Latest news with #FundacaoGetulioVargas
The Star
01-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
How Trump's tariff chaos is bringing China's ‘trade circle of friends' closer
BEIJING (SCMP): There has been growing debate about whether US President Donald Trump's tariff strategy will drive a wedge between China and other Global South nations. Analysts say the opposite is happening. One example is China, facing duties of up to 245 per cent, and Brazil, where Trump's global baseline 10 per cent tariff has been imposed. The two nations have stepped up high-level engagement since the tariff chaos started. On Tuesday, China's top diplomat Wang Yi called for Brasilia and Beijing to oppose 'the law of the jungle' together and said relations were at their 'best period in history' during separate meetings in Rio de Janeiro with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and chief presidential adviser Celso Amorim. Those meetings – on the sidelines of a Brics gathering – were held ahead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's planned trip to China in May, and after Chinese officials travelled to Brazil for Brics agriculture talks and infrastructure projects in mid-April. Analysts say the American president's trade war is likely to help strengthen ties between China and Brazil – the largest developing economies in the eastern and western hemispheres, respectively. It could also drive further cooperation and give fresh impetus to joint efforts for greater clout in the global governance system. The White House's hardline approach on China could create a more 'consolidated' footing for Beijing's ties with Latin America in general, according to analysts, but the region's complex political dynamics remain a challenge. 'Brazil and China have reached a very high-level and very consolidated relationship,' said Hsia Hua Sheng, associate professor of finance at the Escola de Administração de Empresas de Sao Paulo da Fundacao Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian private higher education institution. 'The US tariff war event will just make this relationship stronger.' He said if Washington continued its restrictive position against China, prompting countermeasures from Beijing, it could create opportunities for Brazilian agricultural exporters, who could broaden their shipments to the Chinese market since Brazil and the US were competitors in agribusiness. Hsia added that Trump's tariffs could also help reroute Chinese investment into renewable energy and green manufacturing sectors in Brazil, which would benefit the largest Latin American economy's 're-industrialisation' drive. Washington has claimed that more than 70 countries wanted to start tariff talks and is reportedly planning to use those negotiations to pressure trading partners to isolate China, as the rival powers vie for support. In response, Beijing has urged countries not to strike trade deals with the US 'at the expense of the Chinese side'. Liu Ying, a research fellow at Renmin University's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies in Beijing, said she expected a big country like Brazil would try to safeguard the multilateral trading system while defending its interests. 'I do not think [Brazil] will bow to the US … or seek to compromise with the US,' Liu said. Brazil could also be expected to fight the US tariff, even if it was at the lowest end of the scale, because it was still 'unfair', according to Hsia. Lula enacted a law in mid-April empowering Brazil's federal government to impose reciprocal measures on countries or economic blocs restricting its exports. On the same day, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao discussed responses to the US tariffs with Brazilian Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin. Beijing then sought to rally Brics members and its partner states, calling on the group of emerging economies to 'jointly resist unilateral bullying'. Brazil holds the rotating presidency of Brics this year and is a founder of the bloc – along with Russia, India, China and South Africa – that has since expanded to 11 members. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Rio de Janeiro in July for the annual summit of Brics leaders. The Brics coalition has highlighted a closer partnership between Beijing and Brasilia that extends beyond trade and investment. They have worked together through Brics to reduce reliance on the US dollar – a push known as the de-dollarisation initiative – and to give developing countries more political influence in world affairs. Liu from Chongyang expected that Brazil would seek to strengthen unity with Global South nations, including those in Brics, to try to counter America's unilateral protectionist policies. According to Hsia, Brics could provide support to an alternative global trade and financial system. As well as strengthening ties with Brazil, Beijing is also trying to consolidate its relations across Latin America. The region is home to economies that share strong industrial complementarity with China but have limited trade competition, analysts from China Industrial Bank wrote in a note in January. They said China should 'actively expand its trade circle of friends with these economies'. Lula's planned trip to China in mid-May, just six months after Xi visited Brasilia, will take place during a high-profile ministerial meeting between China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. It comes during a pivotal year for the region, with four nations – Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile and Honduras – gearing up for presidential elections and midterms looming in Argentina in October. Right-wing populist leaders in Latin America – who share strategic alignment with the US – could come to power, creating obstacles for relations with China given the region's increasing importance in Trump's foreign policy. Zhou Chao, a research fellow with Beijing-based independent think tank Anbound, said Trump's tariffs might not deliver a serious blow to China-Brazil relations in the short term but it could be a different story in the long run. He said if Brazilian exporters failed to secure a sustainable market in China, given the softening Chinese consumer demand, then bilateral ties could 'naturally suffer more disruptions'. 