Latest news with #FutureOutputIndex
Mint
04-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
PMI: India's services exports bump may lose steam amid global economic gloom
Business momentum in India's services sector was steady in May. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 58.8 last month from 58.7 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The key highlight of the survey was the solid growth in exports of services. The New Exports Orders sub-index rose to 57.6 in May from 55.4 in April. Survey participants reported one of the strongest improvements in international demand in 19-and-a-half years of data collection. Also Read | India services activity hits three-month high in May on strong export growth; employment rises by record For manufacturers as well, new export orders rose in May at one of the strongest rates recorded in three years. Panel members remarked on favourable demand from Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the US. But here's a catch. 'In H1 2025, Asian economies have been whipsawed by Trump tariffs; growth and inflation have moderated, even as export frontloading has provided some offset," Nomura Global Markets Research said in a report dated 2 June. According to Nomura, disinflationary forces are likely to permeate across Asia, and, unlike past export downturns, this is likely to be compounded by Asian currency strength against the US dollar. Thus, Asian central banks will likely continue to decouple from the US Federal Reserve and deliver more policy easing. In its meeting this week, the Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to cut repo rates by another 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75%. So far, the central bank has cut rates by 50 bps to boost growth amid easing inflation. Relatively immune The Indian economy is more domestically driven, with consumption seen as the mainstay for growth. This makes India relatively immune to global trade shocks than Asian peers, but the problem is that consumption demand, especially urban, has been languishing lately. Companies are struggling with subdued revenue and profit growth, household incomes are muted and latest high-frequency data such as automobile sales is uninspiring. Also Read | India's exports face geopolitical woes but trade deals offer relief: RBI report Meanwhile, business confidence of Indian service providers measured via the Future Output Index recovered to 60.4 in May from April's 23-month low of 59.7. Expanded workforces, larger client bases and ongoing marketing initiatives make service providers hopeful. According to Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank, India's services export growth outperformed merchandise export growth in FY25 also, growing in double-digits. While this outperformance is likely to continue in FY26, she said some moderation in services export growth is likely with the US economy expected to slow down. That said, the manufacturing sector will be impacted more by the tariff tensions and the global growth slowdown. Also Read | Services boost India's exports to an all-time high of $824.9 billion in FY25
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada factory PMI rises in May but sector remains in contraction
By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) -Canadian manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth straight month in May as trade uncertainty led to firms shedding workers at the fastest pace since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data on Monday showed. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 46.1 in May from 45.3 in April but was stuck below the 50 no-change level for the fourth straight month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. 'With manufacturers continuing to be hit by tariffs and trade uncertainty, May saw the sector experience a further significant contraction," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "The hard to predict nature of trade policies means the outlook for production remains extremely uncertain and given the recent scale of the downturn in the sector, job losses are mounting." The employment component fell to 44.9 from 47.6 in April, marking the lowest level since June 2020, while measures of output and new orders also remained in contraction. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. 'Unsurprisingly, tariffs remain the primary source of price pressures, whilst also leading to an intensification of supply side delays," Smith said. The measure of input prices rose to 63.5 from 62.1 in April, leaving it just below the 31-month peak it touched in March, while the average lead times for the delivery of inputs lengthened for an 11th straight month. The deterioration in vendor performance was linked to port congestion and challenges at customs. The Future Output Index edged up to 50.9 from 50.4 in April, with some firms hopeful that government policies could help stabilize the macroeconomic environment, but was well below the survey's historical norm, S&P Global said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party retained power in an April election, has proposed sweeping changes to boost economic growth. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
01-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian factory PMI hits near five-year low on tariff uncertainty
TORONTO, May 1 (Reuters) - Canadian manufacturing activity contracted in April at the steepest rate since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as the uncertain nature of U.S. trade policy weighed on production and new orders. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 45.3 last month from 46.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. "The uncertainty regarding the future direction and implementation of tariffs was again especially damaging, with markets characterised by hesitancy and delayed decision making," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "Reflective of the unpredictable environment firms are operating in, capital goods producers again reported especially steep falls in output and new work." The output component fell to 42.7 from 45.7 in March and the new orders measure was at 41.2, down from 42.3. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. The Bank of Canada says that a long-lasting global trade war could trigger a significant recession in Canada and lead to inflation temporarily rising above 3%. The measure of input prices remained at an historically elevated level and average lead times for the delivery of inputs worsened for a 10th straight month. "Firms reported delays at ports and at customs points, which led to a further lengthening of supplier delivery times despite a noticeable reduction in demand for manufacturing inputs," Smith said. "Prices also rose steeply, especially for metals products." The Future Output Index rose to 50.4 from 45.1 in March as some firms pinned hopes on a more stable market environment in a year's time, but the measure still reflected a subdued level of confidence, S&P Global said.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian factory PMI hits near five-year low on tariff uncertainty
By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) -Canadian manufacturing activity contracted in April at the steepest rate since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as the uncertain nature of U.S. trade policy weighed on production and new orders. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 45.3 last month from 46.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. "The uncertainty regarding the future direction and implementation of tariffs was again especially damaging, with markets characterised by hesitancy and delayed decision making," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "Reflective of the unpredictable environment firms are operating in, capital goods producers again reported especially steep falls in output and new work." The output component fell to 42.7 from 45.7 in March and the new orders measure was at 41.2, down from 42.3. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. The Bank of Canada says that a long-lasting global trade war could trigger a significant recession in Canada and lead to inflation temporarily rising above 3%. The measure of input prices remained at an historically elevated level and average lead times for the delivery of inputs worsened for a 10th straight month. "Firms reported delays at ports and at customs points, which led to a further lengthening of supplier delivery times despite a noticeable reduction in demand for manufacturing inputs," Smith said. "Prices also rose steeply, especially for metals products." The Future Output Index rose to 50.4 from 45.1 in March as some firms pinned hopes on a more stable market environment in a year's time, but the measure still reflected a subdued level of confidence, S&P Global said. Sign in to access your portfolio
Hindustan Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Canadian factory PMI hits near five-year low on tariff uncertainty
TORONTO, - Canadian manufacturing activity contracted in April at the steepest rate since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as the uncertain nature of U.S. trade policy weighed on production and new orders. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 45.3 last month from 46.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. "The uncertainty regarding the future direction and implementation of tariffs was again especially damaging, with markets characterised by hesitancy and delayed decision making," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "Reflective of the unpredictable environment firms are operating in, capital goods producers again reported especially steep falls in output and new work." The output component fell to 42.7 from 45.7 in March and the new orders measure was at 41.2, down from 42.3. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. The Bank of Canada says that a long-lasting global trade war could trigger a significant recession in Canada and lead to inflation temporarily rising above 3%. The measure of input prices remained at an historically elevated level and average lead times for the delivery of inputs worsened for a 10th straight month. "Firms reported delays at ports and at customs points, which led to a further lengthening of supplier delivery times despite a noticeable reduction in demand for manufacturing inputs," Smith said. "Prices also rose steeply, especially for metals products." The Future Output Index rose to 50.4 from 45.1 in March as some firms pinned hopes on a more stable market environment in a year's time, but the measure still reflected a subdued level of confidence, S&P Global said.
