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The Herald Scotland
3 days ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
We are the city of growth and opportunity - the future is bright
According to the individuals responsible for ensuring this growth is carefully managed and inclusive, Edinburgh's future is 'bright' as long as those most in need aren't left behind. Edinburgh, they say, must 'move forward in a way that's going to enhance our success rather than cause further problems'. It is no small task, and one which many rapidly-expanding cities around the world have struggled to overcome. In the first of an exclusive two-part interview for The Herald's series looking at the Future of Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh Council's leader Jane Meagher and chief executive Paul Lawrence discussed the challenges facing the city and the solutions being explored. 'We've got a growing city, we've got a successful city and we've also got a city that faces a huge number of challenges,' said Meagher, who stepped up from her previous role as the authority's housing convener just five months ago after former council leader Cammy Day resigned over allegations of inappropriate behaviour. 'If we are going to continue to grow as a city, for obvious reasons we need to make sure that we can provide enough places for people to live. It's as simple as that.' Read more from The Herald's Future of Edinburgh series: When it comes to the capital's continued economic success compared to most UK cities, the figures speak for themselves. A new and as yet unpublished Scottish Cities Outlook report by the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) shows Edinburgh accounts for around 18% of Scotland's economic activity, more than any other city, and recorded strong average GVA growth of 5% between 2017 and 2022 - significantly outperforming the Scottish average of 3.7%. It also shows workers in Edinburgh produce more value per hour than anywhere else in Scotland — £49 an hour, compared to the national average of £38.50. Furthermore 82.2% of Edinburgh's working-age population is economically active, above London (78.6%) and Glasgow (73.6%). The capital's 2.6% unemployment rate is the UK's lowest and its median hourly pay of £17.70 is the highest outside London. Highlighting huge innovation growth in artificial intelligence and life sciences, Lawrence likened Edinburgh to the Oxford-Cambridge corridor which, while attracting major investment, has resulted in pressure on infrastructure, particularly transport and housing. 'The challenge is to ensure that growth is inclusive not exclusive,' he said. 'If you look at innovation cities around the world, particularly in western economies, often the most innovation strong also have significant amounts of poverty and inequality as well. We need to ensure that innovation-driven growth, which all the stats show is unarguable, is accompanied by an inclusive approach to employment.' Edinburgh's BioQuarter health innovation hub, he said, has the 'largest concentration of stem cell scientists in the UK with growing companies in life sciences, a world-leading cluster of healthcare and life sciences academics'. But he noted it sits between some of the city's most deprived neighbourhoods. Edinburgh's population is growing three times faster than any other Scottish city (Image: Colin Mearns) 'The challenge for us is to make sure those jobs of the future at the BioQuarter provide meaningful routes to high-quality jobs for the people of Niddrie, Craigmillar and Moredun, as much as postdocs from San Francisco or Singapore,' he added. The Forth Green Freeport is another key driver of the city's growth. Meagher said the council is making it clear to any potential investors that 'local people should not be left behind'. She said: 'What we're doing is drawing together not only investors and potential employers, but also the colleges and universities so they can make sure things like training are happening which equip young people that, for example, will be needed at the Forth Green Freeport so investors go ahead with the development that their planning. 'Then we need to start thinking now about things like apprenticeships, about what kind of college courses are going to be put on so that, in the interests of the company, they've got on their doorstep the right kind of people to make their business a success.' Meanwhile, one of the largest urban extensions in the UK is planned in West Edinburgh, where planning permission was granted for 11,000 new homes in the last three months of last year. 'Here, you have two huge motors of economic development,' Lawrence said, 'one being the airport and the other being Heriot-Watt University, and you have areas of significant deprivation on the other side of the bypass. 'Edinburgh airport is the fastest growing airport in Scotland, Heriot Watt has amazing plans, a big part of the City Region Deal with the National Robotarium. So what does that mean if you live in Wester Hailes? And is there a meaningful route to a meaningful career, not just at entry level but right through the employment spectrum? 