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Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Extreme weather's true damage cost is often a mystery – that's a problem for understanding storm risk, but it can be fixed
On Jan. 5, 2025, at about 2:35 in the afternoon, the first severe hailstorm of the season dropped quarter-size hail in Chatham, Mississippi. According to the federal storm events database, there were no injuries, but it caused $10,000 in property damage. How do we know the storm caused $10,000 in damage? We don't. That estimate is probably a best guess from someone whose primary job is weather forecasting. Yet these guesses, and thousands like them, form the foundation for publicly available tallies of the costs of severe weather. If the damage estimates from hailstorms are consistently lower in one county than the next, potential property buyers might think it's because there's less risk of hailstorms. Instead, it might just be because different people are making the estimates. We are atmospheric scientists at Texas A&M University who lead the Office of the Texas State Climatologist. Through our involvement in state-level planning for weather-related disasters, we have seen county-scale patterns of storm damage over the past 20 years that just didn't make sense. So, we decided to dig deeper. We looked at storm event reports for a mix of seven urban and rural counties in southeast Texas, with populations ranging from 50,000 to 5 million. We included all reported types of extreme weather. We also talked with people from the two National Weather Service offices that cover the area. Typically, two specific types of extreme weather receive special attention. After a tornado, the National Weather Service conducts an on-site damage survey, examining its track and destruction. That survey forms the basis for the official estimate of a tornado's strength on the enhanced Fujita scale. Weather Service staff are able to make decent damage cost estimates from knowledge of home values in the area. They also investigate flash flood damage in detail, and loss information is available from the National Flood Insurance Program, the main source of flood insurance for U.S. homes. Most other losses from extreme weather are privately insured, if they're insured at all. Insured loss information is collected by reinsurance companies – the companies that insure the insurance companies – and gets tabulated for major events. Insurance companies use their own detailed information to try to make better decisions on rates than their competitors do, so event-based loss data by county from insurance companies isn't readily available. There's one big window into how disaster damage has changed over the years in the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, compiled information for major disasters, including insured losses by state. Bulk data won't tell communities or counties about their specific risk, but it enabled NOAA to calculate overall damage estimates, which it released as its billion-dollar disasters list. From that program, we know that the number and cost of billion-dollar disasters in the United States has increased dramatically in recent years. News articles and even scientific papers often point to climate change as the primary culprit, but a much larger driver has been the increasing number and value of buildings and other types of infrastructure, particularly along hurricane-prone coasts. Critics in the past year called for more transparency and vetting of the procedures used to estimate billion-dollar disasters. But that's not going to happen, because NOAA in May 2025 stopped making billion-dollar disaster estimates and retired its user interface. Previous estimates can still be retrieved from NOAA's online data archive, but by shutting down that program, the window into current and future disaster losses and insurance claims is now closed. Emergency managers at the county level also make local damage estimates, but the resources they have available vary widely. They may estimate damages only when the total might be large enough to trigger a disaster declaration that makes relief funds available from the federal government. Without insurance data or county estimates, the local offices of the National Weather Service are on their own to estimate losses. There is no standard operating procedure that every office must follow. One office might choose to simply not provide damage estimates for any hailstorms because the staff doesn't see how it could come up with accurate values. Others may make estimates, but with varying methods. The result is a patchwork of damage estimates. Accurate values are more likely for rare events that cause extensive damage. Loss estimates from more frequent events that don't reach a high damage threshold are generally far less reliable. Do you want to look at local damage trends? Forget about it. For most extreme weather events, estimation methods vary over time and are not documented. Do you want to direct funding to help communities improve resilience to natural disasters where the need is greatest? Forget about it. The places experiencing the largest per capita damages depend not just on actual damages but on the different practices of local National Weather Service offices. Are you moving to a location that might be vulnerable to extreme weather? Companies are starting to provide localized risk estimates through real estate websites, but the algorithms tend to be proprietary, and there's no independent validation. We believe a few fixes could make NOAA's storm events database and the corresponding values in the larger SHELDUS database, managed by Arizona State University, more reliable. Both databases include county-level disasters and loss estimates for some of those disasters. First, the National Weather Service could develop standard procedures for local offices for estimating disaster damages. Second, additional state support could encourage local emergency managers to make concrete damage estimates from individual events and share them with the National Weather Service. The local emergency manager generally knows the extent of damage much better than a forecaster sitting in an office a few counties away. Third, state or federal governments and insurance companies can agree to make public the aggregate loss information at the county level or other scale that doesn't jeopardize the privacy of their policyholders. If all companies provide this data, there is no competitive disadvantage for doing so. Fourth, NOAA could create a small 'tiger team' of damage specialists to make well-informed, consistent damage estimates of larger events and train local offices on how to handle the smaller stuff. With these processes in place, the U.S. wouldn't need a billion-dollar disasters program anymore. We'd have reliable information on all the disasters. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University and William Baule, Texas A&M University Read more: In 2025, Tornado Alley has become almost everything east of the Rockies − and it's been a violent year Forecasters expect a busy 2025 hurricane season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching 5 tips for hurricane disaster planning with aging parents starting now, before the storms John Nielsen-Gammon receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the State of Texas. William Baule receives funding from NOAA, the State of Texas, & the Austin Community Foundation.
