Latest news with #Frenchgovernment
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
France: Multi-year Budget Plan Supports Fiscal Outlook but Great Uncertainty Remains
The French government affirmed its commitment to stabilise the public debt trajectory by 2029 through savings and supply-side reforms, following two years of budgetary slippage that resulted in a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2024, the highest in the euro area. Under Prime Minister François Bayrou's EUR 44bn of measures for the 2026 Budget (equivalent to around 1.5% of GDP), the government plans to keep public spending unchanged relative to 2025 levels, excluding military expenditure and interest payments. According to the plan, this will be achieved primarily through a nominal freeze on social benefits (including pensions) and income tax bands, alongside local government savings. If fully implemented – which is unlikely in the view of Scope Ratings (Scope) – the government's plan would reduce the budget deficit from an expected 5.4% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2029. Instead, Scope expects a much more constrained and gradual fiscal consolidation path with the budget deficit still at 5% of GDP in 2027 and 4% in 2030 (Figure 1). This is because the impact of the savings plan on the headline deficit will be partially offset by the steady increase in net interest payments, from less than 4% of government revenue in 2024 to more than 6% by 2030. So, while the primary deficit is expected to return to its pre-Covid level of less than 1% of GDP by 2030, the headline deficit will remain elevated around 4% of GDP. Figure 1. Large primary deficits, rising interest payments weigh on the fiscal outlook % of GDP Savings Challenged by Economic Slowdown, Parliamentary Fragmentation and Rising Defence Expenditure The prime minister's measures to support domestic production include the elimination of two bank holidays, the reduction of red tape for businesses and greater labour market flexibility through upcoming negotiations with social partners on the unemployment benefits system. However, the introduction of ambitious structural reforms to support GDP growth, estimated at around 1% annually, appears unlikely in the near term. Modest economic momentum will weigh on the social acceptability of economic and budgetary reforms. Scope projects real GDP growth of 0.8% on average in 2025-26, after 1.1% in 2024, amid external headwinds including the United States's trade policies. In addition, the lack of a parliamentary majority since the 2022 legislative elections, the fragmented political landscape and heightened political polarisation following the 2024 dissolution of the National Assembly raise further uncertainties about the government's ability to implement its saving plans for 2026. Parliamentary discussions are expected to be challenged by difficult budgetary trade-offs to compensate for higher defence expenditures, projected to reach EUR 64bn in 2027 or about 2% of GDP. Discussions around the 2023 pension reform following this year's negotiations with social partners could also complicate the parliamentary debate. The need to strike a political compromise on the proposed economic and budgetary reforms will likely lead the government to water down some of its measures to appease political opposition, at the risk of missing next year's deficit targets. Conversely, relying on Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2026 Budget without a parliamentary vote will raise the risk of renewed political instability, following the collapse of the former government in December 2024. A successful no-confidence vote against the prime minister and/or early elections would undermine near-term fiscal consolidation. Political Hurdles Compound Uncertainties Around the Government's Saving Plan Upcoming elections – municipal elections in March 2026 and presidential elections in April-May 2027 – raise further uncertainties about budgetary efforts over the medium term. Reducing the deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2029 would require a savings plan of more than EUR 100bn, according to the French Court of Auditors. This is unlikely, given the uncertainty surrounding the policy agenda after the 2027 presidential elections. Figure 2. Large budget deficits, uncertain consolidation plan weigh on France's debt trajectory % of GDP Balancing the government's savings plan and the uncertainties around its implementation over the coming years, Scope believes general government debt to GDP will increase from about 113% in 2024 to 122% in 2030 (Figure 2). This would be one of the largest public debt increases among highly indebted developed countries, including Belgium, the United Kingdom and the United States. For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Thomas Gillet is a Director in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings. Brian Marly, Senior Analyst in sovereign ratings at Scope, contributed to drafting this article. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Navigating China's Economic Challenges: A Q&A with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen Buy Like Big Money: Carpenter Technology Soars Buy Like Big Money: Bentley Systems Lifting Off SoFi Shares See Huge Bullish Signal, Could Rise More Identify Superstar Stocks Like DoorDash Before the Crowd Identify Superstar Stocks Like American Superconductor Early
The Diplomat
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Diplomat
France, Mongolia Expand Civil Security and Emergency Response Cooperation