'So that allying of Edinburgh's growth with the people who historically have been excluded from it, whether it's in Leith, West Edinburgh; that's the challenge. And to make sure the city, while all that growth is happening, and obviously we see the public saying this, the city doesn't come to a standstill through the growth in car use and public transport not keeping up. 'Transport is a huge part of that. Employment and wider infrastructure to mean that growth is for the city's good, rather than things that for the city's continued division, polarisation if you can call it that, and that the infrastructure needed doesn't keep up. We see examples all around the country where there's been a lot of housing growth and members of the public saying to their elected representatives 'but what about the public services that are needed to support this?' 'It's the challenges of growth that Edinburgh has historically faced into, historically we've actually done pretty well, but those are big challenges for us to address.' But in a climate of increasingly underfunded local government and gaping holes in budgets for housing, transport and education, is the city really up the challenge? The short answer, Meagher said, is yes, 'but only in partnership'. More on The Future of Edinburgh: She said: 'If we're going to take forward these big issues we can only do it with the right people on board. I think there are lots of strands that need to be drawn together and some of them lie in the hands of the Scottish Government, and it's important to keep them in the equation because that's the only way we can make sure that not only do we need enough homes for people to live in, we also need the right types and tenures of homes. 'We need social rented homes and the way the figures stack up at the moment, one of the ways we can achieve that is through grant funding from the Scottish Government. There are other ways we can work out what kinds of financial mechanisms that we can use in order to attract increasing investment and not to rely entirely on government funding. 'We're not saying we need to go to the Scottish Government with a begging bowl, but we are saying we're looking at all different kinds of financial mechanisms.' Lawrence said there is 'no question' significant public funding is required for the housing and transport infrastructure needed to support Edinburgh's projected growth. Some of the figures on this, he added, are 'pretty stark'. The council's plan to deliver 11,000 new affordable homes in the next five years faces a gap of £665 million, while it's estimated a north-south tram extension from Granton to the Royal Infirmary will cost £2 billion. 'A new tram line will need direct investment from the government, there is no question about that. You will not be able to build that at scale otherwise,' he added. 'There are parts of the UK where they've used something called land value uplift where you can say 'this land is currently worth X because it's not being used', transport infrastructure goes in, as a result the value of the land increases and you can capture some of that. That's more difficult to do in a dense, already urban built city like Edinburgh. So while there are mechanisms we can look at, there is no question that for us to take the tram forward will need some very tough decisions from the Scottish Government to prioritise mobility in a major city like Edinburgh. 'What's happened over the past 10 to 15 years with large scale house building outside the city is a lot of people are living outside the city, because frankly house prices are cheaper, but are coming into the city for employment. So we have to plan that together and something like public transport expansion, whether that's tram or bus - and bus is extremely important to that - that we do that as a region. 'We are the fastest-growing region in Scotland and that means that infrastructure investment in public transport needs to keep pace.' He said the Growth Accelerator Model (GAM) used to deliver the St James Quarter 'has got a lot more potential' in Edinburgh. 'This was effectively a way of recycling tax uplift which wouldn't have happened if the development hadn't happened, and then partially reinvested it into the development to support viability and the quality of the public realm. 'That was a partnership between the council, Scottish Government and the private sector investor. It took us a long time to design and deliver that but it was done very successfully, we see the public enjoying Edinburgh St James. We think there's more like that can be done where it's not just us with a hand out, it's also creating mechanisms that we think will work.' Jane Meagher has been City of Edinburgh Council's leader since December 2024 (Image: Gordon Terris) Meagher added: 'If you think about the benefits to the Scottish economy as a whole, it's an undeniable fact that the central belt is what, at least in part, drives the whole of the Scottish economy. 'If we're bringing in all these jobs then clearly that's going to increase revenue in terms of taxation, etcetera. We think this is not just for Edinburgh's benefit but for the benefit of the whole country. 'The future is bright provided we don't leave behind the people and parts of the city who suffer most from things like poverty. 'We've got major challenges to address in order to move forward in a way that's going to enhance our success rather than cause further problems.'
