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Reuters
11-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina inflation seen accelerating in June after May slowdown
BUENOS AIRES, July 11 (Reuters) - Argentina's monthly inflation likely ticked up to 1.9% in June, according to the median forecast of a Reuters poll, after May's rise marked the lowest monthly increase since 2020. The month of May had marked the smallest monthly increase in five years for South America's No. 2 economy, with consumer prices rising just 1.5%, data from the official INDEC statistics agency showed, as the government of President Javier Milei works to tame painful price hikes. For June, estimates from 15 local and foreign analysts ranged from 1.4% to 2.0%. Consulting firm C&T Economic Advisors said their survey showed a 2% rise in June, slightly above their May estimate of 1.8% and the official 1.5% figure, but still one of the lowest monthly rates since 2020. May's unusually low inflation was driven by factors that did not recur in June, they added. "No disinflation process is linear, so it is natural to observe some months with slightly higher inflation than the previous one," said Eugenio Mari, chief economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso(LyP). This is especially relevant "when we consider that these are the first months after the exchange rate unification and several relative prices are still seeking equilibrium," he added. For July, early analyst estimates predict a lower inflation rate than that projected for June. "The rate of depreciation of our currency has been very slow," said Aldo Abram, economist and executive director at LyP, saying this contributed to his estimates that July inflation would be lower than in June, at around 1.7%, even though July typically experiences seasonal price increases. INDEC is scheduled to publish data for June on Monday at 1900 GMT.
Reuters
10-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina monthly inflation seen at five-year low in May
BUENOS AIRES, June 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's headline inflation likely slowed in May to its lowest monthly rate in five years, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday. Consumer prices rose 2% last month, according to the average and median estimates of 24 local and foreign analysts, returning to an inflation level the country has not reached since the economy was paralyzed by pandemic lockdowns in the first half of 2020. Inflation has fallen significantly since President Javier Milei took office in December 2023, coming close to 2% in January and February before hitting 3.7% and 2.8% in March and April respectively. A May rate at or below 2%, if confirmed by the national statistics agency on Thursday, would be the best monthly rate of Milei's government. "Although the inflation data for March and April showed a slight acceleration compared to the previous months, in May a new trend begins to become evident", said Julian Orue, economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso. In mid-April, Milei's government eased Argentina's exchange rate regime, which, according to analysts, helped ensure a downward trend in inflation. "The downward trend in inflation is holding steady, despite the normal bumps that come with an economic stabilization and normalization process," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC consultancy. The analysts' projections for May inflation ranged between a minimum of 1.6% and a maximum of 2.5%. Argentina's statistics agency INDEC will release official data regarding May inflation on Thursday afternoon (1900 GMT).