Beyond political and cultural relations, Ulaanbaatar and Paris have built up robust cooperation in civil security and disaster relief. Mongolian Deputy Prime Minister Amarsaikhan Sainbuyan, French Ambassador to Mongolia Corinne Pereira Da Silva, and Major General Ariunbuyan Gombojav, Chief of the National Emergency Management Agency, attend a specialized training in heliborne emergency medicine, in collaboration with the Foundation of the French Academy of Medicine. June 2025. This year marks the 60th anniversary of Mongolia and France's establishment of diplomatic ties. In the last six decades, the expansion of this bilateral partnership has engulfed tangible and assessable cooperation mechanisms. Beyond political and cultural relations, Ulaanbaatar and Paris have build a robust cooperation mechanism in civil security and disaster relief management. In June, the French Academy of Medical Sciences Foundation, France's General Directorate for Civil Security and Crisis Management, and Mongolia's National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) co-organized a two-day training as part of the France-Mongolia 60th anniversary. The joint training focused on rapid response to disaster relief included airlifting with NEMA's Air Rescue Unit 111 – Mongolia's first joint air ambulance training. The training encompassed over 100 medical and emergency response professionals from Mongolia. While such civil security cooperation projects began in 2010, the French government began to initiative emergency response trainings in Mongolia during the 1990s, while also providing assistance to hospitals in rural areas. In 2010, the Disaster Management Agency of France and Mongolia's NEMA signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) which financed the partnership through a soft loan and private-public partnership, laying the foundation for joint efforts in disaster risk management. The agreement also included a capacity building element, under which France would provide 12 helicopters, 12 mechanics, and French professionals to provide training for emergency response medical teams. In 2019, the governments of Mongolia and France signed a 30-year soft loans for 57.9 million euros, which secured the delivery of three helicopters, 42 specialized fire trucks, and the establishment of an aerial search and rescue unit in Mongolia. The emergency response cooperation between Mongolia and France continued without interruption despite the COVID-19 pandemic and a change in personnel. The 2019 deal was signed during the tenure of Philippe Merlin as France's ambassador to Mongolia. Sebastien Surun, Merlin's successor, received the emergency response vehicles and helicopters in 2022. That same year, the first evacuation rescue mission was completed with one of the new helicopters. Identifying the successful cooperation and the implementation of the agreement, Ambassador of Mongolia to France Nyamkhuu Ulambayar told The Diplomat, 'Between 2020 and 2023, this aerial search and rescue unit responded to 157 emergency calls and rescued over 200 individuals. A second phase launched in 2024 focuses on advanced training and additional equipment to further build operational independence.' 'Our cooperation with Mongolia's National Emergency Management Agency is ground-breaking,' Surun, who is now France's deputy ambassador in Ukraine, highlighted in an interview with Bolor Lkhaajav. In the same interview, he announced that 'this year, we will have a civil security officer based in Ulaanbaatar. We want to take our cooperation in emergency management to the next level.' Mongolia's NEMA has been working toward further strengthening and expanding cooperation mechanisms with France's General Directorate for Civil Security and Crisis Management. In 2023, during President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa's state visit to France, a financial agreement was signed to continue financing France-Mongolia emergency response programs, and the two sides agreed that France would provide additional training for the Air Search and Rescue Unit. Following the agreement, in 2024, the head of NEMA, director of Fire Fighting Department, and directors of the Air Search and Rescue Unit all visited France and signed technical agreements that aimed to contract French companies to deliver the firefighting vehicles and technical equipment that will ensure rescue operations are completed properly. One of the highlights of this meeting was a deal on constructing a new helicopter base. According to NEMA, the emergency and disaster relief sector has received robust support from a wide range of global partners, including Russia, China, South Korea, Japan, the United States, France, Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. On a multilateral level, Mongolia seeks a deeper cooperation with international organizations such as the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. Mongolia's global partnerships have helped expand these relationships, and NEMA units have participated in global disaster relief efforts. A Mongolian search and rescue K-9 unit worked in Turkiye in 2023 in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake that killed around 55,000 people. The advancement of Mongolia's emergency response mechanism also correlates to the increase in international tourism to Mongolia. As more tourists immerse themselves in nomadic activities in remote locations, having a robust emergency response unit is critically important for Mongolia's civil security sector. A spokesperson for Mongolia's NEMA told The Diplomat that the Air Search and Rescue Unit has saved 'the lives of 210 people, including 157 adults and 53 children,' since cooperation with France began. Looking ahead, cooperation between Mongolia and France will likely to expand – not only in mining, education, and culture, but also capacity building in civil security, particularly in emergency response.
France 24
15-07-2025
- Business
- France 24
Will Trump's trade war finally start affecting US inflation?
