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Business Standard
05-08-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India PMI hits 15-month high at 61.1 as manufacturing jumps, services hold
India's Composite PMI: Manufacturing PMI climbs to 16-month peak; services edge higher as strong demand and new orders boost growth New Delhi The HSBC India Composite PMI edged up to 61.1 in July from 61.0 in June, marking a 15-month high and reflecting mixed trends in the private sector. The index, which measures monthly changes in combined manufacturing and services output, was boosted by a sharp rise in new orders and strong demand across both goods and services. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. Services PMI hits 11-month high The services PMI saw its strongest growth in more than a year, rising to 60.5 from 60.4 in June. This marginal increase was driven by strong demand, new client onboarding, and robust advertising campaigns. The finance and insurance sectors were the primary drivers of growth. Export orders improved, with Indian firms securing contracts from Asia, Canada, Europe, the UAE, and the US. Manufacturing at 16-month high in July The manufacturing sector grew sharply in July, with the PMI rising to a 16-month high of 59.1, up from 58.4 in June. The improvement was driven by strong gains in new orders and output, though business sentiment and hiring momentum showed signs of weakness. Growth drivers Business activity remained strong during July, with new orders and output expanding at a quicker rate. Sales growth across both sectors reached its fastest pace in 15 months. This was supported by strong demand for Indian goods and services. Hiring slows, business confidence dips However, not all indicators were upbeat. Hiring slowed, with job creation growing at the weakest pace in 15 months. Business confidence also dipped, as the Future Output Index fell to its lowest level since March 2023. While both input costs and selling prices rose faster in July, the overall inflation pressures increased. What does it mean? A composite PMI of 61.1 indicates a strong activity in the private sector. It shows that businesses are receiving more orders and producing more goods. It also shows that consumers and companies are spending, thereby fuelling growth. High PMI reflects positive optimism, signalling that firms expect demand to surge. Easing price pressures suggest some room for the Reserve Bank of India to continue supporting growth. The bottom line While the Composite PMI shows strong growth, softening business sentiment, subdued hiring, and rising inflationary pressures are likely to weigh on the momentum moving forward.
Business Recorder
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Manufacturing cools as HBL PMI hits 10-month low of 50.5 in June
KARACHI: Pakistan's manufacturing sector showed signs of cooling as the HBL Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 in June, down from 51.1 in the previous month. While the reading remained above the no-change threshold of 50 for the 14th consecutive month, it signalled a notable slowdown in momentum due to weakness in new order volumes. This was the first instance of consecutive new order contractions. To align with softer production needs, firms proactively reduced both employment levels and input procurement. Despite the slowdown, there were encouraging developments on the export front. Commenting on the report, Humaira Qamar, Head Equities & Research – HBL said, 'After hitting a 10-month low last month as per the Central Bank, exports showed signs of revival. New export orders rose for the first time in three months, with manufacturers attributing the rebound to improved quality standards.' Manufacturers also reported greater control over outstanding workloads. Work Backlogs declined for the sixth straight month, underlining the ongoing softness in demand. Looking ahead, optimism remains cautiously intact, as the Future Output Index continued to trend well above neutral, pointing to expectations of stronger activity in the year ahead. However, sentiment dipped for a second month in a row, weighed down by concerns over increasing taxation and geopolitical uncertainty. Qamar pointed out that the current PMI levels suggest a slower pace of GDP growth than PBS estimates. She further stated, 'We believe the current PMI readings imply a GDP growth rate lower than the provisionally estimated 2.7% for FY25, seeing potential for downward revisions. Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance's 4.2% GDP growth assumption in formulating the FY26 budget appears optimistic in our view, raising the risk of revenue underperformance.' Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Mint
04-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
PMI: India's services exports bump may lose steam amid global economic gloom
Business momentum in India's services sector was steady in May. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 58.8 last month from 58.7 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The key highlight of the survey was the solid growth in exports of services. The New Exports Orders sub-index rose to 57.6 in May from 55.4 in April. Survey participants reported one of the strongest improvements in international demand in 19-and-a-half years of data collection. Also Read | India services activity hits three-month high in May on strong export growth; employment rises by record For manufacturers as well, new export orders rose in May at one of the strongest rates recorded in three years. Panel members remarked on favourable demand from Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the US. But here's a catch. 