Latest news with #G10
Time of India
16 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee may rise to 84/$ on US trade deal: BofA
MUMBAI: An imminent trade deal with the US is seen as a positive catalyst for the rupee, which is expected to strengthen to 84 levels by the end of 2025, according to Bank of America. Other positives include soft oil prices, a benign current account deficit, and RBI's growth focus. In an interview with TOI, Adarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia forex & rates strategist at BofA, said the rupee would gain vis-a-vis the greenback partly because of the weaker dollar environment, but it will not appreciate as much as some of the G10 currencies and perhaps some emerging market currencies. "Generally, we're more constructive on the macro outlook for India... especially if you get this bilateral trade deal done with the US and now you have policy aligned as well. So not just the central bank cutting rates but govt supporting growth as well," said Sinha. Sinha sees capital flows continuing into India despite rising US interest rates. "FDI is a longer-term story... I wouldn't say it's going to be a near-term swing factor," he said. He added that while foreign debt inflows increased over time, equity flows still dominate. On the dollar, Sinha said he is bearish. "A lot of investors, both in Europe as well as in Asia... by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với sàn môi giới tin cậy IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo were very long US assets, but they didn't hedge their forex risk or they maintained very low hedge ratios. .. If we start to see the real money community... hedge their US asset exposure more aggressively, then I think that's the next leg lower in the US dollar." Sinha does not see any rush toward de-dollarisation, although central banks have been diversifying their foreign assets for some time. "Yes, central banks might be moving away from the US dollar, they're probably buying gold, but it's happening at such a gradual pace that it doesn't really affect the short-term dynamics of the dollar." "When you talk about de-dollarisation in terms of the global role of the US dollar, I don't see signs of that changing in a quick way... at least over the next five years, if not a bit longer, the dollar will be the dominant global currency," said Sinha. For him, the real sign of de-dollarisation would be a meaningful decrease in the share of the US dollar in global trade invoicing and payments. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee is expected to strengthen on US trade deal and benign oil prices
Mumbai: An imminent trade deal with the US is seen as a positive catalyst for the rupee, which is expected to strengthen to 84 levels by the end of 2025, according to Bank of America. Other positives include soft oil prices, a benign current account deficit, and the Reserve Bank of India's growth focus. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now In an interview with TOI, Adarsh Sinha, Co-Head of Asia FX & Rates Strategist at Bank of America, said the rupee would gain vis-à-vis the greenback partly because of the weaker dollar environment, but it will not appreciate as much as some of the G10 currencies and perhaps some emerging market currencies. 'Generally, we're more constructive on the macro outlook for India… especially if you get this bilateral trade deal done with the US and now you have policy aligned as well. So not just the central bank cutting rates but the govt supporting growth as well,' said Sinha. Sinha sees capital flows continuing into India despite rising US interest rates. 'FDI is a longer-term story… I wouldn't say it's going to be a near-term swing factor,' he said. He added that while foreign debt inflows increased over time, equity flows still dominate. On the dollar, Sinha said he is bearish. 'A lot of investors, both in Europe as well as in Asia… were very long US assets, but they didn't hedge their FX risk or they maintained very low hedge ratios… If we start to see the real money community… hedge their US asset exposure more aggressively, then I think that's the next leg lower in the US dollar.' Sinha does not see any rush toward de-dollarisation, although central banks have been diversifying their foreign assets for some time. 'Yes, central banks might be moving away from the US dollar, they're probably buying gold, but it's happening at such a gradual pace that it doesn't really affect the short-term dynamics of the dollar.' 'When you talk about de-dollarisation in terms of the global role of the US dollar, I don't see signs of that changing in a quick way… at least over the next five years, if not a bit longer, the dollar will be the dominant global currency,' said Sinha. For him, the real sign of de-dollarisation would be a meaningful decrease in the share of the US dollar in global trade invoicing and payments.