The US Bureau of Labor of Statistics will be releasing its June inflation data this Tuesday, with economists forecasting a slight uptick in consumer prices because of the impact of tariffs. FRANCE 24 spoke to Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, about the impact of import duties on US inflation. Also in this edition: the French government considers a spending freeze in a bid to find €40 billion in savings and cut the deficit.
Times
12-07-2025
- Politics
- Times
The biggest problem with Macron's new smoking ban: the French
With modest fanfare, one of the world's most tobacco-addicted nations introduced one of the world's boldest smoking bans this month. In France it is now illegal to smoke on beaches, in parks, at bus stops, near schools and at the entrances to libraries and sports centres. President Macron's stated goal is to produce a tobacco-free generation by 2032 and he is doing everything he can to stamp out public smoking in any place where children might be present. There is, however, one factor that his government appears to have overlooked: the French. This is a country with a historic disregard for authority where a third of working-age adults still smoke, just under a quarter of them every day. Casual smoking is creeping up and more French women smoke now than 50 years ago. In western Europe, cigarettes have become an increasingly rare sight, but between the Channel and the Mediterranean smoking remains a fact of life. At least five French mayors went on record within days of the ban to say it was unenforceable. An afternoon at a packed beach in the south of France last week showed why. Smokers dotted the Plage des Catalans in Marseille, while greater numbers simply avoided the ban by smoking on its the fringes: from rocks, café terraces opposite the beach and a stretch of concrete beside the loos. Everyone was aware of the new rule, the first of its kind in Europe. No one, including the police, seemed to know exactly what it meant. A loudspeaker boomed out a clear instruction, in French and then English: 'For those of you who want to smoke, you have to go on the concrete side of the beach.' Confusion reigned. When retired brasserie owner Léa Abzar, 67, sat smoking on the concrete with her pet chihuahua, police arrived to tell her she had to go somewhere else. 'They told me that even up there you're not allowed,' she said, pointing to the promenade and street above the beach. 'Which means these days we're allowed to smoke at home, and that's it.' (The gendarmes seemed to be misinformed about this: there is nothing in the new law that bans smoking on pavements or highways.) 'It won't decrease anything at all,' she added, of the new restrictions on smoking. 'I can guarantee you. Even diseases don't make it decrease. I find it a shame that these people who lead us waste time making these kinds of laws when there are much more important things to deal with.' Naïm Bessah, a lifeguard, told me that in 20 minutes on patrol he had stopped 'three or four' people smoking on the actual beach. Smoking had already been banned on Marseille's beaches anyway, he said, though people 'didn't respect it'. He added: 'Since the new ban, if we see it, we stop people. But it's not our job.' His heart really didn't seem to be in it. Two minutes later I spotted him near the men's loos with his yellow lifeguard's T-shirt off, cigarette in hand. Under the new law fines for infractions rise from €135 (£117) to €750 for repeat offenders, but I saw no fines at all being imposed by police on the beach. The closest shave was when a policeman dashed off towards a woman on the sand fiddling with a suspicious-looking object: a suspected cannabis joint. The woman claimed it was a cigarette and that she wasn't going to smoke it there. The police moved on. Aurore Faust, 46, a carer from Marseille, stood with a cigarette just off the sand near steps to the road. She has been smoking for 20 years, is now on four or five a day and has no plans to quit. 'We will not stop, never,' she said — although she could see the merits of the beach ban because it will protect children. Campaigners say the restrictions need to go further. François Torpart, from the National Committee Against Smoking, said it had pushed for café terraces to be included, a move that surveys show a majority of French people would actually support. Torpart said in time the current 'first step' would make a difference. He cited the ban on smoking in restaurants and public transport in 2007, a year when Britain did the same. 'There were some of the same reservations, the same hesitations, such as how to enforce the regulations, [people saying] we cannot have the police intervene everywhere, etc,' he said. 'But the fact is that it worked well.' In France it proved less effective than in other countries, though. Britain is currently bringing in some of the strictest anti-smoking rules in the world, in the form of Sir Keir Starmer's Tobacco and Vapes Bill now going through the Lords. It will ban children born since January 1, 2009, from ever buying cigarettes. It also includes a ban on smoking outside schools, hospitals and playgrounds, similar to the French law, although beaches are not included. As it stands, however, France has all the same restrictions as Britain, but almost three times the number of smokers. France is now joining the ranks of the few countries to have nationwide bans on smoking in certain outdoor public spaces. Mexico is one (beaches and parks), Singapore another (parks, bus stops, playgrounds and other locations). Finland bans smoking in areas primarily used by minors, such as daycare facilities and schools. Many Australian states and Canadian provinces have bans at beaches (Bondi Beach is smoke-free). In Spain and Italy, western Europe's next most smoker-full countries, lots of local councils have banned smoking on beaches. Some French ones already had, too. Since the new ban came into force, it has been criticised by several local elected mayors, who in France have powers over policing. Dominique Cap, mayor of Plougastel-Daoulas, a peninsula community in Brittany, called the ban an 'absurd and very Parisian' decision. In Marseille too, it looked that way, at least for now. 'If people want to smoke, they smoke,' said Remi Cozzolino from behind the counter of his tobacconist-newsagent facing the sea in front of Plage des Catalans. Had the ban affected business? 'Not at all.'