The National
20-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
Without immigration, I might well not be here
I was lying in theatre after an emergency caesarean section. There was hustle and bustle all around me from the medical team. I was haemorrhaging badly. Things had taken a serious turn, and the doctors were preparing for the possibility of removing my womb to save my life. An obstetrician was called. She rushed in, calm, focused and decisive. With extraordinary skill, she saved my womb. She saved my life. I went on to have two more children. She was a migrant. In the moment, I didn't stop to ask where she was born or how long she'd been in the country, I was too busy being grateful that she was there. I wasn't thinking about borders or immigration status, I was thinking, 'Thank God for her'. READ MORE: John Swinney condemns 'unacceptable' football fan violence across Scotland That memory returns every time I hear anti-immigrant rhetoric, and it came roaring back last week when I listened to the Prime Minister deliver his speech on immigration. It was cold. Calculated. And laced with language that felt designed to sow fear. Keir Starmer spoke of 'chaos', 'experiments,' and 'shutting down the lab'. And I couldn't help but think: 'Does he even know who he's talking about?' Migrants aren't just numbers in a spreadsheet or slogans on a lectern. They're the people who save lives. Who support our teachers. Who process our food. Who care for our loved ones. And let's be honest, these new immigration policies aren't about economics, fairness, or control. It's pure populism. If the UK Government really cared about economic growth, it wouldn't be pulling up the drawbridge on working-age migrants. In Scotland, we face a falling birth rate, an ageing population, and serious labour shortages in key sectors. Our fish processors, care homes, farms, and hospitals are crying out for workers. When employers can't recruit, it's because there simply aren't enough people. So they turn to migrant labour. This is not because people are lazy or on benefits. Throughout my constituency of Banffshire and Buchan Coast, I've spoken to seafood factory owners who have said plainly that without migrant workers, they'll have to shut their doors. These are businesses that feed the nation, export to the world and support entire communities. They offer hard, honest work. Many migrants have been here for years, raising families, paying taxes, and keeping our coastal economy afloat. Now, under the UK Government's new rules, they are being told they're no longer welcome And it's not just our coast that's under pressure. Across Scotland, we're facing a demographic challenge. According to the National Records of Scotland, our population is projected to start falling from 2040 unless we have continued inward migration. The number of people aged 75 and over is rising rapidly, while our working-age population is shrinking. The Fraser of Allander Institute warned that without immigration, Scotland's workforce could decline by nearly 20% in the coming decades. That would be catastrophic for our economy and our services. We need people and we need policies that reflect that. Let me also clear up a misunderstanding I keep seeing on social media. People talk about migrants 'coming over on boats', as if they're all the same – as if a factory worker in Peterhead, a student in Aberdeen, and someone desperately fleeing war or persecution are part of one big group. They're not. When we talk about immigration to support the economy, like filling gaps in the care sector or in fish processing, we're talking about legal routes via visas, work permits, and sponsorship. That's entirely different from people coming here seeking asylum – which is a legal right under international law. And yes, some of those people arrive by small boat, not because they're 'jumping the queue', but because there's no safe, official route open to them. Once here, they're not allowed to work. They're often housed in hotels, living on a few pounds a day and unable to contribute even though many desperately want to. These are two completely different systems, but bad actors deliberately blur the lines to stoke fear. It's the same scapegoating tactic we've seen throughout history, and it always ends up hurting the wrong people. When I see them being lumped together and blamed for everything from housing shortages to NHS waiting times, I feel furious, as a politician and as a human being. Because this scapegoating doesn't just distract from the real causes of our problems, it also dehumanises the people helping to solve them. Let's take one example, the social care sector. Scotland has one of the highest vacancy rates for care jobs in the UK. We are literally unable to meet demand without workers from abroad. Yet now, the visa rules for these roles are being tightened. How is that sustainable? Clinging to a Brexit-shaped fantasy that has already cost Scotland dearly will be devastating. Our fishing industry was promised the world and left with red tape and worker shortages. Now it's being dealt another blow by a government that sees value only in votes, not people. This isn't about the UK being 'full'. It's about being failed – failed by a London-focused Westminster Government making policy for polling numbers. Scotland deserves better. And one day soon, with independence, we'll build an immigration system that reflects who we are and what we need. To those who have chosen Scotland as their home, we thank you. You are not the problem. You are part of the solution. Let's reject this anti-immigration populist nonsense and be reasonable and pragmatic. Keir Starmer, not in our name.