See - Sada Elbalad
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- See - Sada Elbalad
Kosei Fujita Wins 32 NJPW Best of the Super Jr.
Rana Atef Kosei Fujita has won the 2025 Best of the Super Juniors tournament, defeating YOH in the finals on June 1 at Tokyo's Ota City General Gymnasium. Fujita won A Block with ten points, defeating Clark Connors on the final night of block action and holding the tie breaker over Francesco Akira, Master Wato and Hiromu Takahashi. YOH won B Block with 12 points, winning on the final night against Taiji Ishimori and holding tie breakers over El Desperado and MAO. With this major victory, the rising star secures a shot at El Desperado's IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championship, marking a major milestone in his NJPW career. read more Japan Stun Spain 2-1 to Qualify for World Cup Last 16 World Cup 2022: Get to Know Confirmed Line-ups of Japan and Spain Group E Decider Saudi Arabia Bid Farewell to World Cup after 2-1 Loss to Mexico Tunisia Achieve Historic Win over France but Fail to Qualify Tunisia to Clash against France in World Cup Sports Get to Know Squad of Group D Teams in World Cup Sports Al Ahly Gift EGP 70,000 to Players After Claiming Egyptian Super Cup Title Sports Bencharki Hits First 2 Goals with Al Jazira Since Leaving Zamalek Sports Arsenal Possible Line-up for Nottingham Forest News Ayat Khaddoura's Final Video Captures Bombardment of Beit Lahia News Australia Fines Telegram $600,000 Over Terrorism, Child Abuse Content Sports Former Al Zamalek Player Ibrahim Shika Passes away after Long Battle with Cancer Sports Neymar Announced for Brazil's Preliminary List for 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers News Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly Inaugurates Two Indian Companies Arts & Culture New Archaeological Discovery from 26th Dynasty Uncovered in Karnak Temple Business Fear & Greed Index Plummets to Lowest Level Ever Recorded amid Global Trade War Arts & Culture Zahi Hawass: Claims of Columns Beneath the Pyramid of Khafre Are Lies News Flights suspended at Port Sudan Airport after Drone Attacks News Shell Unveils Cost-Cutting, LNG Growth Plan
Boston Globe
6 days ago
- Climate
- Boston Globe
30 years ago today, a destructive tornado tore through a small Massachusetts town
Advertisement There wasn't much left of the Great Barrington Fairgrounds after a tornado struck the night of May 29, 1995. RYAN, DAVID STAFF PHOTO The sheer force of the Great Barrington tornado toppled tall trees like matchsticks on May 29, 1995. RYAN, DAVID STAFF PHOTO It was the strongest tornado that the state of Massachusetts had seen since the June 9, 1953, twister that struck Worcester. During that evening of May 29, 1995, which was the observed Memorial Day that year, a cluster of severe thunderstorms had pushed into Berkshire County and triggered a tornado warning from the National Weather Service office out of Albany, N.Y. At first, the supercell that spawned the Greater Barrington tornado actually had produced a prior tornado in Eastern New York, an F2 that traversed 15 miles. As the storms pushed over the Massachusetts state line, huge amounts of moisture and wind shear from neighboring storms helped the supercell restrengthen, spawning the larger, deadly tornado. Advertisement Numerous vehicles and buildings were impaled by flying debris from trees, fences, and other timber. Multiple buildings lost their roofs or flat-out collapsed, including the local fairground, a supermarket, and a gas station. Bud Rodgers takes a breather after helping to clear trees from the yard of his neighbor, who, along with his family, escaped injury when their roof collapsed during the Great Barrington tornado of 1995. CHIN, BARRY GLOBE STAFF PHOTO Radar imagery on the evening of May 29, 1995, shows a supercell (deep red) pushing through Great Barrington. NWS The tornado was designated as F4 strength under the original Fujita scale, which had a strict and only wind threshold to measure tornado strength. An Enhanced Fujita Scale was implemented in 2007, taking into account damages to building structures and wind and there's a good chance that the Great Barrington twister would have been deemed an EF5 tornado by today's standards. The Enhanced Fujita Scale takes into account wind speed as well as building damage. The wind speed threshold is also lower than the original Fujita scale. NOAA Tornadoes form within supercell thunderstorms with wind shear, a change in direction and speed of wind as you move higher into the atmosphere. Ample moisture will make the air light enough and be lifted vertically, which can create a rotating column of air or tornado. Changes in directional wind shear as air rises vertically into the atmosphere will initiate rotation. Boston Globe Strong updrafts will tilt the tube of rotating air upright, forming into a tornado. Boston Globe Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
