entire population 45 percent of people have a degree while 55 percent of people don't. Higher education also contributes to late entry into the workforce - the average age for getting a first job in France is 19. A relatively generous grant system coupled with low tuition fees means that many students do not need to get part-time jobs while they are studying. Love life The average French person lives with a spouse or partner, although those living alone is a fast-growing group that is predicted to become the norm within the next few decades. At present France has a population of 67 million people living in 30.3 million households - a household includes couples, single parents living with children, house-shares or inter-generational family living. Advertisement Insee's most recent detailed breakdown of family living situations is from 2016 and it shows that half of the population of France is living with a partner - 25.5 percent of households are a couple without children, 25.3 percent are a couple with children. However 35.8 percent of households consist of a single person, while 9 percent are single-parent families and the remaining 4.4 percent are 'complex households' that don't fit in to the above patterns - that would include house-shares and homes where multiple generations are living together. The number of households is growing in France as more and more people choose to live alone - it is projected that there will be 32 million households in 2050, even though the population is not set to grow. But the average French person is not married - data from 2023 shows that just 42 percent of the population of France is married, with that number falling below the 50 percent bar in 2008 and continuing to decline - despite the fact that in 2024 24,000 weddings took place. The average age at marriage is also steadily rising, reaching 37.3 years for women and 39.8 years for men in 2022. Advertisement Of those who do choose to formalise their relationship, most (72 percent) opt for marriage with just eight percent choosing a civil partnership (Pacs), and most couples are opposite sex - in 2022 same-sex partnerships accounted for three percent of weddings and five percent of civil partnerships (Pacs). Your average French person is likely to have had sex at least once in the last year - but overall the population is getting less sexually active. In 2023, 77.2 percent of women aged 18 to 69 reported having sexual intercourse in the past year, a fall from 84 percent in 1992. In the same year 81.6 percent of men in the same age bracket said they had had sex - down from 92 percent in 1992. Crucially, women report being happier with the amount of sex that they are having. READ ALSO : Revealed - the real sex lives of the French✎ Lifestyle The average Frenchie is an urban creature - 79.2 percent of the population lives in towns. In total 10.7 million people live in Paris and its suburbs while 16 million people live in another large town such as Bordeaux, Marseille or Lyon (between 200,000 and 1.9 million inhabitants). Around 14 million people live in the country while the remaining 27 million live in smaller towns. The average household has 99 electrical appliances, six of which will be unused according to an in-depth survey done by an anti-waste charity in collaboration with the government's Ademe environment agency. The living room has the most appliances (24), followed by the bedroom with 22, the cellar, bathroom and other ancillary rooms (laundry room, storeroom etc) are next, with around 10 appliances followed by the attic (6) and the garden/terrace/balcony (3). The average French person has at least one holiday a year, although 40 percent of people surveyed said that they don't go away on holiday at least once, for financial reasons. When they turn on the TV, their choice will be quiz shows or reality TV - data on the most-watched programmes in 2024 (excluding special events like sports matches) showed that the daytime quiz show Les Douze Coups de Midi was the most-watched programme, followed by the reality TV shows Koh-Lanta and L'amour est dans le pré . Neither of them smoke - despite its smokey image, just 31.8 percent of French people actually smoke. Advertisement Food and drink You might imagine your average Frenchie feasting on French classics like coq au vin , but in fact for several years running the winner of the annual survey ' le plat préféres des français' (France's favourite dish), has been the North African staple of tagine and cous cous that is widely available at inexpensive restaurants in almost every French town. In 2025, the survey tried to ring the changes by asking respondents which dish best 'represents France to the world' - and the classic beef stew boeuf bourguignon came out top. A survey on the most-consumed dishes in France found that poulet rôti et frites (roast chicken and chips) came out on top, followed by cassoulet, pizza and then cous cous. Don't assume your Frenchman or Frenchwoman is drinking wine either - just one in 10 people in France drink alcohol every day and wine consumption dropped from 120 litres per year in 1980 to 40 litres per year in 2019. READ ALSO : ANALYSIS: Why the French are drinking less and less wine✎ They're highly likely to be eating bread though - some 10 billion baguettes are consumed every year in France - that's 320 every second. The average So there you have it - your average Frenchman is 41.3 years old and works as a driver - he'll work another 21.8 years and then retire, after which he'll live for another 16.9 years. He lives in a town with a female partner to whom he is not married and together they have 1.6 children. He will have had sex at least once within the last year (with his partner? Who can say, the data is not that detailed) and likes to eat cous cous . Your average Frenchwoman is 44.1 and is a teacher, a job she will stay in for another 19 years before enjoying 22.6 years of retirement. She lives with a male partner, she had her first child at the age of 29 and lives in a home with 99 electrical appliances. In her spare time she likes watching quiz shows and reality TV and she has at least one holiday per year. She eats bread every day. A note on the data Unless otherwise stated, all data comes from the French national statistics agency Insee. It includes mainland France and the French overseas territories, with the exception of Mayotte, and counts anyone legally resident in France, even if they are not French citizens.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