Scotsman
30-04-2025
- Business
- Scotsman
Let's develop strategies to maximise cities' potential
How more private-public collaboration can boost property – and the Scottish economy Sign up to our daily newsletter – Regular news stories and round-ups from around Scotland direct to your inbox Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Scotland's commercial property sector has undergone some significant changes in the last five years. The Covid-19 pandemic, changing working patterns, and new legislation – not to mention geopolitical uncertainty – are just a handful of the issues that have had their influence in different ways. One of the most enduring consequences of those events for property has undoubtedly been the effect on project viability. Stubbornly high inflation has pushed the cost of development up significantly. While that has stymied new supply, helping to push rents up in Edinburgh and Glasgow, that benefit has been more than offset by softening yields and cost increases in both construction and funding costs. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad At the same time, we have seen a flight to quality – particularly in the office sector. Occupiers are increasingly looking for space that has the ESG credentials to match their strategies, and access to the best amenities. All of this requires significant investment and, combined with the macro backdrop, the upshot is that many new-build schemes, and refurbishment projects, have been rendered unfeasible. Manchester is a standout example of how a city can deliver a strategy for transformation (Picture: It is unsurprising, then, that we have seen few new developments coming out of the ground. With that comes the risk of stagnation – the property sector is one of Scotland's key economic drivers, with a huge multiplier effect. Analysis from the Fraser of Allander Institute from 2018 found that for every £100 million of 'new commercial work' – its definition of the industry's impact – another £73m is created in the wider economy. Our 177 Bothwell Street in Glasgow was a case in point. The independent economic impact assessment carried out to capture its contribution to the city and broader Scottish economy found that it would deliver £2.8 billion in gross value added (GVA) over 25 years, from the jobs created during construction through to the local firms supported by the major corporate occupiers basing themselves at the building. What's more, an office is essentially a home for a business. If they do not have the right accommodation to support how they operate and function, that firm will not perform to its full potential and productivity – already an ongoing challenge for the UK, as a whole – will dip. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Amid the challenges of recent years, there have still been some notable success stories in UK cities. Manchester is a standout example, and anyone visiting can see how much new development there has been and the positive impact this has had, with the city predicted to outpace the national growth rate. Stephen Lewis, MD of HFD Property (Picture: Jeff Holmes) Closer to home, Dundee is widely seen as a great example of how a city can deliver a strategy for transformation. Property is at the heart of those plans, with the Eden Project perhaps the highest-profile example, alongside a new e-sports arena and Life Sciences Innovation District. What these two cities have in common is the engagement between public and private sector. For instance, Manchester City Council included three representatives from the private sector on the seven-person interview panel for its new development director. Dundee, has engaged extensively with the property industry, listened to what's required in support of the city's plans, and taken action to make that happen. Ultimately, if we're not developing then we're not growing. And if we're not growing, we're going backwards. The progress we've seen in Manchester and Dundee is replicable elsewhere – all we need to do is have the will, drive, and collaborative approach to deliver it.