5 Violent EF4 Tornadoes Have Now Hit The US In 2025. Is That Unusual?
Five tornadoes rated EF4 have struck the U.S. so far in 2025 after two more were confirmed following the most recent siege of severe weather in mid-May. Tornadoes in the violent category like these makeup less than 1% of twisters this century, so how does this year's number stack up compared to the average? -Defining Violent Tornadoes: While all tornadoes are dangerous, meteorologists reserve "violent" for those with the two highest ratings on the Enhanced-Fujita scale - EF4 or EF5. That's because these strongest tornadoes are capable of devastating damage, such as crushing and throwing vehicles, leveling well-built homes, even sweeping foundations clean. These select few tornadoes are estimated to have peak winds of 166 mph or higher. -This Year's EF4 Tornadoes: Two of them struck northern Arkansas on the night of March 14. The following day, EF4 damage was found from a tornado that tracked from Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana, to Covington County, Mississippi. May 16 had two EF4s, one south of Marion, Illinois, and another that devastated parts of Pulaski and Laurel counties in southeast Kentucky. -More Than The 10-Year Average: There have been anywhere from zero to six EF4-rated tornadoes each year from 2015 through 2024, so this year is on the higher end of that range for the past decade. The average over that time is about 3 per year, which is 2 fewer than we've seen in 2025. -Two Outlier Years: Looking farther back in time to when the Enhanced Fujita scale was implemented in early 2007, there have been as been as many as 23 violent tornadoes in 2011 and 13 in 2010. Those two outlier years skew the average higher to about 5 to 6 EF4 tornadoes per year since 2007. -Violent Tornadoes Are Overwhelmingly Deadlier: From 2007 through 2024, this tiny fraction of tornadoes was responsible for more than half of all U.S. tornado deaths. 828 people were killed by EF4 or EF5 tornadoes in that time compared to 649 for all tornadoes rated EF0 to EF3, combined. -Top States: It should come as no surprise where violent tornadoes occur most often. From 1950 through 2024, the conventional Plains "Tornado Alley" states of Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa and Kansas had the largest number of violent tornadoes. Elevated violent tornado counts also extend eastward into the Ohio Valley and a southern corridor that includes Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee. -No EF5s In More Than A Decade: The last one to reach this rating hit Moore, Oklahoma, in the Oklahoma City metro area on May 20, 2013. -Why So Long?: A recent study found that may be due as much to the more stringent engineering criteria of the Enhanced Fujita scale compared to the pre-2007 Fujita scale. In essence, it appears a destroyed building had to be built beyond standard construction codes to be rated EF5 today. -An Example This Year: The photo below shows a two-story home built in 2003 that was completely swept away by a tornado that struck south of Marion, Illinois, May 16, 2025. Given nothing is left, it might make you immediately think it should be an EF5. The National Weather Service storm survey stated, "The extreme tree stubbing combined with the typical construction methods of the home support a peak wind speed rating of 190 mph". Since the home had typical construction methods, the damage was just short of what can be rated as an EF5, which contains winds greater than 200 mph. Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s. Senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman contributed to this report.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
At least 9 tornadoes hit Texas on Sunday. Map shows where all they struck