'In H1 2025, Asian economies have been whipsawed by Trump tariffs; growth and inflation have moderated, even as export frontloading has provided some offset," Nomura Global Markets Research said in a report dated 2 June. According to Nomura, disinflationary forces are likely to permeate across Asia, and, unlike past export downturns, this is likely to be compounded by Asian currency strength against the US dollar. Thus, Asian central banks will likely continue to decouple from the US Federal Reserve and deliver more policy easing. In its meeting this week, the Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to cut repo rates by another 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75%. So far, the central bank has cut rates by 50 bps to boost growth amid easing inflation. Relatively immune The Indian economy is more domestically driven, with consumption seen as the mainstay for growth. This makes India relatively immune to global trade shocks than Asian peers, but the problem is that consumption demand, especially urban, has been languishing lately. Companies are struggling with subdued revenue and profit growth, household incomes are muted and latest high-frequency data such as automobile sales is uninspiring. Also Read | India's exports face geopolitical woes but trade deals offer relief: RBI report Meanwhile, business confidence of Indian service providers measured via the Future Output Index recovered to 60.4 in May from April's 23-month low of 59.7. Expanded workforces, larger client bases and ongoing marketing initiatives make service providers hopeful. According to Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank, India's services export growth outperformed merchandise export growth in FY25 also, growing in double-digits. While this outperformance is likely to continue in FY26, she said some moderation in services export growth is likely with the US economy expected to slow down. That said, the manufacturing sector will be impacted more by the tariff tensions and the global growth slowdown. Also Read | Services boost India's exports to an all-time high of $824.9 billion in FY25
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada factory PMI rises in May but sector remains in contraction
By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) -Canadian manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth straight month in May as trade uncertainty led to firms shedding workers at the fastest pace since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data on Monday showed. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 46.1 in May from 45.3 in April but was stuck below the 50 no-change level for the fourth straight month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. 'With manufacturers continuing to be hit by tariffs and trade uncertainty, May saw the sector experience a further significant contraction," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "The hard to predict nature of trade policies means the outlook for production remains extremely uncertain and given the recent scale of the downturn in the sector, job losses are mounting." The employment component fell to 44.9 from 47.6 in April, marking the lowest level since June 2020, while measures of output and new orders also remained in contraction. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. 'Unsurprisingly, tariffs remain the primary source of price pressures, whilst also leading to an intensification of supply side delays," Smith said. The measure of input prices rose to 63.5 from 62.1 in April, leaving it just below the 31-month peak it touched in March, while the average lead times for the delivery of inputs lengthened for an 11th straight month. The deterioration in vendor performance was linked to port congestion and challenges at customs. The Future Output Index edged up to 50.9 from 50.4 in April, with some firms hopeful that government policies could help stabilize the macroeconomic environment, but was well below the survey's historical norm, S&P Global said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party retained power in an April election, has proposed sweeping changes to boost economic growth. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
01-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian factory PMI hits near five-year low on tariff uncertainty
TORONTO, May 1 (Reuters) - Canadian manufacturing activity contracted in April at the steepest rate since shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as the uncertain nature of U.S. trade policy weighed on production and new orders. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 45.3 last month from 46.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. "The uncertainty regarding the future direction and implementation of tariffs was again especially damaging, with markets characterised by hesitancy and delayed decision making," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "Reflective of the unpredictable environment firms are operating in, capital goods producers again reported especially steep falls in output and new work." The output component fell to 42.7 from 45.7 in March and the new orders measure was at 41.2, down from 42.3. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit with hefty U.S. duties. Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed on some U.S. goods. The Bank of Canada says that a long-lasting global trade war could trigger a significant recession in Canada and lead to inflation temporarily rising above 3%. The measure of input prices remained at an historically elevated level and average lead times for the delivery of inputs worsened for a 10th straight month. "Firms reported delays at ports and at customs points, which led to a further lengthening of supplier delivery times despite a noticeable reduction in demand for manufacturing inputs," Smith said. "Prices also rose steeply, especially for metals products." The Future Output Index rose to 50.4 from 45.1 in March as some firms pinned hopes on a more stable market environment in a year's time, but the measure still reflected a subdued level of confidence, S&P Global said.