France: Multi-year Budget Plan Supports Fiscal Outlook but Great Uncertainty Remains
The French government affirmed its commitment to stabilise the public debt trajectory by 2029 through savings and supply-side reforms, following two years of budgetary slippage that resulted in a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2024, the highest in the euro area. Under Prime Minister François Bayrou's EUR 44bn of measures for the 2026 Budget (equivalent to around 1.5% of GDP), the government plans to keep public spending unchanged relative to 2025 levels, excluding military expenditure and interest payments. According to the plan, this will be achieved primarily through a nominal freeze on social benefits (including pensions) and income tax bands, alongside local government savings. If fully implemented – which is unlikely in the view of Scope Ratings (Scope) – the government's plan would reduce the budget deficit from an expected 5.4% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2029. Instead, Scope expects a much more constrained and gradual fiscal consolidation path with the budget deficit still at 5% of GDP in 2027 and 4% in 2030 (Figure 1). This is because the impact of the savings plan on the headline deficit will be partially offset by the steady increase in net interest payments, from less than 4% of government revenue in 2024 to more than 6% by 2030. So, while the primary deficit is expected to return to its pre-Covid level of less than 1% of GDP by 2030, the headline deficit will remain elevated around 4% of GDP. Figure 1. Large primary deficits, rising interest payments weigh on the fiscal outlook % of GDP Savings Challenged by Economic Slowdown, Parliamentary Fragmentation and Rising Defence Expenditure The prime minister's measures to support domestic production include the elimination of two bank holidays, the reduction of red tape for businesses and greater labour market flexibility through upcoming negotiations with social partners on the unemployment benefits system. However, the introduction of ambitious structural reforms to support GDP growth, estimated at around 1% annually, appears unlikely in the near term. Modest economic momentum will weigh on the social acceptability of economic and budgetary reforms. Scope projects real GDP growth of 0.8% on average in 2025-26, after 1.1% in 2024, amid external headwinds including the United States's trade policies. In addition, the lack of a parliamentary majority since the 2022 legislative elections, the fragmented political landscape and heightened political polarisation following the 2024 dissolution of the National Assembly raise further uncertainties about the government's ability to implement its saving plans for 2026. Parliamentary discussions are expected to be challenged by difficult budgetary trade-offs to compensate for higher defence expenditures, projected to reach EUR 64bn in 2027 or about 2% of GDP. Discussions around the 2023 pension reform following this year's negotiations with social partners could also complicate the parliamentary debate. The need to strike a political compromise on the proposed economic and budgetary reforms will likely lead the government to water down some of its measures to appease political opposition, at the risk of missing next year's deficit targets. Conversely, relying on Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2026 Budget without a parliamentary vote will raise the risk of renewed political instability, following the collapse of the former government in December 2024. A successful no-confidence vote against the prime minister and/or early elections would undermine near-term fiscal consolidation. Political Hurdles Compound Uncertainties Around the Government's Saving Plan Upcoming elections – municipal elections in March 2026 and presidential elections in April-May 2027 – raise further uncertainties about budgetary efforts over the medium term. Reducing the deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2029 would require a savings plan of more than EUR 100bn, according to the French Court of Auditors. This is unlikely, given the uncertainty surrounding the policy agenda after the 2027 presidential elections. Figure 2. Large budget deficits, uncertain consolidation plan weigh on France's debt trajectory % of GDP Balancing the government's savings plan and the uncertainties around its implementation over the coming years, Scope believes general government debt to GDP will increase from about 113% in 2024 to 122% in 2030 (Figure 2). This would be one of the largest public debt increases among highly indebted developed countries, including Belgium, the United Kingdom and the United States. For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Thomas Gillet is a Director in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings. Brian Marly, Senior Analyst in sovereign ratings at Scope, contributed to drafting this article. 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