'Brazil's right-wing pro-US forces still have a strong influence and support base, which will continue to negatively impact the further development of bilateral relations,' he said. Liu from Chongyang said the US was likely to court Latin American nations, adding there were uncertainties in particular around Chile's election in November. As Chile's left-wing President Gabriel Boric prepares for his final months in office, the polls are favouring candidates from the right and extreme right – factions historically pro-US. But Liu said it would be difficult for Washington to pull Brasilia into its orbit. 'Brazil knows where its core interests lie, where its future is and the direction of its development,' she said. 'It won't be led by the US.' She added that economic ties were strengthening between China and Brazil, especially in agriculture, infrastructure and manufacturing. China has been Brazil's top trading partner for 16 years. It accounted for 25.6 per cent of Brazil's total exports in the first quarter – more than double the 12.5 per cent of Brazilian exports sent to the US. It is seen as a complementary economic relationship, with China's industrial demand matching Brazil's farm goods, energy and minerals. And while China is in direct competition with its East and Southeast Asian neighbours on exports to the US, that is not the case with Brazil. China has also become an increasingly significant investor in Brazil in recent years, with Chinese firms taking on megaprojects such as power plants, ultra-high-voltage transmission lines and gas pipelines. However, the US remains the top single-country source of foreign direct investment in Brazil. Hsia said US trade instability could 'accelerate' planned investment between Brazil and China. Cooperation between China and Brazil continues to grow, and Brazil has pledged to 'deepen' ties in agriculture, clean energy and technology. However, Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has warned that US-China tensions could hurt Brazil if they slow down China's economy. Still, the US-China tariff war has already shifted trade flows. China has ordered some 1.8 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans for April-May while halting its US soybean orders, according to Chinese commerce ministry data. Since 2013, Brazil has outpaced the US as China's top soybean supplier, with its market share rising from 53 per cent in 2017 to 71 per cent last year. Brazil also sees opportunities in beef and aerospace after China restricted US meat imports and Boeing deliveries. 'No single country can buy as much as China buys from Brazil,' Hsia said. '[The US tariffs] just confirmed that Brazil has chosen the right way to have China as a good friend.' - South China Morning Post/ANN
Boston Globe
27-03-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
Brazil ex-President Bolsonaro will stand trial over an alleged coup plan. Here's what happens next.
What charges does Bolsonaro face? Bolsonaro will stand trial on the counts of attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage characterized by violence and a serious threat against the state's assets, and deterioration of listed heritage. Advertisement The five-justices panel of Brazil's Supreme Court ruled based on the indictment by Prosecutor-General, Paulo Gonet. His formal accusation came from a federal police investigation that placed Bolsonaro on the top of a criminal organization that had been active since at least 2021. Gonet also accused Bolsonaro of supporting a plan that allegedly included poisoning his successor, current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and killing Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. When does the trial start and what will happen? While a specific trial date has not been set, the chairman of the Supreme Court panel is expected to outline the procedural framework in the coming days. Eloísa Machado, a law professor at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas university in Sao Paulo, explained that the evidentiary phase of the criminal case, which includes defendant interrogations, witness testimony and further procedures such as expert examinations, begins. Many of those procedures will be conducted by auxiliary judges. 'Then, the rapporteur prepares a report and requests a trial date,' Machado said. 