STV News
24-04-2025
- Business
- STV News
National insurance rise and trade uncertainty ‘difficult in-tray' for businesses
An increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and uncertainty around trade and tariffs made for a 'difficult in-tray' for Scottish businesses at the start of the financial year, a study has found. The latest edition of the quarterly Scottish Business Monitor, published by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, was based on a survey of 250 Scottish businesses in March. It found that almost eight out of 10 businesses reported higher payroll costs as a result of a hike in employer NICs from 13.8% to 15%, which came into effect from Sunday April 6. The survey found many businesses were adapting to the rise through a 'combination' of strategies, with 49% saying they were passing the cost on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Some 47% said they had reduced hiring or scaled back plans to increase employee headcount, while 12% said they had shifted towards 'automation and technology' to offset the rise. The study also found that about 90% of the firms surveyed anticipate higher business costs over the next six months, while 80% said they expect Scottish economic growth to remain 'very weak to weak'. The study team warned that increased prices could push inflation above the Bank of England's target of 2%, which they noted had also been flagged as a concern by the Bank's policymakers. The study also found that business sentiment has also been affected by growing uncertainty around trade and tariffs, with firms indicating that economic and policy uncertainty was more important than credit availability or staff availability. Sanjam Suri, knowledge exchange fellow at the University of Strathclyde, said: 'These results bear out what we expected in the previous edition of our Scottish Business Monitor. 'Increases in employer NICs – both through the higher rate and the reduced threshold – have already been affecting businesses as they prepared for the implementation of the changes in April 2025. 'With four out of five businesses facing higher payroll costs and almost half cutting back on hiring and increasing prices, the effects of higher costs have been making their way through companies' plans for the coming year. 'Add in the uncertainty around trade, and it makes for a difficult in-tray to manage. 'Economic policy and political uncertainty are uppermost in the minds of Scottish businesses, even more so than borrowing costs or staff availability. 'Next quarter, we will look to gauge how businesses have been adapting to that uncertainty, as well as changing labour market regulations.' Get all the latest news from around the country Follow STV News Scan the QR code on your mobile device for all the latest news from around the country
The Independent
27-03-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Scottish Government will ‘look at every lever' to avoid benefit cuts
The Scottish Government will have to 'look at every lever' to avoid cutting benefits after the Chancellor's announcement, Holyrood's Finance Secretary has said. Rachel Reeves outlined cuts of almost £5 billion in her spring statement on Wednesday, drawing criticism from charities and opposition parties. The changes will affect around three million families in the UK on incapacity benefits, while the personal independence payment will be lower for 800,000 claimants. As a result of the changes, the Scottish Government's budget is likely to be £900 million lower by the end of the decade – according to the Fraser of Allander Institute. Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison said on Thursday her Government will do what it can to avoid hitting benefits. 'We have invested in social security, things like the Scottish child payment for example, which is keeping thousands of children out of poverty,' she told BBC Radio Scotland. 'We're in the business of keeping people out of poverty, not pushing children particularly into poverty. 'So we have made decisions over the years to prioritise the spend on our most vulnerable. 'In terms of going forward, the announcements yesterday are going to have a major impact on our budgets in the coming years and what we will be doing is to look at every lever we can use to avoid having to replicate the decision the UK Labour Government have made.' She said Scottish ministers are working on plans to reduce the cost of Government and the size of the public sector. 'We believe we will be able to save considerable amounts of money through those programmes, so we will be doing what we can in order to have choices in future years,' she said. The Scottish Government will have to 'do things differently', the Finance Secretary said, adding: 'We will do everything we can to enable us and the government in the future to have choices, because we don't want to make the choices the Chancellor made yesterday. 'She had other choices she could have made yet she has decided to make these choices on the back of the most vulnerable.' Speaking on the same programme, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said fiscal responsibility has a 'huge cost'. He added: 'When government loses control of the public finances that harms everyone in the country, particularly the most vulnerable, particularly those on the lowest income with the fewest resources. 'So fiscal irresponsibility has a huge cost, that is why for us making sure we have fiscal responsibility, making sure the public finances are stable, is so crucial to what we are doing in Government. 'We know that the best route out of poverty is to get into work. 'A key part of the package we have announced is an extra £1 billion of support for people to get back into employment, to help with their skills and health needs. 'Getting people back into work is a central driver of the package for welfare reform we set out, but it is also important to make sure the safety net is there for people who really need it, for people who can never work, for people who need support.' He stressed the welfare system has to be 'fiscally sustainable'. He added: 'If you look at the cost of incapacity and disability benefits, it has gone up by £20 billion since the pandemic, that is an increase of two-thirds. 'I don't think anyone would say that the system is sustainable as it is. That is why we're setting out our plans to reform it.'