Mint
10-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Bharti Space to invest additional ₹1,200 crore in Eutelsat
Bharti Space Ltd will invest an additional €120 million (about ₹ 1,204 crore) in French satellite operator Eutelsat Communications S.A. through a rights issue as part of the latter's €1.5 billion (over ₹ 15,000 crore) capital raising plan, the Starlink rival said in a statement on Thursday. This investment by Bharti Enterprises' space venture is in addition to ₹ 300 crore or €30 million, which it had committed earlier through a reserve capital increase process. Bharti Space holds a 24.09% stake in Eutelsat Group. On 19 June, Eutelsat announced that it is raising capital of €1.35 billion (around ₹ 11,250 crore)through a mix of a reserve capital increase worth €716 million ( ₹ 6,865 crore) and a rights issue of €634 million ( ₹ 6,330 crore). In the Thursday update, it increased the capital raising round size to €1.5 billion (over ₹ 15,000 crore) after the UK government committed to joining the fundraising round. The round now includes €828 million (around ₹ 8,304 crore) through reserve capital increase and a rights issue of €672 million (around ₹ 6,739 crore). Eutelsat expects the fundraising to be completed by the end of this year. To be sure, the UK government holds a 10.9% stake in Eutelsat currently. It has committed to invest a total of €163.3 million (around ₹ 1,638 crore). The satellite operator aims to use the fresh funds to pare debt and expand investments in satellite constellations, as it pushes to cement its role in the global space communications market, it said in the 19 June statement. 'Today, governments require secure and reliable sovereign connectivity solutions, and Eutelsat is uniquely positioned to meet this need. Eutelsat's OneWeb was the first complete low-earth orbit constellation, and the company is the first and only provider able to provide customers with access to both low-earth orbit and geostationary orbit services,' said Sunil Bharti Mittal, co-chairman of Eutelsat Group, in the Thursday statement. 'This new capital injection will allow Eutelsat to go further and faster in developing innovative new technologies and services under the leadership of its new chief executive, Jean-François Fallacher,' Mittal added. Bharti Space, along with other key investors—the French government, UK government, shipping major CMA CGM, and sovereign investor Fonds Stratégique de Participations (FSP)—will participate in both parts of the fundraising. Eutelsat said the commitments of the reserved capital increase by investors remain subject to shareholders' approvals at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting, which will be held around the end of the September quarter. The same is also subject to other statutory approvals. With the investment commitment of a total of ₹ 1,500 crore, Bharti's shareholding in Eutelsat Group would be around 17.8%. The French government will become the largest shareholder with a 29.65% stake as it is investing €750 million (around ₹ 7,518 crore). In the merged entity of Eutelsat OneWeb, Bharti owns a 21% stake. Bharti's shareholding in the company will reduce as, post the fundraising via reserve capital increase and rights issue, Eutelsat's overall share capital will increase. This would lead to potential dilution. Eutelsat's reserved capital increase is being carried out at €4 per share, representing a 32% premium over the company's 30-day average share price on the Euronext Paris stock exchange as of 18 June's close. 'In the current environment, it is crucial that our countries continue to collaborate and support each other, including in space, which has become a key sovereign strategic asset. We remain committed to the UK, which we consider as one of our home markets, and to supporting the development of OneWeb to address the needs of all our sovereign and commercial stakeholders,' said Jean-François Fallacher, CEO of Eutelsat. The capital raise comes at a time of heightened activity in the satellite internet space, especially in India. OneWeb, now part of the Eutelsat Group, has received a licence from the Indian government to launch satellite internet services. However, the roll-out remains on hold as the department of telecommunications is yet to allocate spectrum for such services.