Globe and Mail
a day ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Business Brief: What Trump and our housing market have in common
Good morning. Today we're talking bond yields – and we're going to make it fun. Sound dubious? Stick with me. I'm a financial reporter and columnist, and it is my personal mission to make this easy. Even better: You'll learn why Elon Musk is now trashing the U.S. government. What's more fun than another White House feud? But first today's headlines: Trade: U.S. President Donald Trump signs an order hiking steel and aluminum tariffs to 50 per cent, with the new rate taking effect today Trade: Canadian steel tycoon Barry Zekelman backs Trump, takes aim at Carney in escalating trade war Trade: The U.S. envoy to Canada held out hope for the Canadian auto sector despite talk of cutting it out of the American market Today: While investors awaited today's Bank of Canada rate decision, the Canadian dollar outperformed eight G10 currencies In Montreal, a research institute is building a network of Indigenous AI professionals Red alert, red alert, it's a catastrophe: Long-dated U.S. Treasuries are yielding roughly 5 per cent, and Jamie Dimon worries the bond market could 'crack.' Translation: Since early mid-May, the interest rate on a popular form of U.S. government debt has hovered around 5 per cent annually, a level seen only one other time since the 2008 global financial crisis. Dimon, the long-time chief executive office of J.P. Morgan Chase, the largest American bank, is so worried that he's gone public with fears that the system could break. This matters for all sorts of reasons, but let's start with something close to home. In the U.S., residential mortgages are locked in for 30 years, and mortgage rates are priced off longer-dated government bonds for that reason. At the moment, new mortgages cost close to seven per cent annually, and that's slowing home sales while also sapping income from homebuyers, who have to put more money toward their mortgage. A 5-per-cent interest rate also makes it more expensive for the U.S. government to borrow money – and that burden is huge because America is up to its chin in debt. The U.S. government is expected to run a US$1.9-trillion deficit this year – yes, really – and the annual deficit is projected to keep growing over the next decade. Why the drama now? The U.S. has run deficits every single year since 2001, so they're not exactly new. But Trump's proposed budget bill is projected to raise the deficit. For all his talk about getting the government's finances in order, Trump's plan would actually add an additional US$3-trillion through 2034, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This came to light during budget negotiations in May, and that spooked bond investors. Interest rates, or yields, move in the opposite direction of prices, so as some investors sold U.S. government bonds because they felt the debt was too risky to hold, the bond prices traded down, and the yields rose (but you already knew that). Why is Dimon worried? The U.S. budget bill has been approved by the House of Representatives but is still working its way through the Senate. When Dimon spoke out on Friday, it seemed like a tactic to talk some sense into Senators. For decades, the U.S. has been treated as the adult in the room when it comes to financial markets. (Yes, even after the U.S.-led 2008 global financial crisis that nearly sank the financial system...) If investors start to treat the U.S. as a risky borrower, it could reorder global finance, and that could be very, very messy. For one, the U.S. dollar is currently treated as the bedrock of the financial system, but its value could fall if investors decide to buy fewer Treasury bonds, which are priced in U.S. dollars. That would make it harder for the U.S. to issue debt, which means the government would have trouble funding social programs like Medicare, which provides health care to elderly people. And on and on it goes. But what about Elon? He's a controversial figure, and he's been run out of Washington, so his opinion arguably doesn't matter. But Trump still thinks highly of him, which is why it was jarring to see Musk trash the president's budget bill yesterday. 'I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore,' he wrote on X. 'This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.' He added that the bill will 'massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!) and burden America citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt.' Still struggling to follow? Here's a housing market analogy: The U.S. bought a house it couldn't afford, but instead of downsizing to a condo, it wants to buy an even bigger property and pray the market rebounds. Ask a Canadian who bought a home in 2022 how that worked out for them. Should you sell your U.S. stocks? Is now the time to buy a house? Our reporters have answered 42 crucial questions that readers have asked again and again (and again). Pay out: Meta signs a 20-year deal with a nuclear plant to meet energy demands for AI Pay off: What does it cost to raise a kid? That depends on how much parents earn Playoffs: The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers are facing off for the Stanley Cup again. Here's everything you need to know Global stocks climbed as higher U.S. duties on steel and aluminum took effect amid the trade war that has rattled the markets for much of the year. Wall Street futures and TSX futures were in positive territory after North American markets closed higher yesterday. Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.42 per cent in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.19 per cent, Germany's DAX gained 0.66 per cent and France's CAC 40 advanced 0.58 per cent. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed 0.8 per cent higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6 per cent. Th Canadian dollar traded at 72.93 U.S. cents.