'After this stage, prosecutors and defense attorneys will present their final arguments before the court rules on whether to acquit or convict.' Bolsonaro's defense team had requested the case to be sent to the full Supreme Court, not just on the 5-justice panel, which could drag a ruling into 2026 as all 11 justices would have their say on the case. The request was denied. Advertisement Who will judge Bolsonaro? Brazil's top court is using one of its two permanent 5-justice panels to put Bolsonaro on trial. None of the five was appointed by Bolsonaro. As rapporteur of the case, justice de Moraes brought the charges to the one he sits on. The other four justices are Cármen Lúcia, considered one of the harshest on criminal cases; Cristiano Zanin, the chairman of the panel and Lula's attorney between 2013 and 2023; Flávio Dino, appointed by the leftist president in 2023 after serving as his justice minister; and Luiz Fux, the court's chief-justice between 2020 and 2022, considered a moderate. Will Bolsonaro go to jail? Brazilian criminal law mandates that arrests occur only after a final, unappealable conviction. The Supreme Court of Brazil, being the final appeals tribunal for criminal cases involving public authorities, possesses ultimate jurisdiction over Bolsonaro's case. If the former president takes any action that hampers the court's ability to deliver its ruling, such as seeking shelter in an embassy, he could be arrested before the trial ends. What has Bolsonaro said? Bolsonaro, who has been banned from running for office until 2030 for abuse of power and undermining confidence in the country's voting system, has denied wrongdoing and claims he is the target of political persecution. 'If I go to jail, I will give you a lot of work,' Bolsonaro said after Wednesday's Supreme Court's decision. Have other Brazilian presidents stood trial? Lula was convicted of corruption and money laundering by low court judge Sergio Moro in 2017, and had his sentence later upheld by a group of magistrates. He served more than a year and seven months in prison and was released after the Supreme Court changed its jurisprudence to forbid jail time for any Brazilian until all appeals are exhausted. Advertisement In 2021, the same court annulled Lula's sentence as it found Moro to be biased. Moro left his position as a federal judge to become Bolsonaro's justice minister. Michel Temer, who governed between 2016 and 2018 after Dilma Rousseff was impeached, was acquitted by a federal court in 2024 in a corruption and money laundering case. He was briefly arrested in 2019 under the accusation of profiting from fraudulent contracts between state-run Eletronuclear and companies AF Consult Ltd and Engevix during his time as vice president. Fernando Collor, who governed between 1990 and his impeachment in 1992, was sentenced to eight years and ten months in jail in 2023 for his role in a corruption scheme at then state-run BR Distribuidora. The sentence was upheld by the Supreme Court last year, but Collor is yet to be imprisoned. High-ranking military will be tried for the first time before the Supreme Court The inclusion of high-ranking military officials to stand trial in Brazil's top court is unprecedented, as the country's transition from a military dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s was marked by a sweeping amnesty for military personnel. Four high-ranking military officials who operated under Bolsonaro will stand trial. These are former Defense Minister Paulo Sérgio Nogueira; former Navy commander Almir Garnier Santos; retired Gen. Augusto Heleno, who headed the Institutional Security Office; and retired Gen. Walter Braga Netto, who served as Bolsonaro's chief of staff and defense minister. 'Four-star generals accused of plotting a coup are now likely to be convicted and punished under Brazil's democratic legal system,' said João Roberto Martins Filho, a political science professor at the Federal University of Sao Carlos and former president of the Brazilian Association of Defense Studies. 'Anyone who attempts a military-backed coup and fails could face consequences like what we're seeing now. They could end in prison.' Advertisement Associated Press writer Mauricio Savarese contributed to this report.
Euronews
07-02-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
New law in Brazil restricts smartphones in schools
A new law comes into effect this week in Brazil that will restrict students' access to their smartphones in schools. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a bill in January limiting smartphone access at schools, in line with a trend seen in the US and Europe. Phones are limited in classrooms and in the halls, but can still be used for educational purposes, with a teacher's permission, or for students who need phones for accessibility and health. Schools can set their own guidelines, such as whether students can keep phones in backpacks or store them in lockers or designated baskets. Most of Brazil's 26 states and roughly two-thirds of all schools in the country had already applied some restrictions to phone use, according to a survey last year by the Brazilian Internet Steering Committee. However, authorities struggled to enforce them due to the different rules between states and schools. One of the highest rates of phone use Brazil's Ministry of Education said in a statement Monday that the restriction aims to protect students' mental and physical health while promoting more rational use of technology. In May, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, a leading think-tank and university, said Brazil had more smartphones than people, with 258 million devices for a population of 203 million Brazilians. Local market researchers said last year that Brazilians spend 9 hours and 13 minutes per day on screens, which is among one of the world's highest rates of use. Mariana Waetge, a 13-year-old student at Porto Seguro, has owned a smartphone for five years. Being forced to stay away from her phone made her find new ways to interact with friends, improved her focus and even strengthened her relationship with her family, she told the Associated Press.