At least nine tornadoes have been confirmed in Texas following the severe storms that swept through the state Sunday. The outbreak was part of a broader pattern of dangerous weather sweeping across the nation's midsection, following a brutal round of storms that devastated multiple states just days earlier. From late Thursday through Saturday, at least 28 people were killed and dozens more injured as tornadoes and intense storms tore through parts of the Midwest and East. AccuWeather has confirmed more than 80 tornadoes, with significant damage reported in Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and Virginia. More: Heat dome may be gone, but wave persists in Central Texas as highs near 100 degrees More: The 1970 Lubbock tornado led to the Fujita scale. Then, Texas Tech created the EF-scale Six tornadoes were confirmed in the same general area along the Cross Timbers region, primarily impacting Palo Pinto and Parker counties — about 50 miles west of Fort Worth, according to the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth. Due to the storm damage, Gordon ISD and Santo ISD have closed for the week. Two additional tornadoes struck near the greater Abilene area, in Albany and Eastland, while another tornado was reported in Higgins, outside the Texas-Oklahoma border, according to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. Note: The tornado in Shackelford County is not on the map, as coordinates were not yet determined. An EF1 tornado impacted northeast of Mingus from 12:36 to 12:40 a.m., traveling 3.28 miles, uprooting large pecan trees and tearing metal from a shed; width is not determined. An EF1 tornado struck Gordon from 12:48 to 12:54 a.m., traveling 2.11 miles with a width of 995 yards, causing widespread damage including homes, barns and a high school stadium; four people were injured. An EF0 tornado passed through Santo from 1:06 to 1:07 a.m., traveling 0.95 miles with a width of 190 yards, causing tree limb damage and minor roof damage to some homes. An EF0 tornado south of Santo occurred from 1:06 to 1:07 a.m., traveling 0.43 miles with a width of 100 yards, damaging a few trees. An EFU tornado southeast of Santo was recorded by storm chasers from 1:07 to 1:08 a.m. in an inaccessible area; path length and width are not determined. An EF1 tornado hit south of Higgins from 10:21 to 10:27 p.m., traveling 1.63 miles with a width of 75 yards, causing building and tree damage before crossing into Oklahoma. A spotter-confirmed tornado was observed near Albany; details on time, path length and width are not yet determined. An EF0 tornado struck north-northwest of Eastland from 11:47 to 11:54 p.m., traveling 3.28 miles and causing minor house and tree branch damage; width is not determined. An EF0 tornado north of Lipan happened from 1:36 to 1:40 a.m., traveling 1.98 miles; width and damage details are not determined. At least 886 tornadoes have been reported across the United States so far in 2025, according to preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center. That's nearly half the record-breaking total of 1,855 tornadoes recorded last year, which surpassed the previous record of 1,814 set in 2004. In Texas, 87 tornadoes have been confirmed so far this year — already more than half of the 169 tornadoes reported in the state last year. So far in 2025, tornadoes have caused 62 fatalities nationwide. None have occurred in Texas. Here are the top 10 states with the most tornadoes per year, according to 1997-2021 averages: Texas Kansas Oklahoma Illinois Alabama Mississippi and Iowa (tie) Florida Nebraska Missouri While Texas leads the nation in total tornadoes, the likelihood of encountering one is not necessarily higher for Texans due to the state's vast size. Furthermore, most tornadoes in Texas are weak. Of the 9,890 tornadoes reported between 1950 and 2024, 77% were rated EF0 or EF1, the two lowest levels on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. (Before 2007, the Fujita Scale, or F scale, was used.) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been tracking tornadoes for decades. Our interactive map, which contains data from January 1950 to Feb. 28, 2025, pinpoints where a cyclone touched down and traces its path of destruction. This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: 9 tornadoes confirmed in Texas on Sunday. Here's where all they struck