Indian Express
2 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Chill in ties, window closing for Canada invitation to G7 summit
With less than two weeks to go for the start of the G7 Summit, being hosted by Canada in Kananaskis in Alberta from June 15-17, India is still to receive an invitation to the gathering. If the invitation window closes, Delhi's absence at the summit will be the first break since 2019. Barring 2020 when the G7 huddle was cancelled by the US, the host country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has attended every summit since 2019. The chill in Delhi-Ottawa ties has not gone unnoticed. The two countries downgraded diplomatic ties after Justin Trudeau, the then Canadian Prime Minister, set off a political storm in 2023 when he alleged 'potential' involvement of Indian government agents in the killing of a Canada-based Khalistan separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India rejected the charges as 'absurd' and 'motivated'. Usually, G7 host countries invite some countries as guest countries or outreach partners. Canada has so far invited Ukraine and Australia. It has not released names of other guest countries. France was the host of the G7 leaders' summit in Biarritz in August 2019 — after Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, this was the first invitation. Before that, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had attended the G8 summit five times between 2004 and 2014 — the grouping became the G7 in 2014 after Russia's suspension, and subsequent exit, over its annexation of Crimea. In 2020, US President Donald Trump called the G7 a 'very outdated group' and said he would like to include India, Australia, South Korea and Russia in the grouping of the largest advanced economies. Trump had suggested that the Group of 7 be called 'G10 or G11', and proposed that the grouping meet in September or November 2020. But due to the pandemic and the US elections, that did not happen. Modi attended the G7 summit in 2021 via virtual mode, and then attended the summits in Germany in 2022, Japan in 2023 and Italy in 2024. This May 25, Canada's new Foreign Minister Anita Anand had a phone conversation with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. It was the first official political-level contact between Delhi and Ottawa after Mark Carney won the Canadian elections and became Prime Minister, raising hopes for a reset in ties. Anand said Canada looked forward to rebuilding ties with India as part of an effort to diversify trade away from the US — even as the RCMP investigation into the killing of Canadian Hardeep Singh Nijjar continued. In an interview, referring to Nijjar's killing, she said: 'We are certainly taking it one step at a time. As I mentioned, the rule of law will never be compromised, and there is an ongoing investigation regarding the case that you mentioned.' 'At the same time, we are looking forward to continuing to build this partnership, and we're looking forward to that as a government – it's not just me…It's part of the process of diversifying our relationships and building relationships around the world,' she said. Going by the timelines for the G7 summit — the fact that very little time is left for an invitation and security and liaison teams usually travel to the venue ahead of the Prime Minister's visit — there is a slim chance of Modi attending the G7 summit even if the invitation comes now. But if an invitation is extended, there is a possibility that a minister or a government representative may attend. A call on that will only be taken after the invitation is received. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Canadian dollar outperforms eight G10 currencies as investors await BoC rate decision
The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday but was performing better than all the other Group of 10 currencies, as oil prices rose and investors awaited a Bank of Canada interest rate decision this week. The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent lower at 1.3725 per U.S. dollar, or 72.86 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3702 to 1.3742. All the other G10 currencies posted bigger declines as the U.S. dollar clawed back some of its recent broad-based losses. 'With the BoC meeting ahead, investors are watching Governor (Tiff) Macklem for signals on rate cuts,' said Kevin Ford, FX & macro strategist at Convera. 'Sticky core inflation and an OK Q1 GDP have tempered expectations for further easing.' The Canadian central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday as policymakers await further news on an economy that grew faster than expected last quarter, with at least two more cuts likely this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a roughly 75 per cent chance the BoC stays sidelined on Wednesday. The central bank left rates on hold in April for the first time since its easing campaign began in June last year. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose as the war in Ukraine ramped up and Iran was set to reject a U.S. nuclear deal proposal. U.S. crude oil futures were trading 1.7 per cent higher at $63.58 a barrel. Wildfires burning in Canada's oil-producing province of Alberta have affected more than 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, or about 7 per cent of the country's overall crude oil output, according to Reuters calculations. Canadian bond yields rose across a steeper curve, with the 10-year up 4.4 basis points at 3.270 per cent.
